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Ammo increase in price

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9 minutes ago, Smith said:

Yeap! It definitely doesn’t seem like demand and supply issue. We claim that we are the country who is capable of fighting two wars at a same time compare to that this is tiny thing. This is just create artificial panic in people to sway them. F..king 9mm steel casing ammo is $40 for 50 rds. That is height...on this side the guy is announcing relief package and other side price of everything goes 3-4-5 times. Simple thing like 2x4 studs are $6-7 just before six month it was $2.

No it is a supply and demand thing. Due to covid, things are moving in fits and starts. 

Copper and lead are sourced from China. Lots of powder comes from Australia. Primers come from the US and Europe and require lots of manual labor compared to other components. 

On top of that the ammunition market in the US is typically about 11 billion rounds a year and rim fire is between 20-30% of that. 

A big order for the military is 2 billion rounds 

If our 5 million new owners just want to buy 200 rounds that's a billion right there. 

If every gun owner decides they need a case now, that's a demand of 105 billion rounds.  

The whole planet can't produce that in short order. Or not on short order. Even at full capacity. 

There's nothing artificial about this, and it is demand well above the small arms ammunition demand of fighting a couple of wars. 

 

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2 hours ago, raz-0 said:

No it is a supply and demand thing. Due to covid, things are moving in fits and starts. 

Copper and lead are sourced from China. Lots of powder comes from Australia. Primers come from the US and Europe and require lots of manual labor compared to other components. 

On top of that the ammunition market in the US is typically about 11 billion rounds a year and rim fire is between 20-30% of that. 

A big order for the military is 2 billion rounds 

If our 5 million new owners just want to buy 200 rounds that's a billion right there. 

If every gun owner decides they need a case now, that's a demand of 105 billion rounds.  

The whole planet can't produce that in short order. Or not on short order. Even at full capacity. 

There's nothing artificial about this, and it is demand well above the small arms ammunition demand of fighting a couple of wars. 

 

As you said typical yearly consumption in US is 11 b. Most of those new gun owners are not frequent flyer to range like you and me type people. Adding 1b would be one time. Here we are talking about factories with fully automated machine to produce the round not manual process. Adding a billion is nothing. China’s copper/lead Production had very little impact if at all. You could check those number, America importing them on other hand is different story. Some of these manufactures are not even in US and they are European and Russian. They are supplying steady. Adding 5m guns doesn’t collapse the market so badly. Just wait until election is over and watch how this crisis disappears. Plus it will be interesting to see the profit of these ammo company this year, If it is public companies. 

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2 hours ago, Smith said:

As you said typical yearly consumption in US is 11 b. Most of those new gun owners are not frequent flyer to range like you and me type people. Adding 1b would be one time. Here we are talking about factories with fully automated machine to produce the round not manual process. Adding a billion is nothing. China’s copper/lead Production had very little impact if at all. You could check those number, America importing them on other hand is different story. Some of these manufactures are not even in US and they are European and Russian. They are supplying steady. Adding 5m guns doesn’t collapse the market so badly. Just wait until election is over and watch how this crisis disappears. Plus it will be interesting to see the profit of these ammo company this year, If it is public companies. 

Booking primers is not all automated machines. Feeding the machines is not all automated machines. Shipping of all this stuff is also not just automated machines. China's delivery of copper ribbon and lead wire HAS had an impact. Manufacturers have said as much and have had idled machines waiting on one or the other. On top of that the machines don't just have a knob that can turn capacity up to infinity. They have service intervals, maintenance, and only so many hours in a day even when running full out. 

Also, don't confuse spot market price on base metals with supply of bulk semi finished goods. We are also going to get a nice kick in the pants on shipping as covid has had container shop crews trapped for months. So we are either going to get a strike or them actually getting the leave they have coming in one big chunk. 

Most manufacturers are supplying ongoing output. It is not steady and it is no where near demand even if they are managing something close to a regular schedule. We have seen it creep from daily shipments to weekly, to multiple weeks. 

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6 hours ago, raz-0 said:

Booking primers is not all automated machines. Feeding the machines is not all automated machines. Shipping of all this stuff is also not just automated machines. China's delivery of copper ribbon and lead wire HAS had an impact. Manufacturers have said as much and have had idled machines waiting on one or the other. On top of that the machines don't just have a knob that can turn capacity up to infinity. They have service intervals, maintenance, and only so many hours in a day even when running full out. 

Also, don't confuse spot market price on base metals with supply of bulk semi finished goods. We are also going to get a nice kick in the pants on shipping as covid has had container shop crews trapped for months. So we are either going to get a strike or them actually getting the leave they have coming in one big chunk. 

Most manufacturers are supplying ongoing output. It is not steady and it is no where near demand even if they are managing something close to a regular schedule. We have seen it creep from daily shipments to weekly, to multiple weeks. 

:D One want to believe one can, I am working in industry long enough... and if what you are saying is right none of these factory deserve to exists. Once more watch how this crisis disappear post election...

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40 minutes ago, 45Doll said:

Don't worry. Even at .70/round it's already out of stock.

Ridiculous prices!!! Trump announce the relief package and all of sudden every single item starting from food, home improvement, pleasure goes triple and quadruple in price. Simple things like stud 2x4 is almost $7. Not sure who is pupating the market.

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On 9/12/2020 at 11:32 PM, Smith said:

:D One want to believe one can, I am working in industry long enough... and if what you are saying is right none of these factory deserve to exists. Once more watch how this crisis disappear post election...

Seeing as we have had less severe market forces create shortages that have gone on for near two years, I can say this won't be back to normal post election, much less near the record low prices (accounting for inflation) we were starting to see on certain ammo prior to this mess. 

1 hour ago, Smith said:

Ridiculous prices!!! Trump announce the relief package and all of sudden every single item starting from food, home improvement, pleasure goes triple and quadruple in price. Simple things like stud 2x4 is almost $7. Not sure who is pupating the market.

the prices were going up well before that. You really have no idea what is going on do you?

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18 minutes ago, raz-0 said:

Seeing as we have had less severe market forces create shortages that have gone on for near two years, I can say this won't be back to normal post election, much less near the record low prices (accounting for inflation) we were starting to see on certain ammo prior to this mess. 

the prices were going up well before that. You really have no idea what is going on do you?

My friend, not much of argument type of guy. We will see...I have been working across multiple industry and have seen few people/syndicate  ridding the market. Not being biased or prejudice Toward any political party or race but have seen in past and consistently seeing it also. 

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On 8/29/2020 at 11:05 PM, Cheflife15 said:

Isn't there a chickie and Pete's over there. Love crab fries!

As a Baltimoron, I don't get the fascination with their crab fries. They are crinkle cut fries with Old Bay. Hell, I have put Old Bay on German Chocolate Cake. On a serious note, try Old Bay on grilled chicken and corn on the cob. Seriously.

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8 minutes ago, Squaregrouper said:

As a Baltimoron, I don't get the fascination with their crab fries. They are crinkle cut fries with Old Bay. Hell, I have put Old Bay on German Chocolate Cake. On a serious note, try Old Bay on grilled chicken and corn on the cob. Seriously.

Honestly i like the old bay sweet potato fries because it has that sweet dipping sauce and im a fat kid at heart. 

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4 minutes ago, Cheflife15 said:

Honestly i like the old bay sweet potato fries because it has that sweet dipping sauce and im a fat kid at heart. 

 You need to get some chicken thighs, coat them with Old Bay and grill them. Steam your corn, coat with butter and slap on the Old Bay. Someone told me you can use it on shrimp too, but I'm not buying that one. (I'm a fat kid at heart and my belly)

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On 9/14/2020 at 11:09 AM, 45Doll said:

Don't worry. Even at .70/round it's already out of stock.

I saw a box of 50 rounds of .380 ball....380 ball....delivered to my.local ffl for ....  101.38

 

People asked me once...Nick...why do you keep buying all these reloading components and gear....they used to laugh. 

9mm, 38 45...pick your flavor...is so cheap..ha !..waste of time to even think of reloading it...

How many buckets of lead do you have?

Molds?  This guys nuts....

 

 

 

Yeah, whose laughing now.

*learn* and let this be a lesson....

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1 hour ago, USRifle30Cal said:

I saw a box of 50 rounds of .380 ball....380 ball....delivered to my.local ffl for ....  101.38

 

People asked me once...Nick...why do you keep buying all these reloading components and gear....they used to laugh. 

9mm, 38 45...pick your flavor...is so cheap..ha !..waste of time to even think of reloading it...

How many buckets of lead do you have?

Molds?  This guys nuts....

 

 

 

Yeah, whose laughing now.

*learn* and let this be a lesson....

The owner at my local gun shop told me that 380 is by far the hardest common use ammo to find in the US. I don't shoot 380 much but  am glad I have a set of dies, pile of brass, and 500 bullets. Never reloaded 380 in my life but I am glad I have this stuff just in case.

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1 hour ago, USRifle30Cal said:

People asked me once...Nick...why do you keep buying all these reloading components and gear....they used to laugh. 

9mm, 38 45...pick your flavor...is so cheap..ha !..waste of time to even think of reloading it...

 

Agree.  I buy powder, primers, and bullets even when factory ammo is cheap/available.

My daughter and I shot a Steel Challenge match in February right before everything closed down due to COVID, and some of the young guys were teasing me because I was picking up brass.  They said "9mm is so cheap now you're only saving 3 cents per round.  It's not worth the time to reload".

Guarantee that they're not laughing right now.

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1 hour ago, JC_68Westy said:

The owner at my local gun shop told me that 380 is by far the hardest common use ammo to find in the US. I don't shoot 380 much but  am glad I have a set of dies, pile of brass, and 500 bullets. Never reloaded 380 in my life but I am glad I have this stuff just in case.

I find that so hard to believe - and it does beg the question, prolly for another thread - but, in certain circumstances would you trust 380ACP with self defense shooting when other calibers are available.

Same could be said for 32acp....

Ooooooooooooooo, a new *GUN* thread - novel concept - here we go :)

 

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53 minutes ago, USRifle30Cal said:

I find that so hard to believe - and it does beg the question, prolly for another thread - but, in certain circumstances would you trust 380ACP with self defense shooting when other calibers are available.

Same could be said for 32acp....

Ooooooooooooooo, a new *GUN* thread - novel concept - here we go :)

 

OH how we forget. Last big run on 9mm during a panic we hit $70 a box for.380 despite overall prices not getting nearly this bad. The machines making.380 can make 9 with very little down time, so it's the first one to go out of production completely. It'll be the last to come back of it goes like last time. 

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On 9/13/2020 at 9:36 AM, 45Doll said:

Or gets exponentially worse.

I agree, it's going to get worse and I never agree with buying at inflated levels but the dems are not going quietly and prices are going to move north for the foreseeable future imho

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8 minutes ago, Smith said:

I just started with 10mm guns.  What is “normal” price per round for 10mm?

In April I paid 33.3/cpr for Blazer Brass 10mm 180 gr. In February it was 29.3.

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28 minutes ago, Smith said:

I just started with 10mm guns.  What is “normal” price per round for 10mm?

I usually buy from Underwood and Doubletap.  A lot of the major manufacturer 10mm is really weak 40 S&W power ammo. The only other brand I have liked is Magtech. It is full powered as well. The price for the full power Underwood range ammo is .50/rd. and  Doubletap is 1.00/rd. 

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1 hour ago, Smith said:

I just started with 10mm guns.  What is “normal” price per round for 10mm?

Real 10mm, pre-panic, was a solid $.60-.75 cents per round. Most manufacturers selling "10mm" are selling .40 S&W in a 10mm case. We see the same with .357 Sig- it is mostly 9mm +P velocity.

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Blazer Brass 10mm, 180 gr. , 1200 fps, 575 ft/lbs  33.3/cpr (pre virus)

Underwood 10mm Range Supply, 180 gr. 1250 fps, 625 ft/lbs  currently listed (OOS) at 50/cpr. I paid less pre virus, just can't say exactly.

Underwood 10mm 140 gr. controlled fracture HP, 1500 fps. 700 ft/lbs, 1.95/round.

Speed and power costs money. How fast do you want to go? Just get out your checkbook.

I found the Blazer Brass to be excellent at that price point. At least for practice. I consider 1200 fps the performance floor for 10mm. Ran in a Glock 40 and a 10mm Banshee very well.

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My FFL just sold me 1200 rounds of 55grn 5.56 for $450.  I realize it's not a great price when compared to the past, but for the current situation I think it's a steal!  I don't usually keep much 5.56 on hand since I don't shoot it much but I think with the election and fallout after November it will only get more expensive.  Yes I know, late to the party but at $.38 a round with today's craziness I figured it was worth it.

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