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6 minutes ago, mustang69 said:

*AND THEN* - Biden realizes he won't get "gun control" through the legislature so he decides to tax ammo at 40% and eliminate online sales - all through EO

How do you pass an ammo tax if you cant pass "gun control".

It would be nice to see the SCOTUS drop all taxes and fees associated with firearms. 

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After the panic of late 2012-early 2013, I stocked up, and bought lots of ammo whenever the prices were good.  Still, I would not sell any, as the supply and price situations don't look like they will get better any time in the foreseeable future.  While I have a lot, it's not an infinite supply, and I'm planning on making it last for at least the next several years.

BTW, Rob Ski at AKOU 47/74 astutely points out that having a lot of ammo on hand is for shooting at the range, not for SHTF.  He says that if you get in that many gunfights, sooner or later you will encounter someone better than you.  Sage advice. 

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1 hour ago, Old Glock guy said:

After the panic of late 2012-early 2013, I stocked up, and bought lots of ammo whenever the prices were good.  Still, I would not sell any, as the supply and price situations don't look like they will get better any time in the foreseeable future.  While I have a lot, it's not an infinite supply, and I'm planning on making it last for at least the next several years.

BTW, Rob Ski at AKOU 47/74 astutely points out that having a lot of ammo on hand is for shooting at the range, not for SHTF.  He says that if you get in that many gunfights, sooner or later you will encounter someone better than you.  Sage advice. 

Rob lives in a vacuum.  While I agree, if you are in gunfights then you are most likely already dead, the fact that so many live in urban areas and the 'flight' will be bring encounters where more is better.  That said, hunker down during the day, move at night is the smart option

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4 hours ago, njJoniGuy said:

What a way to fund a retirement!

Selling $.05 / round .22 for $.20 a pop !!

At $0.15 profit per round, I'm about 50 million rounds short of having enough .22 ammo to fund my retirement.

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17 hours ago, mustang69 said:

*AND THEN* - Biden realizes he won't get "gun control" through the legislature so he decides to tax ammo at 40% and eliminate online sales - all through EO

Only congress has the statutory power to levy taxes........

17 hours ago, JackDaWack said:

How do you pass an ammo tax if you cant pass "gun control".

It would be nice to see the SCOTUS drop all taxes and fees associated with firearms. 

^^^^^ this

16 hours ago, Old Glock guy said:

After the panic of late 2012-early 2013, I stocked up, and bought lots of ammo whenever the prices were good.  Still, I would not sell any, as the supply and price situations don't look like they will get better any time in the foreseeable future.  While I have a lot, it's not an infinite supply, and I'm planning on making it last for at least the next several years.

BTW, Rob Ski at AKOU 47/74 astutely points out that having a lot of ammo on hand is for shooting at the range, not for SHTF.  He says that if you get in that many gunfights, sooner or later you will encounter someone better than you.  Sage advice. 

The depth of ammo hoarding, is not for fighting per se, it is the range....

 

Depending on the situation you *may* need that depth of ammo to support others in your group.

 

 

14 hours ago, RUTGERS95 said:

Rob lives in a vacuum.  While I agree, if you are in gunfights then you are most likely already dead, the fact that so many live in urban areas and the 'flight' will be bring encounters where more is better.  That said, hunker down during the day, move at night is the smart option

If you are moving, you are not moving thousands upon thousands of rounds of ammo....  :)

 

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I've not seen this discussed yet, but what about foreign ammo manufacturers?  I can see a domestic supply drying up, but the US is basically the customer of the entire world, even Russia.  We have Israel, Serbia, Germany, Philippines Mexico, Brazil, Canada, Czech Republic, etc as suppliers. 

What's going on with international ammo supply, is the US soaking up 100% of that as well?

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1 hour ago, USRifle30Cal said:

Only congress has the statutory power to levy taxes........

^^^^^ this

The depth of ammo hoarding, is not for fighting per se, it is the range....

 

Depending on the situation you *may* need that depth of ammo to support others in your group.

 

 

If you are moving, you are not moving thousands upon thousands of rounds of ammo....  :)

 

depends to be honest.  are you moving on foot or via truck, are you moving with just your family or did you pre-arrange the shtf with a group?

so many variables here

I have a group and we're bugging out in vehicles and will be taking thousands of rounds amongst other things

that said, I don't necessarily disagree with your premise it's not just an absolute

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19 hours ago, JackDaWack said:

How do you pass an ammo tax if you cant pass "gun control".

It would be nice to see the SCOTUS drop all taxes and fees associated with firearms. 

Answer: get your liberal judges to call it a penalty, not a tax.

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6 hours ago, Scorpio64 said:

I've not seen this discussed yet, but what about foreign ammo manufacturers?  I can see a domestic supply drying up, but the US is basically the customer of the entire world, even Russia.  We have Israel, Serbia, Germany, Philippines Mexico, Brazil, Canada, Czech Republic, etc as suppliers. 

What's going on with international ammo supply, is the US soaking up 100% of that as well?

Exactly my point, I was talking about that point a little while ago and face fierce argument that it is demand supply issue. I believe 5M new guns wouldn’t dry out entire world... that concept is just, let’s say, not digestible! Somewhere in supply chain it is blocked to create panic raise price make huge profit ...however we as American are known to live in fantasy world created by our media and disjointed from reality...

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4 hours ago, RUTGERS95 said:

depends to be honest.  are you moving on foot or via truck, are you moving with just your family or did you pre-arrange the shtf with a group?

so many variables here

I have a group and we're bugging out in vehicles and will be taking thousands of rounds amongst other things

that said, I don't necessarily disagree with your premise it's not just an absolute

Nothing is absolute - at all - it is perspective and what and how you plan to execute.

 

Depending on what is happening I would be bugging 'in' - if you are out, and have a rally point - it would be good to pre-position etc.  As I am sure you are aware etc.

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1 hour ago, Smith said:

Exactly my point, I was talking about that point a little while ago and face fierce argument that it is demand supply issue. I believe 5M new guns wouldn’t dry out entire world... that concept is just, let’s say, not digestible! Somewhere in supply chain it is blocked to create panic raise price make huge profit to fund election...however we as American are known to live in fantasy world created by our media and disjointed from reality...

Lol

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1 hour ago, Smith said:

Exactly my point, I was talking about that point a little while ago and face fierce argument that it is demand supply issue. I believe 5M new guns wouldn’t dry out entire world... that concept is just, let’s say, not digestible! Somewhere in supply chain it is blocked to create panic raise price make huge profit to fund election...however we as American are known to live in fantasy world created by our media and disjointed from reality...

You are still wrong. We can, and have repeatedly dried up the whole world because the US domestic ammunition market dwarfs everything else in the ammo world. Your understanding of the market is shit, and your need to imagine a conspiracy doesn't help. 

The fact that 5 million people did it is not digestible because they didn't.  That is not what is going on. This does not make it a conspiracy. 

Last "panic" that impacted global supply was not actually the 2012 panic but the previous one under Bush that had us already buying and then added a HUGE purchase from the military and homeland security To the tune of nearly 3 billion rounds in ~2 years. At that time the us ammo market was ~11 billion rounds, about 7 billion of that produced domestically, and about 1.8 billion of that being rimfire ammo. To come in with an order of 9 billion rounds of mostly .223 and 9mm put a hurting on availability of those rounds and related components. 

Today you have us domestic supply for ammunition that sits at about 8.1 billion rounds. Since I can't find numbers for now, lets assume it too increased capacity by about 14% and moved from 4 billion to about 4.5 billion. That gives us an annual capacity of about 12.6 billion rounds of ammo.

So some quick math. WE had roughly 100 million gun owners in the US. We added about 7 million new ones. That is 107 million gun owners roughly. 

Now lets say they all decide they want one 50 round box of ammo. That's 5.35 billion rounds of ammo there. Lets say they want 150 rounds each. That's now 16+ billion rounds of ammunition. Significantly greater than the global supply. 

If it was just the 7 million new owners buying, they would need to buy just 1800 rounds a piece to completely eat up the existing manufacturing capacity. This unlikely to be the case, but it is also not unimaginable when you see that lesson one second one of being a new gun owner for them is that this shit runs out and you need to supply your own inventory in an emergency. 

But I can guarantee you 100% that new gun owners would be averaging above 3 boxes a piece if they could get it readily.  I also guarantee you that plenty of existing owners who never bought in bulk are now shopping in the 500-2000 round size purchase. 

This shitstorm is actually less bad than it could be, and that was because when this hit, we had an ammo GLUT and some of the lowest prices in recent history. If not for that ammo prices would be way higher and the shortages would be worse. But effectively we have 100% capacity going right now PLUS all the shit that was sitting in warehouses.

If you are a a member of the government doing game plans on possibly confronting America's gun owners, there's a big implication in the fact that these numbers aren't much, much worse: 

These numbers tell us that a huge chunk of this ammo we've been buying over the years isn't getting shot. It's getting stockpiled. If everyone was out, the customer who buy by the 1000 instead of but they 100 would be putting a lot more pressure on the market. There's a shit ton of us not participating in this at all right now and it is still this bad.  

There's no conspiracy. There was a pandemic which made people fear their government and fear what will happen if a nation full of people suddenly winds up poor and hungry. Then you added violent riots. Then you add in the usual presidential election panic buying. 

You ARE seeing weird market forces though. One of the things magnifying this greatly are small shops who want to service their customer base are buying inventory at retail prices and reselling them with normal business markups. SO you are effectively seeing a retail supply chain version of compound interest going on. Part of what is fueling this is you have also seen some large manufacturers going into direct sales. So yes, you are seeing a bit of a breakdown in the distributor system that previously covered at or near 100% of the market. But it's failure is not some pre-planned, engineered thing to make a buck. It's a reaction to it being insufficient, and that reaction is not an efficient reaction.  

 

 

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7 minutes ago, raz-0 said:

You are still wrong. We can, and have repeatedly dried up the whole world because the US domestic ammunition market dwarfs everything else in the ammo world. Your understanding of the market is shit, and your need to imagine a conspiracy doesn't help. 

The fact that 5 million people did it is not digestible because they didn't.  That is not what is going on. This does not make it a conspiracy. 

Last "panic" that impacted global supply was not actually the 2012 panic but the previous one under Bush that had us already buying and then added a HUGE purchase from the military and homeland security To the tune of nearly 3 billion rounds in ~2 years. At that time the us ammo market was ~11 billion rounds, about 7 billion of that produced domestically, and about 1.8 billion of that being rimfire ammo. To come in with an order of 9 billion rounds of mostly .223 and 9mm put a hurting on availability of those rounds and related components. 

Today you have us domestic supply for ammunition that sits at about 8.1 billion rounds. Since I can't find numbers for now, lets assume it too increased capacity by about 14% and moved from 4 billion to about 4.5 billion. That gives us an annual capacity of about 12.6 billion rounds of ammo.

So some quick math. WE had roughly 100 million gun owners in the US. We added about 7 million new ones. That is 107 million gun owners roughly. 

Now lets say they all decide they want one 50 round box of ammo. That's 5.35 billion rounds of ammo there. Lets say they want 150 rounds each. That's now 16+ billion rounds of ammunition. Significantly greater than the global supply. 

If it was just the 7 million new owners buying, they would need to buy just 1800 rounds a piece to completely eat up the existing manufacturing capacity. This unlikely to be the case, but it is also not unimaginable when you see that lesson one second one of being a new gun owner for them is that this shit runs out and you need to supply your own inventory in an emergency. 

But I can guarantee you 100% that new gun owners would be averaging above 3 boxes a piece if they could get it readily.  I also guarantee you that plenty of existing owners who never bought in bulk are now shopping in the 500-2000 round size purchase. 

This shitstorm is actually less bad than it could be, and that was because when this hit, we had an ammo GLUT and some of the lowest prices in recent history. If not for that ammo prices would be way higher and the shortages would be worse. But effectively we have 100% capacity going right now PLUS all the shit that was sitting in warehouses.

If you are a a member of the government doing game plans on possibly confronting America's gun owners, there's a big implication in the fact that these numbers aren't much, much worse: 

These numbers tell us that a huge chunk of this ammo we've been buying over the years isn't getting shot. It's getting stockpiled. If everyone was out, the customer who buy by the 1000 instead of but they 100 would be putting a lot more pressure on the market. There's a shit ton of us not participating in this at all right now and it is still this bad.  

There's no conspiracy. There was a pandemic which made people fear their government and fear what will happen if a nation full of people suddenly winds up poor and hungry. Then you added violent riots. Then you add in the usual presidential election panic buying. 

You ARE seeing weird market forces though. One of the things magnifying this greatly are small shops who want to service their customer base are buying inventory at retail prices and reselling them with normal business markups. SO you are effectively seeing a retail supply chain version of compound interest going on. Part of what is fueling this is you have also seen some large manufacturers going into direct sales. So yes, you are seeing a bit of a breakdown in the distributor system that previously covered at or near 100% of the market. But it's failure is not some pre-planned, engineered thing to make a buck. It's a reaction to it being insufficient, and that reaction is not an efficient reaction.  

 

 

We will check the pulse in another couple of months...

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30 minutes ago, Smith said:

We will check the pulse in another couple of months...

No need. The pulse will be: Shortage. Even if the demand dried up today, all the distributors and retailers have placed orders for high volumes. They could get fucked on that, but I doubt it significantly.

If it were some conspiracy of easy market manipulation as you believe, the answer will be: shortage. Because why not print money if you can. 

Based on past performance, once the buying starts to decline rather than increase, we will still have at least a year of shit supply and prices to deal with. 

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7 hours ago, USRifle30Cal said:

Nothing is absolute - at all - it is perspective and what and how you plan to execute.

 

Depending on what is happening I would be bugging 'in' - if you are out, and have a rally point - it would be good to pre-position etc.  As I am sure you are aware etc.

amen brother! 

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On 12/3/2020 at 3:32 PM, RUTGERS95 said:

Rob lives in a vacuum.  While I agree, if you are in gunfights then you are most likely already dead, the fact that so many live in urban areas and the 'flight' will be bring encounters where more is better.  That said, hunker down during the day, move at night is the smart option

Three points about this topic. 

A) I'm not looking to just arm myself. If possible I'd like that to look more like a small militia, and i don't expect most people in my inner circle to have much. 

B) if I'm ever in a firefight, conserving ammunition is always necessary, but I dont want to be counting bullets KNOWING I will run out. 

C) there is always the long term aspect of ammo. If civilization collapsed do you have enough for a lifetime?

If you live in an urban setting, just consider yourself dead unless you aren't out before the SHTF. Moving during any point after all hell brakes loose will be detrimental, and you will be on foot. 

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I am really torn!  I have ammo I could sell but who knows what the future will bring? I keep asking myself questions. Life keeps me busy and I don't shoot much now.

I have more than I'll ever use but what if SHTF?  Great for bartering!

I don't need the money so that holds me back.

What it ammo doubles or triples in the next year or so?  I will kick myself for selling low!

I reload so I really don't need all that factory stuff. except for the .22s.....I can't seem to find dies for those!:lol:

I know exactly what will happen....I will do nothing and when I die, my Son will take it to the closest LGS and let it all go for a couple hundred bucks! Along with my guns!:mad: Little bastard!

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13 minutes ago, JohnnyB said:

...I know exactly what will happen....I will do nothing and when I die, my Son will take it to the closest LGS and let it all go for a couple hundred bucks! Along with my guns!:mad: Little bastard!

Not if we will our guns to EACH OTHER!

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A quick 4 benjamins....

A box of 357, 3 boxes of 38, two 9mm 1 380 and a brick of 500 .22...

And more on the shelf....

 

Bandos of 06 in enblocs...06 AP.  12g buckshot 12g slugs and 2400 rounds of .22 just sitting there...

 

Craziness....

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3 hours ago, JohnnyB said:

I am really torn!  I have ammo I could sell but who knows what the future will bring? I keep asking myself questions. Life keeps me busy and I don't shoot much now.

I have more than I'll ever use but what if SHTF?  Great for bartering!

I don't need the money so that holds me back.

What it ammo doubles or triples in the next year or so?  I will kick myself for selling low!

I reload so I really don't need all that factory stuff. except for the .22s.....I can't seem to find dies for those!:lol:

I know exactly what will happen....I will do nothing and when I die, my Son will take it to the closest LGS and let it all go for a couple hundred bucks! Along with my guns!:mad: Little bastard!

You should sell me 1 case of .45acp, 1 case of 9mm, 1 case of 5.56x45mm NATO and see how it feels. Worst case, you don’t sell anymore. ;-)

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This whole ammo shortage has been quite eye-opening for me... first time I'm experiencing a market like this!  I don't have the warehouse-type supplies that some of you claim to have, but I could shoot at my regular pace for 1-2+ years just with what I have in-stock, so I'm guessing I'm better stocked than some.   

That said, even though I could go awhile just on what I have, I decided a few months ago to bite the bullet (pun intended!) and to continue to buy ammo even during this horrible situation - just some bricks now and again as I find them, and probably right here on NJGF. Even though pricing is higher now, it's a fluctuating market - it is what it is! Besides, my attitude is: this is no different than food prepping - it's poor strategy to allow your supply of any "necessity" to draw down over time to bare minimum levels. There should always be some modest replenishment going on (unless you literally have a lifetime supply, which most of us do not).  

The only caliber I have an "issue" with is .17hmr, and that's only because it wasn't in my usual repertoire (I just happen to have a new .17hmr barrel on backorder for my CZ switch barrel light rifle). So, I'll be paying inflated prices for that from the get-go. But, even that's not the end of the world. I don't have to use that barrel... I can just focus on using the same gun with the .22lr barrel. So, it's more of a luxury than an urgent need. That said, I'll still be scrounging around for that new ammo, for sure.

I would be remiss not to thank - @Displaced Texan and @High Exposure - who encouraged me a few years back to start my own mini-"ammo fort" (LOL!) while pricing was favorable and to buy "by the case" for best price-per-round. Wise advice that I'm grateful I took!

Who I feel bad for right now are the brand-new gun owners coming into this market. After all, that's when you should be taking a training class and doing a lot of practice to build those initial skills - and to walk smack into a critical ammo shortage is a really unfortunate thing for those folks. :(

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23 minutes ago, Mrs. Peel said:

This whole ammo shortage has been quite eye-opening for me... first time I'm experiencing a market like this!  I don't have the warehouse-type supplies that some of you claim to have, but I could shoot at my regular pace for 1-2+ years just with what I have in-stock, so I'm guessing I'm better stocked than some.   

That said, even though I could go awhile just on what I have, I decided a few months ago to bite the bullet (pun intended!) and to continue to buy ammo even during this horrible situation - just some bricks now and again as I find them, and probably right here on NJGF. Even though pricing is higher now, it's a fluctuating market - it is what it is! Besides, my attitude is: this is no different than food prepping - it's poor strategy to allow your supply of any "necessity" to draw down over time to bare minimum levels. There should always be some modest replenishment going on (unless you literally have a lifetime supply, which most of us do not).  

The only caliber I have an "issue" with is .17hmr, and that's only because it wasn't in my usual repertoire (I just happen to have a new .17hmr barrel on backorder for my CZ switch barrel light rifle). So, I'll be paying inflated prices for that from the get-go. But, even that's not the end of the world. I don't have to use that barrel... I can just focus on using the same gun with the .22lr barrel. So, it's more of a luxury than an urgent need. That said, I'll still be scrounging around for that new ammo, for sure.

I would be remiss not to thank - @Displaced Texan and @High Exposure - who encouraged me a few years back to start my own mini-"ammo fort" (LOL!) while pricing was favorable and to buy "by the case" for best price-per-round. Wise advice that I'm grateful I took!

Who I feel bad for right now are the brand-new gun owners coming into this market. After all, that's when you should be taking a training class and doing a lot of practice to build those initial skills - and to walk smack into a critical ammo shortage is a really unfortunate thing for those folks. :(

I feel like i got in right before it got really bad. I was buying ammo at 13 a box. Looking at my notebooks with all my logged rounds through my pistols ive shot off about 9k rounds. 

Trying to stay stocked is tough now. I shoot weekly and try to stay on top of target sports for when things come in stock. 

Bad time for a new hobby! 

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1 minute ago, Mrs. Peel said:

And yet, on an up-note, people like you coming into the shooting sports is just what the 2A needed. :)

Yeah i got two more on board, 1 just got his permit and 1 is waiting. Ive been taking them to heritage guild even though I joined obrpc. In a few months ill be off probation and can bring guests ! 

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Someone 'complained' in a forsale thread..about he price of .22 lr

 

 

45 per 500..or so.

 

Yes that is LESS than the going rate..i sold two bricks at 85 a pop yesterday...  i PAID .05 a round....back years ago...do i feel bad ? 

 

Not one bit...the buyers are seasoned shooters...   who REFUSED to pay attention..

 

NEW shooters get a pass....and good prices 

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