Political vulnerability

[Newtonian 453]

I've done some research on vulnerable NJ senate and assembly seats. The following are results from districts where possibly pro-2A candidates lost, with the margins of defeat below each entry. The higher number corresponds to the democratic winner in every case. Note that in district 38 we lost BOTH seats by a total of fewer than 900 votes.

 

I've tacked on at the end, for comparison purposes, the results for the senate race in District 3.

 

These stats are for informational purposes, to get some input and ideas. They are not intended to extend the pissing match on another thread to The Lounge.

 

If I can find my "turnout" analysis somewhere in the bowels of these forums I will re-present them here as well in a subsequent post. 

 

Assembly

District 2

Mazzeo            25,164

Amodeo          25,124

40 votes

 

District 14

Benson            30,992

Cook               28,125

2,867 VOTES

 

District 18

Pinkin              24,186

Bengivenga     21,517

3,669 VOTES

 

 

District 27

Jasey                29,345

Tedesco           25,378

3,967 VOTES

 

District 38

Eustace            26,021

Lagana:           26,279

742 votes

 

District 38

Scarpa:            25,965

Fragala:           25,836

129 votes

 

 

Senate

District 14

Greensteen      31,387

Inverso            29,903

1,484 votes

 

 

District 18

Barnes             25,063

Stahl                23,184

1,879 votes

 

District 38

Gordon            27,779

Alonso             25,767

2,012 votes

 

 

District 3

Sweeney    31,045

Trunk          25,599

6,446 votes

[Zeke 5,504]

What is your plan?

You realize low voter turnout is a national problem?

Perhaps you should consult with the NJ Republican Party?

[Murphy4570 15]

Don't look at me, I vote against Sweeney every chance I get. Not my fault too much of Gloucester County loves the bastard.

[1LtCAP 4,263]

i think the point that is being shown here, is that if we all got information out to people that may not normally get out and vote, then perhaps we could swing the senate in our favor.

[Zeke 5,504]

i think the point that is being shown here, is that if we all got information out to people that may not normally get out and vote, then perhaps we could swing the senate in our favor.

Agreed

So what's his plan?

Every spear needs a point.....

[1LtCAP 4,263]

Agreed

So what's his plan?

Every spear needs a point.....

that i don't know.

[diamondd817 827]

Why the heck is this in the 1st amendment lounge?

[Zeke 5,504]

Why the fuck is this in the 1st amendment lounge where only 5 fucking people can see it. This is the kind of fucking stuff that needs to be public forum. How the fuck is this going to help to get out the vote in here? We need a new gun forum for NJ that can actually help the cause.

It is possible that Newtoinian started his post here

[Zeke 5,504]

that i don't know.

That's why I asked.....

[Kevin125 4,772]

Ok... Could an admin move this to the General Discussion forum? I suggest that since it exclude guests and I assume, web crawlers like google.

[Kevin125 4,772]

As far as a plan, here is my suggestion for a way to start.

 

1) Start by agreeing that we will start with one district. Some factors are likely success and location of volunteers. If enough people volunteer and their locations work, add more districts.

 

2) Start of list of volunteers and what amount of time they think they will have. This can be a locked thread managed by an admin who volunteers to update it.

 

3) Gather some ideas for what we will actually be doing. Door to door? Phone calls by volunteers? USPS mail? Email? ...????

 

4) Are we solo or do we seek out a campaign group to work with?

 

5) Decide if there are specific jobs some people need to handle. Recording, and whatever else there is to do.

 

 

That's one way to start. I've never been involved in any sort of campaign deal so maybe someone has more specific ideas or knows what works best.

 

Have at it.....

[JohnnyB 4,325]

Newt is right! (Sorry Angelo, I could not resist!)

 

There are seats that Dem's won by as few as 40 votes!!! We can still do the recall thing but we need to get the word out in those districts

where it was close and THAT is where we can definitely swing a few seats our way!!! We may or not be successful with the recall but we sure as hell can

make a difference in some of these tight races and at least begin to change the legislature in our direction!!!

 

People here who live in or near those districts that Newtonian listed need to get the word out and become actively involved in that process now!!!

[Kevin125 4,772]

If this 1st Ammend. Lounge isn't the right place for this, and we can't move this thread, a new thread should be started somewhere. General Discussion is probably a good place.

 

Newtonian. That's probably your thread to (re)start. Thanks for this detailed info.

[Newtonian 453]

Why the fuck is this in the 1st amendment lounge where only 5 fucking people can see it. This is the kind of fucking stuff that needs to be public forum. How the fuck is this going to help to get out the vote in here? We need a new gun forum for NJ that can actually help the cause.

Frankly, I could not see where to put the information. I will re-post if you can suggest a better location. 

 

Edit: Removed all the F**Ks and derivatives. 

[1LtCAP 4,263]

better to keep it somewhere where all of our members can see it, but less likely for antis that may or may not have infiltrated.

[DirtyDigz 1,812]

Good on you Newtonian, appreciate your efforts here, will continue to watch this thread to see how I can assist.

[Kevin125 4,772]

I'd suggest "General Discussion".   Have to at least be registered to see it. 

[Newtonian 453]

Here is the follow-up analysis, previously posted in the Almeida thread. See if you can put this two-piece puzzle together:

 

 

Before anyone accuses me of fudging the numbers, yes I had to correct at least one. If you follow through on this line of reasoning I begin with 1 million gun owners and whittle it down from there based on numerous factors. I've also updated with more realistic scenarios/numbers:

 

1. "1 million gun owners" in NJ. Assume that's off by 20%, assume 10% are invalids. = 700,000 gun owners

 

2. Assume 15% have like-minded significant others = 800,000 potential votes

 

3. 27% participation rate in last mid term election (like the one this November). Let's assume it's already a whopping 30% among gun owners = 540,000 non-voting gun owners + partners

 

4. Assume half of them already live in secure Republican districts so their votes don't matter = 270,000 non-voting gun owners + spouses

 

5. Let's assume we can get 15% of them to get off their asses in November. That leaves us with a grand total of aboout 40,000 votes out of 1 million alleged gun owners. Now...

 

6. I forget the exact numbers and don't feel like looking them up again. But assume 12 vulnerable districts where the margin of victory was 4,000 votes or less. And let's assume those margins of defeat averaged about 2,000 votes. We're talking needing  24,000 votes to win back the legislature.

 

Any math geniuses here? Please perform this operation: 40,000 - 24,000 divided by 12. What do you get? You get decisive victories in those races. We wouldn't win all of course. But talk about putting the fear of God in these people.

 

Note that I'm making a LOT of adverse assumptions here. A decent get-out-the-vote plan, or more favorable outcomes in any of the six steps might win 50,000, 60,000 or more votes.

 

 

 

[67gtonut 847]

OK.... as requested...... moved to Main Forum....

 

But here is your warning.....

 

Anyone that cannot discuss this subject like an adult............. Will ruin it for everyone.  So police yourselves, because I will be watching this thread.......

[matty 810]

Yeah, but look what happened in 1994-2001. Florio out, Republican Senate & Assembly, Republican governors. No AWB repeal after the Republicans attempted and were sold out by.....Republicans (DeFrancesco, then all Senate R's). I am all for multiple efforts in the legislative area (I am in district 12, which is very progun),  glad to see this has evelved into rational discussion, now that GOTV effort can be the focus. Executing that is hard, but throwing out some ideas is a call tree, local vets organizations, BIG outreach to the Fudds, one of thier organizations actually endorsed Sweeney & Greenwald a couple years ago

[Kevin125 4,772]

Thank you sir.

 

Warning noted.

[Newtonian 453]

OK, so how do you reach 40,000, 50,000, 60,000 people?

 

They'd have to be within those vulnerable districts. How do you determine that? Loss percentage or total margin of defeat? Anyone statistically oriented might shed some light on this.

 

Door-to-door won't work. Even with 100 volunteers you don't know whose door you're knocking on. Similarly for cold calling. Targeted calling is a bit better, but awfully time- and effort-intensive. Is it possible, even with a list of "outdoors-people," to reach more than 10 per hour? 40,000/10 = 4,000 hours divided by our mythical army of 100 volunteers is still 40 hours. Yikes. Again, expertise in this area would be appreciated.

 

Post card mailers a couple of days before the election are kind of intriguing. We might perhaps even get the Republican to donate something towards this effort. But we'd have to get a targeted list. NRA might supply it for free. But we'd need more, say from the big outlets. Would they perhaps mail them or provide the list for free if they knew the initiative was for real? How about sports/gun shops?

 

Now there's an interesting idea. Make a good case for why a pro 2A candidate is important to their business. Explain what happens when draconian restrictions eventually are passed. Is there a way to convince them to engage each and every customer who comes through the door between Labor Day and the election? Provide them with literature to hand out?

 

Hmmmm...

[Newtonian 453]

Yeah, but look what happened in 1994-2001. Florio out, Republican Senate & Assembly, Republican governors. No AWB repeal after the Republicans attempted and were sold out by.....Republicans (DeFrancesco, then all Senate R's). I am all for multiple efforts in the legislative area (I am in district 12, which is very progun),  glad to see this has evelved into rational discussion, now that GOTV effort can be the focus. Executing that is hard, but throwing out some ideas is a call tree, local vets organizations, BIG outreach to the Fudds, one of thier organizations actually endorsed Sweeney & Greenwald a couple years ago

You describe one of the vilest episodes in the history of NJ politics, and that's saying a lot. I keep saying I'm going to visit the NJ Herald and fish out that article from shortly after they achieved a veto-proof majority. The only significant cut they made was to the yacht tax. Everything else had to stay because "businesses want these services to continue" or some such crap.

 

Today is different, with 47 states more accommodating on this issue. Lots of history, positive history, including most recently Illinois.

[1LtCAP 4,263]

Yeah, but look what happened in 1994-2001. Florio out, Republican Senate & Assembly, Republican governors. No AWB repeal after the Republicans attempted and were sold out by.....Republicans (DeFrancesco, then all Senate R's). I am all for multiple efforts in the legislative area (I am in district 12, which is very progun),  glad to see this has evelved into rational discussion, now that GOTV effort can be the focus. Executing that is hard, but throwing out some ideas is a call tree, local vets organizations, BIG outreach to the Fudds, one of thier organizations actually endorsed Sweeney & Greenwald a couple years ago

that could've been a timing thing? wasn't it all the rage back then to ban everything in sight? now the rage is to loosen up.......if we could get the same setup as then, i think we could make progress.......

[maintenanceguy 510]

Feet on the ground.  Buy a mailing list of republican households and get people knocking on doors.  You'd have to know some demographics about each household and custom taylor the message to each home since not ever Capital R household is a gun household.  If you knocked on 1000 doors on the weekend before the election, you might get 50 more people out to vote - some of the elections could be won this way.

 

The problem is the same problem every one of our ideas have - we need people on the ground getting their hands dirty.

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot 358]

OK, so how do you reach 40,000, 50,000, 60,000 people?

 

They'd have to be within those vulnerable districts. How do you determine that? Loss percentage or total margin of defeat? Anyone statistically oriented might shed some light on this.

 

Hmmmm...

 

I've looked at this before with the 2013 NJ Assembly election results and how they voted on bill A2006 - 10 round magazine cap.

 

The 10 round mag bill was approved 46 to 31 with 3 did not votes on 3/20/2014.

 

One Republican (Brown-8) voted for the bill and three Republicans did not vote (O'Scanlon-13, Wolfe-10, Bucco-25).  I don't know what that's about.

 

Three Democrats voted against the bill (Andrzejcak-1, Riley-3, Burzichelli-3).

 

So, back of envelope math is this:  The three Republican abstentions vote against the 10-rd cap.  That makes it 46-34.  So we need a 12 votes to flip.  If you look at the 12 most vulnerable legislators who voted for the 10-rd cap by margin # or % (pretty much same thing), the that leaves really 7-8 legislative districts that need to flip this November 3, 2015.

 

Collective margin of victory was 58,111 votes divided by two (# of legislators from each district), that's about 30,000 votes separating NJ from 10-rd magazine limit.  It seems like this is attainable with concerted GOTV plan.

 

District 2 - (Atlantic)  Absecon, Atlantic City, Brigantine, Buena, Buena Vista, Egg Harbor City, Egg Harbor Township, Folsom, Hamilton (Atlantic), Linwood, Longport, Margate City, Mullica, Northfield, Pleasantville, Somers Point, Ventnor City

 

District 38 - (Bergen and Passaic)  Bergenfield, Fair Lawn, Glen Rock, Hasbrouck Heights, Hawthorne, Lodi, Maywood, New Milford, Oradell, Paramus, River Edge, Rochelle Park, Saddle Brook

 

District 14 - (Mercer and Middlesex)  Cranbury, East Windsor, Hamilton (Mercer), Hightstown, Jamesburg, Monroe (Middlesex), Plainsboro, Robbinsville, Spotswood

 

District 18 - (Middlesex)  East Brunswick, Edison, Helmetta, Highland Park, Metuchen, South Plainfield, South River

 

District 27 - (Essex and Morris)  Caldwell, Chatham Township, East Hanover, Essex Fells, Florham Park, Hanover, Harding, Livingston, Madison, Maplewood, Millburn, Roseland, South Orange, West Orange

 

District 22 - (Middlesex, Somerset and Union)  Clark, Dunellen, Fanwood, Green Brook, Linden, Middlesex, North Plainfield, Plainfield, Rahway, Scotch Plains, Winfield

 

District 7 - (Burlington)  Beverly, Bordentown, Bordentown Township, Burlington, Burlington Township, Cinnaminson, Delanco, Delran, Edgewater Park, Fieldsboro, Florence, Moorestown, Mount Laurel, Palmyra, Riverside, Riverton, Willingboro

 

District 4 - (Camden and Gloucester)  Chesilhurst, Clementon, Gloucester Township, Laurel Springs, Lindenwold, Monroe (Gloucester), Pitman, Washington (Gloucester), Winslow

 

[mipafox 438]

Newt is right! (Sorry Angelo, I could not resist!)

 

There are seats that Dem's won by as few as 40 votes!!!

I have an exercise since people are looking for ideas.

 

I think it's safe to assume that the candidate that lost by 40 votes wanted to win more than even we wanted them to win, and probably worked harder at it than we will. With the now proverbial 40 vote loss, I will admit that some extra manpower certainly could have made the difference. In that one single district. But how do you know that before hand?

 

Presumably the Republican Party puts quite a bit of effort into these things in proportion to their resources (greater than ours), and add the efforts of the candidates and their paid workers, consultants in some cases, and volunteers.

 

What I am getting at is this. YES, we can always help decide the outcome of a political issue. Yes, canvassing legislators works even better (like we do in PA and you guys need to do more of). Yes, our efforts in elections can pay off in some cases. What do we bring to the table that the Republican Party, candidates, paid workers, consultants, and volunteers do not? Beyond additional phone calls and manpower?

 

Any answers we can find in that respect would be very helpful. Exploiting our strengths and the enemy's weaknesses, and complimenting the weaknesses of our candidates. The first thing that comes to mind to me is gun owners that don't vote, like Newt always points out. We are with these people. The NJ gun organizations are great and are making a difference, but they won't reach most gun owners. The blogs and internet radio programs are great, but let's face it, most gun owners aren't going to bother with it. First we need to pester our friends. Then we need to have shops, ranges, and clubs post flyers about elections (which almost nobody will read) but also hand them out. And we need volunteers to work these locations from time to time to make sure we get some people involved.

 

This is only one idea. If anybody else thinks we have a way of offering more than simply our small activist numbers (which are important), or better ways to get the firearms community to vote, fantastic.

 

Here is just one example. Let me show you what I am taking to the primary elections next Tuesday, in addition to an open carried S&W Model 15 in a $115 brown leather holster

 

https://foac-pac.org/Voter-Guide#

 

Click on a zone and see. I print it out, research any candidates I don't know, mark it up with my choices, and bring it to the voting booth. Something like this should be pushed at gun shops, ranges, and clubs. It doesn't just help people decide their vote, it will add a few voters through inspiration. Unfortunately it would take a little work and a year to get going but we still have enough time for one of the NJ gun organizations to do it. One guy or girl could create and send out the surveys but a collaborative effort and legitimate organization is obviously helpful.

[Newtonian 453]

I've looked at this before with the 2013 NJ Assembly election results and how they voted on bill A2006 - 10 round magazine cap.

 

The 10 round mag bill was approved 46 to 31 with 3 did not votes on 3/20/2014.

 

One Republican (Brown-8) voted for the bill and three Republicans did not vote (O'Scanlon-13, Wolfe-10, Bucco-25).  I don't know what that's about.

 

Three Democrats voted against the bill (Andrzejcak-1, Riley-3, Burzichelli-3).

 

So, back of envelope math is this:  The three Republican abstentions vote against the 10-rd cap.  That makes it 46-34.  So we need a 12 votes to flip.  If you look at the 12 most vulnerable legislators who voted for the 10-rd cap by margin # or % (pretty much same thing), the that leaves really 7-8 legislative districts that need to flip this November 3, 2015.

 

 

I'll look at this more closely later tonight. Nice job.

 

First impression is can we afford to gild the lily, to go after individuals who voted for a specific bill? Are you suggesting that that one vote may be indicative of their voting record in general?

 

I believe a "who votes how" project was underway at NJSAS/F when Mr. Fiamingo was running it. I poo-pooed it at the time (surprised?) because I didn't think we could fine tune our efforts beyond party affiliation. If we went after an anti-gun republican it would have to be during the primaries, which is a mess, which extends this effort beyond what anyone is probably willing to sign up for. 

[Newtonian 453]

I have an exercise since people are looking for ideas.

 

I think it's safe to assume that the candidate that lost by 40 votes wanted to win more than even we wanted them to win, and probably worked harder at it than we will. With the now proverbial 40 vote loss, I will admit that some extra manpower certainly could have made the difference. In that one single district. But how do you know that before hand?

 

Presumably the Republican Party puts quite a bit of effort into these things in proportion to their resources (greater than ours), and add the efforts of the candidates and their paid workers, consultants in some cases, and volunteers.

 

What I am getting at is this. YES, we can always help decide the outcome of a political issue. Yes, canvassing legislators works even better (like we do in PA and you guys need to do more of). Yes, our efforts in elections can pay off in some cases. What do we bring to the table that the Republican Party, candidates, paid workers, consultants, and volunteers do not? Beyond additional phone calls and manpower?

 

Any answers we can find in that respect would be very helpful. Exploiting our strengths and the enemy's weaknesses, and complimenting the weaknesses of our candidates. The first thing that comes to mind to me is gun owners that don't vote, like Newt always points out. We are with these people. The NJ gun organizations are great and are making a difference, but they won't reach most gun owners. The blogs and internet radio programs are great, but let's face it, most gun owners aren't going to bother with it. First we need to pester our friends. Then we need to have shops, ranges, and clubs post flyers about elections (which almost nobody will read) but also hand them out. And we need volunteers to work these locations from time to time to make sure we get some people involved.

 

This is only one idea. If anybody else thinks we have a way of offering more than simply our small activist numbers (which are important), or better ways to get the firearms community to vote, fantastic.

 

Here is just one example. Let me show you what I am taking to the primary elections next Tuesday, in addition to an open carried S&W Model 15 in a $115 brown leather holster

 

https://foac-pac.org/Voter-Guide#

 

Click on a zone and see. I print it out, research any candidates I don't know, mark it up with my choices, and bring it to the voting booth. Something like this should be pushed at gun shops, ranges, and clubs. It doesn't just help people decide their vote, it will add a few voters through inspiration. Unfortunately it would take a little work and a year to get going but we still have enough time for one of the NJ gun organizations to do it. One guy or girl could create and send out the surveys but a collaborative effort and legitimate organization is obviously helpful.

The printout idea is cool. 

 

To answer your question: The NJ Republican Party and individual Republican candidates broadcast their message to everyone. TV and radio frequencies hit everybody. Democrats spend their money the same way. The result is what we get typically, 27-35% turnout. If all we did was go down to district 2 and knock on doors the result would be as you predict. We would add incrementally to the big money support and Amodeo would lose by 20 votes instead of 40.

 

A targeted get out the vote effort aims to disproportionally add voters, of a particular affiliation, from among people who would not ordinarily vote, to the pool of individuals who already would vote or do vote. A politician would give his left testicle for a list of individuals who would vote for him but are too lazy. Given piss-poor participation virtually anybody can win by sufficiently motivating that demographic. 

 

It's not a perfect strategy. Some of the people we contact might be inspired to vote democrat. But one would hope the effect would be the same as walking into a polling booth and pulling the lever 500 times for your guy and just 20 times for the other guy. 

 

That is what I'm counting on. If it's a naive idea please let me know and why. 

[mipafox 438]

For your idea, voter registration and affiliation is public record. That might be a start. Pretty sure elections voted in is public record as well. It is in PA, and I know Obama and Acorn have it for the entire country. No left nut required.

 

You go to your representative and ask them if they are cosponsoring a bill, their staff will type into the computer looking at two things. The bill number and status; and your name, confirming your district, and a check on the last time you voted.