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The Developing Global Food Shortage - How Bad?

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2 hours ago, ESB said:

Went to Walmart yesterday.  Many food shelves were bare or sparse.  Mostly meat, pasta, dairy, and poultry were noticeably low quantities.   Yet other items had lots of stuff.  

Could just be when they restock. I just did a Costco run about an hour ago. Produce was cut back to a more limited selection,  but stocked.  Dairy was full up as was all the meat. Beef was going back up in price again, but the boneless skinless chicken breasts were back to $3.49 a pound from $3.99. Ground beef was up to $3.99 a lb though. Nice looking pork loin was still &1.99 a pound. 

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20 minutes ago, father-of-three said:

Ukraine was sometimes called the breadbasket of the soviet union.

Ukraine is huge in agriculture.  There is a lot of history about how the Soviets would make them grow crops and then they'd take the harvest to Russia and sell the rest on the export market.  Do a search on Holodomor.

Quote

Prior to Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, Ukraine’s agriculture sector accounted for 11 percent of the country’s GDP, nearly 20 percent of its labor force, and nearly 40 percent of total exports, with Ukraine being the world’s fifth-largest exporter of wheat, fourth-largest exporter of corn, and third-largest exporter of rapeseed.

 

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1 hour ago, Scorpio64 said:

Ukraine is huge in agriculture.  There is a lot of history about how the Soviets would make them grow crops and then they'd take the harvest to Russia and sell the rest on the export market.  Do a search on Holodomor.

 

Maybe the western parts of the country were growing food, but that's probably too optimistic.

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Just now, father-of-three said:

Maybe the western parts of the country were growing food, but that's probably too optimistic.

Every farmer in Ukraine that can farm, is farming.  They are literally farming in the middle of a war.  You can't not produce food, people all over the world are depending on it to feed families and livestock.  I believe there may have been a couple shipments of grain to Africa out of Odessa.

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I Run a food truck down Philly way and since we do cheesesteak the necessary Onions have increased in price 10-20% over the last month and quantities available are low in stock at major wholesale food distributors. Same with Potatoes. There is a limit on how many pre cut french fries you can buy as well. We dont use those but potato prices have gone up as well. 

Recenly i ve invested in some Agriculture ventures (dairy) in Central Asia. We make a shelf stable cheese that can last 6 years and only sell to ethnic stores in the US. I have no idea how to market this to Americans. Maybe for food prep or hiking. 

So i ve been following prices from many East European and Central Asian exporting countries and the prices on wheat, onions, potatoes are very high vs previous years. 

https://east-fruit.com/en/news/potato-prices-in-georgia-increase-as-growers-are-expecting-a-poor-harvest/

 

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I heard on the radio this morning that Nitrogen based fertilizers are hard to find and if found cost 3x from last year due to the war. Russia makes about 25% of the worlds Nitrogen based fert. Shipping Cos are not hauling Russian fertilizer out of fear of not being able to sell it due to sanctions. Report said Africa and Europe will feel the pinch before us and that this shortage will take years to resolve.

Story mentioned that to make the Nitrogen fert. they need natural gas...so yesterday's Russian natural gas line explosions are timely, no?

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9 minutes ago, dajonga said:

I heard on the radio this morning that Nitrogen based fertilizers are hard to find and if found cost 3x from last year due to the war. Russia makes about 25% of the worlds Nitrogen based fert. Shipping Cos are not hauling Russian fertilizer out of fear of not being able to sell it due to sanctions. Report said Africa and Europe will feel the pinch before us and that this shortage will take years to resolve.

Story mentioned that to make the Nitrogen fert. they need natural gas...so yesterday's Russian natural gas line explosions are timely, no?

That is.. extremely old news. We are already seeing the food show up at stores that that news applied to. That was september 2021. We did set new highs this year, but they are tapering already and were more like 10% over the old highs. 

This isn't the global market, but it is illustrative. 

fdd07192022_fig1.png

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