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Autonomous Driving Vehicles – Arriving Anytime Soon?

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As a car-guy, I enjoy the active involvement of driving a car, especially if it is a rare, old, fun, fast or just plain different type of car, truck, van or vehicle.  Recently, I have been discussing with friends, co-workers and neighbors, some who are also car-folks and some who are not, the evolving and improving technology that will ultimately lead to self-driving cars, (aka: autonomous vehicles).  Much has been written about how rapidly these autonomous vehicles may come to market, with thought provoking articles from both Dan Neil / WSJ and Mark Rechtin / Motor Trend, which I agree with.  But that is only part of the equation of whether or not we will see them on the road anytime soon.  I am not going to hold my breath….

Some folks can hardly wait for that time to come, while others, such as me are not as enthusiastic, as well as harbor concerns and doubts about a number of the challenges involved. While the concept of being whisked from point A to point B in the privacy of a small private vehicle, not shared with others, where we do not actively have to operate it, is a very compelling and appealing idea.  One could argue that work productivity could conceivably increase by turning commuting time into work time.  Or it may allow for continued personal time to eat, read or sleep.  I will be the first to admit that a lengthy driving commute rapidly becomes very tedious, strenuous, tense and aggravating due to circumstances beyond one’s control including delays due to construction, accidents and other distracted drivers.

But I do relish the sheer fun and enjoyment of getting behind the wheel of a fun vehicle and taking it for a pleasure drive, preferably on non-congested and scenic roads.  It is even more fun if the car is an open roadster or convertible where you have the wind in your face and hair and can hear nature and the wonderful engine and exhaust sounds of your car’s internal combustion engine.

Alas, I do not think that I have to worry about self-driving cars replacing our current crop of driver-required cars or trucks anytime soon.  As others have speculated, we will most likely see long-haul trucks traveling on interstate highways as the first driver-less autonomous driving vehicles.  This transportation evolution is not going to be delayed due to the rapidly improving technological advances being made by individual automobile manufacturers such as Tesla and consortium's and joint-ventures that include GM, Daimler, BMW, Audi, VW, Nissan, Toyota.  Autonomous driving vehicles will be delayed due to a number of important factors including: costs; legal; infrastructure, weather, and human impatience and unpredictability.  Let me explain:

Infrastructure – We all know that most of our secondary and primary roadway network is in less than an optimal state of repair, let alone the horrible condition of our grid of urban and suburban residential streets.   I read that there are over 4 million miles of roads in the US, with only about 2.7 million miles of those roads being paved.  The current technology for autonomous vehicles require roadways that are in good shape and are well marked.  This requirement will greatly limit exactly where autonomous vehicles can actually travel.

Costs – The NHTA estimates that the US spends roughly $100 billion per year just to maintain the roads we have as they are, filling potholes and re-painting lane markings, etc.  Unless our dysfunctional Congress is willing to work together and generate a massive infrastructure improvement bill, estimated to cost over $1 trillion, we will not have roads that will accommodate autonomous vehicles.

Weather – At this point, no autonomous technology has been developed that can successfully cope with driving on snow-covered roads where lane markings are obscured and the snow/freezing rain driving conditions would interfere with the vehicle’s radar and laser sensors, as well as cameras.  Just think how obstructed your back up camera image is during a snow storm and driving in sloppy slushy snow.  It is possible to install sensors in the roads but that will be very costly.

Legal – Since the US is such a litigious society, we know that accidents involving autonomous vehicles will raise new legal questions, primarily focused on fault, especially involving a fatal accident.  The automobile insurance industry working with the tort lawyers will have to figure out the challenging issue of who is at fault vs. no-fault if the car has no driver.  Are manufacturers willing to assume some part of the legal liability?  I tend to doubt many will want to or be able to afford to.

Human Impatience – We all know how impatient we humans are, especially in the NYC/NNJ metro region.  Most of us drive faster than the posted speed limits, usually when conditions permit, but not always.  We will pass stopped vehicles and pass slower moving vehicles, when possible.  So far, with the beta-testing that Uber is doing in selected cities around the US, their specially equipped Volvo V90 SUV’s do not exceed the speed limit and do not pass stopped vehicles in front of them.  I heard from drivers in Pittsburgh, (one of the Uber beta cities), that local drivers hate to be stuck behind any of these vehicles since it greatly slows down their trip.  Will owners and occupants of autonomous vehicles be any more patient when in traffic….?

Human Unpredictability – How will the labyrinth orchestra of lasers, radar and cameras all connected to a computer that controls the acceleration, braking and steering of a car deal with erratic and/or impaired drivers of other vehicles, let alone jaywalking pedestrians, especially young children?  Will the computer just slow everything down?  Is this the right solution?  Is a slower commute or trip going to be a result of autonomous cars usurping driver-required cars?

The combination of all these factors and issues make me sleep well at night knowing that we probably will not see a significant number of autonomous vehicles on American roads for the next 20 years.  But alas, it will eventually happen…..

AVB-AMG

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I’m about inspired with the self-driven cars as much as I like the smart gun idea, you could have both. That said it might be a good idea for these people that like to feed their face,  text, or talk on their cell while driving. What’s amazing to me is the number of people I see in these high-end vehicles driving & talking while on their cells so they must be too lazy to configure the Bluetooth. Then you have the people that climb into their vehicles,  new or old,  in front of their homes or in a store parking lot that fire up their cell phones then turn-key and go. It’s mind boggling to me why they can’t make the call before they start their drive. So yea probably a good idea to stick those A-holes in one of these self-driven deals just to get their dumb azzes off the road.

In any case I’ve been driving a few winters myself and as a CLD holder with the motorcycle endorsement it’s fair to say I enjoy driving too. I do think the Tesla is a very good looking vehicle but I’m priced out that market plus we keep our vehicles until they can’t go anymore. I have an 18 year old car in my driveway with a little left in the tank so until that expires won’t be buying anything soon.

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i didn't read the whole post. can't read wall-o-text this early. that said......whether or not we like them, we'll have em within the next 5 to 10 years.

 mostly younger people, just as many of them seem to not want the responsibility of owning a home.....they also do not wish to drive themselves. i see many who'll just take an uber or lyft.......by the time most of us are too old to drive, there'll be pretty many self driving cars on the road.

 what do you all think that this lane holding, auto-braking, "smart" cruise control stuff was about? you didn't really truly think it was for your safety, did ya? after all.....no. it was about getting people used to the idea of their car doing things for them.

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I might be proven wrong, but I cannot see a self driving car ever working in NYC.  NYC streets are a sea of pedestrians, and they don't obey traffic light, they just go when they see a chance.  That means in the midtown area a self driving car will never be able to make a right turn as it will just sit and wait forever.

I predict that self driving will have the greatest impact, and quickly, on long haul trucking.  There are huge cost savings to eliminating a driver on long haul trucks and allowing the trucks to run for more hours a day - that is big money.  In the short run they might need a driver for the first and last few miles, but for the entire interstate highway trip this technology will take over faster than many think.

I was having the discussion about snow and ice being an issue with a young person just a few weeks ago and he astutely pointed out that my thinking was wrong.  I was thinking about the visual problems, but he pointed out that is a human flaw since sensors do not have to use the visual spectrum and can "see" through the snow and ice.

 

 

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On 2/2/2018 at 8:50 AM, Howard said:

I might be proven wrong, but I cannot see a self driving car ever working in NYC.  NYC streets are a sea of pedestrians, and they don't obey traffic light, they just go when they see a chance.  That means in the midtown area a self driving car will never be able to make a right turn as it will just sit and wait forever.

I predict that self driving will have the greatest impact, and quickly, on long haul trucking.  There are huge cost savings to eliminating a driver on long haul trucks and allowing the trucks to run for more hours a day - that is big money.  In the short run they might need a driver for the first and last few miles, but for the entire interstate highway trip this technology will take over faster than many think.

I was having the discussion about snow and ice being an issue with a young person just a few weeks ago and he astutely pointed out that my thinking was wrong.  I was thinking about the visual problems, but he pointed out that is a human flaw since sensors do not have to use the visual spectrum and can "see" through the snow and ice.

Howard:

You make some valid points and I concur...

I agree that super pedestrian-clogged urban streets like NYC, will be almost impossible for autonomous vehicles to work successfully.

I also agree that it makes sense that long-haul trucks will most likely be the first vehicles to see the implementation of autonomous driving features, with the caveats you mention.

But I disagree with your young friend's assertion about sensors being able to "see" through snow and ice.  The problem in those conditions is two-fold.  The snow and ice covering the sensors AND the road features they need to "sense" or see and use as a guide, such as painted lane markers and lines, street curbs and various signage that would also be obstructed and covered by snow and ice.  In that scenario and under those conditions the autonomous vehicle will be inoperable, with the technology developed so far.

AVB-AMG

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56 minutes ago, Howard said:

I might be proven wrong, but I cannot see a self driving car ever working in NYC.  NYC streets are a sea of pedestrians, and they don't obey traffic light, they just go when they see a chance.  That means in the midtown area a self driving car will never be able to make a right turn as it will just sit and wait forever.

I predict that self driving will have the greatest impact, and quickly, on long haul trucking.  There are huge cost savings to eliminating a driver on long haul trucks and allowing the trucks to run for more hours a day - that is big money.  In the short run they might need a driver for the first and last few miles, but for the entire interstate highway trip this technology will take over faster than many think.

I was having the discussion about snow and ice being an issue with a young person just a few weeks ago and he astutely pointed out that my thinking was wrong.  I was thinking about the visual problems, but he pointed out that is a human flaw since sensors do not have to use the visual spectrum and can "see" through the snow and ice.

 

 

you haven't seen the pedestrian spotting yet, have ya?

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I recently browsed a copy of Motor Trend while at the barber shop.  Only then did I realize how much research and money is being devoted to self driving cars. In addition to the concerns expressed in that magazine and elsewhere; one overriding concern immediately came to my mind.  One that I had not seen expressed elsewhere.  That concern is MOTION SICKNESS; something that I have had to manage throughout my entire lifetime.   As long as I am driving, I am fine (even a boat or jet ski). The thought of being forced someday to always be a passenger raises real concerns for me.  I would have no way(short of medication) to preclude becoming nauseous. I am sure this would affect many others as well.

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I was listening to a podcast about these vehicles recently and they had this thought experiment where, basically, Imagine your car is approaching an intersection at speed where a bunch of pedestrians entered against a red light...does your car actually perform the calculation "swerve and possibly injure my occupant (one life) vs. plow through the intersection and maybe injure a few"? Such that your car will actually intentionally swerve into a bridge abutment or another car?

 

Probably unlikely. But unnerving.

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23 minutes ago, Shocker said:

I was listening to a podcast about these vehicles recently and they had this thought experiment where, basically, Imagine your car is approaching an intersection at speed where a bunch of pedestrians entered against a red light...does your car actually perform the calculation "swerve and possibly injure my occupant (one life) vs. plow through the intersection and maybe injure a few"? Such that your car will actually intentionally swerve into a bridge abutment or another car?

 

Probably unlikely. But unnerving.

Spock car? Interesting 

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My $0.02

We may have them sooner than 10-15 years, but if we do they won't be ready. 

To date, despite idiots on the internet claiming otherwise, they aren't very good at driving. Or, more precisely, we think humans are way worse at driving then they are. Google are the only ones who have put up or shut up with data on incidents. By my last evaluation, they are running about 89.X% of human driver performance by mile. So at best you are looking at more but possibly less severe accidents. (really people are quite good a driving. Every time you notice that asshole being an asshole, you ignore the other 50 people on the road near you that kept that asshole from causing tragedy. The average human driver goes about 110k miles between accidents, even if it doesn't seem like it. Google's algorithm is at about 98,000 and change between them)

That being said, that record is based on:

-no testing in significant rain, just drizzle and mostly not that. 

-no testing on damaged roads. 

-no testing in snow or ice. 

A big tell on this is Ford's position. They shit canned retail autonomous vehicles in the near future primarily because to be decent, they need multiple sensor input, and maintaining that in bad weather is nearly impossible to date without making something heinously awful to look at and package. Secondly, programming behavior that is safe for roads that don't behave like textbook roads increases complexity, and that is still an issue. Combine those two and it just isn't going to be ready. 

That was 2017. 2018, and Ford feels compelled to start selling them in 2021. Well what changed? One they got some protections by easing of regulations. So it won't be their fault when they fail. Additionally, they are only selling to commercial buyers. Likely because they can still see value in a vehicle they agree to only deploy in certain conditions. Being able to fire all your drivers in arizona can still save you money. Telling a retail buyer they can't drive it six months of the year, or drive it to visit grandma in a wintery state won't fly. 

Additionally, there are very practical issues with widespread adoption that will likely resolve, but not real soon. First is the level of computing power needed for the AI. To be good, this is likely to not be something you can combine with a really efficient electric car or an affordable electric car. It may even cause issues with hybrids and/or gas engines making CAFE goals. As an example, the tesla model S barely has the compute to do the worst version of this stuff, and it dwarfs most vehicles in that department. If used in a coal powered region, it's not even as fuel efficient as the average midsize sedan with a gas engine in the current market. Better batteries, better computing, or eased regulations will make this less problematic over time, but it will take time. 

 

 

 

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5 hours ago, fishnut said:

I will not comply! I can't stand to be drivin by someone else let alone a computer. 

Yes I know it's a control issue but no one is perfect 

fishnut:

I am not so sure you should be so quick to dismiss being driven by someone else....
I can see you and your wife and family, along with all of your long guns, skis, snow boards, fishing poles and other outdoor gear being chauffeured to your wilderness destination in style in one of these stretched Wrangler Jeeps from Ohana Limousine of Linden, NJ:

AVB-AMG

maxresdefault.jpg

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13 minutes ago, AVB-AMG said:

fishnut:

I am not so sure you should be so quick to dismiss being driven by someone else....
I can see you and your wife and family, along with all of your long guns, skis, snow boards, fishing poles and other outdoor gear being chauffeured to your wilderness destination in style in one of these stretched Wrangler Jeeps from Ohana Limousine of Linden, NJ:

AVB-AMG

maxresdefault.jpg

Perfect.........ill drive and the wife, kid, and dogs in back with the gear. That divider is sound proof right?

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1 hour ago, Shocker said:

I was listening to a podcast about these vehicles recently and they had this thought experiment where, basically, Imagine your car is approaching an intersection at speed where a bunch of pedestrians entered against a red light...does your car actually perform the calculation "swerve and possibly injure my occupant (one life) vs. plow through the intersection and maybe injure a few"? Such that your car will actually intentionally swerve into a bridge abutment or another car?

 

Probably unlikely. But unnerving.

This is another ethical dilemma....
In your stated hypothetical scenario, does the autonomous vehicle's AI computer make that split second choice decision to sacrifice itself and possibly its 1-4 occupants or possibly a larger number of distracted pedestrians crossing against the light?  
Hmmmm...

As a sidebar for a related scenario, last December I was driving with my wife in Manhattan traveling west on 43rd St. through Times Square after going out to dinner on a Friday night.  At the intersection of Broadway/6th Ave. and 43rd St. I had a green light.  Sure enough, a group of pedestrians walking in both directions on the sidewalk perpendicular to 43rd St., entered the street, walking against their red light.  I saw this when I was around 400 feet away driving only around 20 mph and honked my horn to give them a "heads up" that I (a motor vehicle) was traveling towards them and hopefully they would realize that I had a green light.  Of course, they ignored me and continued walking against their red light.  In that group were two NYC policemen walking with the crowd.  They walked up to my now stopped vehicle and asked me why I honked my horn?  I responded politely telling them what I wrote above.  They said that pedestrians ALWAYS have the right of way in Manhattan NO MATTER WHAT, and that if they wanted too they could write me a ticket for honking my horn.  This being NYC, I kept my cool and decided very quickly that it was not worth arguing with them and their distorted logic and just politely apologized.  They were satisfied by just giving me a verbal warning and once the pedestrians had finished crossing the street, I very slowly proceeded westward, very glad to be getting out of Manhattan...!  So how would a LEO address an autonomous vehicle that may be programmed as a safety precaution, to honk its horn in that same situation???

AVB-AMG.  

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Once places like NYC have self driving cars there will be face reading scanners at every intersection.  If you cross against a light you'll be instantly fined.

Facial recognition scanning will be required of all citizens.  For the safety and efficiency of society.  During the winter if your face is covered, the RFD chip injected into you will read know your identity.

Won't be able to fine the robot cars to generate.revenue.  So will have to fine pedestrians.

 

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8 minutes ago, gleninjersey said:

Once places like NYC have self driving cars there will be face reading scanners at every intersection.  If you cross against a light you'll be instantly fined.

Facial recognition scanning will be required of all citizens.  For the safety and efficiency of society.  During the winter if your face is covered, the RFD chip injected into you will read know your identity.

Won't be able to fine the robot cars to generate.revenue.  So will have to fine pedestrians.

 

And this chip , which is currently being tested on your pets, will be used for our safety. Then we will become fuel! Only Keanu can save us then. Or over and over again?

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I hate letting other people drive. Always have, always will. Watching other people drive - be it as a passenger or seeing them in their car - scares me more than most things. Having seen people reading a book, shaving with a bic razor, applying makeup, turned around to deal with kids, or the old standbys like talking/texting - while driving, it makes me wonder how anyone survives a day on these roads.

Let those people have autonomous cars, and leave me to drive my own.

I hear of a lot of people who want this technology, I will hold out til the bitter end.

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For another perspective on this topic, here is an interesting article and its link:

AVB-AMG

THE WIRED GUIDE TO SELF-DRIVING CARS

How a chaotic skunkworks race in the desert launched what's poised to be a runaway global industry.

By: Alex Davies

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On 2/2/2018 at 2:53 PM, raz-0 said:

My $0.02

We may have them sooner than 10-15 years, but if we do they won't be ready. 

Additionally, there are very practical issues with widespread adoption that will likely resolve, but not real soon. First is the level of computing power needed for the AI. To be good, this is likely to not be something you can combine with a really efficient electric car or an affordable electric car. It may even cause issues with hybrids and/or gas engines making CAFE goals. As an example, the tesla model S barely has the compute to do the worst version of this stuff, and it dwarfs most vehicles in that department. If used in a coal powered region, it's not even as fuel efficient as the average midsize sedan with a gas engine in the current market. Better batteries, better computing, or eased regulations will make this less problematic over time, but it will take time. 

raz-0:

You make several very good points, but the last one quoted above is one that I was not really aware of but is just one more significant challenge in the design and production of an efficient and affordable autonomous driving vehicle.  Here is an article I read recently that reinforces the point you made:

AVB-AMG

SELF-DRIVING CARS USE CRAZY AMOUNTS OF POWER, AND IT'S BECOMING A PROBLEM

by Ack Stewart / Wired
Feb. 6, 2018

https://www.wired.com/story/self-driving-cars-power-consumption-nvidia-chip/

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