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raz-0

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Everything posted by raz-0

  1. raz-0

    Precious metals

    I wasted my time so you don't have to. It was stupid. Basically it is Phase 1 - collapse.. PM worthless. Phase 2 - endurance... PM worthless. Phase 3- mumble mumble ... PM worthless Phase 4- recovery. PM can be sold again! Your corpse can now use PMs to resume your previous lifestyle! Which is kind of stupid IMO. I mean he's right in the mechanism, which is that PMs decouple your money from fiat currency, and that is their value. But he never gets very far into when and why that is of value. Here's some of mine, non exhaustive: -flight. There are cleaner shirts in the closet, and you want to put one of them on. If the smugglers aren't taking your local fiat currency, you need something to sell to get out. If they will, you may not be able to spend the local currency on the other end (embargo, no trust in it, etc). In that case PMs are man portable, fairly dense stores of wealth. -black markets. Historically things seldom break down totally and forever. The emphasis is on the KI in TEOTWAYKI in the real world. But historically, the consumer never loses. They get what they want, it just may have a cost. If people want something that the official sanctioned order of things can't get them, you get black markets. When dealing with black markets, you may need to conduct business in something other than the local currency. You can use PMs to buy things or more likely secure whatever the black market's trusted currency is. -banking without banks. Look at less developed nations, or nations with much more dynamic range with regards to wealth and poverty. PMs in the form of jewelry and luxury items are often a very common store of wealth when you don't want to trust the banks, or simply don't have banks. Anything we do today that uses loans may need something like PMs to be done in a less organized and automated society. -insurance. Mostly of the variety of I didn't see that coming. PMs can be a hedge against having prepared for the wrong systemic failure because it is a universal fiscal translator. That does come at a premium. -flexibility and freedom during the make pretend period. We are in the US. Lets face it, we are at the top of the pyramid, and if/when that ceases to be the case, we will pretend like nobody's business that everything is fine and normal. PMs, since they have use outside of being money, will likely have loopholes that will allow you to conduct some forms of business in an advantageous manner even within the system that is still hobbling around. What all the preppers and goldbugs seem to never want to say is that it's pretty much guaranteed you will lose money on precious metals. You are paying now to have them on hand later. But someone without TEOTWAYKI pressure there will be someone taking 10-20% up front to get you metal, and 10-20% at the back end to get rid of your metal. You will likely lose 25% on average doing anything but barter unless you are a fine gold/silver smith and can add value to it via your craft. That premium may buy you access to something in the future if things go badly. But realistically, if I have enough money to buy me a barrel of oil, if I turn it into PMs, I probably have enough to buy 80-90% of a barrel of oil. If I turn it back into cash at market rates, I probably have enough to buy 60-75% of a barrel of oil. From a financial standpoint, it is a significant upfront investment that can't easily be abandoned. Myself, I like to compare PMs to copper, oil, and chicken, and do my financial game planning on that historically to determine if I have "enough". (and I don't own a lot. maybe enough for a good bribe from some low level bureaucrat) But when I bought mine, a pound of boneless skinless chicken breast at costco was $1.99. Now it is $2.99. Based on metals prices, $1.99 of metals then should buy $2.98 of chicken now. A barrel of oil should be around $125, and a pound of copper should be about $5.40. It's at $4.40 (also to illustrate how you get screwed over by transitioning metals to cash, buying a pound of copper ingot runs $25-35 despite the market value. You can get industrial quantities at about $3 a pound).
  2. raz-0

    Precious metals

    I don't disagree. Like I said, I have not put a lot into PMs. (oops hadn't hit post, so I say that below).
  3. My prediction is more will be done to prop up ammo prices than component prices. I suspect primer prices will drop off when demand for ammo falls. Mainly because unlike the rest of it, primers involve significantly more skilled manual labor. They will be happy to be making a profit having reloaders pay to keep their primer manufacturing capacity on hand for the next crunch when they can ratchet up the margin on them. Primarily by selling them as part of loaded ammo. It may need to see some of the new ammo manufacturers (assemblers?) fail first though.
  4. We are definitely in a sell everything to somebody mode rather than a sell something to everybody mode. Even after expansion of capacity. Primers are still in short supply, and i don’t think there will be much easing of that until the ammo they are selling sits on shelves longer than it does now. I’m fine with profit. But with this kind of consolidation, we are a couple of decisions from the 2d being screwed over or priced for only the wealthy. It’s a sector where an adversarial relationship between the manufacturers and the customer base isn’t a good situation.
  5. If you want 9mm or 223 yes, they can usually sell you something. Outside of that there’s more issues.
  6. What the hell do you mean the ammo price increases weren't about over demand? We basically doubled ammo purchases. Is there a single domestic manufacturer of ammo or components that didn't expand production? We still aren't meeting demand fully. One of the quotes form the article is this "If Blinder were correct, then one would expect lots of new productive capacity and new entrants into this market." We saw both. The price of components has dropped back down from the peak. The price of powder has dropped back down form the peak. In general at least. The things really choking further expansion are primers and manufacturing capacity. If you shoot common calibers, you have probably noticed there is more available at off peak prices. However, if you shoot less common stuff, you are still hurting because the production lines are making what they will sell the most of. As for new entrants, we are seeing new imports. We have Palmetto looking to bring russian ammo production to the US by purchasing the machinery and importing it. I've seen people sporting significant purchases of primer brands I have never heard of in my life. So we somebody somewhere is participating in new markets even for primers, the hardest nut to crack in the supply chain for ammo manufacturers. I'm not a fan of the massive consolidation that has occurred, mainly because we are basically two bad management decisions away from being seriously screwed. But I'd argue that a lot of what we are seeing is the fact that regulatory pressures and government activism are driving some of the behavior. Every public firearms related stock has to ask themselves how to cope with activist funds trying to screw them either independently or at the behest of state legislation on investment funds belonging to the state. Stock buybacks and building war chests would seem a natural response to that threat.
  7. I mean have you looked at rent lately? It’s gotten insane. One of my friends was paying $1700 a month for a one bedroom. And they just published prices for the new year which puts the same units at $2100 a month. At $15/hr you either have to accommodate a kid’s schedule, or get lucky in finding someone in a situation where they don’t have to cover typical housing and food costs.
  8. QPQ nitrided carriers are awesome. They clean up easy and the finish can't flake off and the finish wears better than phosphate. For bolts I keep various spares about just in case, but I just buy JP bolts at this point. They are super consistent dimensionally, they last as well as anything, and they stand behind them.
  9. Yeah except that also applies to the non mim parts. SA had a spate of slide crack at stress risers because they had metallurgical problems. The issue isn't mim the issue is QA. I mean ruger knows their shit inside and out with casting. Ruger's issues tend to be with engineering and process on new stuff, but they largely work once a new product is sorted out. And I can't recall their casting ever being an issue.
  10. konica-minolta toner if you need such things (their factory blew up, and that was always going to suck, but the supply chain is slowing down the rebuild)). printers serviced in general. cisco switches are way screwed as mentioned previously. Many other brands as well. Wireless access points are getting scarce. video conferencing appliances and larger room scale hardware for same. usb-c docking stations. oil filters as mentioned above... stupidly marked up if available at all. furniture - i got a new bedroom set in October. That took a month to get here.... except for the dresser.... that got pushed to November, then January, now they are saying April. For something ordered in September. primers (slightly improved, but still bad) powder (more improved, but still bad) CPUs (this has gotten a lot better) graphics cards (this has gotten nothing but worse) There's always some paper product it is a PITA to get. The price of bacon sucks... I wish it had gone up just 20%. I think you can only manage that if you swap the good stuff for the cheapest of crap bacon. Winter coats for kids were a cluster fuck this year. Shopping mid September there was almost no stock, and very limited variety. It looked like last years leftovers plus one brand that got a bunch of inventory through on total crap jackets. More started showing up later, but damn. It took nearly a month to find my kid a coat that wasn't total trash. Most places had everything on the shelves to make it not look empty. Swimsuits still being on the rack in October? wtf.
  11. Every life is valuable. Heck.. since they are oppressed theirs are more valuable than yours.. just lay down and die already. I mean that's pretty much what california sherifs said to do... lay back and think of england.
  12. raz-0

    Mossberg 930

    I've got one. It's got issues. I personally never had an issue with it cycling light loads. It is, however, REALLY easy to get it to jam in a manner that needs tools to clear while reloading it. The way the foregrip is mounted makes it a pain to set up for quad loads. I just had it take a dump mid stage too many times in 3 gun. I've got about $1000 total into the gun trying to make it run. I've been much happier with my stoeger m3k.
  13. raz-0

    SA-35

    I mean it's not an opinion. Here s a pic of the new gun next to a BR9 next to a WW2 FN hi-power. That's just what a hi-power looks like. I mean it was designed by JMB after he made the 1911. It's a kind of cousin, but it's not a mash up of a hi-power and 1911.
  14. raz-0

    SA-35

    How does it look like a 1911 and hi power had a kid? It looks a lot like a regent BR9 with a nicer finish and safety. maybe slightly cleaner machining. It looks like a hi-power.
  15. Have things been getting better for gun owners in NJ? The answer is no. Do we have any more risk than before? Maybe, but Sweeny wasn't our friend. He would sell every one of us down the river for something he wanted.
  16. longer barrels get you more velocity. They also add weight which dampens recoil. They tend to have a larger sight radius, which means more feedback about aiming. Some people may find this to feel generally easier to shoot, but some don't and get annoyed by the greater amount of visible shake. Other things factor into that too like blade width and notch width and such. Most ammo and loads are developed for a 4"=6" barrel. Most everything I own as far as pistols go is 4.25"-5".
  17. DC's good cause law was struck down at the circuit level, thus no relief for other circuits unless your legislature was feeling like they really wanted to get ahead of things.... which I have never seen happen with RKBA stuff, so.... We've already been down the road of radius bans on things. If it looks like a ban, it is a ban and will be struck down. I doubt we will see it, and if we do it will die in short order. Thinking about it, I have come up with what I suspect we will see. ALL signage counts. No requirements it be legible, clearly posted, in a language you can read, or whatever. Violation of the signs will be a felony and strip you of your 2a rights. It's like the texas lawsuit law, but without the money changing hands. There is no government ban, just enough prohibited places that you can't do much of anything and carry, and the government isn't even defining them. Probably see it coupled with a law making it illegal to store a firearm in an unattended vehicle as well. No idea how that would fare in court, most of the country it's all just trespass laws that aren't felonies.
  18. Did it for many years. My main advice is rent in a big complex. The leases are drawn up by paranoid lawyers, and they know that in other places lease stipulations that forbid guns increases the responsibility of the landlord to provide for security. The lease didn't forbid guns, but it thought it was cute forbidding explosives. Ammo is an orm-d consumer product, not an explosive. Either they were not as clever as they thought, or it was deliberately misleading to make the client happy or to give them something to threaten problem tenants with. Additionally, they had a means to manage tenants refusing them entry without notice which they followed properly all but one time (they handed the keys to a town/state inspector and he through he would let himself in unannounced. I was home and he found himself going ass over teakettle down the steps when the door was made to remain close with authority). But I had an interior closet that I put a safe in and put a locking doorknob on. As others have stated, there are a lot more security options you can add on top of that.
  19. That was the assumption at the time. The current belief is that it actually came down to Roberts being the problem. Once we see the opinion(s), we'll have a better idea, but Kennedy retiring was made contingent on a pro RKBA replacement more or less, and roberts contributions ot a number of rejections of RKBA cases seems to back up he's the problem. We will see.
  20. There’s no further input at this point, but the court will be doing stuff in chambers. The ruling will likely come in July.
  21. I read that. I don't necessarily agree with their take wholly, but they did bring up something interesting about Breyer that I didn't notice when listening. I took his remarks to be more of "how would you draw up guidelines that would prevent blood in the streets!?!?! YOU CANT!" Mostly because he's an asshole who believes the government can do whatever they want. But perhaps it was like Sotomayor... he was looking to steer the inevitable away from what was being discussed to and argued behind closed doors towards something more moderate. I think they might both have been trying to get the plaintiff to agree that some minimal measure would be sufficient. That would suggest either strict scrutiny or a fairly "dangerous" legal test is being proposed as the conclusion.
  22. Unless the court gives them a time frame to comply, we have constitutional carry until they pass a new law. If they give them a grace period we have the old law until the deadline and presumably a new one then.
  23. Well that was interesting. The usual NY/NJ argument of "if any government did it, we can do it now regardless of how wrong it may be" defense. And wanting to remand it so they can retry it or find new data or whatever, just remand it please. I think the plaintiff made some really good arguments regarding constitutionality and the nature of a constitutional right. I think he got across the point that there is no other enumerated, incorporated amendment that simply does not exist for any citizen without getting a permission slip first.
  24. This is fun. She's not accepting that the court revised the question and wants to go back to the lower court because the question asked that she already admitted was very dangerous, wasn't part of the lower court litigation. So far it's the left leaning judges beating up on the plaintif, and the right leaning beating up on the defense.
  25. It depends on what the lowers are complete with. My fancy 3 gun rifle lower would cost about $600 to reproduce right now as close as possible. About $450 if I made some fiscally strategic substitutions. But I can build out a $40 poverty pony with the cheapest stuff for about $120. If you just want to stash some lowers, but some lowers cheap.
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