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SCOTUSBlog: Judge Kavanaugh and the Second Amendment

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Judge Kavanaugh and the Second Amendment

http://www.scotusblog.com/2018/07/judge-kavanaugh-and-the-second-amendment/

"....Kennedy sided with his more conservative colleagues in finding a Second Amendment right to have a handgun in the home, and there is no reason to believe that Judge Brett Kavanaugh, if confirmed, is likely to disagree"

"....We know from his recorded dissents from the denial of review that Thomas would vote to review and overturn some existing gun laws, and we know that Gorsuch – at least to some extent – agrees with him. But it takes four votes to grant review in a case, and we do not know whether Roberts and Alito also agree with Thomas but have opted not to say so publicly, or whether they instead are content to leave the court’s gun-rights jurisprudence as it is."

".... just this week, the 9th Circuit struck down Hawaii’s ban on carrying weapons openly outside of the home; even if the case goes to the full 9th Circuit, the losing party is almost certain to ask the Supreme Court to weigh in."

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21 minutes ago, NJGF said:

"....Kennedy sided with his more conservative colleagues in finding a Second Amendment right to have a handgun in the home, and there is no reason to believe that Judge Brett Kavanaugh, if confirmed, is likely to disagree"

Cool, but you forgot to quote the most troubling part concerning Kavanaugh.

Let me help you:

 

"...A more significant question, though, is whether a Supreme Court that included Kavanaugh might take a more expansive view of the Second Amendment and strike down some existing gun laws. Kavanaugh’s track record suggests that he might be willing to do so for at least some gun laws, although he does not regard the Second Amendment as creating an absolute right to have or carry a gun. It’s not clear, though, what effect Kavanaugh’s views would have on the court: The answer may hinge on the votes of his colleagues, and in particular Chief Justice John Roberts and Justice Samuel Alito."

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Sure, we understand that, but the point a lot of us have have made is that there were much  safer choices.

Take Judge Willett. Is there any doubts where he stands?

 

Judge Willett dissenting on banning the interstate sale of handguns over the counter:

 

"...Constitutional scholars have dubbed the Second Amendment “the Rodney Dangerfield of the Bill of Rights.”

1 As Judge Ho relates, it is spurned as peripheral, despite being just as fundamental as the First Amendment. It is snubbed as anachronistic, despite being just as enduring as the Fourth Amendment. It is scorned as fringe, despite being just as enumerated as the other Bill of Rights guarantees.

"The Second Amendment is neither second class, nor second rate, nor second tier. The “right of the people to keep and bear Arms”2 has no need of penumbras or emanations. It’s right there, 27 words enshrined for 227 years. The core issue in this case is undeniably weighty: Does the federal criminalization of interstate handgun sales offend We the People’s “inherent right of self-defense?”

 

http://www.ca5.uscourts.gov/opinions/pub/15/15-10311-CV1.pdf

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Most people don't care as much about 2A as they do as other hot button issues. If Kavanaugh gets through with all of the Republicans it will be a major victory.

My own personal pick would have been Hardiman.

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At the risk of angering everyone, no rights are absolute. The question is where the line is drawn. Time will tell will all of the justices.

 

Shall not be infringed sounds pretty absolute to me.

 

 

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Most people don't care as much about 2A as they do as other hot button issues. If Kavanaugh gets through with all of the Republicans it will be a major victory.

My own personal pick would have been Hardiman.

 

I agree Hardiman should be the pick. If Kavanaugh doesn't answer Rand's questions correctly on 2A and 4A, Rand isn't going to vote for him. If Rand doesn't vote for him Hardiman maybe the pick after all.

 

 

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I really dislike Kavanaugh's history on the 4th amendment.  He has ruled in favor of the government in some search and seizure and privacy cases where I would have gone 180º the other way.

I wonder if Kavanaugh is the compromise candidate and the others on the list (like my favorite: Hardiman) are on the list as a threat to the democrats.  I hope Kavanaugh isn't confirmed and we can move onto one of the others.

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Question, if Kavanaugh doesn't make, I agree that Harriman is the choice.

Won't that take to  long and we will be in midterms election, with a chance of losing seats. Isn't that what the Dems want. Won't that hurt our chances more of getting someone in.

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Question, if Kavanaugh doesn't make, I agree that Harriman is the choice.
Won't that take to  long and we will be in midterms election, with a chance of losing seats. Isn't that what the Dems want. Won't that hurt our chances more of getting someone in.


GOP have zero chance of losing the Senate. I calculate a net gain of 4. Possibly as many as 7 seats.


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59 minutes ago, capt14k said:


GOP have zero chance of losing the Senate. I calculate a net gain of 4. Possibly as many as 7 seats.

If the election was today, I agree. Republicans gain seats.   Incumbents (and their parties) win elections when the economy is good or if we're winning (or appear to be winning) a war.  Incumbents lose elections when the economy is poor or if we're losing a war (or in one for too long without winning). 

Right now the economy is great.  And, we aren't at war but we're besting all of the countries on our short list of potential enemies. Right now, Republican wins look likely.

But a lot can happen in the next few months. 

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On 7/27/2018 at 1:51 PM, NJGF said:

Most people don't care as much about 2A as they do as other hot button issues. If Kavanaugh gets through with all of the Republicans it will be a major victory.

My own personal pick would have been Hardiman.

She is Trumps next pick when RBG gets pushed out.

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If the election was today, I agree. Republicans gain seats.   Incumbents (and their parties) win elections when the economy is good or if we're winning (or appear to be winning) a war.  Incumbents lose elections when the economy is poor or if we're losing a war (or in one for too long without winning). 

Right now the economy is great.  And, we aren't at war but we're besting all of the countries on our short list of potential enemies. Right now, Republican wins look likely.

But a lot can happen in the next few months. 

No matter what GOP will not lose Senate. Only Heller's Seat is in play. Dems have 10 seats in play in States Trump won. Overall Dems are defending 3x as many seats vs GOP.

 

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13 hours ago, capt14k said:

GOP have zero chance of losing the Senate. I calculate a net gain of 4. Possibly as many as 7 seats.

 

12 hours ago, maintenanceguy said:

If the election was today, I agree. Republicans gain seats.   Incumbents (and their parties) win elections when the economy is good or if we're winning (or appear to be winning) a war.  Incumbents lose elections when the economy is poor or if we're losing a war (or in one for too long without winning). 

Right now the economy is great.  And, we aren't at war but we're besting all of the countries on our short list of potential enemies. Right now, Republican wins look likely.

But a lot can happen in the next few months. 

I do not share Capt14k's confidence. Not only can a lot happen in the next few months... but I think all of these mid-term predictions are being based on how things have worked in the past. I disagree with that premise entirely! There is NOTHING about this last POTUS campaign, election, or administration that has been anything near "normal" or "predictable"... so why should we even base these next mid-terms on past mid-terms?

I know many of you feel the uprooting of past precedence and practices in Wash DC is a good thing and long overdue. I'm not arguing that point... just saying that right or wrong, many other Americans feel it's been uber-chaotic to a point of ridiculousness. There's a rising tide of Trump-Hate (or at least Trump-Burnout) that could impact Senate seats in surprising and unconventional ways. So, he needs to ram through a SCOTUS nominee NOW while we KNOW the path is clear! Even that won't be easy with such razor slim margins. I'm not trying to be a Negative Nellie... but I just base this on what I see. Hell, just turn on the TV! From morning until late at night, it's a constant flow of anti-Trump rhetoric... on cable news and MSM right through to the late-night comedy hosts... a stream of hatred, exaggeration, mockery, one-sidedness and vulgarity that NEVER would have been tolerated against President Obama (and to be fair, Trump says a lot of things that feed into the outrage). I always remind myself that MANY voters are NOT independent thinkers... or frankly, even that bright (sorry if that sounds rude). So, they will be swayed by this 24x7 brainwashing campaign. The true Trumpers will stick by him and the party...because they're turned into Fox News or Rush Limbaugh (brainwashing from the other direction) but I think all the other voters in this mid-terms are a total crap shoot. Even if just the House loses in a YUGE way, that will put wind in the sails of the Democratic party for the next Presidential election... and I'm just not convinced the Senate is so "safe" either.

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Well said Mrs P. . The world, especially America is turned upside down inside out.....nothing can be counted on as a given, too much emotion not enough reason is pushing agendas these days. Get it while you can and get Kav confirmed before midterms.  

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I do not share Capt14k's confidence. Not only can a lot happen in the next few months... but I think all of these mid-term predictions are being based on how things have worked in the past. I disagree with that premise entirely! There is NOTHING about this last POTUS campaign, election, or administration that has been anything near "normal" or "predictable"... so why should we even base these next mid-terms on past mid-terms? I know many of you feel the uprooting of past precedence and practices in Wash DC is a good thing and long overdue. I'm not arguing that point... just saying that right or wrong, many other Americans feel it's been uber-chaotic to a point of ridiculousness. There's a rising tide of Trump-Hate (or at least Trump-Burnout) that could impact Senate seats in surprising and unconventional ways. So, he needs to ram through a SCOTUS nominee NOW while we KNOW the path is clear! Even that won't be easy with such razor slim margins. I'm not trying to be a Negative Nellie... but I just base this on what I see. Hell, just turn on the TV! From morning until late at night, it's a constant flow of anti-Trump rhetoric... on cable news and MSM right through to the late-night comedy hosts... a stream of hatred, exaggeration, mockery, one-sidedness and vulgarity that NEVER would have been tolerated against President Obama (and to be fair, Trump says a lot of things that feed into the outrage). I always remind myself that MANY voters are NOT independent thinkers... or frankly, even that bright (sorry if that sounds rude). So, they will be swayed by this 24x7 brainwashing campaign. The true Trumpers will stick by him and the party...because they're turned into Fox News or Rush Limbaugh (brainwashing from the other direction) but I think all the other voters in this mid-terms are a total crap shoot. Even if just the House loses in a YUGE way, that will put wind in the sails of the Democratic party for the next Presidential election... and I'm just not convinced the Senate is so "safe" either.

 

 

You do realize there are 35 seats up for election 26 Held by Dems and 9 held by GOP.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, capt14k said:

You do realize there are 35 seats up for election 26 Held by Dems and 9 held by GOP.

 

Yes, I do. But, I also don't know what senators might die, retire or be forced to resign (due to dug up dirt?) in the coming weeks. Shit happens! We're living in weird political times and thus my cynicism is at an all-time high. I take nothing for granted! :)

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Yes, I do. But, I also don't know what senators might die, retire or be forced to resign (due to dug up dirt?) in the coming weeks. Shit happens! We're living in weird political times and thus my cynicism is at an all-time high. I take nothing for granted! [emoji4]

 7 GOP are solid Red. Say we lose Heller's Seat and Flake's. Then the Dems would have a 1 Seat lead however we are currently ahead in WV, FL, MO, IN, and ND. That would give us 54-46. Flake isn't running so AZ is a win thus 55-45. I fixed my earlier post where I accidentally wrote Flake instead of Heller. We also have a chance at PA, MT, OH, MN, and MI. The Dems have a shot at only the 2 seats mentioned.

 

 

 

Anyone who would like to wager on it I will take their action. Even money GOP maintains control over the Senate.

 

 

 

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I am not a betting man particularly when it comes to politics. Wasn't it a sure thing that Hillary would be the next President? I saw all of the polls. We would never get to 3% GDP growth (forget about 4%) even for a single quarter. Rocket man would never shake hands with Trump. But stuff happens.

On the other hand I hope (I know hope is not a strategy) the Republicans get a veto proof Senate majority, RBG retires, and SCOTUS tells NJ ALL of our laws are unconstitutional. In my dreams :)

Anything is possible in politics which makes these discussions so much fun.

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I am not a betting man particularly when it comes to politics. Wasn't it a sure thing that Hillary would be the next President? I saw all of the polls. We would never get to 3% GDP growth (forget about 4%) even for a single quarter. Rocket man would never shake hands with Trump. But stuff happens.
On the other hand I hope (I know hope is not a strategy) the Republicans get a veto proof Senate majority, RBG retires, and SCOTUS tells NJ ALL of our laws are unconstitutional. In my dreams [emoji4]
Anything is possible in politics which makes these discussions so much fun.
I gave odds on Presidential election too. Newtonian took Hillary and he is a man of his word.

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For the prognosticators I have two words:
Roy Moore
 
By the last few days it was obvious Roy Moore was going to lose. Seat is being held temporarily. Will be back in GOP hands.

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That's exactly the point, everything looks good on paper -did anybody ever think that seat would get flipped until the accusations against Moore stated pouting in?--until the realities on the ground hits you in the face.

In politics, three months are several lifetimes.

I'm cautiously optimistic on the senate.

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33 minutes ago, WP22 said:

That's exactly the point, everything looks good on paper -did anybody ever think that seat would get flipped until the accusations against Moore stated pouting in?--until the realities on the ground hits you in the face.

In politics, three months are several lifetimes.

I'm cautiously optimistic on the senate.

i'm staying cautiously optimistic on keeping house and senate. it seems unlikely that they can flip enough seats to take the house.......

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The Dems will be trying to stall Kavanaugh's confirmation until after the mid-terms in the hopes of an unlikely upset that puts Dems back in control of Congress. I read Feinstein is heading up a Hail Mary pass to request ALL of the documents Kavanaugh has ever authored, like when he was working for Bush (but was not a judge at the time). Some experts seems to think it's just a fishing expedition that won't work.

Meantime, Rand Paul - up until now a holdout - just came out in favor of Kavanaugh's confirmation after meeting with him. Here's an article which shows his tweets (and rationale) on the matter:

https://www.redstate.com/streiff/2018/07/30/blocking-brett-kavanaugh-just-got-lot-harder/

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Hoping (there is that word again) that he is seated before the start of the session and we will finally see if Kennedy was the holdout for cert for a 2A case or the worse case it was the chief and we have to wait for rbg to retire.

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