Prep For Quarantine / Pandemic

[Sniper 6,372]

18 minutes ago, Kevin125 said:

The other factor related to the mortality rate is that this has no vaccine.  With a vaccine the rate would be much lower. Maybe comparable to typical flu outbreaks. 

Remember, even our seasonal flu vaccine is only 40% effective, and many who take it still get sick. And the flu vaccine has been developed and made for decades, and they still can't get it right. Look at the number of flu infections each year, even with the vaccine. So, I wouldn't put any large faith in a Covid vaccine.

[Sniper 6,372]

17 minutes ago, oldguysrule649 said:

Given Trump’s speech moments ago which includes a ban on all travel from Europe(excluding the UK), the level of anxiety will now ratchet  up to a new level. 

That's going to twist up a whole bunch of people's panties.

Problem is, it's too late... the virus is already here.

[Kevin125 4,772]

4 minutes ago, Sniper said:

That's going to twist up a whole bunch of people's panties.

Problem is, it's too late... the virus is already here.

It helps prevent new clusters that result from inbound travelers. Better than not doing it...but would have in hindsight, been better to have done it already.

Apparently, the NBA season has been cancelled.

(yawn)

9 minutes ago, Sniper said:

Remember, even our seasonal flu vaccine is only 40% effective, and many who take it still get sick. And the flu vaccine has been developed and made for decades, and they still can't get it right. Look at the number of flu infections each year, even with the vaccine. So, I wouldn't put any large faith in a Covid vaccine.

The getting it right part is matching the strains that will come out.  As I understand it, this year was a pretty good match for the 4 strains being seen.  Its not about how effective it is when it matches.  

[Sniper 6,372]

11 minutes ago, Kevin125 said:

 As I understand it, this year was a pretty good match for the 4 strains being seen.  Its not about how effective it is when it matches.  

...." February 26, 2020 10:01 am Chris Crawford – According to a Feb. 21 CDC Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report,(www.cdc.gov) the current influenza vaccine has been 45% effective overall against 2019-2020 seasonal influenza A and B viruses. "

Is that considered "pretty good"?

[Kevin125 4,772]

3 minutes ago, Sniper said:

...." February 26, 2020 10:01 am Chris Crawford – According to a Feb. 21 CDC Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report,(www.cdc.gov) the current influenza vaccine has been 45% effective overall against 2019-2020 seasonal influenza A and B viruses. "

Is that considered "pretty good"?

You would have to ask someone who is a professional in this field.  Seems average in my lay opinion.

[1LtCAP 4,262]

now the important question. are shooting competitions gonna still go on? I was gonna try to get into louu's 3guns this year.....

[M1152 713]

1 hour ago, Kevin125 said:

I still don’t get why TP is being cleaned out.

nor did I but heard this today.. In the meantime the NBA just pulled the plug of the remainder of their season and Tom Hanks and his wife have the virus..

 

 

[WP22 1,558]

<frantically googling TP recipes.>

[Sniper 6,372]

16 minutes ago, WP22 said:

<frantically googling TP recipes.>

Why?? Just go outside for nature's TP:

[Scorpio64 5,147]

 Well, if your gonna have to pay more for shit tickets, you may as well make it fun.

[CMJeepster 2,777]

10 hours ago, Kevin125 said:

Apparently, the NBA season has been cancelled.

 

The what?

[1LtCAP 4,262]

9 hours ago, WP22 said:

<frantically googling TP recipes.>

http://www.i-mockery.com/shorts/three-seashells/

[Malsua 1,422]

1 hour ago, CMJeepster said:

The what?

Isn't that the thing where a bunch of tall millionaires run around and play keep-away?  Saw it on a TV in an airport once.   I didn't still think it was a thing.

[45Doll 5,874]

Well the cruise industry is halting company by company. Including Princess.

@Sniper, is your trip inside this window?

Here's the company statement.

Edited March 12, 2020 by 45Doll
2nd link added.

[Displaced Texan 11,731]

I’m in the USVI at the moment...there was zero for screening at the airport. I’m interested to see what happens upon our return. I doubt anything, but one never knows...

[Sniper 6,372]

1 hour ago, 45Doll said:

Well the cruise industry is halting company by company. Including Princess.

@Sniper, is your trip inside this window?

Yep, we're inside that window... I'm pissed... I had a really nice Suite booked on the aft of the ship with a huge balcony...

This halt is really going to hit them in the pocketbook.

[Malsua 1,422]

11 hours ago, Scorpio64 said:

 Well, if your gonna have to pay more for shit tickets, you may as well make it fun.

Eh, who needs paper.

 

 

[Zeke 5,504]

8 minutes ago, Malsua said:

Eh, who needs paper.

 

 

Then you mush it in with your big toes 

[45Doll 5,874]

We need a Puke gif added to the rating selections.

[Sniper 6,372]

32 minutes ago, Malsua said:

Eh, who needs paper.

I think it's time to change your diet...

[Displaced Texan 11,731]

As you can see, I’m in full panic mode over the CoronaVirus. 
 

It’s bloody terrifying. 

[Old Glock guy 1,127]

Markets are tanking, schools are closing, public events being cancelled.  Is this mass hysteria, or is there more to the whole thing than I realize?

[Displaced Texan 11,731]

This thing is more of a threat than Coronavirus....a threat of knocking over my rum drink. 
 

Where’s the air fryer when I need it?!

[Mrs. Peel 7,157]

7 minutes ago, Old Glock guy said:

Markets are tanking, schools are closing, public events being cancelled.  Is this mass hysteria, or is there more to the whole thing than I realize?

No kidding! It's hard to know what's going on . Here's one clue though - that young healthcare worker James Cai at Hackensack hospital that was interviewed in recent days? On camera, he was talking like he was dying... I'm getting worse! It's the worst thing ever!!, etc. ... and the press was hanging on each bombastic word like it was his swan song... well, he's recovering now.  So, yeah, I think there's been some hype.

If you're 65+ and/or immuno-compromised, it's probably wise to avoid crowds, wash your hands more than usual, avoid touching your face, etc. Other than that, I'm still thinking there's a lot of overreaction. 

[45Doll 5,874]

11 minutes ago, Old Glock guy said:

Markets are tanking, schools are closing, public events being cancelled.  Is this mass hysteria, or is there more to the whole thing than I realize?

As long as Tom Hanks and his wife survived, there's no issue anywhere for anyone. 

Just ask the media.

[Malsua 1,422]

 

We're about 11 days behind Italy right now.   Still looks like an exaggeration, right?  It's just the flu bro.

-------

Chilling coronavirus warning from Aussies inside Italy

Allie Godfrey

Wednesday, 11 March 2020 9:52 pm

 

Empty streets in Rome Credit: Andrew Medichini/AP

 

Australian ex-pats in Italy say there’s no point coming home because it’s only a matter of time until Australia has a coronavirus crisis.

Italy is in lockdown as the number of infections grew by more than 30 per cent overnight.

More than 121,000 people have been infected worldwide and more than 4300 have died.

 

Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte has ordered all shops to be shuttered except supermarkets, food stores and chemists.

Companies must close all their departments that are not essential to production.

Milan is in lockdown Credit: Claudio Furlan/AP

7NEWS.com.au asked several Australians living in Italy whether they wanted the Australian government to organise flights back to Australia, as they did for ex-pats in Wuhan, China.

Most said flying home would be like going from the frying pan into the fire.

“Australia is probably not too far behind Italy so if anything I would prefer to stay here than to head home,” Jeanette Chan said.

More on 7NEWS.com.au

• ‘Don’t go to work if you are unwell’: Stern warning from NSW Premier
• ‘They sent me home to die’: Coronavirus infected man shares video message
• Coronavirus victims go from no symptoms to death in hours

The warning from Italy is clear - it’s only a matter of time.

Daniela Pizzatta said if Australia were virus free, she would have considered coming home.

“I think Australia is not far off having semi lockdown situations,” Pizzatta said.

In the video below Italy’s tourist attractions stand empty as coronavirus hits

 

The Trevi Fountain square is nearly empty as Italy remains under lockdown amid a coronavirus outbreak.

 

•  

The Trevi Fountain square is nearly empty as Italy remains under lockdown amid a coronavirus outbreak.

 

Jodie Kearney lives in Rome with her husband and four children.

She is no longer working because her employer, a private school, has closed.

Now her husband has been forced to close the business.

“We probably won’t have an income this month but plenty of bills,” she said.

“It’s a desperate and scary situation.”

Take it seriously

Andrea Pastorelli is an administrator of the Australians in Italy Facebook group.

In a post to his family and friends around the world, he warned other nations to take the coronavirus threat seriously.

“At the beginning of this, we didn’t take it seriously,” he wrote.

“Then we complained about the media overdoing it and creating hysteria.

Maria Teresa Baladini wears protective gear in the Italian parliament. Credit: Roberto Monaldo/AP

“Then we vowed to not be affected by it, that the economy needed to come first and we needed to keep living our normal lives.

“I was doing all of the above until this past weekend.

“That’s when it became clear that this thing spreads super easily, and kills more than we thought.

A man disinfects the doorway of a shop in Codogno Italy. Credit: Claudio Furlan/LaPresse/AP

“460 people dead in a few days, and no, it’s not only old people.

“There’s people in their 40s and 50s too.

“But most importantly, since when is a grandparent worth less to us?”

You have about two weeks

Christina Higgins is an American living Bergamo, Italy, the heart of the coronavirus crisis.

She says the world needs to act fast to reduce the spread of coronavirus.

“You are weeks away from where we are today in Italy,” she wrote.

Based on how the virus had spread in Italy, Higgin said other countries should immediately close schools and encourage people to stay home.

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“Push for the entire office to work at home today, cancel birthday parties, and other gatherings, stay home as much as you can,” she wrote.

Higgins says coronavirus hits hard and spreads fast.

Patients need ventilation in intensive care, for weeks.

Even the best health systems will buckle if the peak is not reduced.

Medical staff work in tents at Civil Hospitals of Brescia, Italy. Credit: Claudio Furlan/AP

“Today the ICUs in Lombardy are at capacity – more than capacity, they have begun to put ICU units in the hallways,” Higgins said.

“On Monday a doctor wrote in the paper that they have begun to have to decide who lives and who dies when the patients show up in the emergency room, like what is done in war.

“This will only get worse.”

Lockdown a ‘Hail Mary’

“When Prime Minister Conte announced last night that the entire country, 60 million people, would go on lockdown, the line that struck me most was ‘there is no more time’,” Higgins wrote.

“Because to be clear, this national lockdown is a hail mary.

“What he means is that if the numbers of contagion do not start to go down, the system, Italy, will collapse.”

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot 358]

Preppers be like...

 

[AVB-AMG 530]

@Malsua:

Thank you for your informative descriptive post with very sobering graphic images.  It is not very hard to know what is going on if one is proactively paying attention and seeking out by reading/watching a variety of international news sources reporting the facts in their regions and countries.  All of us U.S. citizens should be very concerned about this rapidly spreading pandemic and take all of the recommended safety precautions.  While the canceling of various large group events is unfortunate, it is prudent to be safe.

Over a week and a half ago, I said that from the day Donald Trump was elected, some of us stated how concerned we were(are), on how he and his administration would deal with a real crisis, not of his own making. Remarkably, we have survived 3 years without finding out….until now.  Prior to this, every serious problem facing the Trump administration, from trade wars to confrontation with North Korea and Iran, has been self-created. But the coronavirus is looking as if it might be the test we’ve been fearing.

Those who perpetuate the coronavirus (COVID-19) denial or dismissive of its lethality, is just the latest battle in a long-term war on truth in this country and the very idea that there exists an inconvenient objective reality. We should be able to trust that some matters, especially public health, are so important that they would transcend political party affiliation. Yet Republican leaders, led by President Trump, are treating coronavirus more like a political controversy than a potentially deadly pathogen. However lethal the illness proves to be in the long run, our nation has been infected by Republican cynicism that is putting Trump’s re-election bid above our well-being.

I watched/listened to Trump’s Wed. evening address and was grateful that he finally had the appropriate tone and finally taking the COVID-19 virus seriously.  But, alas, I was disappointed by his proposed actions. His main response was to end travel from Europe. But at this point epidemiologists believe we may well have tens of thousands of infected people already in the United States, yet no one has any idea because of the catastrophic failure of testing.  So, stopping additional arrivals from Europe is much less significant than the steps we take here in the U.S. to end public events and encourage people to work from home.

One thing we learned from the AIDS epidemic is that you can't deal with a health crisis if no one knows who's infected. Yet America still has no idea how many people have the virus.  There is a valid argument that one of the most glaring failures our country’s handling of this pandemic is our mishandling of testing. The World Health Organization offered the U.S. diagnostic tests, and our government refused. Meanwhile, the U.S. bungled the development of tests so that we have much less testing than in other countries. I am relieved to learn that Johns Hopkins Medicine, Stanford University and University of Washington are all moving forward in developing their own tests for the COVID-19 virus, but the government has limited them in how and where they can be used. And the government says it is against drive-through testing, (which is critical to avoid contaminating clinics), because it wants to preserve the doctor-patient relationship. I'm not making this up….

This pandemic is a long-overdue, huge slap-in-the-face, wake-up call for ALL of us.  The coronavirus has us finally understanding and accepting that we are all in the same boat together and we are taking on water. It is time for everyone to start bailing or start swimming. BTW, our proverbial boat is called planet Earth. Now just a month and a half away from Earth Day 2020, we might look up from our cache of prepper supplies, put down the Purell and think a bit about fixing the leaking boat carrying us all through space. There is no Planet B…..

AVB-AMG

[Sniper 6,372]

14 minutes ago, AVB-AMG said:

I said that from the day Donald Trump was elected,

@AVB-AMG

You've suffered the TDS virus since the day he was elected.

15 minutes ago, AVB-AMG said:

Those who perpetuate the coronavirus (COVID-19) denial or dismissive of its lethality, is just the latest battle in a long-term war on truth in this country and the very idea that there exists an inconvenient objective reality.

Does that include Dr. Anthony Fauci, who lowered the death rate down to 1% the other day? You know, where 99% who catch the Covid..... survive.

18 minutes ago, AVB-AMG said:

Now just a month and a half away from Earth Day 2020, we might look up from our cache of prepper supplies, put down the Purell and think a bit about fixing the leaking boat carrying us all through space. There is no Planet B…..

Yet all you want to do is blame Trump. Did he, single handedly, create this virus?

[raz-0 1,259]

15 hours ago, Sniper said:

...." February 26, 2020 10:01 am Chris Crawford – According to a Feb. 21 CDC Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report,(www.cdc.gov) the current influenza vaccine has been 45% effective overall against 2019-2020 seasonal influenza A and B viruses. "

Is that considered "pretty good"?

It's better than the previous year's 29%. A really good year is about 60% IIRC. Which is why a vaccination rate greater than 50% is desired. It's effectiveness is not only about how close a match the vaccine is to the viruses that year, but also the demographics of those vaccinated and infected. Maybe your younger folks who get a close cousin in the vaccine have a better rate of fighting off this years big flu bug. 

 

25 minutes ago, Mrs. Peel said:

No kidding! It's hard to know what's going on . Here's one clue though - that young healthcare worker James Cai at Hackensack hospital that was interviewed in recent days? On camera, he was talking like he was dying... I'm getting worse! It's the worst thing ever!!, etc. ... and the press was hanging on each bombastic word like it was his swan song... well, he's recovering now.  So, yeah, I think there's been some hype.

If you're 65+ and/or immuno-compromised, it's probably wise to avoid crowds, wash your hands more than usual, avoid touching your face, etc. Other than that, I'm still thinking there's a lot of overreaction. 

It depends on what you are talking about. 

The economics of it is going to suck. Supply chain disruptions and reduced customer activity are going to hurt a lot of companies. tax revenues will fall off. Etc. 

Medically, we have hospital staff being issued one per day and a bag to stow it in... don't lose it. Peak flu season usually stresses a lot of hospitals. Since covid-19 is looking like it will have a bigger and faster peak, it will definitely overwhelm surge capacity in many places. Beds aside, we are not going to be able to keep up with PPE needs given the current supply chain issues. 

AS for threat to the population, the dangers are more the knock on effects of infrastructure failing to do it's job. Wuhan city is 11 millon people with about 9 million in the urban center. The urban center is a about 25% larger than the 5 boroughs of NYC with about 6% more people jammed in there. So not quite as population dense. Out of 9 million people, 80,000 or so got sick enough to get on the books. About 3% of that 80k died.  We have similar median ages, the US has more fatties (about twice the rate), and China has a more smokers (about twice the rate of the north east, 25% vs 15% overall). We are about even with the rate of diabetes. 

Then you have to factor in other things, like how good is home care here vs there? If we have better access to OC medications and such and our medical system disincentivizes seeking medical care for less severe cases, we may get less spread.  We also get the benefit of not being able to be wildly  optimistic since we aren't anywhere near going first. But China got to where they are with less supply chain issues then everyone else will have by both going first, and being the country of manufacture for most of those supplies. 

At a macro level we'll be fine. If we fare twice as bad as China, 98%+ of us will still be walking around when it is all over. 

But to quote the nurses with limited PPE supplies and fun stuff like TB patients.... FUUUUUUUUUCK. 

Will you see patients like that get less intervention? Possibly, without PPE, bodies going to the incinerator is a lot more effective at stopping the spread of covid and TB than exposing your healthcare staff extensively to TB. Nobody will bother keeping track og those kinds of deaths in any public manner.