Jump to content

Howard

Members
  • Content Count

    4,168
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    7
  • Feedback

    100%

Howard last won the day on October 27 2017

Howard had the most liked content!

Community Reputation

526 Excellent

About Howard

  • Rank
    Howard - NJ Escape
  • Birthday June 26

Contact Methods

  • Website URL
    http://dad12s.wix.com/howard#

Profile Information

  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    St John's, FL
  • Interests
    Photography
  • Home Range
    RTSP, Shongum

Recent Profile Visitors

3,292 profile views
  1. https://www.wsj.com/video/the-secret-to-why-a-tesla-costs-so-much-hint-batteries/65F3A21D-0837-4DA6-B739-612124815603.html Interesting video on Tesla battery
  2. Some food for thought from today's WSJ: Investors Get Burned After Betting on Electric-Car Metals Markets like stocks and oil have rebounded this year, but cobalt and lithium continue to fall Brine pools from a lithium mine in Chile. As investors piled into metals used in smartphones and electric cars, including lithium and cobalt, miners boosted production—contributing to a drop in prices PHOTO: IVAN ALVARADO/REUTERS 77 COMMENTS By Amrith Ramkumar Feb. 17, 2019 7:00 a.m. ET Investors who piled into electric-car metals can’t seem to catch a break. Markets from stocks to crude oil have staged a comeback in 2019 after a tumultuous stretch at the end of last year. But cobalt and lithium—metals that are key to making the rechargeable batteries used in electric vehicles and smartphones—are missing out on the rebound across risky assets. Cobalt prices have fallen more than 30% in 2019 to their lowest level in two years, according to figures from commodity-price provider Fastmarkets through Feb. 6. Meanwhile, a lithium price index published by Benchmark Mineral Intelligence dropped for the 10th consecutive month in January to a multiyear low. The descent in both markets is a reversal from 2017, when investors sent prices soaring as they anticipated a wave of demand would lead to supply shortages. The slump is the latest sign that once-hot trades can quickly change as major players in a sector shift their behavior in ways investors can’t predict. BludgeonedShares of several smaller cobalt and lithium companies have tumbled in recent months.Source: SIX %First CobaltLithium AmericasCobalt 27Nemaska LithiumJan. ’18MarchMayJulySept.Nov.Jan. ’19-100-90-80-70-60-50-40-30-20-100102030First Cobalt xFeb 4, 2019x-85.9% Miners rushed to take advantage of the excitement in battery metals, leading to steady production of the commodities, which caused prices to tumble in 2018. Slowing growth in China and uncertainty about the country’s subsidy policies for electric vehicles further hurt sentiment. China is the dominant player in the supply chain for electric-car batteries. Battery-metals prices have fallen even as global sales of electric vehicles jumped 64% in 2018 from a year earlier, albeit from a low base, according to data tracker EV-Volumes. Both the U.S. and China logged nearly 80% increases in sales growth, although electric vehicles accounted for just 2% and 4% of their markets, respectively. Anxiety about the future rates of adoption and unknowns surrounding battery technology continue to loom over the sector. The Secret to Why a Tesla Costs So Much (Hint: Batteries) One of the biggest things preventing Elon Musk from releasing a mass market electric vehicle comes down to the vehicle's blessing and curse: its lithium-ion battery. We break down the science and the cost. “Investors want certainty,” said Chris Berry, founder of House Mountain Partners LLC, a New York-based adviser to battery-metals companies and investors. “It’s just going to take some time for that to come about.” The tumble in cobalt prices in particular caught investors on the wrong foot. With lithium, some investors expected oversupply to cool the metal’s rally because it is relatively abundant in South America and Australia. But market watchers had projected supply challenges in the Democratic Republic of Congo to support cobalt prices. The country accounts for about 70% of global supply, and geopolitical uncertainty there was a factor some bet would lead to a supply shortfall. Losing PowerPrices of cobalt continue to tumble amid asteady supply of the metal, used inrechargeable batteries.Source: Fastmarkets .a pound2017’18’190510152025303540$45 Lithium LullLithium prices have fallen lately as morecompanies attempt to increase output.Benchmark Lithium IndexSource: Benchmark Mineral Intelligence Jan. ’17JulyJan. ’18JulyJan. ’19200220240260280300320340360 Instead, cobalt output from companies such asGlencore PLC and China Molybdenum Co. was robust. Meanwhile, production from small miners also ramped up, with some of their workers using their bare hands to extract the metal without proper safety equipment, according to previous reporting by The Wall Street Journal. Citigroup projects refined cobalt production will exceed demand this year and annually through 2022. “There’s just so much extra supply coming from all the project expansions in the DRC,” said George Heppel, an analyst at commodity research firm CRU. “It’s been a bit of a roller coaster the last few months.” In ExcessAnalysts estimate refined cobalt production will top demand each year through 2022.Source: CitigroupNote: All figures after 2017 are estimates .thousand metric tonsSupplyDemand2017’18’19’20’21’22’23020406080100120140160180 Shares of several small publicly traded cobalt- and lithium-exploration companies and producers are down 50% or more in the past year. First Cobalt Corp. has tumbled 83%, whileLithium Americas Corp. has dropped 57%. The challenges facing less established players were illustrated last week when Nemaska Lithium Inc., a small Quebec-based producer that secured a nearly $80 million investment from SoftBank Group Corp. last year, said it needs an extra $283 million to finish its mine and meet the conditions of agreements with a private-equity firm and its lenders. Those agreements were used to generate funds for the roughly $830 million project. In a sign of how quickly money rushed into the sector, Nemaska Chief Executive Guy Bourassasaid in an interview with the Journal last year that he had never heard of SoftBank before the Japanese conglomerate invested in Nemaska. Since the company announced SoftBank’s investment, Nemaska shares have fallen more than 75% to about 25 cents each. Nemaska couldn’t be reached for comment. DwarfedLithium total supply is projected to exceed demand in the next several years.Source: CitigroupNote: All figures after 2017 are estimates .thousand metric tons2017’18’19’20’21’22’2301002003004005006007008009002023x572.136 thousand metric tons Write to Amrith Ramkumar at amrith.ramkumar@wsj.com Appeared in the February 19, 2019, print edition as 'Electric-Car Metals Let Down Investors Investors Burned on Electric-Car Metals.'
  3. While the parts and expense part are spot on, the rest is either nonsense or pure conjecture. Who knows what batteries will be around or cost in 20 years - way beyond our ability to guess. Much more likely they will cost less, not more, as volume goes up and new technology arrives. I know that Prius batteries used to be a small fortune, now they are cheap and they rebuild bad ones. That said, hybrids are actually the worst of both worlds, and I am not a hybrid hater having owned three of them. You have both the problems of ICE and the problems of electric. Couple that with crazy electronics and software to make the two work together and you have a recipe for huge repair bills down the road. As for your analysis that says old cars will stay on the road that seems unlikely once electric gets to some reasonably high percentage. The problem is gasoline will become very expensive as more and more refineries shut down due to lack of demand. That does not even factor in that there could be increased taxes to drive people away from gasoline. Bottom line though is who really knows. We will have to wait and see.
  4. Just had on the Lame Stream ABC evening news and they are talking about the shooting in IL today talking about the military assault style baby killing laser sights the gunman had on his weapon. Sure the anti fool will now want to ban lasers on guns.
  5. 100,000 is a tiny number in a what is basically a commodity business. You need much bigger numbers to allocate fixed costs. Further, they don't have the distribution network - they are really a very small company trying to convince people otherwise. But even if we accept that they cost more to buy (right now) the life cycle cost should be much lower due to the simplicity and lower maintenance costs. Think how many parts an internal combustion engine has versus and electric motor. I have no skin in this game and really don't care one way or the other - but this is coming and the rate of adoption is accelerating.
  6. Just curious, but what are the government subsidies that Tesla is reliant upon? Are you talking about the same ones that GM got for the Volt or that any company that produced initial hybrids got? Remember these are already phasing out for Tesla and will be gone soon. I think they actually turned a profit two quarters in a row now. I am no Tesla fan, but to claim they are getting some special treatment seems non genuine.
  7. You are comparing low volume nitche products to mass market developed products. The batteries are expensive, but the actual drive train is cheaper to produce and maintain. When you look at the life cycle costing electric will kill ICE. You don't have to believe, but just wait and watch.
  8. I think you guys that think this is going to take 20 years or more are kidding yourselves. It is going to happen a lot faster than that. Electric cars are much cheaper to produce and maintain. There are a tiny number of parts compared to an ICE or hybrid. Hybrids are actually the worst of both worlds, and I am not a hybrid detractor having owned three of them. But think about it, they are probably one of the most complicated forms of propulsion out there effectively combining and ICE with an electric and having lots of technology to make the two work together. Very expensive to build. I have a friend that has a new Tesla, not the model3, one that costs around $80,000. She can get about 300 miles out of it and when she goes to one of the charging stations on the highway charges it in about 20 minutes. Sure it is longer than a fuel up, and less places to fill up right now - but that will change. Yes, Tesla will likely not exist in 2-5 years, either they will fail or someone will buy them. It is just a matter of time till one of the big auto makers takes over this market. As for trucks and big SUV's, well electric makes more sense and will actually work better in them. Think about how they have to get inventive cramming batteries into small cars, at big pickup has lots of room to put batteries. Just think if they increased the height of a truck by say 3" they could come up with a battery pack that fit in the bed of a truck (or under it). That would be a huge battery without taking up needed space. Yes a lot will change with these vehicles, but anytime you introduce new technology it takes a while for the bugs to be worked out, the infrastructure developed and the early adopters to work out the bugs. We are nearing the inflection point where EV is set to take off.
  9. When I sold my house in Morris County in June it was a total shit show with the fire inspection. They could not tell me what was required. My home was built in 1973 so battery smoke detectors was what was required, but we added a large addition in 1990 that was approved with the wired system as part of a central alarm system. When I asked what we had to have in June they were puzzled. They finally decided that we should have battery units throughout, and had me install battery powered units in the rooms that were already covered by the central alarm - how stupid. They claimed that a new owner might disable to central system, but that owner could also pull the batteries from the units I was installing. We had a fire extinguisher on the kitchen counter but they insisted it had to be mounted on the wall. The inspector said they fully know that immediately after inspection it will be taken down and put on a counter. He then went on to say they don't want people using fire extinguishers, they want them to get out of the house immediately and call the fire department. He also said when the CO detectors go off they don't want people to open doors and windows. They want them to exit and leave the house sealed so when they come they can track down the source. Further went on to say that they think it is stupid to require extinguishers because most people have no clue how to use them, which is probably true.
  10. The state has decided they know what is best for you and are mandating you throw away your property and buy new stuff - ARG! Homeowner update for 2019: Please be advised that as of January 1, 2019, the state of New Jersey requires that battery powered single station smoke alarms be replaced with a ten year sealed battery powered smoke alarm. While the State of NJ acknowledges that there will be an additional cost for these units, they determined that the increase was warranted to account for safety. These new units are not required to replace AC-powered smoke alarms or multi station alarms.
  11. I am shocked that place did not burn down decades ago. In the 1980's I made several calls there as a ChlorRep responder when I was a plant engineer for a Chlorine manufacturer. The place struck me as the biggest fire hazard I had ever seen. They made paper there from recycled newspapers and magazines. They had rooms filled with huge piles of magazines and newspapers just waiting to be digested and processed. Paper is a great source for fire, and they had mountains of it. Further, their manufacturing process was, in my mind, far from ideal.
  12. I agree with you, I don’t take them apart on a regular basis, only when there is an issue. If it ain’t broke don’t fix it. Matches are typically 200-300 rounds in my neck of the woods and I’ll shoot one maybe two a week. As for cleaning I often use non-chlorinated brake cleaner, it is cheap and does an amazing job. But every few thousand rounds it’s atill a good idea to take the striker out and clean and inspect and same goes for the extractor. Function checking is good but no substitute for actually putting a few rounds through it. I would never should a match with a gun I worked on and did not get to fire, and definitely not one that I would carry and might have to use in a life and death situation.
  13. Can shit happen sure, but not likely with the parts in a Glock.
  14. Taking a Glock totally apart is quite different than tearing down an engine. You are talking about thirty parts versus a thousand or so. I took the slide totally apart to take the extractor out to check it out and swap it out to see if it might have been the problem. Also need to do this to clean out the firing pin channel periodically. When you shoot them a lot in competition they get very dirty. Took the frame apart to swap out the spring that holds the magazine in place as that could have been a cause of the problem. I know what I am doing as I have taken the armorers course and have done this on many Glocks. They are very simple to work on, and very easy to put back together correctly.
  15. I was having feed failures at USPSA matches with my Gen4 Glock 35 for two months. At times it would be one or two failures in a match, then it went up to one or two on a stage then would be fine. One Stage it became bang, rack, bang rack, bang rack, bang rack. Then it worked fine the next stage. I fully stripped the darn thing and found nothing wrong. Cleaned it so it was like new, still no fix. Even tried swapping parts from another Glock. No luck. Turns out all of my mags seemed to have gone bad at once. Not 100% certain yet if it is the feed lips or the springs. The lips are the correct opening, but they may just be flexing. The springs do seem a little weak, but I just can't see all of them that have been purchased at different times going bad at once. Some are 15 round, while others are 15+4. But I know it is the mags as a friend lent me his and I have not had a single failure in the last three matches.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information