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revenger

Shooting ranges and ammo

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With the continuing ammo shortage as well as the reloading component shortage and with no end in sight probably for a very very long time especially with the dissolution of any opposition to the communist left in the country  what is to become of the shooting ranges.

Once all the ammo/components we hoarded is out or too dangerously low levels and the inability for anyone to include ranges and gun stores to replenish their stocks what is the future of shooting ranges that rely on range usage to survive.   If nobody has any ammo to shoot and the only available ammo is trading like silver and gold what are they going to do.    

I personally think it's time for the ammo industry to step up,  all I have been hearing from them is excuses.

if this is not the correct thread please move.

 

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I doubt it will run out.  There is still tons of ammo out there.  I have a few rounds of factory plus I reload.  I have not sold any ammo simply because I don't need the money! 

It will continue to go up in price though.  If it goes really insane in price, I would be stupid not to let some go and I probably will!  I am sure there are others like me who are content to just hang on to it for a while longer.

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On 1/10/2021 at 9:12 AM, revenger said:

Once all the ammo/components we hoarded is out or too dangerously low levels and the inability for anyone to include ranges and gun stores to replenish their stocks what is the future of shooting ranges that rely on range usage to survive.   If nobody has any ammo to shoot and the only available ammo is trading like silver and gold what are they going to do.    

I personally think it's time for the ammo industry to step up,  all I have been hearing from them is excuses.

if this is not the correct thread please move.

 

1) There's a TON of inventory moving. It's just instantly moving through the system due to demand. 

2) What are you expecting ammo manufacturers to actually do that they aren't doing? Keep in mind they aren't making these huge margins you are seeing and are coming off tight times where you had a case of m193 equivalent going for $230. Even so, they are operating balls out at 100% capacity to the point metals prices are rising, and they are also expanding capacity. They just can't expand fast enough, and it would be unwise to actually target this level of demand as the new normal. Typically demand after one of these panics never goes all the way back down, but it goes back down. 

Hornady has done 3 years of sales in 9 months. 

Grind Hard Ammo, which is basically a nobody was able to put up sales numbers foreseeing a panic coming that has enabled them to expand to the tune of $20 million dollars by their claim. The guy who owns grind hard says one of his up stream suppliers who also makes ammo is cranking out 800,000 rounds of 5.56 a day in is backordered to at least June of 2021. 

vista outdoors saw sales increase 30% and it's limited to that because they hit their capacity and have been busy spending on buying other companies. 

I know the place I purchase my bullets from for reloading has seen demand double and has expanded capacity twice the most recent added 30% of production capacity of the whole company just for 9mm. To make another capacity jump they would have to buy or rent more land and build from scratch. They are back ordered at least to April. 

WE normally consumed about 11 billion rounds of ammo a year. About 9 of that is domestic and another couple billion are imported. They say we blew past that back around July/August and we really didn't start buying it in volume until mid-February. 

 

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This demand for ammo drove up the price of raw materials considerably, especially copper. I deal with scrap yards frequently and copper prices are still going up. In a few years there will be copper shortages because the mining operations just can't keep up with demand. This is also due to power and construction demand, as well as the growing electric vehicle production. We are already seeing the effects of covid in hard hit countries like Chile and Peru where they had work stoppages and delays in investments. 

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I have to laugh a but at a metaphors my dad once said to me. 

 

You dont make a 8 lane wide highway just to manage rush hour traffic. It would sit nearly vacant 85% of the day. 

I dont expect a company to invest capital into a expanding production of ammunition because demand is high now. Thats called the bullwip and tons of companies are no longer around when they chase the bullwhip. Production increase wouldn't materialize for at least a year, maybe longer, and if the ammo crazy only last another year or 2, they will be left with shutting down the extra production to stabilize prices with demand. 

Without getting into the technical side of the argument, it would be a poor idea to expand. Especially after 2019 where just about every company had to give rebates to move product. 

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