Jump to content
Zeke

Electric cars as the norm vs the exception

Recommended Posts

2 minutes ago, Darrenf said:

Once you feel the instant torque of a serious electric car, if you aren't hooked, then you aren't a car guy. I know you get it Zeke, but I'll say it again for some others here.  Like I said, there is a reason Porsche and Audi lost so many sales the last few years. Electric cars can be an absolute thrill to drive.  All the legacy manufacturers made them ugly and anemic for a reason, to sway the buying public away from them, and some here have bought it. That is the opening Tesla saw and they took it and ran with it. One drive is all it takes to open your eyes, but of course, you have to be willing to open your eyes.

Once I get my Tesla type.... I’m gonna race @1LtCAP anytime anywhere always. Even grocery shopping! With a cart or basket, or 10 items or less.

2nd place is first looser dude! By a second or a mile.

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Darrenf said:

Once you feel the instant torque of a serious electric car, if you aren't hooked, then you aren't a car guy. I know you get it Zeke, but I'll say it again for some others here.  Like I said, there is a reason Porsche and Audi lost so many sales the last few years. Electric cars can be an absolute thrill to drive.  All the legacy manufacturers made them ugly and anemic for a reason, to sway the buying public away from them, and some here have bought it. That is the opening Tesla saw and they took it and ran with it. One drive is all it takes to open your eyes, but of course, you have to be willing to open your eyes.

Grumpy old men have trouble opening things. Eyes, Ears, Minds..

  • Like 1
  • Agree 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, carl_g said:

@Zeke electric KTM that can go for 3 hrs on a charge and cheap replaceable batteries... the possibilities are endless. This is from a 2-smoker guy. someday....

 

WER, no woods enduro? Crap!

the guy that has been a Zero dealership for couple years. Not Smith

2 minutes ago, carl_g said:

Grumpy old men have trouble opening things. Eyes, Ears, Minds..

Things are changing around them

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, carl_g said:

@Zeke electric KTM that can go for 3 hrs on a charge and cheap replaceable batteries... the possibilities are endless. This is from a 2-smoker guy. someday....

 

Maybe for the woods.  But not for motocross.  It may be possible to manage the acceleration but no MX guys want their wheels spinning all over the place. Even fuel injection had to be tweaked with different mappings for conditions.

Plus for woods riding in cold weather, those 3 hour batteries are going to be 90 minute batteries.  Most times I’ve gone woods riding I put in a lot more time than 3 hrs.

One day maybe... but I think we are a long way off.  Plus....I can’t imagine how boring it would be to what an MX race that sounded like a slot car race.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, Kevin125 said:

Maybe for the woods.  But not for motocross.  It may be possible to manage the acceleration but no MX guys want their wheels spinning all over the place. Even fuel injection had to be tweaked with different mappings for conditions.

Plus for woods riding in cold weather, those 3 hour batteries are going to be 90 minute batteries.  Most times I’ve gone woods riding I put in a lot more time than 3 hrs.

One day maybe... but I think we are a long way off.  Plus....I can’t imagine how boring it would be to what an MX race that sounded like a slot car race.

Yeah.. The electric bike would be ideal for woods riding if they can perfect it. It would open up so much riding terrain due to the lack of noise.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, carl_g said:

Yeah.. The electric bike would be ideal for woods riding if they can perfect it. It would open up so much riding terrain due to the lack of noise.

Dammit! I was gonna tell @Kevin125 the biggest park and track killer is noise.

Besides the Lapper’s can make vroom vroom noises to the crowd every circle.

Needs easy battery swaps at pits( harescrambles ) or gas or resets( Enduro’s) or like 5 minutes of riding ( mx:D)

  • Agree 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Zeke said:

Dammit! I was gonna tell @Kevin125 the biggest park and track killer is noise.

Besides the Lapper’s can make vroom vroom noises to the crowd every circle.

Needs easy battery swaps at pits( harescrambles ) or gas or resets( Enduro’s) or like 5 minutes of riding ( mx:D)

Scary we think alike sometimes :ninja:

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
40 minutes ago, carl_g said:

Scary we think alike sometimes :ninja:

Psa if you think like me, call Houston. You have a problem.

i was pretty vested with Njohva( dale) 

the town council meetings were” noise, spilling gas, changing oil in parking lots “

Man could you imagine how many ranges we could have if silencers were not an issue? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 2/16/2019 at 8:26 AM, carl_g said:

Yeah.. The electric bike would be ideal for woods riding if they can perfect it. It would open up so much riding terrain due to the lack of noise.

I thought one of the tree huggers biggest issues with woods riding is the damage done to the ground and resulting erosion that supposedly follows?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 2/16/2019 at 1:55 PM, Zeke said:

Dammit! I was gonna tell @Kevin125 the biggest park and track killer is noise.

Besides the Lapper’s can make vroom vroom noises to the crowd every circle.

Needs easy battery swaps at pits( harescrambles ) or gas or resets( Enduro’s) or like 5 minutes of riding ( mx:D)

We don’t ride in circles. 

Hey, is it true that some woods rider had his mom along with him on his bike for one of those bunny scrambles?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Kevin125 said:

I thought one of the tree huggers biggest issues with woods riding is the damage done to the ground and resulting erosion that supposedly follows?

If they can’t hear ya...they won’t catch ya. ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 2/14/2019 at 5:13 PM, Darrenf said:

They provide the most technology for the dollar, and somehow that's a negative. :facepalm:

One it's seriously twisting semantics to say that I said the tesla has the most technology for the dollar. It might, it might not. What it does have is a car that has a minor parking lot bump that costs near 10k. And wile that may not be too absurd in the world of $100k sedans, in the world of $40k sedans it is, and a lot of the things that bump up the cost in the model S are present in the model 3. 

Beyond that, for the 20 year scenario, we already covered that we have lithium availability issues. So what if it goes up 10x in price. You still have to buy that stuff and put it in cars for a transition to succeed, an there's an obstacle to be overcome there. 

Add to that the fact the average age of a car on the road today is 12.1 years old. That number has been going up ever since cash for clunkers shut down. Even if you got all new car sales moved over to electric in 10 years, you still wouldn't hit the 20 year mark for complete conversion to electric. You'd need to do a new cash for clunkers style buy that was even bigger than last time and effectively subsidized lower income buyers to get into the EV market, even if used. 

On top of that, you have to problem that the current EV market is unlikely to be a good source of cheaper used EVs. Almost every vehicle is a product of a fairly vertically integrated design at the moment. Which is incredibly rough on spare parts supplies. An example of this is tesla moving from NVIDIA computing to an in house solution. How long do you think you will be able to buy raplacement computing for a tesla. 

Once again this isn't tesla specific. It's a problem exacerbated by increasing tech in cars that falls much more into the proprietary IP encumbered world of computing. But the transition will be negatively impacted by this issue as it will result in more overpriced, but disposable vehicles. 

IMO, I think the right thing for maximum impact would be well designed pulg-in hybrids. They are accessibly usable for all situations and renters and home owners alike. If designed well for the majority of repetitive commuting miles it is zero emission vehicle. by being plug in hybrids, it provides a nice transition target for recharging stations being built out.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, raz-0 said:

One it's seriously twisting semantics to say that I said the tesla has the most technology for the dollar. It might, it might not. What it does have is a car that has a minor parking lot bump that costs near 10k. And wile that may not be too absurd in the world of $100k sedans, in the world of $40k sedans it is, and a lot of the things that bump up the cost in the model S are present in the model 3. 

Beyond that, for the 20 year scenario, we already covered that we have lithium availability issues. So what if it goes up 10x in price. You still have to buy that stuff and put it in cars for a transition to succeed, an there's an obstacle to be overcome there. 

Add to that the fact the average age of a car on the road today is 12.1 years old. That number has been going up ever since cash for clunkers shut down. Even if you got all new car sales moved over to electric in 10 years, you still wouldn't hit the 20 year mark for complete conversion to electric. You'd need to do a new cash for clunkers style buy that was even bigger than last time and effectively subsidized lower income buyers to get into the EV market, even if used. 

On top of that, you have to problem that the current EV market is unlikely to be a good source of cheaper used EVs. Almost every vehicle is a product of a fairly vertically integrated design at the moment. Which is incredibly rough on spare parts supplies. An example of this is tesla moving from NVIDIA computing to an in house solution. How long do you think you will be able to buy raplacement computing for a tesla. 

Once again this isn't tesla specific. It's a problem exacerbated by increasing tech in cars that falls much more into the proprietary IP encumbered world of computing. But the transition will be negatively impacted by this issue as it will result in more overpriced, but disposable vehicles. 

IMO, I think the right thing for maximum impact would be well designed pulg-in hybrids. They are accessibly usable for all situations and renters and home owners alike. If designed well for the majority of repetitive commuting miles it is zero emission vehicle. by being plug in hybrids, it provides a nice transition target for recharging stations being built out.

 

I have no idea what you are referring to by "minor parking lot bump".  

As far as lithium reserves there has been a lot of nonsense posted here, so your point that "we already covered it" means little. Here is some info..

https://www.quora.com/Is-there-enough-lithium-in-the-world-to-replace-all-petroleum-cars-with-battery-electric-vehicles

And guess what, batteries are recyclable.  Everything in them can be reclaimed and reused.  It's not like the lithium or any other element in the batteies is being consumed, it is just being moved throughout the battery over it's lifetime, which decreases the batteries capacity over time.  And current estimates for Tesla Model 3 batteries lifespan is 25 years.  How many cars have you kept for 25 years without replacing the drivetrain?  https://teslanomics.co/tesla-batteries-last-forever-basically/

As far as parts, are you asking how long into the future will you be able to buy parts for the car you purchase now?  No one can really answer that, but the original Tesla, the original 2008 roadster is not only still supported, but they have developed upgraded batteries that can be installed.  It wouldn't be surprising to see Tesla have battery upgrades for their other vehicles in the future.  They already add features to he vehicles after you purchased it, through over the air software updates, and have even had owners come back 2 years later for a quick hardware change (free by the way) to decrease the 0 - 60 time by a full second.  https://insideevs.com/older-75d-tesla-model-s-and-x-vehicles-get-0-60-mph-bump-for-free/

And I never made the argument that pure electric is right for everyone, at least right now it's not, and Plug in hybrids are a good compromise for some missions, but the spot they fill is becoming increasingly small as EV's increase range, decrease charge times and they already blow the driving experience of plug in hybrids away.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 hours ago, raz-0 said:

One it's seriously twisting semantics to say that I said the tesla has the most technology for the dollar. It might, it might not. What it does have is a car that has a minor parking lot bump that costs near 10k. And wile that may not be too absurd in the world of $100k sedans, in the world of $40k sedans it is, and a lot of the things that bump up the cost in the model S are present in the model 3. 

Beyond that, for the 20 year scenario, we already covered that we have lithium availability issues. So what if it goes up 10x in price. You still have to buy that stuff and put it in cars for a transition to succeed, an there's an obstacle to be overcome there. 

Add to that the fact the average age of a car on the road today is 12.1 years old. That number has been going up ever since cash for clunkers shut down. Even if you got all new car sales moved over to electric in 10 years, you still wouldn't hit the 20 year mark for complete conversion to electric. You'd need to do a new cash for clunkers style buy that was even bigger than last time and effectively subsidized lower income buyers to get into the EV market, even if used. 

On top of that, you have to problem that the current EV market is unlikely to be a good source of cheaper used EVs. Almost every vehicle is a product of a fairly vertically integrated design at the moment. Which is incredibly rough on spare parts supplies. An example of this is tesla moving from NVIDIA computing to an in house solution. How long do you think you will be able to buy raplacement computing for a tesla. 

Once again this isn't tesla specific. It's a problem exacerbated by increasing tech in cars that falls much more into the proprietary IP encumbered world of computing. But the transition will be negatively impacted by this issue as it will result in more overpriced, but disposable vehicles. 

IMO, I think the right thing for maximum impact would be well designed pulg-in hybrids. They are accessibly usable for all situations and renters and home owners alike. If designed well for the majority of repetitive commuting miles it is zero emission vehicle. by being plug in hybrids, it provides a nice transition target for recharging stations being built out.

 

While the parts and expense part are spot on, the rest is either nonsense or pure conjecture.  Who knows what batteries will be around or cost in 20 years - way beyond our ability to guess.  Much more likely they will cost less, not more, as volume goes up and new technology arrives.  I know that Prius batteries used to be a small fortune, now they are cheap and they rebuild bad ones.  That said, hybrids are actually the worst of both worlds, and I am not a hybrid hater having owned three of them.  You have both the problems of ICE and the problems of electric.  Couple that with crazy electronics and software to make the two work together and you have a recipe for huge repair bills down the road.  As for your analysis that says old cars will stay on the road that seems unlikely once electric gets to some reasonably high percentage.  The problem is gasoline will become very expensive as more and more refineries shut down due to lack of demand.  That does not even factor in that there could be increased taxes to drive people away from gasoline.  Bottom line though is who really knows.  We will have to wait and see.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Some food for thought from today's WSJ:

 

Investors Get Burned After Betting on Electric-Car Metals

Markets like stocks and oil have rebounded this year, but cobalt and lithium continue to fall

 
 
Brine pools from a lithium mine in Chile. As investors piled into metals used in smartphones and electric cars, including lithium and cobalt, miners boosted production—contributing to a drop in prices
Brine pools from a lithium mine in Chile. As investors piled into metals used in smartphones and electric cars, including lithium and cobalt, miners boosted production—contributing to a drop in prices PHOTO: IVAN ALVARADO/REUTERS
By 
Amrith Ramkumar
Feb. 17, 2019 7:00 a.m. ET
 

Investors who piled into electric-car metals can’t seem to catch a break.

Markets from stocks to crude oil have staged a comeback in 2019 after a tumultuous stretch at the end of last year. But cobalt and lithium—metals that are key to making the rechargeable batteries used in electric vehicles and smartphones—are missing out on the rebound across risky assets.

 

Cobalt prices have fallen more than 30% in 2019 to their lowest level in two years, according to figures from commodity-price provider Fastmarkets through Feb. 6. Meanwhile, a lithium price index published by Benchmark Mineral Intelligence dropped for the 10th consecutive month in January to a multiyear low.

The descent in both markets is a reversal from 2017, when investors sent prices soaring as they anticipated a wave of demand would lead to supply shortages. The slump is the latest sign that once-hot trades can quickly change as major players in a sector shift their behavior in ways investors can’t predict.

BludgeonedShares of several smaller cobalt and lithium companies have tumbled in recent months.Source: SIX
%First CobaltLithium AmericasCobalt 27Nemaska LithiumJan. ’18MarchMayJulySept.Nov.Jan. ’19-100-90-80-70-60-50-40-30-20-100102030First Cobalt xFeb 4, 2019x-85.9%

Miners rushed to take advantage of the excitement in battery metals, leading to steady production of the commodities, which caused prices to tumble in 2018. Slowing growth in China and uncertainty about the country’s subsidy policies for electric vehicles further hurt sentiment. China is the dominant player in the supply chain for electric-car batteries.

Battery-metals prices have fallen even as global sales of electric vehicles jumped 64% in 2018 from a year earlier, albeit from a low base, according to data tracker EV-Volumes. Both the U.S. and China logged nearly 80% increases in sales growth, although electric vehicles accounted for just 2% and 4% of their markets, respectively. Anxiety about the future rates of adoption and unknowns surrounding battery technology continue to loom over the sector.

 
 
investors-get-burned-after-betting-on-electric-car-metals-11550404801?mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=2
 
 
The Secret to Why a Tesla Costs So Much (Hint: Batteries)
The Secret to Why a Tesla Costs So Much (Hint: Batteries)
 
One of the biggest things preventing Elon Musk from releasing a mass market electric vehicle comes down to the vehicle's blessing and curse: its lithium-ion battery. We break down the science and the cost.

“Investors want certainty,” said Chris Berry, founder of House Mountain Partners LLC, a New York-based adviser to battery-metals companies and investors. “It’s just going to take some time for that to come about.”

The tumble in cobalt prices in particular caught investors on the wrong foot. With lithium, some investors expected oversupply to cool the metal’s rally because it is relatively abundant in South America and Australia.

But market watchers had projected supply challenges in the Democratic Republic of Congo to support cobalt prices. The country accounts for about 70% of global supply, and geopolitical uncertainty there was a factor some bet would lead to a supply shortfall.

 
Losing PowerPrices of cobalt continue to tumble amid asteady supply of the metal, used inrechargeable batteries.Source: Fastmarkets
.a pound2017’18’190510152025303540$45
Lithium LullLithium prices have fallen lately as morecompanies attempt to increase output.Benchmark Lithium IndexSource: Benchmark Mineral Intelligence
Jan. ’17JulyJan. ’18JulyJan. ’19200220240260280300320340360

Instead, cobalt output from companies such asGlencore PLC and China Molybdenum Co. was robust. Meanwhile, production from small miners also ramped up, with some of their workers using their bare hands to extract the metal without proper safety equipment, according to previous reporting by The Wall Street Journal. Citigroup projects refined cobalt production will exceed demand this year and annually through 2022.

“There’s just so much extra supply coming from all the project expansions in the DRC,” said George Heppel, an analyst at commodity research firm CRU. “It’s been a bit of a roller coaster the last few months.”

In ExcessAnalysts estimate refined cobalt production will top demand each year through 2022.Source: CitigroupNote: All figures after 2017 are estimates
.thousand metric tonsSupplyDemand2017’18’19’20’21’22’23020406080100120140160180

Shares of several small publicly traded cobalt- and lithium-exploration companies and producers are down 50% or more in the past year. First Cobalt Corp. has tumbled 83%, whileLithium Americas Corp. has dropped 57%.

The challenges facing less established players were illustrated last week when Nemaska Lithium Inc., a small Quebec-based producer that secured a nearly $80 million investment from SoftBank Group Corp. last year, said it needs an extra $283 million to finish its mine and meet the conditions of agreements with a private-equity firm and its lenders. Those agreements were used to generate funds for the roughly $830 million project.

In a sign of how quickly money rushed into the sector, Nemaska Chief Executive Guy Bourassasaid in an interview with the Journal last year that he had never heard of SoftBank before the Japanese conglomerate invested in Nemaska. Since the company announced SoftBank’s investment, Nemaska shares have fallen more than 75% to about 25 cents each. Nemaska couldn’t be reached for comment.

DwarfedLithium total supply is projected to exceed demand in the next several years.Source: CitigroupNote: All figures after 2017 are estimates
.thousand metric tons2017’18’19’20’21’22’2301002003004005006007008009002023x572.136 thousand metric tons

Write to Amrith Ramkumar at [email protected]

Appeared in the February 19, 2019, print edition as 'Electric-Car Metals Let Down Investors Investors Burned on Electric-Car Metals.'

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Howard said:

While the parts and expense part are spot on, the rest is either nonsense or pure conjecture.  Who knows what batteries will be around or cost in 20 years - way beyond our ability to guess.  Much more likely they will cost less, not more, as volume goes up and new technology arrives.  I know that Prius batteries used to be a small fortune, now they are cheap and they rebuild bad ones.  That said, hybrids are actually the worst of both worlds, and I am not a hybrid hater having owned three of them.  You have both the problems of ICE and the problems of electric.  Couple that with crazy electronics and software to make the two work together and you have a recipe for huge repair bills down the road.  As for your analysis that says old cars will stay on the road that seems unlikely once electric gets to some reasonably high percentage.  The problem is gasoline will become very expensive as more and more refineries shut down due to lack of demand.  That does not even factor in that there could be increased taxes to drive people away from gasoline.  Bottom line though is who really knows.  We will have to wait and see.

Who knows what batteries will be around in 20 years? People who work on batteries. Battery technology moves SLOWLY.  The economics of raw materials are going to be even less fixable. 

So first up, CObalt. 60% is in the African Congo. And we are fucked right there. The Chinese will own most of this, and the lefties will protest our using of it to death. Because that is largely already off limits, we already run into issues with accidentally procuring batteries with Cuban sourced cobalt. We got huge political problems with cobalt. 

Then there's lithium. Its everywhere, but you are looking at the lithium triangle for the vast bulk of it now and the near future. This is the easy lithium to get. The stuff is all over the place, but you are looking at a change in economic model of recovery once we need to stray out of this area, with likely a radical increase in cost. 

So on to the tech.

First lithium battery - 1976. First "modern" design with lithium-cobalt oxide cathode cathode - 1980. commercial introduction of said technology - 1991.  Currently we make minor improvements to the cathode design, membranes, and construction methods. Typically, in this mature area of research, they run about 3 years conception to POC, then about 5 years form POC to commercial availability if they are viable. 

Contemporary to the devlopment of the lithium battery were a number of alternative chemistries that were essentially dead ends. 

Could we get a genius who plucks something unprecedented out of thin air? Maybe, but odds are against it. 

So what's out there to participate in the current race? 

1) Solid state lithium chemistry batteries - this gains us packaging options and about 2.5x the energy density of current lithium designs as well as faster recharge times. This mostly comes from an innate higher tolerance to heat and removal of flamable materials witht he move away form a liquid electrolyte. We even know how to make them. The problem is the method of making them does not at this time benefit from economies of scale and they are ruinously expensive. A roughly car-battery equivalent currently would cost about $100,000. An EV size battery would cost in the area of $80,000,000. So the big breakthrough is not what, but how. Panasonic, volkswagen audi group, toyota, nissan, BMW, hyundai, and dyson are all investing serious money into this technology and cracking that manufacturing problem. 

2) Lithium air batteries. This is potentially one of the candidates for a solid state lithium battery based on "recent" breakthroughs. It's currently roughly at the state of the 1980 stage of lithium ion cells if their fix to some of the key hurldes are actually manufacturable fixes. Bonus is it looks like it gets rid of the need for cobalt in a lithium chemistry battery, and cobalt is the dirtiest and most expensive element in the current chemistry. 

3) Aluminum air batteries. Just add water and you can have 1000 mile range!!! But you cant recharge it really. AS there is permanent degradation of the anode and cathode. This IMO is likely to fail based on the shortcomings of the technology. Not necessarily because it is non viable, just that it isn't special compared to the alternatives and likely to be book ended by a more achievable easier alternative, and a more advantaged complex alternative. 

4) magnesium ion batteries - These are likely not going to happen. because they can't get a good liquid electrolyte going and a number of researchers have already abandoned it while it is in a state compared to lithium ion that is pre-1976. Those researches have  moved on to...

5) solid state magnesium batteries. - compared to lithium it is still pre-1976. My guess is this will be abandoned due to the timing of development, OR it will be an alternative chemistry competing with solid state lithum to give us more options in sourcing materials. 

6) liquid metal batteries - Nope not mercury, just really frikin hot.  It's being researched, but I'm giving it low marks of going anywhere as it is based on the failed predecessor to lithium ion technology circa 1968. They have figured out how to make it less fragile, but it still needs a 300C operating temp. If it has any future, it's in power grid storage, not cars. That haven't fixed anything that made it an EV dead end in 1970, so... Also for power grid it will probably be killed by...

7) Flow batteries. If you read about this, it isn't for cars. It's for grid storage.  It's more mature than #6 and scales well. If it is killed it won't be by liquid metal batteries, but something like pumped desalination brine that uses gravity as the energy store or other simple solutions. 6&7 are both of interest to darpa, and they are now soliciting portable field nuclear reactors, which tells you where their confidence is on both technologies. 

8) lithium sulfer - no viable cathode yet. For the cathode designs the do have, the chemcical composition of materials leads to an 80% mechanical expansion as it is discharged. So... serious hurdles. 

9) Flouride chemistries - potentially 8x the energy density of lithium chemistries. In theory, recent developments have overcome some of the significant hurdles of this tech. Namely a viable electrolyte, and a design approach that reduces operating temps from 150C to room temperature. This is pre-1976 state compared to lithium ion technology, or at best at about the 1976 mark depending on the details of that research. And by recent, I mean the research paper hit the news circuit December 2018. 

I will add that Bloomburg finaicial research, HSBC, and BP agree with me about EV uptake and manufacturing capacity. BP has recently put out some research. 

Here's anice article on the subject: http://www.thedrive.com/news/26550/bp-expects-oil-demand-to-peak-in-2030s-evs-to-have-little-effect-report

BPs specuative financial analysis is that they expect peak oil consumption between 2030-2040. That is predicated on the notion that there will be widespread ICE bans before then, at lest for new vehicle manufacturing. Their numbers imply that they are expecting the vehicle market to either shrink, or be 90% or greater of new vehicle production by 2035. That's essentially saying my optimistic scenario of 100% new car sales in 10 years is more optimistic than theirs "worst case" (i.e. complete loss of a market). 

What they have a better grasp on I suspect is estimating fossil fuel demand psot EV switch. Mainly because they have a lot of money to spend on it and a vested interest. They say by 2040 they expect to see 320 millio EVs on the road, which will be approximately 16% of a projected 2 billion vehicles. What they don't expect is for fossil fuel demand to taper off at that point but to hold steady as other sectors continue to increase demand. 

So... Even if we switch 100% in 10 years, we are then looking at a 10-12 year ticking bomb on lithium supplies, and a petroleum market place that isn't likely to put a heck of a lot of pressure on the supply chain for used gas and diesel vehicles outside of the normal timeline on which used cars age out. 

So I'm saying that in about 10 years we will likely hit the tipping point where it is inevitable we are going 100% EV, or we will know we are scrambling for alternatives as we look at smacking into a brick wall on lithium. If we have a viable alternative, we are looking at ~2040-2045 as the optimistic case for 100% ev conversion for passenger vehicles in first world countries.  

The alternative to success or compromise is economic chaos and unrest. So we will either find a way, or we will stick with fossil fuels in some manner. My guess is that it will actually take longer to hit all those points, and plug-in series hybrids will displace straight up ICE and that manufacturer lineups will be commercially targeted diesel, with commercial and consumer EVs and hybrids making for the car line ups with the death of straight up ICE passenger vehicles in new manufacture by 2030 or so. Your approval of the engineering elegance will matter 0% as some engineering complexity will beat riots as an option.  Yes, regulatory pressures could try to force us to avoid this, but you can see how well that has worked in France with the yellow vest movement. 

 

  • Agree 1
  • Informative 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Howard said:

Interesting video on Tesla battery

I saw that video but didn't watch it. One interesting point, where do Tesla's get their batteries? Maybe from the Gigafactory?

Who owns the Gigafactory?

Oops...

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Howard said:

https://jalopnik.com/tesla-remotely-extended-the-range-of-its-florida-owners-1802955287

they only offer one battery now, and handicap it with software.

 

and good video!

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Is Elon getting desperate? Eliminating retail stores? Does he think people will order cars online, just like they order DVDs on Amazon? Who's going to fix them?

Tesla stock tanks a day after announcement on store closures, layoffs and first-quarter loss

Tesla shares fell 8 percent Friday, a day after the electric car maker said it will be shuttering some stores and cutting jobs to reduce costs.

CEO Elon Musk also said Tesla won’t turn a profit during the first quarter as it works to deliver its mid-size Model 3 sedan at a more affordable price tag of $35,000.

“Given that there is a lot happening in Q1, and we are taking a lot of one time charges, and there are a lot of challenges getting cars to China and Europe, we do not expect to be profitable in Q1,” Musk said on a call with reporters Thursday evening.

The store closures are part of a push to slash costs as much as possible to ensure the lowest-priced version of the car makes money.

“There’s no way around it,” Musk said on the call.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/01/tesla-shares-slide-after-announcing-store-closures-layoffs-and-a-loss.html

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Darrenf said:

That isn't even close to true.

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-unlocks-full-battery-capacity-free-supercharging-hurricane-michael/

Tesla’s temporary range upgrade is possible due to Model S 40, S 60, and S 70 vehicles being equipped with larger battery packs. When the company was manufacturing the Model S, Tesla opted to optimize its production by equipping its lower-trim cars with larger battery packs that were software-limited. Thus, Model S 40 vehicles were released with a 60 kWh battery pack that’s software-limited to 40 kWh. Later, Model S 60 and S 70 trims were fitted with 75 kWh packs that were restricted to 60 kWh and 70 kWh. Owners of these vehicles are given the option to unlock their vehicles’ full battery capacity as an aftermarket upgrade. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Sniper said:

Is Elon getting desperate? Eliminating retail stores? Does he think people will order cars online, just like they order DVDs on Amazon? Who's going to fix them?

Tesla stock tanks a day after announcement on store closures, layoffs and first-quarter loss

Tesla shares fell 8 percent Friday, a day after the electric car maker said it will be shuttering some stores and cutting jobs to reduce costs.

CEO Elon Musk also said Tesla won’t turn a profit during the first quarter as it works to deliver its mid-size Model 3 sedan at a more affordable price tag of $35,000.

“Given that there is a lot happening in Q1, and we are taking a lot of one time charges, and there are a lot of challenges getting cars to China and Europe, we do not expect to be profitable in Q1,” Musk said on a call with reporters Thursday evening.

The store closures are part of a push to slash costs as much as possible to ensure the lowest-priced version of the car makes money.

“There’s no way around it,” Musk said on the call.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/01/tesla-shares-slide-after-announcing-store-closures-layoffs-and-a-loss.html

 

The shares fell because he stated they won't turn a profit this quarter, not because they are going to online sales only.  And yes, people will purchase them online, that is how most of them have been sold to this point.  And closing down the sales department has nothing to do with the service centers.  

The announcements made yesterday we're nothing short of amazing, they now have the $35,000 car, with features beyond what anyone expected, and all the Model 3's made to this point will be getting significant reductions in 0-60 times and increased top speeds, all through a software update that happens automatically in your driveway!  Who does that!??

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.



×
×
  • Create New...