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82% Of Americans Say They Couldn't Afford $500 Emergency Thanks To COVID-19

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54 minutes ago, JackDaWack said:

So how do you determine how it has "changed" with out examining at least the last 5-10 years smartypants?

When did the Covid lockdowns start? Why does it take 5-10 years to do a comparison? How about a Before-After comparison?

If you would read the COMPLETE article at my OP,  instead of jumping in mid-thread, a lot of these questions of yours, would be answered.

2 hours ago, Redeye65 said:

from what my investments/401k have been doing... Up up up, I am feeling pretty good about the economy.

If congress passes the almost one trillion aid package they're talking about, it will probably juice the market again, and stocks will continue up, just like in the Spring.

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6 hours ago, Sniper said:

Wrong again. The country went back into recession this past February, before Covid hit. The economy started having financial issues back in the Fall of 2019. Go ahead, Google it.... I'll wait.

Where's the recovery from the current recession? Recoveries come AFTER a recession hits.

Did you forget there was an official recession announced in February?

Here, I did the work for you. See Google works, you should try it sometime:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-08/it-s-official-nber-says-record-u-s-expansion-ended-in-february

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/us-recession-started-in-february-researchers-say

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/08/business/economy/us-economy-recession-2020.html

the writing was on the wall in  feb,,,,,,,

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12 hours ago, Sniper said:

When did the Covid lockdowns start? Why does it take 5-10 years to do a comparison? How about a Before-After comparison?

If you would read the COMPLETE article at my OP,  instead of jumping in mid-thread, a lot of these questions of yours, would be answered.

 

I dont have any questions. I made an observation on data in this thread you clearly ignored. 

Your headline and article is misleading based on the before data.. pure clickbait. 

Why would you look at data before, 1 2 or even 5 years? Well, how else do you determine patterns or trends? 

Really? 

So a majority of Americans couldn't afford a $500 emergency before covid, the data posted suggest it was already nearing 70% in 2018 for a $400 dollar emergency, AND Increasing annually.

Those are irrefutable facts, and don't at all align with your thread title. Most people accounted for who couldn't handle a financial emergency post covid couldn't handle one pre covid either. 

 

 

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Back to the original point. When I lived up in NJ, (over 60 years), there were more times than not having extra money to stash. Every time we had a little extra cash, something else changed. We were constantly on the black/red border in our checking account. States like NJ and others have some sort of radar that sees us when we get some money. Get a tiny raise? Insurance goes up. Get some money stashed for Christmas gifts, something else robs it away. It was rough. Cost of living raises are bs! They are never enough.

Yaz mentioned that a $500 emergency room visit is almost impossible because they don't have the cash. Now I know the point is to show the evil, I don't know any emergency room in NJ or even here in TN that would not take an emergency, especially a child and hold a fee over your head. But that's another story.

Over the years, my game plan was to stash a few bux away even if it meant $20 a week. The best thing you can do is be strict with your money. We always had at least a checking and savings account. We even had a Christmas Club no matter how small. (They even have those any more)? Then we also had the all so exciting, "Money Envelope"... 
So why a savings account? They are useless. Ever hear someone say they can live off the interest in their savings account? A bs story that has been around forever. Go look at any interest gain even if you have 6 digit numbers in a savings account. Best be spent or invested elsewhere.
Back to a savings account. I call it an invisible wall. Today with online banking, you, for the most part, should never have to go to the bank. In my case, that would suck because the nearest bank is1.5 to 2 hrs away.
But what we have is all our money goes direct deposit into a checking account. We pay all our bills from it. Then we try move money to the savings account at the end of every month. Couple hundred or more. The 'invisible wall' has to be enforced by your good habits. Build that wall! lol. You should never try touch the money in the savings account. Its there for emergencies, maybe a vacation or a holiday. It can be done.

Yaz are right. We can buy expensive doo-dads, go out to eat, etc. But then complain we have no emergency money. No matter who you are, that is on you! IF you are so red/black borderline in your check book every month, things MUST change. Anything you can push into a savings account is a good thing. Deposit, enter it and don't keep looking at it. It grows fast.

Envelope store coming up.

For my short stint in real-estate, I had clients that thought they'd never be able to afford a house. They trusted me enough where I sat down and devised a 'budget' for them. Not this BS Quicken crap either. So here is what you do and it's worked each and every time I helped someone.

Devise a personal "48 week budget"..... your new budget year is no longer 52 weeks!

- Get yourself some graph paper or if you are good with spreadsheets, use your 'puter.
- Get out ALL your expenses. ALLLLLLLLL of them! Write each down on a separate line.
- Take annual totals and divide by 48 weeks. Sounds weird right? No... Not really. We need to see how much you pay a year for each item and none may be the same each month. Car insurance for instance came due over 9 months when I was in NJ... Today, semi or quarterly.
Add them up and divide as mentioned. The amount you come up with is how much money that is necessary each month by the end of 48 week year. Whether you have a particular bill due or not, you must put that amount in and not touch it. Again, you must be strict or this will not work.

Ex:
Car Insurance is $1200 a year. You must put in $100 a month for it to be paid on time.
Utilities... $1800
Grocery average.... $1200
Car gas, average pocket money, etc...
When all done, take your total family annual net income and divide it into a real year or 12 months. This will give you an idea what is left over each month after your bills will be paid.. Take that money and transfer it to savings. For the pocket money, you can either draw it from your atm or like we do, take cash back at grocery store of about $40-$60... We each take $20 for our pockets and the rest go into the notorious envelope. Date and upgrade totals on the envelope. Then stick it in the safe and never touch it unless needed. 

The 48 week budget always works unless you are not making enough money to cover it. Then you better cut back on your bad habits. Hell, in NJ we use to get pizza or dine out once a week. There were times we could not even afford a pizza.

So why 48 weeks and not 52? Its a 'safe guard' I worked into the budget. Essentially, if this budget works for you, you end up with 4 weeks of free paychecks. That's where your free money comes from. You can push more money to savings, start and ira or whatever, but again, do not take it for granted.
Since I've created this, we've never been short, we can eat out without feeling guilty and we almost always push money to the savings account. It's not about the interest accrued. Its that 'invisible wall' that will help you keep your hands off! If you find you have quite a bit left over. Don't blow it. Add a couple hundred to your mortgage payment or start paying down your credit cards. 
If you are good with a spreadsheet, put it all in there complete with the formulas to tabulate any numbers.

Good luck! Hope this helps some folks. If nothing else, try it on paper and see if it benefits you.
 

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4 hours ago, JackDaWack said:

I dont have any questions. I made an observation on data in this thread you clearly ignored. 

 

4 hours ago, JackDaWack said:

Those are irrefutable facts, and don't at all align with your thread title.

Observations aren't facts, they are YOUR opinion. But if you want facts, this is how it's done.

....."Nearly 40 percent of Americans would struggle to cover an unexpected $400 expense, according to a new report by the Federal Reserve — a stark reminder of many people's financial insecurity even amid solid economic growth. "Relatively small, unexpected expenses, such as a car repair or replacing a broken appliance, can be a hardship for many families without adequate savings," the researchers found."

Notice, the link comes from the Federal Reverse study, NOT someone's opinion or clickbait. These are researched facts.

4 hours ago, JackDaWack said:

Why would you look at data before, 1 2 or even 5 years? Well, how else do you determine patterns or trends? 

So a majority of Americans couldn't afford a $500 emergency before covid, the data posted suggest it was already nearing 70% in 2018 for a $400 dollar emergency, AND Increasing annually.

Also notice, what I posted is from a study back in mid 2019, not 5 or 10 years ago.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nearly-40-of-americans-cant-cover-a-surprise-400-expense/

4 hours ago, JackDaWack said:

Your headline and article is misleading based on the before data.. pure clickbait. 

Wrong again, it's a perfect comparison between what was going on the direct year before Covid hit, and post Covid. Who cares what was going on 5 - 10 years ago, this article was about how Covid has affect the immediate economy.

The percentage rising from 40% in 2019 to 82% in 2020 is very clear. Just because you don't agree with it, or don't like the timeline, doesn't make it wrong, except in your "Perception of Reality".

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1 minute ago, Sniper said:

 

 

The percentage rising from 40% in 2019 to 82% in 2020 is very clear. Just because you don't agree with it, or don't like the timeline, doesn't make it wrong, except in your "Perception of Reality".

The report was published 2019, the numbers are form 2018. 

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2 minutes ago, Sniper said:

 

Observations aren't facts, they are YOUR opinion. But if you want facts, this is how it's done.

....."Nearly 40 percent of Americans would struggle to cover an unexpected $400 expense, according to a new report by the Federal Reserve — a stark reminder of many people's financial insecurity even amid solid economic growth. "Relatively small, unexpected expenses, such as a car repair or replacing a broken appliance, can be a hardship for many families without adequate savings," the researchers found."

Notice, the link comes from the Federal Reverse study, NOT someone's opinion or clickbait. These are researched facts.

Also notice, what I posted is from a study back in mid 2019, not 5 or 10 years ago.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nearly-40-of-americans-cant-cover-a-surprise-400-expense/

Wrong again, it's a perfect comparison between what was going on the direct year before Covid hit, and post Covid. Who cares what was going on 5 - 10 years ago, this article was about how Covid has affect the immediate economy.

The percentage rising from 40% in 2019 to 82% in 2020 is very clear. Just because you don't agree with it, or don't like the timeline, doesn't make it wrong, except in your "Perception of Reality".

Wow, what did we move there like 5 goal posts? lol.

An observation is an observation, its not an "opinion".  I didn't provide a single opinion in this entire thread. 

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1 minute ago, raz-0 said:

The report was published 2019, the numbers are form 2018. 

BUT 82% of Americans cant afford an emergency BECAUSE OF COVID. 

 

I was simply pointing out that 82% is much MUCH lower due to COVID. Something the OP has no interest in acknowledging because it doesn't paint a apocalyptic picture or jive with his purpose for posting this thread. 

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5 minutes ago, raz-0 said:

The report was published 2019, the numbers are form 2018. 

Very good... that's how studies work. Collect data and report. Original report came out in May 2019, not in 2013.

If you read the report, you would have also seen this:

The Federal Reserve revised this report on January 30, 2020,

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17 minutes ago, JackDaWack said:

An observation is an observation, its not an "opinion".  I didn't provide a single opinion in this entire thread. 

ob·ser·va·tion
/ˌäbzərˈvāSH(ə)n/
  •  
    a remark, statement, or comment based on something one has seen, heard, or noticed.
     
    14 minutes ago, JackDaWack said:

     Something the OP has no interest in acknowledging because it doesn't paint a apocalyptic picture or jive with his purpose for posting this thread. 

    FYI, that's called an "opinion".

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32 minutes ago, Sniper said:

Very good... that's how studies work. Collect data and report. Original report came out in May 2019, not in 2013.

If you read the report, you would have also seen this:

The Federal Reserve revised this report on January 30, 2020,

I did see that. It has numbers from 2013-2018 in it. That really has nothing to do with your argument. A recession has a distinct set of criteria to provide meaning to the term in reference to the economy.  

A recession is two consecutive quarters of fall in GDP. By that measure, we were not in recession until end of Q2 2020 according to the BEA's numbers. 

You seem to be concerned with the quality of people's finances in that, which is not relevant to the term. Frankly,  in tough times people lean on credit because they have no other choice and in a growing economy they have some faith in, they lean on credit because they feel comfortable that they can pay it off. The fact the average person has shit financial intelligence or discipline makes the state of individual finances a very unreliable indicator of the state of the economy. You seem to think it is.

I would point out another metric, personal bankruptcy, which is down in 2020, and 2019, and 2018. 

https://abi-org-corp.s3.amazonaws.com/articles/aacer-nov-2020-nationwide-bankruptcy-filings-by-state-and-jurisdiction.xlsx

That being said, the economic indicators are that GDP has grown massively in Q3 over Q2 of 2020. If we get two consecutive quarters of growth I'm sure some people will say it is a recovery, but the reality is without an increase in employment and individual income, it is not. 

I like to view the economy as two separate economies. What I call the ledger economy and the real economy. The ledger economy doesn't really get spent on real things. It's investment dollars that never really leave the bank ledgers and just get swapped in columns. It doesn't tend to do things like create inflation for food and such.  The real economy are things like wages, retail sales, etc. where money chases actual labor, or some product that was mined or farmed or processed from something mined or farmed. I.e. finite things you can't mint infinity more of with the press of a button.  The ledger economy is booming because they feel better that the supply chain isn't going to implode forever and that a cure is coming for covid, so they fell many, many things are undervalued and are all buy buy buy, The real economy is in the shitter and while it is possible that because the unemployment was weird and artificially generated that huge swaths of jobs will return with the end of covid.  I think it is woefully optimistic to think that is the case. Too many people are employed by small business that simply doesn't have the bank account to weather this shit this long. 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Sniper said:
ob·ser·va·tion
/ˌäbzərˈvāSH(ə)n/
  •  
    a remark, statement, or comment based on something one has seen, heard, or noticed.
     

    FYI, that's called an "opinion".

Uh, no. JFC. 

That's called an "observation", do we need to cover what a definition is now? lol

ALL the data you provided here is based on observations, and you're touting it as "fact", no?

So, its abundantly clear you literally only source information you agree with, or make some weird attempt to twist it to your own meaning.. I mean every single definition i have found not only has nothing about "opinions", but literally has the word FACT in it. 

And no, my statement is not an opinion, It is a fact. You have yet to correct the title of the thread, or acknowledge the fact that 82% number is GROSSLY wrong, base on FACTUAL data pre-covid. In fact, your entire attempt to circumvent the conversation revolved around arguing over an economic recovery that never happened instead of identifying that 62% that make up that 82% were in the same damn boat in 2018, well before covid.. or acknowledging the upward trend that puts that number even higher in 2019. In reality, based on observed data, that puts maybe 20% or less in a worse financial situation due to Covid. If you our the author acknowldeged that, maybe people could have a better more honest conversation. While 20% isnt 82%, its not a number to brush off by any means, but its an honest number.

observation

[ ob-zur-vey-shuhn ]SHOW IPA

noun

-an act or instance of noticing or perceiving.
-an act or instance of regarding attentively or watching.
-the faculty or habit of observing or noticing.
 
-an act or instance of viewing or noting a fact or occurrence for some scientific or other special purpose
-the information or record secured by such an act
 
 
 
 
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1 hour ago, raz-0 said:

The real economy is in the shitter and while it is possible that because the unemployment was weird and artificially generated that huge swaths of jobs will return with the end of covid.  I think it is woefully optimistic to think that is the case. Too many people are employed by small business that simply doesn't have the bank account to weather this shit this long. 

and that was the point of the whole article in the OP. That the economy for J6P took a serious hit from the Covid deal. Too bad Jack doesn't read COMPLETE articles, but chooses to jump in mid-thread and react ONLY to thread titles. He would have understood the point of the article, that the 82% DIDN'T come from a zero point, but is showing conditions have gotten worse from where they were.

The article spans all parts of the economy: credit, income, savings, spending, changes in lifestyles, etc. that have been affected and changed because of Covid. ALL the metrics and data were posted. Not really a tough topic to understand.

2 hours ago, raz-0 said:

That being said, the economic indicators are that GDP has grown massively in Q3 over Q2 of 2020. If we get two consecutive quarters of growth I'm sure some people will say it is a recovery, but the reality is without an increase in employment and individual income, it is not. 

A big part of that Q3 growth came from the Fed printing over $3.1 Trillion, and injecting it into the system. I doubt Q4 will look that rosey, UE is going back up, businesses are still closing, personal incomes are down... without more printed money, the ship is taking on water, and can't keep itself afloat.

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5 hours ago, JackDaWack said:

BUT 82% of Americans cant afford an emergency BECAUSE OF COVID. 

 

I was simply pointing out that 82% is much MUCH lower due to COVID. Something the OP has no interest in acknowledging because it doesn't paint a apocalyptic picture or jive with his purpose for posting this thread. 

82% is from a recent poll. It is not explained if the methodology matches the federal numbers. Taken at face value, since COVID lock downs that would mean that the number of people in that boat roughly doubled. 

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7 hours ago, Sniper said:

and that was the point of the whole article in the OP. That the economy for J6P took a serious hit from the Covid deal. Too bad Jack doesn't read COMPLETE articles, but chooses to jump in mid-thread and react ONLY to thread titles. He would have understood the point of the article, that the 82% DIDN'T come from a zero point, but is showing conditions have gotten worse from where they were.

The article spans all parts of the economy: credit, income, savings, spending, changes in lifestyles, etc. that have been affected and changed because of Covid. ALL the metrics and data were posted. Not really a tough topic to understand.

.

So youre saying that by reading the article i would see your thread title is wrong or misleading at best? 

 

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5 hours ago, raz-0 said:

82% is from a recent poll. It is not explained if the methodology matches the federal numbers. Taken at face value, since COVID lock downs that would mean that the number of people in that boat roughly doubled. 

Based on the numbers you posted by the feds, we were well on an upward trend at alread high levels. Just look at how many people were living paycheck to paycheck in January of 2020.. the number really ain't much different than what this article depics post covid

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8 hours ago, JackDaWack said:

Based on the numbers you posted by the feds, we were well on an upward trend at alread high levels. Just look at how many people were living paycheck to paycheck in January of 2020.. the number really ain't much different than what this article depics post covid

Yeah I presented the numbers wrong. Everything other source was charting the number of people who couldn’t pay from savings. The federal numbers were charting who could and my brain just spaced over it as a typo given the context. I fixed the post. People who can’t pay out of savings roughly doubled presuming the recent poll is using similar methodology. 

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2 hours ago, raz-0 said:

Yeah I presented the numbers wrong. Everything other source was charting the number of people who couldn’t pay from savings. The federal numbers were charting who could and my brain just spaced over it as a typo given the context. I fixed the post.  People who can’t pay out of savings roughly doubled presuming the recent poll is using similar methodology. 

Wait, so you're saying my posts were accurate and correct, after all?

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52 minutes ago, raz-0 said:

Posts that the numbers went up? Yes.

Jack is not going to like that.

52 minutes ago, raz-0 said:

Posts that we went into recession prior to covid? No. 

So, you're disproving that fact that the country went into a recession in February?

Where did you see that?

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4 hours ago, Sniper said:

Jack is not going to like that.

So, you're disproving that fact that the country went into a recession in February?

Where did you see that?

Recession is 2 successive quarters of declining GDP.  That was Q1 and Q2 of 2020. Q4 2019 was quarter on quarter growth. 

The source of that chart is the bea. If you want to claim covid had no effect until the lockdowns in march, then you are delusional. 

gdp3q20_2nd.png

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18 minutes ago, raz-0 said:

Recession is 2 successive quarters of declining GDP.  That was Q1 and Q2 of 2020. Q4 2019 was quarter on quarter growth. 

Here it is from NBER:

..."The committee has determined that a peak in monthly economic activity occurred in the US economy in February 2020. The peak marks the end of the expansion that began in June 2009 and the beginning of a recession.

The fact that the monthly peak of February occurred in the middle of 2020Q1 while the quarterly peak occurred in 2019Q4 reflects the unusual nature of this recession. The economy contracted so sharply in March (the final month of the quarter) that in 2020Q1, GDP, GDI, and employment were significantly below their levels of 2019Q4."

https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-june-8-2020

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1 hour ago, Sniper said:

Here it is from NBER:

..."The committee has determined that a peak in monthly economic activity occurred in the US economy in February 2020. The peak marks the end of the expansion that began in June 2009 and the beginning of a recession.

The fact that the monthly peak of February occurred in the middle of 2020Q1 while the quarterly peak occurred in 2019Q4 reflects the unusual nature of this recession. The economy contracted so sharply in March (the final month of the quarter) that in 2020Q1, GDP, GDI, and employment were significantly below their levels of 2019Q4."

https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-june-8-2020

Yes, and that says that the majority of contraction was in March, and covid was here at that time and people were panic buying toilet paper already. That also says it didn’t start contracting until mid February, and that was when it had broken free from wuhan without a doubt. 

This does not bolster the notion that the economy was in recession prior to covid. 

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5 hours ago, Sniper said:

Here it is from NBER:

..."The committee has determined that a peak in monthly economic activity occurred in the US economy in February 2020. The peak marks the end of the expansion that began in June 2009 and the beginning of a recession.

The fact that the monthly peak of February occurred in the middle of 2020Q1 while the quarterly peak occurred in 2019Q4 reflects the unusual nature of this recession. The economy contracted so sharply in March (the final month of the quarter) that in 2020Q1, GDP, GDI, and employment were significantly below their levels of 2019Q4."

https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-june-8-2020

sooo? they're still trying to give credit to 44?

 

3 hours ago, raz-0 said:

Yes, and that says that the majority of contraction was in March, and covid was here at that time and people were panic buying toilet paper already. That also says it didn’t start contracting until mid February, and that was when it had broken free from wuhan without a doubt. 

This does not bolster the notion that the economy was in recession prior to covid. 

there were some rumblings of it in jan. i ordered a pack of n95 masks and a full face mask with extra filters. my shop supplier thought i was nutty. middle of the summer, he recalled that, and mentioned that apparently i was slightly ahead of the game

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3 hours ago, raz-0 said:

This does not bolster the notion that the economy was in recession prior to covid. 

The economy started to roll over and slow down the end of the Summer 2019, and the overnight REPO market started getting nervous, and the Fed had to intervene. Then, if you remember, there were three Fed rate reductions in the Fall of 2019 to try and prop up the market. The party started back then, they saw it coming.

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/10/30/economy/federal-reserve-rate-decision-october/index.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/30/when-the-fed-cuts-rate-three-times-and-pauses-history-shows-it-works-out-great-for-stocks.html

I accept what NBER says, since they've been at this longer that you or I have been on this rock. They're the ones that have called all the past recessions, so if they say the economy rolled over in February, I'll take them at their word. The Covid situation just piled on after that fact.

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Yes you are just ignoring that on a global scale covid was already a thing, messing with supply changes, and causing unease and panic. 
 

Feb 2020 was neither 2019 nor is it pre-covid. Both seem to be points you tried to make in this thread.

Yes there was a recession in 2020. Technically we have 1q of growth so we could leave it soon. But it won’t feel like it even if we do because stuff tanked so hard that the bar for what counts as growth was set so low by the massive q3 declines. 

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24 minutes ago, raz-0 said:

Yes you are just ignoring that on a global scale covid was already a thing, messing with supply changes, and causing unease and panic. 
 

Feb 2020 was neither 2019 nor is it pre-covid. Both seem to be points you tried to make in this thread.

If you read data that NBER has released, they claim growth slowed in Dec. 2019, but since some metrics measure the economy by quarters, it didn't show until mid February, which was the peak. Data always lags.  It had nothing to do with Covid at that point, since we're talking about the US, and not global. The effects of Covid didn't really smack the country until mid March. That's when the brakes were really put on.

It was the slowing of the economy in the end of 2019 which led to the peak in mid Feb, where they feel the recession started and the current business cycle ended. It's not like there's a light switch that gets turned off, there are multiple parts of the puzzle to calling a recession.

NBER looks at more than just 2 qtrs of negative growth. They look at jobs, incomes, inventories, retail sales, etc. to come to their conclusion.

If you review what was going on in the end of 2019, it's clear that the economy was starting to hurt. When was the last time you saw the Fed lower rates 3 times during a good economy?

24 minutes ago, raz-0 said:

Technically we have 1q of growth so we could leave it soon.

That's artificial growth, caused by over $3.1 Trillion printed and injected into the economy, and a bounce off of a extreme crash and low. If anyone really thinks we're having significant economic growth right now, in Q4, I have some really nice oceanfront property in Kansas I'll sell them at a great deal!

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Slowing growth is still growth. 12 quarters of slowing growth wouldn’t be a recession. 
 

You being you will sit here trying to spin it that you are right until the end of days despite the evidence because you cited an article. 
 

Your statement that we entered a recession prior to covid is just simply wrong. We are multiple credible sources into establishing that. 
 

As for your last quote of me you do conveniently leave out where I say basically the same thing as you. Yes, a couple of quarters of that and you might technically meet the qualifications of recovery, but a bounce off of a record drop can look huge without getting us anywhere near pre recession levels. We don’t disagree on that. 

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8 hours ago, raz-0 said:

Your statement that we entered a recession prior to covid is just simply wrong. We are multiple credible sources into establishing that. 

I've asked more than once. Please post the links that support your position. As usual, you and Jack post MANY "Truths by Proclamations", but NEVER post links, charts, data of verifiable information to support your position, like I always do. I would really like to see your credible sources that prove it.

8 hours ago, raz-0 said:

Slowing growth is still growth. 12 quarters of slowing growth wouldn’t be a recession. 

Slowing growth precedes no growth, doesn't it. I pointed out more than once, the economy slowed at the end of last year, leveled off in the beginning of this year, and NBER determined it rolled over in the beginning of February and went negative, after they went back and reviewed data.

You still haven't answered my question to why the Fed lowered rates THREE times last Fall, if the economy was so rosey and growing? Was Covid here in July 2019? Why drop rates back then in a growing economy? Why did the Fed stop raising rates in the beginning of 2019 like they were doing the previous two years? Because the economy was so great and healthy? Here's a link, and chart is below:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/fedfunds

Notice the gray area at the far right side of the chart. That's the Recession that started in February.

Covid wasn't an issue at that point in the country. Unless you really want us to believe Trump halting all flights from China at the end of January started a recession two weeks later in February.

Covid just took a bad situation and made it a hell of lot worse in the end of March and into Q2.

Fedfunds.jpg

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On 12/6/2020 at 6:59 PM, Sniper said:

And recent reports show unemployment climbing again, while DC sits on their hands...

Respondent’s emergency savings have also taken a hit since the pandemic. Overall, 47% say they have run out of their emergency savings funds and 67% regret not having enough emergency savings before the pandemic hit. And if they were faced with a surprise $500 expense, 82% say they would not be able to afford it.

98260274499113f152687ab1e5ce80e4.png

After the unemployment rate spiked to more than 14% in April, Americans continue to be wary about their job security and income. According to respondents, more than a quarter feel they do not currently have a stable income, and 63% say they have been living paycheck to paycheck since the pandemic. Millennials appear to be the hardest hit demographic as 64% say they are living paycheck to paycheck.

81af55897a8064b42ad6eca0169f853e.png

According to respondents, 63% have cut back on spending during COVID-19 due to a number of reasons, including feeling the need to be more cautious with their finances (60%), experiencing a reduced salary or income (49%), and staying home more often (40%).

COVIDMAP.jpg?itok=32VJ_I64

https://highlandsolutions.com/blog/survey-reveals-spending-habits-during-covid-19

don't care and no sympathy to be honest.  I'll bet each one has a $500-700 lease in their driveway or $250 cell phone service, or a bunch of other non-essential bs spending patterns that show poor judgement

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