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Bitcoin...

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On 1/28/2019 at 9:53 PM, Sniper said:

Yep, time to catch that falling knife:

 

bcoin.jpg

If you had purchased when you posted this and sold today you would be up 50%.  Of course in another four months you could be done 50% from your purchase price (or up over 100%). Who knows.

As I said before, don't invest more in Bitcoin than you are willing to lose.  It's a highly speculative bet in an essentially unregulated market.

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On 1/2/2019 at 10:46 PM, Barms said:

I’ll save this.  

Probably too soon for this.   (Can’t tell If I posted the quote right on my phone it was capt 14k telling me I was wrong). But for all my haters.   One of the great things that can come from a “bubble”. Is that it can attract those who would not have known about it if not for the bubble.   If you were accumulating under $5k you’re feeling pretty good right now.  If you sold, you should never have bought. (Options that never expire should never be sold.).  I will say this again.  The assymetrical outcome of this thing is warranted the risk.  100% down and 10,000% up.    

One thing I have “matured” over the past year in arguing about this thing is I’m just gonna admit it’s a Ponzi scheme.   Fine I’ve said it.  It’s a Ponzi scheme.  That way we don’t have to argue about it anymore.   “I have a small portion of my portfolio in Ponzi schemes and bubbles,  because frankly the outcomes can be pretty huge”

my Ponzi scheme prediction for 2021 price is $50,000.  (This is based on a stock-to-flow analysis that has a 90% R^2 when backtesting gold and silver too.  DM me if you want that study)

Whats more important?  “The truth”  or assymetrical outcomes?   (And save me the lottery ticket outcome argument.  It’s not the same thing).

Long Ponzi. Short monetary policy.

im at peace with the vocal non believers now because I’m with you it’s a farce, it’s fake, it’s a Ponzi, there is no need for a digital global currency.  I’m in it strictly for the greed now.   :-)    3 cheers for global monetary non censorship non inflationary Ponzi scheme!

 

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On 4/17/2019 at 7:36 PM, gleninjersey said:

If you had purchased when you posted this and sold today you would be up 50%.  Of course in another four months you could be done 50% from your purchase price (or up over 100%). Who knows.

Exactly, who knows... What if you purchased a year ago (when it was at $8,274) and sold today? When there are no controls, it's worse than going to Atlantic City.

14 minutes ago, Barms said:

One of the great things that can come from a “bubble”. Is that it can attract those who would not have known about it if not for the bubble.   If you were accumulating under $5k you’re feeling pretty good right now.

What if you started accumulating when the mania hit a year and a half ago, and it was at $16K, where are you now? How would you be feeling?btc.jpg

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11 hours ago, Barms said:

 I will say this again.  The assymetrical outcome of this thing is warranted the risk.  100% down and 10,000% up.    

Please, tell me what investment doesn't have the potential of 100% down, or infinity % up? Everything COULD spiral uncontrollably upward. It won't though. Nothing ever has. Arguably, outside of having applied that reasoning to early mining, bitcoin idled at about $1000 a coin for years. Then it went up to 19k. So it peaked at 2000%. IT is currently at ~300%. Your estimates of a 10,000% upside are pretty far off.  

11 hours ago, Barms said:

One thing I have “matured” over the past year in arguing about this thing is I’m just gonna admit it’s a Ponzi scheme.  

It meets no definition of a ponzi scheme. 

 

11 hours ago, Barms said:

im at peace with the vocal non believers now because I’m with you it’s a farce, it’s fake, it’s a Ponzi, there is no need for a digital global currency.  I’m in it strictly for the greed now.   :-)    3 cheers for global monetary non censorship non inflationary Ponzi scheme!

 

But have you made any money? 

The problem with all the coin markets is that they are unregulated and the capitalization is small enough that pretty much any investment bank and quite a few hedge funds can manipulate it on any given day. So the game becomes can you tell when they are going to move. Coin markets other than bitcoin are also very vulnerable to straight up fraud. 

Between the fraud potential and the fact any time there's a big move, governments look at the market for regulation means there is a chilling effect on forcing big moves. 

So you have to front run the big players, and you have  to hope the chilling effect hasn't permanently devalued the market. 

 

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I made money investing in oil.... it doesnt seem much different. Buy low, sell high... don't get greedy. Once a trend forms you adjust your expectations... 

You have to be an idiot to buy bitcoin when it was upwards for 12k+.

Investment 101 tells people not jump on a moving train that left the station days ago..... your gains will be smaller, and the risk is substantially higher..... 

Would i invest in it? No. But most STOCK investments are nothing but gambling at the casino tables. 

I still clear of Bitcoin because it's not regulated, and the concept of a Bitcoin wallet is just way to risky to me. 

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The Ponzi just broke $6k.  I’ll check back at $10k.   Remember.   A small part of your portfolio should be in Ponzi schemes.  The payoffs could be could be good.  :-)

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Guys cmon.  Stop it with the “but what about the $8k?  The $12k?  The $20k?   It’s so infantile to judge the performance of anything by the last absolute highest peak.  Like you think the only entry point of anything is at the peak?   So amazon is up like 80,000%.   But it’s off the peak.   If someone said to you I own Amazon are you gonna call them sucker because you think their only entry point was the peak?  Please.   Stop it with the “but what about the prior high price?”  Talk.

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Bring the heat though.  It’s all good.  I love you guys.   I haven’t been on here a while.  Nor shooting in a long time.  Damn kid stuff takes all my time.  I’m just trying to really plead a good thing here.  I think the outcome POSSIBLITY is worth the risk.  I don’t want to change anybody’s mind. If it’s not for you it’s not for you.   I need a little more risk in my portfolio.  

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On 6/20/2019 at 9:03 PM, gleninjersey said:

What's funny (not funny) is that in any real SHTF scenario nobody is going to care about Bitcoin.  Or the US dollar.

Hard to use Bitcoin if we go back to the stone age.

On 1/28/2019 at 9:27 PM, carl_g said:

Time to buy!!

If you bought that day, it's increased 200% since then. Very nice profit.

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Banks are closed tomorrow.

Bitcoin is never closed.

hot dogs and beers for the fans of the freedom money.

disclaimer:  it’s a Ponzi     I always gotta throw that in there.

 

 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Barms said:

Banks are closed tomorrow.

Bitcoin is never closed.

hot dogs and beers for the fans of the freedom money.

disclaimer:  it’s a Ponzi     I always gotta throw that in there.

So, how difficult is it to buy a hot dog with bitcoin?

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If you think medium of exchange is the primary purpose of “money” you got a lot to read up on history wise.  And I say that not as an insult.  The perfect money is 1. Store of value.  2.  Unit of account.  3.  Medium of exchange.  It’s impossible to be all 3 but What the hell good is buying a hot dog if the purchasing power is declining?

you can store your assets in money that buys hot dogs   I’ll take money that is not inflatable or censorable    Oh, I forgot to say the ponzi money  

 

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On 7/3/2019 at 11:13 PM, Sniper said:

You forgot, or stable...

 

Since you posted that it hit almost 13k and backe off to 10,600 currently.

i wouldn't recommend it for you "hot dog buying" currency / carrying around money.  But as a highly speculative investments that you would be comfortable with going to zero.

I don't consider this a Ponzi scheme but it is subject to market manipulation due it's unregulated nature.  Put then the federal government manipulates the U.S. Dollar all the time.  And in many ways many don't ever realize.

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1 hour ago, gleninjersey said:

Since you posted that it hit almost 13k and backe off to 10,600 currently.

Does that fit the definition of unstable?

1 hour ago, gleninjersey said:

But as a highly speculative investments that you would be comfortable with going to zero.

That's the ONLY way to consider it. Here's the visual:

tenor.gif

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On 11/30/2017 at 9:58 PM, raz-0 said:

bitcoin is not hard to understand, it's just been largely misrepresented. 

To summarize the technical bits simply, and not fully correctly, it's basically counting by a very very hard method that prevents you from skipping ahead. For every unit counted, another bitcoin exists. 

People would like you to think that because the scarcity is built in and enforced, it will be a stable currency. This is not true because for this to occur, the total valuation of the bitcoin supply would have to be immense. Right now at $10k a pop it is about $300 billion. This is small enough that you can effectively manipulate the market with about $120-300 million dollars. This means it isn't stable. 

People would like you to believe that it's awesome for paying for criminal goods. This is not true because it is anonymous. Hell, bitcoin is WAY more traceable to a person's bitcoin wallet than cash is to an individual. However, it does get you around bank's reporting laws. However, unless you got into them early and cme bitcoin futures exchange fees mined them, or traded a lot of material goods into them, you aren't able to really avoid them because most of the exchanges that will turn bitcoins into cash and vice versa are going to have a record of it, and have to report the large cash transaction. 

Having an understanding of bitcoin, or block chain in general doesn't mean you are involved in criminal endeavors. It probably means you are a geek, but that's about it. 

 

 

thanks this was really helpful.

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I think the concept of Bitcoin and other cryptos is gaining acceptance.  Not sure I really have a complete understanding of it, but I made a small speculative investment in an ETF that holds cryptos, and it doubled in a little over a month.  

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On 12/27/2020 at 11:29 AM, RUTGERS95 said:

what can push bitcoin is gov't moving to digital currency.  If that happens, bitcoin and others move 5-7x overnight.  I'd like to buy in but it's been on a tare and want to get it cheaper

Looks like doesn't need government moving to digital currency to push it.  

At 32,500 now.  Up al.ost 10x from Sniper's Jan 28 post.

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