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Prep For Quarantine / Pandemic

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11 minutes ago, Sniper said:

1680 cases in the country and 41 deaths, and the nationwide economy melts down and the country shuts down....

:banghead:

With the dearth of testing, there are probably at least 5000 cases or more.   They are slow rolling the testing due to incompetence or malice, i'm not sure.

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I’m much less worried about supply - growing season is coming, NJ isn’t the desert, Etc. 
 

More concerned with private distribution.  I think the economy fallout will be that some do wel and others don’t.  Par for the course. The Cheesecake Factory revenue will probably drop.  The Chinese food and Pizza parlor down the street will probably do great. 
 

Companies that produce stuff will still have to. Life does go on despite the doom and gloom.  At least until the Nuclear reactors melt down. And even then most likely.  Let’s face it.  Everyone is reliant on revenue and payroll.  Companies will want to continue producing and making money, people have to pay their mortgages.  Even the federal government, who can and does just print money, will want “real” revenue. 

Any office jobs and stuff that can be done remotely will be so. Limitation of congregation is the key, so any food processing or manufacture that has large numbers of people may have to reduce staff and production (note, that’s not the pizza place or Chinese restaurant with three employees). 

The challenge will be how stores allow access and transactions. i was down in the Virgin Islands after Irma and after Maria.  That’s a good microcosm because they were limited in anything from the outside world for a while.  It remained orderly. We were safe.  There was no power and there were curfews.  Distribution of what was there and what slowly trickled in was the problem.  The Home Depot had major mold issues and people couldn’t go in.  They had to ask for items and be served, old school style. 
 

I suspect we may see that at the local shop rites and wegmans.  Government mandated limitations on travel and congregation.  Limited people allowed in, or nobody allowed in - place your order and pay, someone hands items and you leave.  So getting some stuff might be slow. 
 

The other wild card is how the internet and networks hold up.  I’d suspect many places will go to online ordering, slow processing with minimal staff, online payments, and get to a place at a prescribed time to pick up your stuff. Will be curious to see how ups deals with this.  That’s an important cog as well as the ups man doesn’t necessarily face or touch many people, but gets a lot of stuff to a lot of people. 

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28 minutes ago, Malsua said:

With the dearth of testing, there are probably at least 5000 cases or more.   They are slow rolling the testing due to incompetence or malice, i'm not sure.

I bet it's a lot more than that. I saw a story that when they tested the Diamond Princess in Japan, over half of the people who tested positive never showed any symptoms. Which shows, many cases are really minor.

But, it doesn't matter if people get tested. Bottom line, if someone is having symptoms, they need to stay home. Treatment is the same if it's WuFlu, seasonal flu, a common cold, or what ever. Does someone really need a test, when they have a fever, coughing or sneezing to tell them they are sick?

Unless they want to do mass testing, to see if someone is carrying the virus but not showing symptoms, the actual test just ends up being a data point. It doesn't affect treatment is someone is already sick.

 

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21 minutes ago, CMJeepster said:

Some of this can also be attributed to the Russian oil issues going on right now.

I don't think that has anything to do with all major events cancelled, business conferences cancelled, public events cancelled, theme parks closed, schools closing, major sports cancelled, supply shortages and lack of demand at stores, airlines, hotels, cruises, etc.

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11 minutes ago, Sniper said:

I bet it's a lot more than that. I saw a story that when they tested the Diamond Princess in Japan, over half of the people who tested positive never showed any symptoms. Which shows, many cases are really minor.

But, it doesn't matter if people get tested. Bottom line, if someone is having symptoms, they need to stay home. Treatment is the same if it's WuFlu, seasonal flu, a common cold, or what ever. Does someone really need a test, when they have a fever, coughing or sneezing to tell them they are sick?

Unless they want to do mass testing, to see if someone is carrying the virus but not showing symptoms, the actual test just ends up being a data point. It doesn't affect treatment is someone is already sick.

 

At some point all 300+ million citizens will be tested - it is only a matter of time before you get the 'order' to show up to be test at that particular moment in time

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19 minutes ago, Sniper said:

I don't think that has anything to do with all major events cancelled, business conferences cancelled, public events cancelled, theme parks closed, schools closing, major sports cancelled, supply shortages and lack of demand at stores, airlines, hotels, cruises, etc.

I wasn't referring to those things.

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14 minutes ago, Grapeshot said:

Arthur C. Clark fans will recognize Hanlon's Razor here:

Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.

I used to be that naive; not anymore. After the past three years, malice is my go to explanation.

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1 hour ago, Sniper said:

But, it doesn't matter if people get tested

From a health perspective you’re probably right. But keeping the testing to those admitted to the hospital keeps the fatality ratio high. If they tested everyone the denominator would be larger and ratio would drop.  Can instill panic when fatalities are 0.7%

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5 minutes ago, USRifle30Cal said:

Probably - the police state tracking in china is NOT going away - why think that a national DNA database wouldn't be created.

We're not China, for starters, that's a rather significant distinction.  As for mandatory testing of 300MM+ citizens, this will all be over a long time before 300MM+ test kits are available.   

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1 hour ago, voyager9 said:

From a health perspective you’re probably right. But keeping the testing to those admitted to the hospital keeps the fatality ratio high. If they tested everyone the denominator would be larger and ratio would drop.  Can instill panic when fatalities are 0.7%

Regarding testing, from Trump's news conference: They looked at the data from So. Korea, and out of all the  people tested who exhibited virus symptoms, only 4% actually tested positive for Covid. So, it appears that the other 96% were either seasonal flu, common cold, allergies, or something similar.

They said that in the US so far, out of the ones exhibiting symptoms, only 2% have tested positive.

So yes, more tests will probably show more negatives or minor cases, which will reduce the overall mortality rate.

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53 minutes ago, 10X said:

We're not China, for starters, that's a rather significant distinction.  As for mandatory testing of 300MM+ citizens, this will all be over a long time before 300MM+ test kits are available.   

It’s just fantasyland to entertain this.  Not arguing it could not happen or that it’s impossible. It’s just logistically impractical and there isn’t currently some standing dna collection force that big brother is suiting up to go door to door right now. 
While I get the position of some to not let a good crisis go to waste, I think it’s not in the cards today. 

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1 hour ago, 10X said:

We're not China, for starters, that's a rather significant distinction.  As for mandatory testing of 300MM+ citizens, this will all be over a long time before 300MM+ test kits are available.   

You think just because it is 'over', they aren't gonna test?

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I went to renew my carry permit today and the place was packed. So many people. They had 5 or six ladies doing background checks, paper work and two sheriff’s officers processing the actual permits. It took me like 30 minutes to get my new card.... So it’s crazy everywhere not just Costco and the supermarkets.

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