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Zeke

Electric cars as the norm vs the exception

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When do you feel or expect to see the majority of vehicles on the road electric only? 20 years? 50 years?

Im seeing more and more, and my subs are putting in more and more charging stations.

Your thoughts 

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I don't see them being mandated. political suicide for whoever signs off on it.

 

 that said......i'd say 20-30 years max. they're making big pushes to convince us that we like them. and to be honest....given enough current flow, there's not an internal combustion engine on the road that can match the performance of an electric motor. but you've got battery issues and re-charge issues.

 what needs to happen with electrics is that the govt subsidies need to stop. then we'll see if the electric car companies can stand on their own.

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I think the technology of electric vehicles needs to get better before there is widespread acceptance. 

Currently, Tesla’s have about a 250 mile range, and it takes hours to charge them so you can go another 250 miles. 

For many people (myself included), that’s not going to cut it. The calability for rapid recharge (think like pumping gas) in 10 mins, and extended range is needed before EV’s will ever become mainstream in the US.

 

People think EV’s are ‘green’...nothing is further from the truth. The power to recharge them comes from fossil fuel (or nuke) power plants, mining the minerals needed for the batteries is a very dirty process, not to mention manufacturing the batteries themselves. Think also about vehicle accidents...a leaking battery is a nasty environmental problem too..

We aren’t there yet with EV’s. 

Personally, I think hydrogen fuel cells are the way to go. 

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26 minutes ago, 1LtCAP said:

what needs to happen with electrics is that the govt subsidies need to stop. then we'll see if the electric car companies can stand on their own.

Tesla wouldn’t survive without subsidies. Hell, even WITH subsidies, they continue to lose millions upon millions EVERY year. 

They have never even broken even!

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20 minutes ago, 1LtCAP said:

I don't see them being mandated. political suicide for whoever signs off on it.

 

 that said......i'd say 20-30 years max. they're making big pushes to convince us that we like them. and to be honest....given enough current flow, there's not an internal combustion engine on the road that can match the performance of an electric motor. but you've got battery issues and re-charge issues.

 what needs to happen with electrics is that the govt subsidies need to stop. then we'll see if the electric car companies can stand on their own.

I think we are still in the infancy stage. But ford is coming out with a 150 all electric.

Im actually very surprised the subsidies have not been cut yet.

As far as mandatory... if there are no gas stations, where you gonna get the gas dude.

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36 minutes ago, Zeke said:

What if they are mandated?

Never happen.

EVs will always be a novelty or status symbol, or maybe, if you have burnable cash laying around, a toy to drive on Sundays.

22 minutes ago, Displaced Texan said:

Currently, Tesla’s have about a 250 mile range, and it takes hours to charge them so you can go another 250 miles. 

For many people (myself included), that’s not going to cut it. The calability for rapid recharge (think like pumping gas) in 10 mins, and extended range is needed before EV’s will ever become mainstream in the US.

And this is why. They could never be mainstream for business people, tradesmen or anyone else who drives a lot or has a long commute.

24 minutes ago, Displaced Texan said:

People think EV’s are ‘green’...nothing is further from the truth. The power to recharge them comes from fossil fuel (or nuke) power plants, mining the minerals needed for the batteries is a very dirty process, not to mention manufacturing the batteries themselves.

Another BIG point that the "Greenies" don't even think about. The amount of pollution and waste from battery production or solar power production is HUGE. When these facts come out, the "sheep" will wake up.

Plus, the infrastructure needed to charge large amounts of EVs at once needs to be built, and the power needed to "fuel" them is a issue.

14 minutes ago, Displaced Texan said:

Tesla wouldn’t survive without subsidies. Hell, even WITH subsidies, they continue to lose millions upon millions EVERY year. 

Nothing Musk doesn't can survive without government subsidies.

 

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I had a ford fusion energi, which is part gas, part hybrid, part plug in.  It was great on gas, 40mpg without plug in, 42-43 with plug in.  That is until i got a new set of tires which had more grip and the car went to 33 and 34-35 which is still decent, but if the tires are responsible for several mpg's how great is the car.  And I had to lose my trunk.  With all of the battery packs, i could barely fit a set of golf clubs and 2 pairs of shoes in the trunk.   Dont miss that car much.  

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8 minutes ago, Zeke said:

Im actually very surprised the subsidies have not been cut yet.

They have:

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a23743195/tesla-tax-credit-deadline-date/

...." Tesla has reached the beginning of the end of the $7500 federal tax credit for buyers of the automaker's electric vehicles. The rules of the credit spell out that only the buyers of the first 200,000 electric vehicles sold by each manufacturer are eligible for the full amount; after that point, the credit begins to decrease over time. Although Tesla already hit the 200,000 mark earlier this year, the $7500 tax credit will apply to vehicles delivered before the end of 2018. "

 

1 minute ago, JasonSeidman said:

And I had to lose my trunk.  With all of the battery packs, i could barely fit a set of golf clubs and 2 pairs of shoes in the trunk. 

Who cares about golf clubs? More important, how many rifles, handguns and ammo would it hold? That's a priority!!

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4 minutes ago, Zeke said:

@Displaced Texan 10 years ago did you think you’d see the likes of Tesla? Count how many you see now on your various commutes.

@Zeke

I do see quite a few around urban areas, but very few on longer highway commutes. Range, and time to charge are the limiting factors at this point. I think they are pretty good for local area driving, but not practical for long distance trips, or business travelers who drive to customer sites. Just this morning, I drove 250 miles to a customer site, and that’s not unusual for me. Teslas current technology gives a 250-ish mike range, and it takes 4-6 hours to fully recharge for another 250 miles. I do see quite a bit more infrastructure for charging around, but think about driving 250 miles, then having to park and charge for 6 hours before you can drive another 250? Not practical. 

 

Im not AGAINST EV’s, but I just don’t think the tech is there yet to make them overtake the market. It will be MANY years, if ever, before the tech gets to the point of replacing IC engines. 

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Also, a big issue for electric cars and batteries. They are a warm weather vehicle, which can be a BIG issue with the top half of the country.

Cold weather can cut electric car range over 40 percent

DETROIT (AP) — Cold temperatures can sap electric car batteries, temporarily reducing their range by more than 40 percent when interior heaters are used, a new study found.

Many owners discovered the range limitations last week when much of the country was in the grips of a polar vortex. Owners of vehicles made by manufacturers including Tesla, the top-selling electric vehicle company in the U.S., complained on social media about reduced range and frozen door handles during the cold snap.

At 20 degrees, the average driving range fell by 12 percent when the car’s cabin heater was not used. When the heater was turned on, the range dropped by 41 percent, AAA said.

For example, AAA’s testers determined that the Tesla’s range when fully charged at 75 degrees was 239 miles, but it fell 91 miles, or 38 percent, at 20 degrees.

https://www.apnews.com/04029bd1e0a94cd59ff9540a398c12d1

 

 

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i see a couple teslas around my shop...but then there's a tesla dealer right on rt70. i've seen 2 or 3 of the little shitbox beemer electrics, and last summer i saw 1 beemer hotrod electric. once.

 

 i get it with the feeling ya get when ya fire up that big block. i got the giggles every single time i climbed in and strapped into the shop camaro years ago. i got it every time i fired up my 12 second 89 gt years ago. but the fact is give that electric motor good current flow, and it'll pummel us in a drag race. won't sound as cool, but it'll be out front. sadly.

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20 minutes ago, Displaced Texan said:

@Zeke

I do see quite a few around urban areas, but very few on longer highway commutes. Range, and time to charge are the limiting factors at this point. I think they are pretty good for local area driving, but not practical for long distance trips, or business travelers who drive to customer sites. Just this morning, I drove 250 miles to a customer site, and that’s not unusual for me. Teslas current technology gives a 250-ish mike range, and it takes 4-6 hours to fully recharge for another 250 miles. I do see quite a bit more infrastructure for charging around, but think about driving 250 miles, then having to park and charge for 6 hours before you can drive another 250? Not practical. 

 

Im not AGAINST EV’s, but I just don’t think the tech is there yet to make them overtake the market. It will be MANY years, if ever, before the tech gets to the point of replacing IC engines. 

The question is when. In the 80’s I had i commodore 65 in the 90’s I had a TI 85 with mo power. Muah!

its happening. I give it 20 years 

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1 hour ago, Zeke said:

When do you feel or expect to see the majority of vehicles on the road electric only? 20 years? 50 years?

Im seeing more and more, and my subs are putting in more and more charging stations.

Your thoughts 

Majority? ..... 50years assuming Fuel Cell vehicles are not perfected .....

I will never have an electric or hybrid in my household....  never..... 

When push comes to shove they will just make even more efficient combustion engine vehicles. 

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Just now, Zeke said:

The question is when. In the 80’s I had i commodore 65 in the 90’s I had a TI 85 with mo power. Muah!

its happening. I give it 20 years 

It very well may, but there are a LOT of hurdles to overcome before it happens. 

Still, the environmental issues will be there. EV’s aren’t green, despite of what the Greenies tell you. 

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Just now, 67gtonut said:

Majority? ..... 50years assuming Fuel Cell vehicles are not perfected .....

I will never have an electric or hybrid in my household....  never..... 

When push comes to shove they will just make even more efficient combustion engine vehicles. 

Fuel cells tek has been dropped like a rock over the Grand Canyon.

Just now, Displaced Texan said:

It very well may, but there are a LOT of hurdles to overcome before it happens. 

Still, the environmental issues will be there. EV’s aren’t green, despite of what the Greenies tell you. 

Don’t disagree, dirty laundry in the production 

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Proiducing lithium batteries isn't nearly as nasty as producing nickel cadmium batteries. Regardless, the ability to manage solid and liquid waste products is easier than dealing with gasses. I'm pretty sure a number of people that are pro-ev are aware they are shifting the pollution, they are accepting that they are shifting it to a less perilous or more easily managed form of pollution.  

EV powered off of coal is about as nasty as it gets. EV powered off of solar is a net win in the end. Or at least you get to export the misery to some shithole you don't have to visit. 

I think we will see extremely broad adoption of plug in hybrids in the next 20 years. Not just market offering, but buyer adoption rates. 

Straight up EVs still have a lot of logistical issues to sort out as people pointed out. One of the biggest is that even for short trips they are too expensive, and in an increasingly renting population, landlords don't give a shit about putting in charging stations in volumes that don't make your life suck. 

If we had more of a practical motorcycling culture the electric bikes that are beefier than a moped and probably on par with the utilitarian 250cc bikes in other countries, you could carry the small pack in with you and charge at your desk or in your apartment.  They are practically priced commuting machines at $5k or less, and would let you leave the car to be for fun if you bothered at all. 

 

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19 minutes ago, Zeke said:

The question is when. In the 80’s I had i commodore 65 in the 90’s I had a TI 85 with mo power. Muah!

its happening. I give it 20 years 

Apples to oranges. Computers, for the most part, are a "need" today, and that's why they've developed and improved, where EVs are a "want". Unless there's a technological way to "refill" a battery pack in 10 minutes, EV's will never make it to mainstream.

How much Tesla stock do you own?

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just remember this line, 'all politics are local'

 

it applies to most things so think about this and refocus the logic.  A little exercise I'd do with my grad students when they do exercises like this.

on point however, electric cars may be more prevalent in wealthy areas like ct, nj, ny and cali but their sales have lagged much of the country despite the massive tax and gov't aid .  50yrs may be too soon....

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2 hours ago, Zeke said:

When do you feel or expect to see the majority of vehicles on the road electric only? 20 years? 50 years?

I see a majority of cars being electric in 20 years, but then the rate of adoption will tail off, as everyone for whom electric is a good fit will have one, and the technology won’t have advanced to the point where electric can fully replace internal combustion for everyone else.   It’s likely to be a very long time before battery technology will approach the energy density of gas or diesel, and for a lot of applications, that matters. 

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1 minute ago, 10X said:

I see a majority of cars being electric in 20 years, but then the rate of adoption will tail off, as everyone for whom electric is a good fit will have one, and the technology won’t have advanced to the point where electric can fully replace internal combustion for everyone else.   It’s likely to be a very long time before battery technology will approach the energy density of gas or diesel, and for a lot of applications, that matters. 

how do you see them taking off without massive tax and gov't subsidies in a time when budgets are constantly challenged.  You think Exxon and the like are investing in this when oil is plentiful, cheap, delivery and use systems are well established?  Not to mention the jobs etc.

Not only that, but until battery technology gives us a car that can go 65mph for 500 miles, many are not buying

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