Political vulnerability

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot 358]

I'll look at this more closely later tonight. Nice job.

 

First impression is can we afford to gild the lily, to go after individuals who voted for a specific bill? Are you suggesting that that one vote may be indicative of their voting record in general?

 

I believe a "who votes how" project was underway at NJSAS/F when Mr. Fiamingo was running it. I poo-pooed it at the time (surprised?) because I didn't think we could fine tune our efforts beyond party affiliation. If we went after an anti-gun republican it would have to be during the primaries, which is a mess, which extends this effort beyond what anyone is probably willing to sign up for. 

 

No, I'm not suggesting one vote is indicative.  As you mentioned, it goes beyond party affiliation so I used the 10-rd mag cap bill as an easy to grab litmus test.

 

There was only one Republican who voted for the 10-rd cap and he is not running this year so primaries are a moot issue.

 

Following mipa's idea, there's some low hanging fruit in terms of canvassing for votes at ranges and gun stores.  Banger's/SJSC is in competitive District 4.  Shooter's is next to District 2.  GFH is near 38 and 27.  CJ/OB are near 14/18.

 

Registration and information drives showing how their legislator voted for the 10-rd mag cap at these locations (with their permission of course) would at least be a start even if it's informal chit chat.

[Newtonian 453]

 Yes, canvassing legislators works even better (like we do in PA and you guys need to do more of). 

I knew I'd forgotten something. Probably deserves a separate response anyway to our Embassador-in-Exile.

 

Mipa you live in a mostly democrat state correct? Let's not quibble over local vs. state-wide. Pennsylvania has voted Democrat for president since Christ was a kid. Sorry, Kid.

 

I assume your canvassing includes speaking with democrat legislators. Tell me if it ain't so.

 

We've don't even attempt that any more which is a shame. Suggest it in this forum and you get a diarrhea shower. The topic of re-visiting our gun laws has become so antagonistic, so toxic, that dialog has ceased. Those hearings in Trenton consist of two human walls of granite, one pissing on the other until the two minutes are up, then the other reacting predictably.

 

They say the definition of insanity is doing the same thing 1000 times, getting the same result each time, and expecting the 1001st time to be different.

 

NJ voters must understand, must come to grips with the demographic revolution that is sweeping the state and our nation. You're going to have to deal mostly, with occasional lucky blips, with those people for the rest of your lives. I'm 60 but you guys in your 30s and 40s think about it, particularly if you have parents or children who will (happily, but sadly) tie you down to this pathetic place called New Jersey.

 

I'm not saying to kiss the politicians asses, but spitting into their water glass isn't going to help. 

[Kevin125 4,772]

On PA and Dem state... I think it's Philadelphia County that tips the scales there.  And maybe Allegheny County.  Take those out and you get an R Prez vote every time.  Point being, the majority of counties I think are populated by R's.  Also, area of Easton is leaning D lately if I recall correctly.

 

If you look at it geographically.

[mipafox 438]

I knew I'd forgotten something. Probably deserves a separate response anyway to our Embassador-in-Exile.

This isn't a "what to do" thread. It's a "Newt's idea" thread, and I am trying to support that in this thread. There are many other valid ideas including canvassing legislators and recalling Sweeney. Wasn't planning to focus on that here.

 

Mipa you live in a mostly democrat state correct? Let's not quibble over local vs. state-wide. Pennsylvania has voted Democrat for president since Christ was a kid. Sorry, Kid.

I'll let you be the judge. Because, let's face it, you always are

 

Republicans hold a 30-20 majority in the Senate and a 120-83 majority in the House

 

I assume your canvassing includes speaking with democrat legislators. Tell me if it ain't so.

Absolutely. The worse they are, the more fun it is. There have been plenty of yelling matches, staffers actually uncontrollably shaking. One guy actually chased a legislator through the hallways, literally, while yelling at him and preventing him from proceeding to his destination (running away). I thought the Capitol Police were going to arrest the guy.

 

We've don't even attempt that any more which is a shame. Suggest it in this forum and you get a diarrhea shower. The topic of re-visiting our gun laws has become so antagonistic, so toxic, that dialog has ceased. Those hearings in Trenton consist of two human walls of granite, one pissing on the other until the two minutes are up, then the other reacting predictably.

 

They say the definition of insanity is doing the same thing 1000 times, getting the same result each time, and expecting the 1001st time to be different.

 

NJ voters must understand, must come to grips with the demographic revolution that is sweeping the state and our nation. You're going to have to deal mostly, with occasional lucky blips, with those people for the rest of your lives. I'm 60 but you guys in your 30s and 40s think about it, particularly if you have parents or children who will (happily, but sadly) tie you down to this pathetic place called New Jersey.

 

I'm not saying to kiss the politicians asses, but spitting into their water glass isn't going to help. 

I'm not sure what any of that means, but the political revolution I see is more Republican Governors and state legislators when all 50 states are considered than any time in history that I am aware of.

[Kevin125 4,772]

I still think starting smaller has more chance of success. The 40,000 to 60,000 vote figure is daunting. There are competitive districts that 100 volunteers, or even 25, would be a meaningful resource.

 

I don't even know who's running in any of the districts. We should find out who they are and contact them about supporting them. We would need to know how they stand on issues... Last thing we want is to have a dem who voted against the 10 rnd mag bill lose to an R that did or would vote for it.

 

Something else I am not sure about is when some sort of registration is required. I know it is if we take in money. That's another reason I thought working with an established campaign could make certain things easier.

 

But if all we're doing is knocking on doors or making calls, we may not need to deal with any and the state election board rules or FEC rules if they even apply in these state elections.

[Kevin125 4,772]

Primary candidates.

 

http://www.njelections.org/2015-results/2015-certification-of-primary-candidates.pdf

[Kevin125 4,772]

Wait a minute. In district 38, Eustace and Lagana are both registered as Dems in this year certified primary list.

 

The republicans listed this year are Dipisa and Cappola.

 

Down below you have Eustace beating Lagana by 742 votes. That looks like a primary.

 

Newtonian, where is this list from??

 

The info I have is linked above from the state election site.

 

The others that lost aren't listed this year as far as I can tell. I'd have to do more research to ID them as Dem or Repub.

 

 

I've done some research on vulnerable NJ senate and assembly seats. The following are results from districts where possibly pro-2A candidates lost, with the margins of defeat below each entry. The higher number corresponds to the democratic winner in every case. Note that in district 38 we lost BOTH seats by a total of fewer than 900 votes.

 

I've tacked on at the end, for comparison purposes, the results for the senate race in District 3.

 

These stats are for informational purposes, to get some input and ideas. They are not intended to extend the pissing match on another thread to The Lounge.

 

If I can find my "turnout" analysis somewhere in the bowels of these forums I will re-present them here as well in a subsequent post.

 

Assembly

District 2

Mazzeo 25,164

Amodeo 25,124

40 votes

 

District 14

Benson 30,992

Cook 28,125

2,867 VOTES

 

District 18

Pinkin 24,186

Bengivenga 21,517

3,669 VOTES

 

 

District 27

Jasey 29,345

Tedesco 25,378

3,967 VOTES

 

District 38

Eustace 26,021

Lagana: 26,279

742 votes

 

District 38

Scarpa: 25,965

Fragala: 25,836

129 votes

 

 

Senate

District 14

Greensteen 31,387

Inverso 29,903

1,484 votes

 

 

District 18

Barnes 25,063

Stahl 23,184

1,879 votes

 

District 38

Gordon 27,779

Alonso 25,767

2,012 votes

 

 

District 3

Sweeney 31,045

Trunk 25,599

6,446 votes

[Kevin125 4,772]

Maybe Lagana changed party? Or it's his brother? The other losers seem to be Rs.

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot 358]

The overall vote count seems right.  Lagana and Eustace (Dems) and ran against Scarpa and Fragala (Republicans) in 2013.  Eustace only beat Scarpa by 56 votes and Eustace ended up being a Primary Sponsor of the 10-rd magazine limit bill.

 

District 38 is Bergen and Passaic (Bergenfield, Fair Lawn, Glen Rock, Hasbrouck Heights, Hawthorne, Lodi, Maywood, New Milford, Oradell, Paramus, River Edge, Rochelle Park, Saddle Brook).

 

District    Candidate    Party Affiliation    Votes    Margin of Victory %    Margin of Victory
38    Joseph Lagana    Democratic     26,279     1%     314
38    Timothy Eustace    Democratic     26,021     0%     56
38    Joseph Scarpa    Republican     25,965         
38    Joan Fragala    Republican     25,836         
 

[Kevin125 4,772]

OK, I get it.   I wasn't following how he listed it in that case.

 

But the number 742 doesn't seem to foot.  Doesn't matter though. It's still close.

 

One thing I'm seeing is it looks like most if not all of the Repubs who lost by small margins aren't running this time around.  They're not in the certified primary list.  Unless they don't need to be on that list because of number of candidates. 

 

Then again, the list of primary candidates doesn't seem to warrant having a primary given there are only 5 districts showing more than 2 candidates from each party.

 

Another thing to consider is were there any districts where republicans barely won?

[Newtonian 453]

Wait a minute. In district 38, Eustace and Lagana are both registered as Dems in this year certified primary list.

 

The republicans listed this year are Dipisa and Cappola.

 

Down below you have Eustace beating Lagana by 742 votes. That looks like a primary.

 

Newtonian, where is this list from??

 

The info I have is linked above from the state election site.

 

The others that lost aren't listed this year as far as I can tell. I'd have to do more research to ID them as Dem or Repub.

 

 

I got it from here: http://ballotpedia.org/New_Jersey_General_Assembly_elections,_2013

 

Scroll down to "District 38." It says Eustice and Lagana ran as democrats, and beat republicans Fragala and Scarpa by a combined 900-1000 votes. Am I reading this incorrectly?

[Newtonian 453]

 

 

Another thing to consider is were there any districts where republicans barely won?

 

I believe so. See here: http://ballotpedia.org/New_Jersey_General_Assembly_elections,_2013

 

That's not what I was looking for, but very good point.

[Newtonian 453]

Something else I am not sure about is when some sort of registration is required. I know it is if we take in money. That's another reason I thought working with an established campaign could make certain things easier.

 

But if all we're doing is knocking on doors or making calls, we may not need to deal with any and the state election board rules or FEC rules if they even apply in these state elections.

We'd only need money for gas, travel, and printing. If this gets legs I would pay for my share. We should also consider asking the big chain shops, NRA, and national 2AS/F (I can never keep them straight) how they might help us.

 

Printing might get expensive; latching on to the campaigns for those candidates is a great idea. We'll know who they are after the primaries.

 

My idea the whole way was for this to go viral rather than having 15 people shake 40,000 hands. That's why the shops and ranges are so important. Visiting them, giving them literature to distribute, checking in on them periodically. 

 

"AND IF YOU KNOW A GUN OWNER OR SOMEONE FRIENDLY TO 2ND AMENDMENT ISSUES, PLEASE TAKE AN EXTRA ONE OR TWO OF THESE FLIERS AND HAND THEM OUT."

[Kevin125 4,772]

 

My idea the whole way was for this to go viral rather than having 15 people shake 40,000 hands. That's why the shops and ranges are so important. Visiting them, giving them literature to distribute, checking in on them periodically. 

 

"AND IF YOU KNOW A GUN OWNER OR SOMEONE FRIENDLY TO 2ND AMENDMENT ISSUES, PLEASE TAKE AN EXTRA ONE OR TWO OF THESE FLIERS AND HAND THEM OUT."

 

 

Right.  It's not a 15 person job.  It's could really use some large participation.

 

And on the "know a gun owner" thing.  Absolutely.  If anyone does know a gun owner that may be oblivious to all of this, see if they're interested in doing anything to get involved.  Even if it's just making sure they and their voting age family are all on board.

 

And I'm not sure what the hell I wrote in that post you quoted of mine.  Maybe I was 5 beers into a 6-pack.... sheesh...  maybe I need some grammer work.....

[Kevin125 4,772]

oh.. and by the way... I've been told I can sometimes over think things.

 

Sometimes that's good...

 

sometimes not so much.....

[Kevin125 4,772]

I got it from here: http://ballotpedia.org/New_Jersey_General_Assembly_elections,_2013

 

Scroll down to "District 38." It says Eustice and Lagana ran as democrats, and beat republicans Fragala and Scarpa by a combined 900-1000 votes. Am I reading this incorrectly?

 

Right.. I was confused when I wasn't seeing the R's anywhere and what i thought was listed as a R loser was really the other D winner.  Got it.  I didn't re-do the math, but that sounds right.  All good.

 

But there are some new R's running.  Which I thought was odd since some were so friggin' close.

[Kevin125 4,772]

Also, I've starting asking gunshops and other retailers, if we had some sort of small, stand up leaflet holder, would they take a look at it and consider letting us place it in their store.

 

First FFL said sure.. No surprise.  Will feel out some other retail places.  Not sure we want to do a GOTV for anti's... I want them to thing the election is on a Friday in December.  But we may get some exposure in more generic locations if in fact we have a flyer to put out.

[Newtonian 453]

oh.. and by the way... I've been told I can sometimes over think things.

 

Sometimes that's good...

 

sometimes not so much.....

It's almost always better, however, than not having any real plan. 

 

 

 

We have five and a half months. I'm thinking of drawing up a to-do list. What is the best way to disseminate it? Is there any way to set up a private, password-secured forum somewhere for free? Or do you'all think we should keep everything in the open for now?  Email? Everybody by now now knows my email address, my profession, and my wife's maiden name

[1LtCAP 4,263]

oh.. and by the way... I've been told I can sometimes over think things.

 

Sometimes that's good...

 

sometimes not so much.....

over thinking things is ALWAYS a good thing. 'cept when you're trying to figure out women. then over thinking is a bad thing. very bad.

[Newtonian 453]

So far so good.

 

Next we need some legal advice. Any lawyers reading this? Please post answers here and message me privately with your credentials/details. I will vet you but win/lose/draw I will not post any personal information about you or say where the information came from unless you indicate it's OK.

 

Here are my questions (any others please suggest):

 

Are there any legal restrictions, requirements, etc. for the following?

 

* Private citizens or loosely affiliated individuals campaigning through phone, mail for particular candidates

* Private citizens or loosely affiliated individuals unofficially connected campaigning through phone, mail, for particular candidates

* All of the above leaving literature at places of business urging customers to vote; urging customers to vote for specific candidates

* Utilizing the resources of out-of-state businesses to urge voters to vote? To urge voters to vote for specific candidates? E.g. Cabela's sends post cards the week before the election asking customers to vote; ...asking customers to vote for specific candidates

* A loosely affiliated group of citizens latching onto the campaigns of specific candidates, using their resources to mail, call, etc. prospective voters, regarding any of the above

* A loosely affiliated group of citizens requesting and receiving help from national organizations for mail, phone, door-to-door campaigns to get out the vote; on behalf of specific candidates

 

Please, unless you are a lawyer or veteran of political campaigns do not respond to this post. If you are and you respond, please cite chapter and verse. 

[Kevin125 4,772]

Some of that info is probably on the state election website. I will take a look later today. An opinion from a lawyer would be best though. But we can probably get a pretty good idea about what can be done with and without some sort of registration for individuals and groups.

[Kevin125 4,772]

over thinking things is ALWAYS a good thing. 'cept when you're trying to figure out women. then over thinking is a bad thing. very bad.

Lol...

[DeerSlayer 241]

What if any seats come up for election in June? I've been seeing signs around Sussex County already. I'm assuming these are for the first week of June. Primarys & school boards??? then the actual elections are November correct?

[Kevin125 4,772]

Some Mayoral elections are happening on June 2nd.

[Kevin125 4,772]

Ok, I looked around the NJ Election Law Enforcement Commission's web site. A lot of stuff there about state employees and corporation rules. But I couldn't find anything about the political activity of individuals or groups of people other than limits on monetary contributions to candidates and PACs. So I'm not sure what rules or limitations may apply to what's being talked about here. Or if any specific rules even apply. Laws don't allow things...they disallow. So if it ain't mentioned, you can do it.

 

Will keep looking but someone with experience needs to sort this out.

[Newtonian 453]

I've been absent because I wanted something positive to report to those following this thread.

 

After two days of trying to reach them by phone I decided to email the GOP powers that be in Trenton. My next step, if they don't respond, is to walk down to my Congressman's office and ask him to intercede. I met Scott Garrett at a birthday party about 23 years ago. If you think he's conservative I should tell you that I frightened him...and not only by my looks.

 

This was my email to the NJ GOP:

 

I and a few like minded individuals have been formulating a strategy that could potentially swing several assembly seats in the upcoming midterm elections. Our approach involves recruiting a specific interest group to work in vulnerable districts, as identified by results in the 2013 elections. We could provide as many as 50 volunteers -- perhaps more -- who will work for the sole purpose of overcoming voter apathy in Assembly districts 2, 14, 38, and perhaps 2-3 others, as well as Senate districts 14, 18 and 38. 

 

I would appreciate if I could formally present this plan to an appropriate state-wide GOP official, and perhaps to people in the districts I mentioned. We could perhaps communicate by phone/email followed by an in-person meeting.

 

I look forward to hearing from you.

 

Sincerely,

 

Benedict Arnold

2nd Amendment Traitor and Commie Spy

[Newtonian 453]

I just downloaded the recent Assembly primary results. You can find them here. Since several heads are usually better than one -- none in my case -- I'm going to ask that you check my reasoning here and make suggestions.

 

I've cut/pasted the names of the two Republican winners in each of my "vulnerable" districts. While you're reading the results please note if you find anything interesting, for example other districts where the turnout was reasonably close for Republicans and Democrats, and which despite being excluded from my original list might in fact be added based on Tuesday's numbers.

 

For example, District 18 (one of my original vulnerable districts) where Republicans lost both seats by fewer than 1000 votes in 2013, the Republicans out-drew the Democrat primary candidates substantially. This one is ripe, my friends.

 

Next step is to get in touch with the campaigns of these individuals and come up with some strategy other than the very vague "get out the vote." I will get in touch with my guy, Parker Space, and see if his staff can help with contact information.

 

Here's the list:

 

 

District 2

 

Chris Brown

15 S. SOMERSET AVENUE

VENTNOR, NJ 08406

 

Will Pauls

435 HIGHLAND DRIVE

MAYS LANDING, NJ 08330

 

District 14

 

David C. Jones

2360 HIGHWAY 33 Apt-Unit 202

ROBBINSVILLE, NJ 08691

 

Philip R. Kaufman

2 VERNON AVENUE

MONROE TOWNSHIP, NJ 08831

 

District 18

 

Synnove Bakke

105 OLD BRIDGE TURNPIKE

EAST BRUNSWICK, NJ 08816

 

Teresa Rose Hutchison

38 VIRGINIA STREET

SOUTH RIVER, NJ 08882

 

 

District 38

 

Mark DiPisa

P.O. BOX 15

DUMONT, NJ 07628

 

ANTHONY CAPPOLA

P.O. BOX 15

DUMONT, NJ 07628

[Newtonian 453]

My letter to Assemblyman Parker Space:

 

Dear Mr. Space,

 

Congratulations to you and Ms. Phoebus on great campaigns. Good luck in November. Between us you probably don't need it, but as you know your fellow Republican candidates in other districts do.

 

Several of my associates have been thinking of ways to help 2015 Republican assembly candidates in vulnerable districts listed below. The basic strategy is to go through various sportsman and firearm groups, shops, organizations, and businesses to urge them to vote in November and bring one or two like-minded people with them to the polls. 

 

As you are aware voter turnout in November 2013 was a mere 35 or so percent. We believe that with modest effort we could inspire NJ sports enthusiasts, numbering roughly 1 million, to tip the scales this November in favor of Republicans. For example in District 38 both Republican candidates in 2013 lost combined by less than 1,000 votes.

 

I am asking if your staff could provide me with contact details for the campaigns of the Republican primary winners listed below. I'd like to bounce some ideas off them and perhaps organize a volunteer effort to help them in the upcoming election.

 

Sincerely,

 

Benedict Arnold

666 Treason Trail

Potemkin Village, NJ 

 

(followed by my contact details and the "vulnerable district" candidates)

[JC_68Westy 1,024]

No, I'm not suggesting one vote is indicative. As you mentioned, it goes beyond party affiliation so I used the 10-rd mag cap bill as an easy to grab litmus test.

 

There was only one Republican who voted for the 10-rd cap and he is not running this year so primaries are a moot issue.

 

Following mipa's idea, there's some low hanging fruit in terms of canvassing for votes at ranges and gun stores. Banger's/SJSC is in competitive District 4. Shooter's is next to District 2. GFH is near 38 and 27. CJ/OB are near 14/18.

 

Registration and information drives showing how their legislator voted for the 10-rd mag cap at these locations (with their permission of course) would at least be a start even if it's informal chit chat.

I believe that Shooters is in District 9, not 2

[Newtonian 453]

What if any seats come up for election in June? I've been seeing signs around Sussex County already. I'm assuming these are for the first week of June. Primarys & school boards??? then the actual elections are November correct?

All the assembly seats are in contention, primaries and general election in five months; no senate seats.