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Zeke

Electric cars as the norm vs the exception

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12 minutes ago, 10X said:

I see a majority of cars being electric in 20 years, but then the rate of adoption will tail off, as everyone for whom electric is a good fit will have one, and the technology won’t have advanced to the point where electric can fully replace internal combustion for everyone else.   It’s likely to be a very long time before battery technology will approach the energy density of gas or diesel, and for a lot of applications, that matters. 

Urban is going to be quick . But several companies are entering the freight liner fray. Caveats battery and charging. But getting regeanterive braking, and some kid invented solar paint... who knows.

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11 minutes ago, myhatinthering said:

Not only that, but until battery technology gives us a car that can go 65mph for 500 miles, many are not buying

I included the “many” in the 50% that I don’t think will have electric cars in 20 years.  

I’m assuming that costs will fall fairly rapidly during that time, which is usually true for emerging technologies as they become more widely adopted, and I think falling costs will gradually eliminate the need for subsidies to make electric cars cost competitive. But clearly there are some performance specs that electrics can’t match (range, time to refuel/recharge)

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1 hour ago, 67gtonut said:

When push comes to shove they will just make even more efficient combustion engine vehicles. 

This is more realistic. Car manufacturers have always been in bed with big oil, so there was no reason to make more efficient engines, even though the technology exists to do so.

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I dunno when the "norm" will be, but the replacement car for the wife's (current?) commute is planned to be a used (3 yr old) Fiat 500e (est: $9000).  Has enough range for the round trip commute, and her work is already on board with letting her charge (120V) while there.  It won't fully recharge it, but an 8 hour charge time will net her about 35 miles additional range; more than enough to cover contingencies.  We'd then just rent a bigger car for the weekend when we need to take trips to see the in-laws in western PA.

As for ubiquity, I still say that in general, it's the recharge time that's the limiting factor.  We stop in Carlisle for 10-15 minutes to tank up, get snacks, pee, stretch.  charging times need to get much closer to liquid fuel refill rates for them to become far more viable.

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A couple of other strikes against EVs.

One, the trend is getting away from cars, more people want SUVs or Trucks. Even Ford has reduced the number of cars they will be building, so for EVs to take hold, they need to produce bigger vehicles. What will the price be on Electric SUVs and Electric Pickups?

Second, the cost to replace a battery pack is like $10K, batteries don't last forever. How many people will like spending that type of "coin" at 100K miles? Can you imagine your mechanic telling you your car needs a new motor at 100K miles for $10K?

 

 

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https://jalopnik.com/this-is-what-happens-when-you-put-300-000-miles-on-a-te-1798662230

the 100k miles and you need a new pack thing is a bit of a wive's tale.
and it's dependent on how you treat your batteries as well.  clearly a little user-education will be needed, but I suspect the average moron will quickly get into the groove of plugging in their car when they come home.

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4 minutes ago, sota said:

https://jalopnik.com/this-is-what-happens-when-you-put-300-000-miles-on-a-te-1798662230

the 100k miles and you need a new pack thing is a bit of a wive's tale.
and it's dependent on how you treat your batteries as well.  clearly a little user-education will be needed, but I suspect the average moron will quickly get into the groove of plugging in their car when they come home.

Only thing that prevents this in infrastructure. Ac and car etc

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28 minutes ago, 10X said:

I included the “many” in the 50% that I don’t think will have electric cars in 20 years.  

I’m assuming that costs will fall fairly rapidly during that time, which is usually true for emerging technologies as they become more widely adopted, and I think falling costs will gradually eliminate the need for subsidies to make electric cars cost competitive. But clearly there are some performance specs that electrics can’t match (range, time to refuel/recharge)

 I hear you, I just think that people fail to realize I hear you, I just think that people fail to realize it took more than 15 years to complete the World Trade Center. To move an entire country into the path of electrical Vehicles is a Monumental task. Gone are the days we can complete a aircraft carrier in under 3 months from start to finish. I for one have no interest in electric vehicle and you can have cars that run on water for crying out loud I mean the technology is there to do things differently but again it's really about jobs and how do you profit from it

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What a load of Horseshit.  Energy efficient my ass.  All that energy to charge those batteries came from where?  And of course there is no loss in the charging circuitry, never mind parasitic loss.  Until they are 100% solar they are a complete waste.

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26 minutes ago, sota said:

https://jalopnik.com/this-is-what-happens-when-you-put-300-000-miles-on-a-te-1798662230

the 100k miles and you need a new pack thing is a bit of a wive's tale.
and it's dependent on how you treat your batteries as well.  clearly a little user-education will be needed, but I suspect the average moron will quickly get into the groove of plugging in their car when they come home.

Sure, because everyone knows, the majority of people follow maintenance schedules and tech details exactly as written all the time, right?

But, that's nice that you cherry picked ONE Tesla for an example.

 

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I happened to link one article that I could remember and find quickly.

If you do your own research, go look for taxi companies that have published usage data on Teslas they own and use in their fleet.  I can't find that article (yet) but the results were Teslas had fewer per mile vehicle issues than ICE vehicles.  IIRC, they had one vehicle have an "infant mortality" problem with its battery pack, and several others that were medium/long miles before pack degradation/replacement, and many more that were very long miles.

But you go do you.

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here's something no one's talking about with the advent of hybrids/electrics. infrastructure maintenance. states will be losing big time fuel tax income. they're gonna hafta make that up somehow. like doing a per mile charge, which will of course require tracking your driving. 

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7 minutes ago, 1LtCAP said:

here's something no one's talking about with the advent of hybrids/electrics. infrastructure maintenance. states will be losing big time fuel tax income. they're gonna hafta make that up somehow. like doing a per mile charge, which will of course require tracking your driving. 

Already happening

http://www.governing.com/topics/transportation-infrastructure/sl-gas-tax-revenue-fuel-efficient-fees.html

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7 hours ago, Sniper said:

Never happen.

EVs will always be a novelty or status symbol, or maybe, if you have burnable cash laying around, a toy to drive on Sundays.

And this is why. They could never be mainstream for business people, tradesmen or anyone else who drives a lot or has a long commute.

Another BIG point that the "Greenies" don't even think about. The amount of pollution and waste from battery production or solar power production is HUGE. When these facts come out, the "sheep" will wake up.

Plus, the infrastructure needed to charge large amounts of EVs at once needs to be built, and the power needed to "fuel" them is a issue.

Nothing Musk doesn't can survive without government subsidies.

 

Exactly right.

They are decades and decades ...if ever...being a suitable replacement.  And while all those FREE charging outlets are being installed in parking garages and other places....  what are all those Tesla owners going to say when they have to pay at those stations?  Not to mention, electricity is a terribly inefficient source of energy.  And the more of it you move, the more expensive it becomes to move per unit of energy.

When will an EV be capable of having the same range as a diesel vehicle with a 200 gallon tank?   And no.... the entire 53’ trailer can’t be a battery.

And....as was all over the news.... when its approaching zero degrees F... their capacity drops to about 50%.  Not good for anyone North of Nashville.

And............. as car companies spin up EV production....that production is mostly happening in....China.   Not cool....

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6 hours ago, Zeke said:

Crushed soul day when @1LtCAP gets owned light to light by a Tesla. And I know what that’s going to do to you

As I understand it, the only production vehicle faster in 0 to 60 than a Tesla is a McClaren.  As interesting as that is... I’m not sure anyone really cares.

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I hope one day someone can figure out the efficiency problem and make better use of cleaner energies. It's a shame how rough the process can be to extract the materials needed for solar panels. But with enough investment, things will continue to improve. Look at the battery technology of Formula 1 and Formula E to see what can eventually be transferred to us. More efficient energy recovery systems storing energy from braking. Cheaper currently to charge a car than fill it up and if you hit up a super charger station, it only takes like 30 minutes making longer distance travel easier than previously. But as previously mentioned in this thread, there's tons of profit in current fuel industries so they currently have no incentive to try to switch sources of energy.

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Rechargeable lithium batteries have reached their technological limit.  Until a more efficient battery is created or used, electric cars will continue to fall short of their "fossil fuel" counterparts.  I say choose what you want, but the other side does not have that level of objectivity.   Even Obama gave some pie-in-the-sky speech last year about how there will be this great, but currently unknown energy source that will exist in about 50 years that will make gas engines obsolete.  If there is another energy source that can replace gas engines efficiently without having to be financially propped up by our government, then go for it....when it actually exists.  Until that happens, Mr Obama and the rest of the "Green New Deal" backers (I am talking to you, Senator Spartacus !!) need to disengage from magical thinking.

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7 hours ago, Zeke said:

Crushed soul day when @1LtCAP gets owned light to light by a Tesla. And I know what that’s going to do to you

i'd still run his ass. I don't care. the thrill is the race. of course it's better to win, but......well.....you get the point. 

1 hour ago, Kevin125 said:

As I understand it, the only production vehicle faster in 0 to 60 than a Tesla is a McClaren.  As interesting as that is... I’m not sure anyone really cares.

demon's are supposedly 10.8 cars. the first one he eats runs low 11 second.....

 

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Until electrics can recharge 70+% in 15 minutes or less, and/or get 400+ miles per charge, and recharge stations are nearly as ubiquitous as gas stations are now, I don't see the adoption rate going really high outside of urban areas where people aren't traveling far to begin with.  Hybrids will make the most sense for the future of electrics for at least 10-15 years, IMO, as you can still fill up a tank and keep going, while getting some of the benefits of electric.  In 10-15 years, battery prices may have come down to more reasonable levels with newer/better technologies.

As for a majority of cars being electric/hybrid...in 6 years I wonder if 10-15% of cars on the road will be electric.  I still see 1980's Hondas driven around, and believe me, they are not show cars...  Once there are a large number of inexpensive electrics out on the used market, then those numbers will rise fairly quickly as old ICE cars fall apart and break.  As electrics/hybrids start really making up more than fractions of a percent (guessing) of the used car market, their use will finally start growing, especially if new replacement batteries can hit around $750-1500 instead of the $4000+ (?) of today.  That said, I don't expect a majority for another 15-20 years at least.

In the meantime, I want a modern version of the Opel Eco Speedster...lightweight car that handles well with a 1.3L turbo diesel with a 155mph top speed and capable of 112mpg.  Add 15-20 years of engine design improvements and better composites and other technologies over the original, and it could be a very fun car without the need to go hybrid or electric.  Unfortunately, it seems I'm a minority in wanting a car, not an SUV/truck...

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I think you guys that think this is going to take 20 years or more are kidding yourselves.  It is going to happen a lot faster than that.  Electric cars are much cheaper to produce and maintain.  There are a tiny number of parts compared to an ICE or hybrid.  Hybrids are actually the worst of both worlds, and I am not a hybrid detractor having owned three of them.  But think about it, they are probably one of the most complicated forms of propulsion out there effectively combining and ICE with an electric and having lots of technology to make the two work together.  Very expensive to build.

I have a friend that has a new Tesla, not the model3, one that costs around $80,000.  She can get about 300 miles out of it and when she goes to one of the charging stations on the highway charges it in about 20 minutes.  Sure it is longer than a fuel up, and less places to fill up right now - but that will change.  Yes, Tesla will likely not exist in 2-5 years, either they will fail or someone will buy them.  It is just a matter of time till one of the big auto makers takes over this market.  As for trucks and big SUV's, well electric makes more sense and will actually work better in them.  Think about how they have to get inventive cramming batteries into small cars, at big pickup has lots of room to put batteries.  Just think if they increased the height of a truck by say 3" they could come up with a battery pack that fit in the bed of a truck (or under it).  That would be a huge battery without taking up needed space.  

Yes a lot will change with these vehicles, but anytime you introduce new technology it takes a while for the bugs to be worked out, the infrastructure developed and the early adopters to work out the bugs.  We are nearing the inflection point where EV is set to take off.

 

 

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Hmm do you are saying that electrics are cheaper to produce. That would explain why something like the Chevy bolt which is basically on par with a Honda fit, costs an extra ~$20k. Because it's cheaper to produce. Or the model 3 which is, if one is being honest, Mazda 6 levels of nice inside, can't seem to get actual cars out the door under $50k and can't turn a profit at that price. 

 

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Look I don't want to call anybody ignorant but there is a reason why Tesla is Reliant upon billions in government subsidies to get this company and Market moving. To say electric is cheaper is monumentally dumb at best. Oil is getting cheaper to procure and new fields are being found almost every month. The technology to run cars while many aspects is matured there are still at Vance's to be made. I mean this whole discussion is an exercise in futility because it's all going to come down to how much money will it take to convert from one type of market economy to another and to be perfectly clear, we simply don't have those resources nor the psychological desire to do so.

 I would also point out that our current electrical system would never be I would also point out that our current electrical system would never be able to handle and increase in the type of demand that electric vehicles would bring so there is that cost as well. 100 years yes 20 years I don't know whether to laugh or laugh and cry

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12 minutes ago, raz-0 said:

Hmm do you are saying that electrics are cheaper to produce. That would explain why something like the Chevy bolt which is basically on par with a Honda fit, costs an extra ~$20k. Because it's cheaper to produce. Or the model 3 which is, if one is being honest, Mazda 6 levels of nice inside, can't seem to get actual cars out the door under $50k and can't turn a profit at that price. 

 

You are comparing low volume nitche products to mass market developed products. The batteries are expensive, but the actual drive train is cheaper to produce and maintain.  When you look at the life cycle costing electric will kill ICE.  You don't have to believe, but just wait and watch.

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7 minutes ago, myhatinthering said:

Look I don't want to call anybody ignorant but there is a reason why Tesla is Reliant upon billions in government subsidies to get this company and Market moving. To say electric is cheaper is monumentally dumb at best. Oil is getting cheaper to procure and new fields are being found almost every month. The technology to run cars while many aspects is matured there are still at Vance's to be made. I mean this whole discussion is an exercise in futility because it's all going to come down to how much money will it take to convert from one type of market economy to another and to be perfectly clear, we simply don't have those resources nor the psychological desire to do so.

 I would also point out that our current electrical system would never be I would also point out that our current electrical system would never be able to handle and increase in the type of demand that electric vehicles would bring so there is that cost as well. 100 years yes 20 years I don't know whether to laugh or laugh and cry

Just curious, but what are the government subsidies that Tesla is reliant upon?  Are you talking about the same ones that GM got for the Volt or that any company that produced initial hybrids got?  Remember these are already phasing out for Tesla and will be gone soon.  I think they actually turned a profit two quarters in a row now.  I am no Tesla fan, but to claim they are getting some special treatment seems non genuine.

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