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2021 Housing Market Crisis

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9 minutes ago, JackDaWack said:

Unless I was selling a house in a hot market, I wouldn't be buying one. At least you could offset the purchase price with the sale. 

But its similar to buying stocks on the high swing. Price are projected to stay high at least for the next year. 

Can i live with you for a bit? Haha. Unfortunately i dont have much of a choice, rebting is essentially throwing money away so in the long run even buying high is a better investment. I dont ever plan on selling it either as I hope to turn it into an investment property for future renters. 

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14 minutes ago, Cheflife15 said:

Can i live with you for a bit? Haha. Unfortunately i dont have much of a choice, rebting is essentially throwing money away so in the long run even buying high is a better investment. I dont ever plan on selling it either as I hope to turn it into an investment property for future renters. 

Its like the ammo market right now. If ya need it then ya gonna pay for it. Unfortunately. I totally understand the renting aspect. Shit, I lived at home and saved my money until I was 30 cause renting made absolutely no sense to me. Unlike most my friends who made a dash for apartments after college. 

I would careful researching any homes current market value vs historical, just to get a sense of what the home may be worth in a year or two when all this crazy stops, or worse. 

 

When we bought our house the sellers took a 30% hit from when they bought it at the high market in 2006. 

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1 minute ago, JackDaWack said:

Its like the ammo market right now. If ya need it then ya gonna pay for it. Unfortunately. I totally understand the renting aspect. Shit, I lived at home and saved my money until I was 30 cause renting made absolutely no sense to me. Unlike most my friends who made a dash for apartments after college. 

I would careful researching any homes current market value vs historical, just to get a sense of what the home may be worth in a year or two when all this crazy stops, or worse. 

 

When we bought our house the sellers took a 30% hit from when they bought it at the high market in 2006. 

Yeah im currently in the process of doing those things. Luckily 2 very good friends of mine are realtors so im hoping to jump on something before it hits the market to avoid bidding wars. The most frustrating thing about this is I've seen shitholes listed at 30 to 40 k more than what they were purchased for earlier this year. I dont need a big place so most of the properties were looking at are "only" 15 to 20 k more, which is still less than renting. 

 

Im still trying to convince the fiance what this amount of money would get is in nc or Texas !!

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9 minutes ago, JackDaWack said:

When we bought our house the sellers took a 30% hit from when they bought it at the high market in 2006. 

And that's what will probably happen for the people who bought this last year. Mortgage rates at record low levels, and as we all know (well, maybe not all), people buy "payments", not "houses". Low rates push up prices, but that will end soon.

If you want to buy, I'd wait a little longer. Once the eviction moratorium and foreclosure moratorium end at the end of this month, landlords and owners will be dumping houses that they haven't been paying for since March. Landlords will NEVER collect past due rents, and will probably just dump the losing investment.

Hell, I saw a week or two ago, there over $400 million in utility bills unpaid last year. Not only are people not paying their mortgages, they're not even paying their utilities, due to the moratorium on shut-offs.

That's all going to change soon....

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it's not universal and it's driven by pockets

 

without mtg, debt is now 25% of income which has happened 3 other times and each time, major correction.  Now the intangibles and externalities that matter here are the fed, cheap liquidity, and other forms of payment.  That said, this will become an issue and housing will suffer when it happens.  We're keeping our powder dry to buy something down south when it hits and it's going to

 

 

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14 minutes ago, RUTGERS95 said:

it's not universal and it's driven by pockets

 

without mtg, debt is now 25% of income which has happened 3 other times and each time, major correction.  Now the intangibles and externalities that matter here are the fed, cheap liquidity, and other forms of payment.  That said, this will become an issue and housing will suffer when it happens.  We're keeping our powder dry to buy something down south when it hits and it's going to

 

 

The problem with your plan for most people is that they have to sell their current house to purchase one elsewhere. If the market sucks then unloading will be a problem. Especially in NJ where there really isn’t a need to justify the taxes/cost when most people are discovering they can work from home.  

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2 hours ago, Cheflife15 said:

As someone whos trying to buy a home right now ill tell you it's close to impossible to pay fair price on anyhing. It's a sellers market for sure. I feel like im going to get stuck holding the bag regardless. 

THERE were 2 homes on my street up for sale....not forclosed on. one the asking was 236k, the other the asking is 290'ish k. the lower priced one sold after a few weeks. i dunno what they got. heard a couple from north jersey bought it. the more expensive one's still up. been on the market for a few months now. both of these homes are nice enough to be worth the asking prices if they were in any other town than lindenwold........

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2 hours ago, Cheflife15 said:

As someone whos trying to buy a home right now ill tell you it's close to impossible to pay fair price on anyhing. It's a sellers market for sure. I feel like im going to get stuck holding the bag regardless. 

Indeed. Debating selling mine and moving out of NJ. If you're not selling a home or you've sold one, you're paying out the nose. 

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4 hours ago, ChrisJM981 said:

Debating selling mine and moving out of NJ. If you're not selling a home or you've sold one, you're paying out the nose. 

Anyone considering selling in the next few years, should consider selling soon, when the prices are up. When all this financial shenanigans of the pandemic money finally causes it's damage, and foreclosures/evictions ramp up, you'll wish you sold at the high. Go rent something for a year or two and let the dust settle.

Housing prices in my neighborhood were moving basically side ways the last 6 years. This past year, they increase 10% - 20%. The last few houses that sold, sold for OVER list price.... It's nuts... and these people put very little down, so if prices reverse when rates go up this year, they'll be immediately underwater.

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I guess this fits the statements made by some realtors. "Buy now or be forever priced out of the market".

....."Between record-low mortgage rates (thank you Federal Reserve), Congress' fiscal stimulus checks, record debt-fueled demand, and extremely low supply, the housing market entering 2021 is in bubblelicious territory, surpassing levels not seen since the 2006/7 housing bubble. 

Of course, surging home prices mean that millennials can't afford to buy as this has pushed affordability to a 12-year low.

Bloomberg, citing a new report from Attom Data Solutions, said homebuyers in the fourth quarter had to spend at least 30% of their wages to afford the average American home, the largest share of any quarter since 2008. 

Thanks to the Fed, which has been on an MBS buying spree, purchasing more than $100 billion in mortgage-backed notes in November - borrowing costs are now below 3% for a 30-year loan, have spurred a buying frenzy, driving up prices across the country as bidding wars for homes erupt amid shrinking supply, as per a new Goldman Sachs report.

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On 1/2/2021 at 5:23 PM, Sniper said:

Anyone considering selling in the next few years, should consider selling soon, when the prices are up. When all this financial shenanigans of the pandemic money finally causes it's damage, and foreclosures/evictions ramp up, you'll wish you sold at the high. Go rent something for a year or two and let the dust settle.

Housing prices in my neighborhood were moving basically side ways the last 6 years. This past year, they increase 10% - 20%. The last few houses that sold, sold for OVER list price.... It's nuts... and these people put very little down, so if prices reverse when rates go up this year, they'll be immediately underwater.

This what the wife and I are debating.  Definitely intent on moving out of NJ this year.  We were hoping to wait until the summer/fall to put our house on the market but now we're toying with the idea of listing early, and high, and seeing if anyone bites.  

Definitely need to sell at, or above, what we paid and that would be easy to do right now.  If we list in the spring and get an offer we may not have finally decided where we're going!  PA would be an easy move for us allowing both of us to keep our current jobs.  But PA might not be far enough from the madness.  If we end up going any farther, we'd have a lot to work out and would need to rent for awhile. 

Not looking forward to moving twice.

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4 minutes ago, Shepherd9 said:

We made the list.  Maybe need to sell sooner rather than later.  

The house two doors over from me went pretty quickly.  I don't know what it sold for yet, but there were tons of showings and returns with contractors for project quotes.  I can't wait to find out.

Edit:  Looks like it sold for 1.3% under asking price.  The interior hadn't been touched since 1975.

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47 minutes ago, Shepherd9 said:

This what the wife and I are debating.  Definitely intent on moving out of NJ this year.  We were hoping to wait until the summer/fall to put our house on the market but now we're toying with the idea of listing early, and high, and seeing if anyone bites.  

That's what we did when we sold our last house in 2011 in Monmouth County. We knew we were going to downsize (after the kids left) in 2013, and I was watching house prices continue to fall after the last housing bust in 2009. Talking to some realtors I knew back then, they said either go now or hang in for 10 years for the market to rebound. Prices were falling like 10% a year at that point. If I stayed, I would have had to start replacing stuff, as it was coming up on replacement cycle time (roof, HVAC, windows, driveway, etc.), and I wasn't going to put money in when prices were dropping.

So, we decided to test the water, and put the house on the market at the price we wanted, and we sold it for what we wanted. Then, we went and rented for two years to wait for the bottom. Saved a ton of money doing that. We found our existing house towards the end of 2013.

I just wished I made that jump a year earlier, in 2010, would have saved even more.

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On 1/4/2021 at 2:48 PM, Malsua said:

Me too.  The hot market needs to stick around to May and I'm good. 

Its not going anywhere anytime soon. I was just outbid on a small townhome by 5k a month ago and its looking like it will happen again today. Again, this is 5k on top of inflated listing pricing of about 20 to 30k. My realtor friends say this will be going on until at least 2022. 

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