Jump to content
Zeke

Electric cars as the norm vs the exception

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, Howard said:

You are comparing low volume nitche products to mass market developed products. The batteries are expensive, but the actual drive train is cheaper to produce and maintain.  When you look at the life cycle costing electric will kill ICE.  You don't have to believe, but just wait and watch.

Tesla model 3 shipped over 100k units in 2018. What the fuck you talking low volume and niche? 

People keep telling me they are cheaper to make. Which should mean they are cheaper to buy, or that there are huge margins on them. Except they are WAY more expensive to buy, and the manufacturers are having trouble making money on them if you believe what they say. 

I had the theory that it was weight reduction that cost, but look at the nissan leaf and versa note. Same chassis, $12k premium for electric. 

I'm not anti electric, I'm just anti believing in bullshit, and something stinks with the narrative that it's cheaper and easier. 

Also, if we exclude heavy trucks, construction equipment, motrocycles etc. And just transitioned passenger vehicles, AND we averaged 65kwh batteries, we have enough lithium reserves to get us through the next 20 years.... so....

Lots of obstacles. 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

100,000 is a tiny number in a what is basically a commodity business.  You need much bigger numbers to allocate fixed costs.  Further, they don't have the distribution network - they are really a very small company trying to convince people otherwise.  But even if we accept that they cost more to buy (right now) the life cycle cost should be much lower due to the simplicity and lower maintenance costs.  Think how many parts an internal combustion engine has versus and electric motor.  I have no skin in this game and really don't care one way or the other - but this is coming and the rate of adoption is accelerating.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, raz-0 said:

People keep telling me they are cheaper to make. Which should mean they are cheaper to buy, or that there are huge margins on them. Except they are WAY more expensive to buy, and the manufacturers are having trouble making money on them if you believe what they say. 

 

I'm not anti electric, I'm just anti believing in bullshit, and something stinks with the narrative that it's cheaper and easier. 

 

 

 

Look at Tesla’s P&L statements...they ain’t making $...

Telsa will be dead inside a couple of years, once the subsidy $ stops. 

  • Agree 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Zeke said:

Battery tech is burgeoning. A car battery power in the size of a c cell?

its happening. $$$$$$

Unfortunately, it’s not.  Battery technology has always been the limiting factor.   Battery tech mostly improves in a slow, linear fashion, punctuated by occasional leaps forward when new chemistry  is developed (like the jumps to NiCad and then lithium).  But the next few theoretical advances are already known, along with the energy density to be expected, and getting those into production will still only be incremental improvements on what we have now.

fortunately, there is low hanging fruit for the electric car companies to pluck.   There are a LOT of cars and small trucks that are never driven more than 50 miles from home, and electric works just fine for them.  But there are a LOT that routinely drive long distances, and those will be burning fossil fuel for a long time to come. 

  • Agree 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, 10X said:

Unfortunately, it’s not.  Battery technology has always been the limiting factor.   Battery tech mostly improves in a slow, linear fashion, punctuated by occasional leaps forward when new chemistry  is developed (like the jumps to NiCad and then lithium).  But the next few theoretical advances are already known, along with the energy density to be expected, and getting those into production will still only be incremental improvements on what we have now.

fortunately, there is low hanging fruit for the electric car companies to pluck.   There are a LOT of cars and small trucks that are never driven more than 50 miles from home, and electric works just fine for them.  But there are a LOT that routinely drive long distances, and those will be burning fossil fuel for a long time to come. 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-10/sk-innovation-eyes-10-billion-battery-bet-after-major-vw-order

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/innovation/charging-ahead-future-of-batteries-180962414/

ya, um, no

and that’s jus a cursory search

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Displaced Texan said:

Yeah, VAG is making big strides with EVs, but I still think it will be quite some time before they overtake IC. 

 

Mission drives the development.

in the 90’s Nakira came out with cordless drills and acutremon . How far they have come today 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Zeke said:

And, perhaps, just a cursory read  :-)

the first article describes a planned increase in battery production, not capacity.  They want to make lots more batteries, but the tech is still Lithium ion.

The second article is consistent with what I wrote above. Na and Mg cathodes, and solid anodes are some of those theoretical advances being actively worked on, and they will likely give jumps in performance just like NiCad and Li tech did before them.  But those improvements will be useful, not global-economy-altering spectacular.  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Zeke said:

Mission drives the development.

in the 90’s Nakira came out with cordless drills and acutremon . How far they have come today 

Not apples to apples. I have no doubt that battery and charge rate technology will come along eventually, but it’s a long way down the road. 

EVs arent ‘green’ by any stretch of the imagination, either. What’s the real advantage?

  • Agree 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, 10X said:

And, perhaps, just a cursory read  :-)

the first article describes a planned increase in battery production, not capacity.  They want to make lots more batteries, but the tech is still Lithium ion.

The second article is consistent with what I wrote above. Na and Mg cathodes, and solid anodes are some of those theoretical advances being actively worked on, and they will likely give jumps in performance just like NiCad and Li tech did before them.  But those improvements will be useful, not global-economy-altering spectacular.  

Ugg! You! I shall research and post further to win this argument!

standby

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Displaced Texan said:

Not apples to apples. I have no doubt that battery and charge rate technology will come along eventually, but it’s a long way down the road. 

EVs arent ‘green’ by any stretch of the imagination, either. What’s the real advantage?

Nothing in the batteries.  The electric motors are smoother and much more responsive.  I saw a "drag race" between an electric motored m113 apc and a standard diesel.   The electric did 1/8 mile before diesel got 100 feet.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, PeteF said:

Nothing in the batteries.  The electric motors are smoother and much more responsive.  I saw a "drag race" between an electric motored m113 apc and a standard diesel.   The electric did 1/8 mile before diesel got 100 feet.

I know electrics have instantaneous torque, and are faster. I meant in terms of environmental advantage. 

Still requires fossil fuel for charging, mining minerals for batteries is dirty, as well as making the batteries themselves, that’s a nasty process. 

  • Agree 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Displaced Texan said:

Look at Tesla’s P&L statements...they ain’t making $...

Telsa will be dead inside a couple of years, once the subsidy $ stops. 

that is presuming that the next dimwit president doesn't give them back those subsidies

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I predict we are 2 maybe 3 election cycles away from the libs taking over our country. (unless they implode before that) Then they will tell us just who has to buy EVs. If you drive less then X miles a week to work it will be mandated that you must get an EV. It wont be your choice. As will be most purchases. They know best what you need. It's for the better good you know. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, PeteF said:

The electric motors are smoother and much more responsive.  I saw a "drag race" between an electric motored m113 apc and a standard diesel. 

I bet that acceleration really comes in handy when sitting in bumper to bumper traffic on the CA 405, right?

3 hours ago, Displaced Texan said:

Still requires fossil fuel for charging, mining minerals for batteries is dirty, as well as making the batteries themselves, that’s a nasty process. 

Shhhhh.... don't tell the "greenies"... they think the electric is FREE and batteries are bought at Walmart.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 2/11/2019 at 4:13 PM, Sniper said:

A couple of other strikes against EVs.

One, the trend is getting away from cars, more people want SUVs or Trucks. Even Ford has reduced the number of cars they will be building, so for EVs to take hold, they need to produce bigger vehicles. What will the price be on Electric SUVs and Electric Pickups?

Second, the cost to replace a battery pack is like $10K, batteries don't last forever. How many people will like spending that type of "coin" at 100K miles? Can you imagine your mechanic telling you your car needs a new motor at 100K miles for $10K?

 

 

This is part of the problem, I see this today with new outboards emission friendly ( Fuel not electric) the technology is very expensive so buying and having payment plan allows owner to purchase but once it is out of warranty owners cannot afford to repair them then the boat sits in driveway while they make the payments and do not use it. Cannot sell it because it does not run I can see this happening with EV'S. Until they become cost effective it will be a niche product.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, tony357 said:

This is part of the problem, I see this today with new outboards emission friendly ( Fuel not electric) the technology is very expensive so buying and having payment plan allows owner to purchase but once it is out of warranty owners cannot afford to repair them then the boat sits in driveway while they make the payments and do not use it. Cannot sell it because it does not run I can see this happening with EV'S. Until they become cost effective it will be a niche product.

Man do I miss 2strokes.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

No "libs" will need to force this upon us, as more and more people get to experience driving electric, they will fairly quickly adopt then as soon as they are able to afford them.  There is a reason that Porsche and Audi are so aggressively going electric, it's because they lost a ton of sales to Tesla, because once those demanding owners had a taste of a driving experience that was worlds better, they had no interest in ICE any more.

All the talk about them not being green, in addition to being incorrect, is irrelevant, because Tesla has shown that EV's don't necessarily have to be about virtue signalling, they can in fact be much more fun and exciting cars.  That's the reason they don't advertise and can't build them quickly enough.  So many of you just sound like rubes clinging to your older tech, as if the future can't be fun.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, tony357 said:

This is part of the problem, I see this today with new outboards emission friendly ( Fuel not electric) the technology is very expensive so buying and having payment plan allows owner to purchase but once it is out of warranty owners cannot afford to repair them then the boat sits in driveway while they make the payments and do not use it. Cannot sell it because it does not run I can see this happening with EV'S. Until they become cost effective it will be a niche product.

How many tools do you have that use electric motors?  Now, how many of those motors failed under normal use?  An electric motor has 3 moving parts.  It's some weird fantasy you've cooked up that they will be sitting in need of repairs.  They have many fewer point of failure that our traditional vehicles, and as a result their maintenance is greatly reduced.  there are now Tesla's with 400,000 miles on them that have needed nothing but wipers and tires.  They don't even need their Brembo brake pads replaced in those incredible durations, because they rarely use their brakes.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Darrenf said:

How many tools do you have that use electric motors?  Now, how many of those motors failed under normal use?  An electric motor has 3 moving parts.  It's some weird fantasy you've cooked up that they will be sitting in need of repairs.  They have many fewer point of failure that our traditional vehicles, and as a result their maintenance is greatly reduced.  there are now Tesla's with 400,000 miles on them that have needed nothing but wipers and tires.  They don't even need their Brembo brake pads replaced in those incredible durations, because they rarely use their brakes.

 

Dear god don't be obtuse. He was giving an example of kind of expensive to buy, too expensive to maintain. 

The electric motor is likely not where things will fail. And granted it isn't just a tesla thing, but look at the cost to replace a windshield or a bumper these days due to all teh sensors and needing calibration. 

Teslas are INSANELY expensive to deal with from a body work standpoint. And unless they start standardizing on how to space optimize some of these processes across the industry, it's going to be problematic because one thing they all have inc ommon is needing a relatively large amount of space to calibrate. Which means you have limited facilities that can do it and that drives up cost. 

One of the fun things looming on the horizon is that it is entirely possible you will have to total cars over a broken windshield due to the active crash avoidance tech. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, raz-0 said:

Dear god don't be obtuse. He was giving an example of kind of expensive to buy, too expensive to maintain. 

The electric motor is likely not where things will fail. And granted it isn't just a tesla thing, but look at the cost to replace a windshield or a bumper these days due to all teh sensors and needing calibration. 

Teslas are INSANELY expensive to deal with from a body work standpoint. And unless they start standardizing on how to space optimize some of these processes across the industry, it's going to be problematic because one thing they all have inc ommon is needing a relatively large amount of space to calibrate. Which means you have limited facilities that can do it and that drives up cost. 

One of the fun things looming on the horizon is that it is entirely possible you will have to total cars over a broken windshield due to the active crash avoidance tech. 

 

Not being obtuse at all.  Besides the power train, what in a Tesla is unique to Tesla in their price range?  Implying that they are going to need more repair than a comparable gas powered car is laughable, and not in accordance with the statistics.  Tesla's larger cars are have aluminum bodies, which is more expensive to repair, but not out of line with other cars in their price range.  Try repairing the Carbon fiber on a BMW M5 and then get back to me.  Some act as if the fact that few body shops are competent in these repairs is unique to Tesla, when in fact it is the same for Porsche and Audi, they all have their sensors and electronics running throughout the bodies and integrated into the glass now.  That has nothing to do with the car being electric, it has to do with all the high end features. 

And if you have to total a car over a windshield, that is bad design, not anything to do with the technology.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Darrenf said:

Not being obtuse at all.  Besides the power train, what in a Tesla is unique to Tesla in their price range?  Implying that they are going to need more repair than a comparable gas powered car is laughable, and not in accordance with the statistics.  Tesla's larger cars are have aluminum bodies, which is more expensive to repair, but not out of line with other cars in their price range.  Try repairing the Carbon fiber on a BMW M5 and then get back to me.  You act as if the fact that few body shops are competent in these repairs is unique to Tesla, when in fact it is the same for Porsche and Audi, they all have there sensors and electronics running throughout the bodies and integrated into the glass now.  That has nothing to do with the car being electric, it has to do with all the high end features. 

And if you have to total a car over a windshield, that is bad design, not anything to do with the technology.  

OK lets put it this way. Luxury cars are painting themselves into this corner and Tesla is leading the charge with their compute pakcage and sensors. Outside of the super exotics, they probably have the problem worst dollar for dollar. 

As for teh windshield thing, look at subaru. 

Their eyesight system needs the windshields to hold a very, very tight spec. If they don't keep producing them, you wind up with the issue of an insurance repair not being able to get key parts for a safety device. Waht does the insurance company do then? The insurance companies aren't saying, but those who have to deal with claims speculate the answer is total the car. 

Earlier in the lifecycle you are looking at a $2500 windshield replacement. Add a little bodywork, and even if you have the parts how many years does it take for a minor accident to total a car. 

EVs are being inherently bundled as tech rich vehicles and are at the bleeding edge of this problem. They don't have to be, but they are. The only part that kind of has to be is the battery pack tech given they are inherently pricey and are host to some key tech for safety of the battery pack. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, raz-0 said:

OK lets put it this way. Luxury cars are painting themselves into this corner and Tesla is leading the charge with their compute pakcage and sensors. Outside of the super exotics, they probably have the problem worst dollar for dollar. 

 

They provide the most technology for the dollar, and somehow that's a negative. :facepalm:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Zeke said:

@Darrenf and @raz-0. Good points.

lose the dodads,( mostly with this self driving disaster) and price upfront and repair could comedown drastically.

That may be true, but most Tesla owners know very well that they are on the cutting edge of self driving development and are willing to pay to invest in that progress.    And I'm pretty sure sensors for emergency braking and collision avoidance are going to be required on all new cars pretty soon.  The body shops will either learn how to deal with it, or they will die off to those who can.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Darrenf said:

That may be true, but most Tesla owners know very well that they are on the cutting edge of self driving development and are willing to pay to invest in that progress.    And I'm pretty sure sensors for emergency braking and collision avoidance are going to be required on all new cars pretty soon.  The body shops will either learn how to deal with it, or they will die off to those who can.

 

Fair point.

Jus read Tesla has introduced “ dog mode” for pets left in vehicles. The legislation battle on that is going to be interesting.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, Darrenf said:

They provide the most technology for the dollar, and somehow that's a negative. :facepalm:

I guess you never heard of KISS.  The more "technology" they put in a car, the more likely it is to fail miserably.  

You are delusional if you think the environment the electric motors see in a car will have no affect on their longevity.  Large temperature swings,  acceleration demands.  Dirt, grime etc.   No no affect at all.  Now lets look at the other issues.  Salt on high amperage cables?  No possible issue there.   Battery manufacturers can't make a 50AH  battery that lasts for more than 5 years but we are supposed to believe that the battery pack of an electric car will last 10-12 years.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
46 minutes ago, Darrenf said:

That may be true, but most Tesla owners know very well that they are on the cutting edge of self driving development and are willing to pay to invest in that progress. 

Tesla buyers AREN'T buy Tesla because of the technology. It's a cult following, just to say you have a Tesla, that's why they pay double. Just like Apple when they first came out. Macs, iPhones, iPods, etc. a;; cost DOUBLE what the competition was offering, but people bought them anyway, just because it said "Apple" on the outside.

Tesla's are no different. They buy Teslas just to tell their friends "I have a Tesla". If it was because they just wanted a EV, there are other they could buy for a lot less.

27 minutes ago, PeteF said:

Battery manufacturers can't make a 50AH  battery that lasts for more than 5 years but we are supposed to believe that the battery pack of an electric car will last 10-12 years.

That's going to be the "surprise" for the EV owners.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.



  • olight.jpg

    Use Promo Code "NJGF10" for 10% Off Regular Items

  • Supporting Vendors

  • Latest Topics

  • Posts

    • Any more 7.62 x 51?  If previous falls through, I'll take it.
    • SIG is having a one-day sales on their GS Extreme ear buds. Anyone use these?  https://goaxil.com/pages/gsextreme-sigsauer?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=paid_social&utm_campaign=pr&utm_term=sigcmstatic6&fbclid=IwAR2u9gIO4TaxkUzlO1ITYAMn8gQlaE3UphUPWbVEK0U0eeApkXTNyx80gMg#product
    • Thanks. Refresher: Requiring Firearm Safety Training: S-2169/A-5030 (Weinberg/Reynolds-Jackson) would modernize firearm ID cards, as well as require completion of a firearm safety course in order to receive a permit to purchase a gun or receive a firearm ID card. Connecticut, California, Hawaii, Illinois, Rhode Island, Maryland and the District of Columbia all have laws requiring individuals to undergo safety training prior to being able to purchase. [How would this apply to existing FID holders? Definition of acceptable training? Conspicuously absent. Potential impacts on passing on firearms to your heirs.] Mandating Safe Storage of Firearms: Owning a firearm for protection in the home can present a substantial obstacle to safe firearm storage, with individuals often opting to keep weapons loaded and easily accessible. Last legislative session, the Assembly passed A-3696/S-2240 (Downey/Gopal) requiring firearm owners to store the firearm in a securely locked box or container; in a location where a reasonable person would believe to be secure; or to secure the firearm with a trigger lock.  Raising Minimum Age to Purchase Long Guns to 21: Under current law, a person 18 years of age and older may obtain a firearms purchaser identification card and a handgun purchaser is required to be at least 21 years old. The bill (A-1141/S-3605, Freiman/Cryan) increases from 18 to 21 the age at which a person is eligible to receive a firearms purchaser identification card used to purchase shotguns and rifles but would still allow for those at least 18 to possess a long gun for purposes of hunting; military drills; competition; target practice; training; or under the supervision of a parent or guardian.   Promoting Microstamping Technology: Microstamping technology provides law enforcement with the tools to quickly link firearm cartridge casings found at the scene of a crime to a specific firearm, without having to recover the firearm itself.  The technology essentially creates a “license plate” on cartridge casings to identify the gun that was used to shoot the ammunition.  Last legislative session, S-112/A-1098 (Weinberg/Downey) would require within a year that firearm manufacturers incorporate this technology into new handguns sold in New Jersey. [This worked so well in CA... IOW, no more new pistols for sale.] Establishing Electronic Ammunition Sales Recordkeeping: The State Commission of Investigation (SCI) issued a report in 2016 finding that straw purchases of ammunition were unchecked because firearm IDs lacked photo identification.  The SCI also found that sales records were often hand-written into log books — a problem for law enforcement, which should be able to consult an electronic database when it investigates questionable ammunition purchases.  A-1292/S-1481 (Greenwald/Weinberg) would require manufacturers or dealers of handgun ammunition to keep a detailed electronic record of ammunition sales, and report ammunition sales to the State Police. [Any talk of banning internet sales?] Banning .50 Caliber Firearms: Military-style .50 caliber rifles are banned or restricted in several other states. California has a complete ban on .50-caliber rifles, Connecticut bans specific models and Maryland has some restrictions.  S-103/A-1280 (Gill/Greenwald) would revise the definition of "destructive device" under New Jersey law so that it includes weapons of .50 caliber or greater. [It's about time. These things are used in what... zero crimes in this state annually?] I wouldn't be surprised if remaining evil features, others, and internet sales, among other things, get added to the list.
    • I dropped my Trenton Times subscription after the January 7th headline. Bought a paper last week on Thanksgiving for my wife... $8 and completely useless! Won't be doing that again.
    • The Gov referenced these initiatives back in April:  https://nj.gov/governor/news/news/562021/20210415b.shtml        
×
×
  • Create New...