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myhatinthering

interesting article from arfcom

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Well if we are going to wargame - his numbers - well they are lopsided IMO- but I do not 100% disagree.

His war game is akin to the stories that Kurt Schlicter poses and that is when the US Military becomes involved.

He assumes, incorrectly that we can field 300 Million gun owners to resist, that is fools math.

Best case scenario (and these are not hard numbers) I see 100Million gun owners in this nation that own the VAST majority of the firearms (I read this stat somewhere)

Now lets say that we take the number of a quarter that are willing to fight and die preserving their freedoms, ok 25 Million.

How many are trained and not just cannon fodder - ok another 25% - 6.25million

Are they organized?  Where are they located? Can they form up? What happens when the media labels them domestic terrorists?  What happen when the rank and file population that has no stomach for CW2.0 turns on them? etc etc etc.

For this to be successful - there has to be those that are willing to lay down their lives and fight in such large numbers that storming the state house in Trenton is not out of the realm of possibility or any of the state houses across the nation etc.

War gaming is interesting and great for fiction that Rawles likes to write - not so out of the realm of possibility - but fiction nonetheless.

There was a guy out hear that said some of what I am about to post - I saw his old posts - he was right:

" What they cannot do Federally they will do and achieve at the state level " 

" This is a generational war that is being fought for the hearts and minds of the children "

" The battles we are losing today are the lack of planning 30 years ago "

" The battle being fought against the 2A is like the war against big tobacco "

He is right - 

They death of the 2A will not come in confiscations, door kickers etc. it will come by the death of generational warfare that the others are winning and soon the youth will have nothing more to do with guns AND freedom.

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2 hours ago, USRifle30Cal said:

Best case scenario (and these are not hard numbers) I see 100Million gun owners in this nation that own the VAST majority of the firearms (I read this stat somewhere)

Remember, it only takes 3% to produce "change"..

What could 3,000,000 "focused" individuals accomplish in the country?

Averaged out, that would be 60,000 per state. Could 60,000 pissed off gun owners take over control of NJ?

How about half that number?

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9 hours ago, USRifle30Cal said:

Well if we are going to wargame - his numbers - well they are lopsided IMO- but I do not 100% disagree.

His war game is akin to the stories that Kurt Schlicter poses and that is when the US Military becomes involved.

He assumes, incorrectly that we can field 300 Million gun owners to resist, that is fools math.

What article are you reading? At no point does he argue 300 million gun owners. He points out there are about 250 million adults in the us and the at least number for how many guns per capita are in circulation. 

The biggest number he poses as actual resistance is the veteran population at about 20 million. 

I'd argue that the scenario is very wrong as a whole, but more on that at the end.

 

Quote

Best case scenario (and these are not hard numbers) I see 100Million gun owners in this nation that own the VAST majority of the firearms (I read this stat somewhere)

The estimates are that the number of gun owners in the US are 100 million. The number that owns semi-automatic rifles is smaller than that. 

The only ownership stat he gins up is that to get all the semi-autos, you would have to raid 9 million households. This is based on his estimate of number of semi-auto guns out there (which is probably conservative for the reason he states), and his math of netting 3 prohibited guns per raid. Which Is a number that may be high or low. I really can't say. LOTS of people tend to own way more than one semi auto rifle. On the other hand, how good would the data mining be to target things successfully? My guess is that the number of raids would have to be much higher because you would have WAY less than 100% accuracy on semi auto ownership. 

 

Quote

Now lets say that we take the number of a quarter that are willing to fight and die preserving their freedoms, ok 25 Million.

How many are trained and not just cannon fodder - ok another 25% - 6.25million

Are they organized?  Where are they located? Can they form up? What happens when the media labels them domestic terrorists?  What happen when the rank and file population that has no stomach for CW2.0 turns on them? etc etc etc.

This is where I think a whole bunch of people stop thinking rationally, and the author's nod to the IRA is apt, and it becomes important to keep in mind that the number of raids is seriously, seriously optimistic. 

His math is a bit off. Doing some rounding to whole numbers, it's really 869 raids per team, and thus 869 raids per officer to hit that optimistic number. Assuming no attrition, casualties, etc. 

There's ~100 million gun owners.  The question is how many of them do you get? 

There's also another ~200 million non gun owners. the question is what will they put up with before they see the government as a problem? 

Because the reality is you are likely going to have to kick down WAY more than 9 million doors to get them all. Even at 9 million, that's basically one in every 13 homes.  And that is if they ONLY ban semi auto rifles and things work out beyond optimistically. Realistically, even with high quality data mining, face to face sales, 80% receivers, etc will mean going to a number of households larger than that, AND so far the stupidity seems to want to include semi auto pistols. So... WAY. WAYYYYY more households than that. 

But lets be kind and say double it.  That means kicking in the door of about 1 in 5 households. That will generate opinions amongst the populace. 

And he already suggested how it would be organized. It'll be the guys you know and trust. You ahve a handful of buddies you have known forever? One of them jsut got capped by a SWAT team last weekend and you are getting together after the funeral for a drink and really pissed off? Maybe you get to talking about how some fuckers need to pay? 

How many more people when they hear rumors of things that sound like they might be talking about you will give you a ring to let you know something might be happening but without putting any real skin in the game? 

This is how it happens at the very least. More organized than that? Look at how many gangs we have in the US. They have their own governing documents and rules and such. They are arguably competing forms of government in some locations. 

As a concept, the havock the IRA caused was with WAY less guns and with a peak of at best about 5000 active trouble makers. A lot more sympathetic ears and people willing to be low commitment on the fringe, but 5000 really problematic ones. 

 

Quote

For this to be successful - there has to be those that are willing to lay down their lives and fight in such large numbers that storming the state house in Trenton is not out of the realm of possibility or any of the state houses across the nation etc.

I do think he is optimistic about the retribution on the ruling class. I suspect it would look much more like enough cops get killed that the cops collect their pay checks while knowing the cops just don't go into that part of town for anything real. 

 

Quote

War gaming is interesting and great for fiction that Rawles likes to write - not so out of the realm of possibility - but fiction nonetheless.

There was a guy out hear that said some of what I am about to post - I saw his old posts - he was right:

" What they cannot do Federally they will do and achieve at the state level " 

" This is a generational war that is being fought for the hearts and minds of the children "

" The battles we are losing today are the lack of planning 30 years ago "

" The battle being fought against the 2A is like the war against big tobacco "

He is right - 

They death of the 2A will not come in confiscations, door kickers etc. it will come by the death of generational warfare that the others are winning and soon the youth will have nothing more to do with guns AND freedom.

 

I don't totally disagree with you. I have said before and I will say again that all politicians are scum. they don't care about anything but gathering power and influence and not wanting to work to retain it. 

If a ban ever did come about, there would be NO intention of enforcing it thoroughly. Just like there has been zero attempt made to really enforce ANY gun control law to date thoroughly outside of already regulated entities. 

Whenever something happens, nothing effective is suggested to prevent crime. What is suggested is  something that would make it harder to mint new gun owners and to stifle the existing social structures of gun owners. 

Why? Because to the mind of a politician they see it as destroying a voting block that opposes them FOREVER. They will likely remain opposed, but opposed and unorganized and to diffuse into other voting blocks. They don't do anything about the crime because crime creates fear, and fear can be used to gather votes. Enforcement will be arbitrary and periodic so they can keep the former gon owning voting block afraid to stand up on the subject, and keep the anti-gun voting block intact and in fear of the evil criminal gun owners. Because if you actually solved the "problem" of gun owners, the anti-gunners could vote for whoever now. If you actually fixed the criminal problem, your voters who want law and order out of fear could go vote based on other priorities. 

The only real point of conversations like this are to point out how people are being lied to, and how those who give a crap need to focus on the other strategies and put some effort into them. 

IMO the real hazard for CW2.0 surrounding guns is that we DO get a half assed ban, and some politician thinks because they said it is so, it is truly so. And decides to do something else incredibly stupid that lets them find out how many guns they didn't actually confiscate. 

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44 minutes ago, Sniper said:

Remember, it only takes 3% to produce "change"..

What could 3,000,000 "focused" individuals accomplish in the country?

Averaged out, that would be 60,000 per state. Could 60,000 pissed off gun owners take over control of NJ?

How about half that number?

no doubt in my mind actually

think about what 2 kids in Boston did to the entire city and eastern MA.

think about what 1 cop did to several counties worth of LE in souther cal

think about what the dc shooter did and the resources needed

 

now imagine groups of gun owners getting together, coordinating, etc etc.  If you think LE will risk their lives to stop that in the face of a growing resistance and more gun owners joining the fray, I've got a bridge to sell you...lol    contract, time to retirement is what matters most now. 

any organized resistance or movement would put such a strain on the gov't that it could cause it's collapse

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11 minutes ago, USRifle30Cal said:

What happens to the narrative when this start happening

 

DOMESTIC TERROIST

 

https://www.foxnews.com/us/coast-guard-lieutenant-dubbed-domestic-terrorist-had-hit-list-of-media-bigs-and-dem-lawmakers-prosecutors

 

 

I have said, it's only a matter of time before someone who has had enough, is upset at the direction of our liberties etc etc, starts shooting liberal lawmakers.  This nutjob was caught but there are more out there that we don't know about and only need a nudge to act.  It's coming is what I believe, I've no doubt about that imho

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12 minutes ago, USRifle30Cal said:

What happens to the narrative when this start happening

 

DOMESTIC TERROIST

 

https://www.foxnews.com/us/coast-guard-lieutenant-dubbed-domestic-terrorist-had-hit-list-of-media-bigs-and-dem-lawmakers-prosecutors

 

 

I like the look of that shotgun on the bottom right of that pic.

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what is troubling with the media and pd in these matters is the 'trophy display' of firearms and ammo.  It's pathetic and no different than using the 9yrold pic of a criminal to solicit a biased response vs the thug image of a murderer.

 

also, 1k rounds is hardly alot of ammo.  Hell, my kids and I go through 1k in 22lr alone when we go on a boys shoot day:)

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21 minutes ago, myhatinthering said:

I have said, it's only a matter of time before someone who has had enough, is upset at the direction of our liberties etc etc, starts shooting liberal lawmakers. 

If you recall, that already happened, but it was a group of Repub lawmakers at a softball practice a year or so ago. I believe the shooter was a Bernie Sanders supporter.

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1 hour ago, myhatinthering said:

I have said, it's only a matter of time before someone who has had enough, is upset at the direction of our liberties etc etc, starts shooting liberal lawmakers.  This nutjob was caught but there are more out there that we don't know about and only need a nudge to act.  It's coming is what I believe, I've no doubt about that imho

Wait........  ! Let me play devils advocate....

Why is he a nutjob and not a patriot?

In this thread your choice of label for him is funny to say the least... you all talk cw2.0 and this guy is a crack pot????

Maybe he would have been the catalyst to jump start the retaking of pur gov from the liberal socialist agenda...

 

So as to my earlier point the fantasy of an armed uprising upon confiscation orders is just that....fantasy....

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13 minutes ago, USRifle30Cal said:

Wait........  ! Let me play devils advocate....

Why is he a nutjob and not a patriot?

In this thread your choice of label for him is funny to say the least... you all talk cw2.0 and this guy is a crack pot????

Maybe he would have been the catalyst to jump start the retaking of pur gov from the liberal socialist agenda...

 

So as to my earlier point the fantasy of an armed uprising upon confiscation orders is just that....fantasy....

You're not playing devils advocate with this instead,  moronic.  he's planned and discussed poisoning water supplies and more.  stop, you look retarded here

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I've seen this before.  Thanks for posting.  Didn't Heinlein say something about a civil and polite society? 

Why not let the activist anti-Bill of Rights radical politicians and those corporations like Shiti Bank go door to door?  That's what law enforcement SHOULD suggest when they refuse.  Maybe Dicks Heads Sporting goods will provided them with Camo Outfits for the outing.  I guess its fantasy to believe that these nogood doers won't stop poking the bear.  Why can't they be reasonable?  it is sad that my children will have to be in this post Republic and they are having such trouble with progressive math at their "progressive" schools.   Too bad this articles couldn't be used for extra credit.  I want them to grow up in a polite society of Life, Liberty, and the pursuit of Happiness.  

Aren't the Statists against bullies?  Why do they try to bully the people?

As a side note...   Is there anyone that doesn't believe that there is an organizing faction and they won't be going door to door.

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2 hours ago, Sniper said:

If you recall, that already happened, but it was a group of Repub lawmakers at a softball practice a year or so ago. I believe the shooter was a Bernie Sanders supporter.

Yes, but Republicans are really Decmocrats and Democrats are really marxist socialists. I think that the rifle was legally purchased.  I bet if they made laws against liberal gun ownership none of these things would happen.  Period.  Did you know that the liberal mind and the criminal mind function similarly.     

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1 hour ago, myhatinthering said:

You're not playing devils advocate with this instead,  moronic.  he's planned and discussed poisoning water supplies and more.  stop, you look retarded here

In asymmetrical warfare they are valid targets to cause unrest and disrupt population centers.  

Yeah I'm such a moron and a retard...sorry folks that families have down syndrome members.....

 i noticed you didn't answer my question.

Go ahead ill wait.... one mans terrorist is anothers freedom fighter...so again....

 

Why is this guy a terrorist and not a patriot in this scenario?

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1 hour ago, USRifle30Cal said:

Wait........  ! Let me play devils advocate....

Why is he a nutjob and not a patriot?

In this thread your choice of label for him is funny to say the least... you all talk cw2.0 and this guy is a crack pot????

Maybe he would have been the catalyst to jump start the retaking of pur gov from the liberal socialist agenda...

 

So as to my earlier point the fantasy of an armed uprising upon confiscation orders is just that....fantasy....

I don't think it is a fantasy...    I fear that the armed segment of the American population will eventually be pushed too far by those relentless busybodies.   The problem is that they would need to go too far, and even though they have turned up the heat on that poor frog already, they do it incrementally.   And making the police more militarized and brainwashing them and our children doesn't help.   Perhaps an EMP with 90% of the population lost would be a more likely scenario?   I will give you that it is hard to believe that it could happen when you are  living in the Armpit of the Nation and its largely neutered subjects.  

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Interesting article but a lot of fantasy.  If the gubment wants to go after guns they won’t use door kickers.  They’ll bring semi’s under NFA and then tax ammo or even bullets. They regulate and tax it to death.  Make an example of anyone unlucky enough to be caught like NJ does.  NFA and NY/NJ laws provide the blueprint for de facto confiscation.  

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16 hours ago, USRifle30Cal said:

" The battle being fought against the 2A is like the war against big tobacco "

He is right - 

They death of the 2A will not come in confiscations, door kickers etc. it will come by the death of generational warfare that the others are winning and soon the youth will have nothing more to do with guns AND freedom.

Agree 100%.  This is why the gun side needs to do more to say there are no harmful effects to guns.

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7 minutes ago, WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot said:

Interesting article but a lot of fantasy.  If the gubment wants to go after guns they won’t use door kickers.  They’ll bring semi’s under NFA and then tax ammo or even bullets. They regulate and tax it to death.  Make an example of anyone unlucky enough to be caught like NJ does.  NFA and NY/NJ laws provide the blueprint for de facto confiscation.  

I will agree that that is how they would go about it... but you just need to look at how ineffective the SAFE ACT is.  From what I understand, the vast majority of people did not bother registering. 

Then you have states that already said they are not going to enforce national gun control.

And quite frankly, do Liberals even give a crap about anything west of the Atlantic/Eastern coastal states and anything west of Colorado?  

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6 hours ago, Maksim said:

And quite frankly, do Liberals even give a crap about anything west of the Atlantic/Eastern coastal states and anything west of Colorado?  

Sure they do.  California, Oregon, Washington.

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19 hours ago, myhatinthering said:

what is troubling with the media and pd in these matters is the 'trophy display' of firearms and ammo.  It's pathetic and no different than using the 9yrold pic of a criminal to solicit a biased response vs the thug image of a murderer.

 

also, 1k rounds is hardly alot of ammo.  Hell, my kids and I go through 1k in 22lr alone when we go on a boys shoot day:)

Yeah, heard this morning how he had a "stockpile of guns and massive amounts of ammo", then they said "15 guns and 1000 rounds of ammo.

Typical stupidity and exaggeration. Hell, I have more then 15 handguns, forget rifles and if 1000 rounds of ammo is considered "massive", I think most of us would be worried about a raid.

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18 hours ago, USRifle30Cal said:

Wait........  ! Let me play devils advocate....

Why is he a nutjob and not a patriot?

In this thread your choice of label for him is funny to say the least... you all talk cw2.0 and this guy is a crack pot????

Maybe he would have been the catalyst to jump start the retaking of pur gov from the liberal socialist agenda...

 

So as to my earlier point the fantasy of an armed uprising upon confiscation orders is just that....fantasy....

You realize he's a "white supremacist" who wanted to establish a "white homeland"?

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