Prep For Quarantine / Pandemic

[CAL. .30 M1 2,101]

14 minutes ago, High Exposure said:

Pretty good article about modeling/predicting what will happen here based on data we are seeing in other countries.
 

It is a bit long, but despite its crazy title, it is a good read.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

So it is something?

[High Exposure 5,662]

Dunno. I know some folks are starting to take it very seriously and that is making my job exponentially more difficult.

This article put a few things in perspective that I had not thought of before, and made understanding some of the numbers out there make more sense.

[10X 3,296]

52 minutes ago, USRifle30Cal said:

You think just because it is 'over', they aren't gonna test?

Yep, that’s exactly what I think.   Because it would serve no purpose, and make no more sense than testing for SARS today. 

But if I was worried about the government wanting to test anyway for some unfathomable reason, I’d know that testing 300MM+ people would cost in the 10’s of billions of dollars range, and I’d come right back to thinking it ain’t gonna happen. 

[raz-0 1,259]

1 hour ago, High Exposure said:

Pretty good article about modeling/predicting what will happen here based on data we are seeing in other countries.
 

It is a bit long, but despite its crazy title, it is a good read.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

It’s a solid read. Some fairly technical stuff explained clearly. 

[Old Glock guy 1,127]

I've seen a definite uptick in the panic level in my town the last 2-3 days,  Anyone hit their personal redline yet and go to the mattresses?

[45Doll 5,874]

Just now, Old Glock guy said:

I've seen a definite uptick in the panic level around here the last 2-3 days,  Anyone hit their personal redline yet and go to the mattresses?

No. We're going to a small dinner party tomorrow night. But we've all consulted in advance. One gentleman will not attend because he's been on airplanes and in airports in the last week. Neither will his wife. An abundance of caution. All the rest are vetted and risk is extremely low.

Bon appetit.

 

[Kevin125 4,772]

In my company, the company heads sent everyone home as of the close of business yesterday. The key reason for doing that is to keep everyone off of mass transit. A few of us will visit the office solo each week if there’s a reason to do so and can drive themselves in.  It also depends on the overall situation.

So not locking down.  But definitely restricting contact. A lot.

[voyager9 3,434]

Burlco public schools closed until 4/20. 

[Sniper 6,372]

16 minutes ago, voyager9 said:

Burlco public schools closed until 4/20. 

A month from now?

Regarding these closings, many schools, public venues and businesses have made temporary closures, a lot through the end of the month. The thing is, and it was said in Trump's news conference today, that they expect infections to climb for another 6 - 8 weeks, or more. So, what happens when these places hit the end of their temporary closures at the end of the month, and realize nothing changed on the ground, but got worse?

[raz-0 1,259]

17 minutes ago, Sniper said:

A month from now?

Regarding these closings, many schools, public venues and businesses have made temporary closures, a lot through the end of the month. The thing is, and it was said in Trump's news conference today, that they expect infections to climb for another 6 - 8 weeks, or more. So, what happens when these places hit the end of their temporary closures at the end of the month, and realize nothing changed on the ground, but got worse?

They extend the closure.  That’s why the notifications usually say “at least until”. 

[CAL. .30 M1 2,101]

18 minutes ago, Sniper said:

A month from now?

Regarding these closings, many schools, public venues and businesses have made temporary closures, a lot through the end of the month. The thing is, and it was said in Trump's news conference today, that they expect infections to climb for another 6 - 8 weeks, or more. So, what happens when these places hit the end of their temporary closures at the end of the month, and realize nothing changed on the ground, but got worse?

I watched the whole thing....i don't recall them saying it is going to climb for 8 weeks or more....  is there a transcript...?

Fauci has said in other venues...continue to climb plateu decline essentially....and he could not estimate when the peak will be....because of the blunting measures being taken.

 

1 hour ago, Old Glock guy said:

I've seen a definite uptick in the panic level in my town the last 2-3 days,  Anyone hit their personal redline yet and go to the mattresses?

What's ur redline and what's your mattress...

[CAL. .30 M1 2,101]

2 hours ago, High Exposure said:

Dunno. I know some folks are starting to take it very seriously and that is making my job exponentially more difficult.

This article put a few things in perspective that I had not thought of before, and made understanding some of the numbers out there make more sense.

I kinda meant more tounge in cheek...it is something and has been something and will continue to be.

 

You will also be on the front line to some degree....be safe .....

We as a world still have plenty of time to win this....we as a society still have a chance to win.

Collapse could still come.....probably wont, thank God....but if it does...even those hiding in the hills of idaho and other places won't survive.

[Sniper 6,372]

1 hour ago, USRifle30Cal said:

I watched the whole thing....i don't recall them saying it is going to climb for 8 weeks or more....  is there a transcript...?

Fauci has said in other venues...continue to climb plateu decline essentially....and he could not estimate when the peak will be..

He's said it a few times the last few days, obviously no one knows exactly, but they're looking at the data from China and So, Korea. Here's one transcript:

....." Dr. Anthony Fauci, the top infectious disease expert at the National Institutes of Health, says shutdowns and working from home could last up to "eight weeks or more" as COVID-19 cases continue to surge in the U.S.

Fauci made the assessment of what is still to come during an interview Friday with Good Morning America, saying the current state of crisis in the U.S. could last anywhere from two weeks to two months.

"I hope it's going to be in the earlier part, two, three, four weeks, but it's impossible to make an accurate prediction," Fauci said. "It's certainly going to get worse before it gets better."

[gleninjersey 2,139]

On 3/12/2020 at 3:39 PM, Sota said:

thinking EFGA visits are in order next week.

I went to the range clean up day last Saturday.  Meet up with a friend I met here on the forums and has since made his escape to PA.

We were hoping to do some shooting after we finished with the clean up but it was still a bit windy and cold.  We checked out a local auto salvage yard (Frist Choice Auto Salvage in Coopersburg) that had some parts I needed for the 04 Pontiac Grand Prix GTP Comg G Edition ("Supa Charged!").  Pretty good salvage yard, huge lot.  I picked up compete front bumper in correct color including engergy absorber and  header panel for $200!  

But I digress.  Back to prepping for quarantine.....

[Sniper 6,372]

5 hours ago, High Exposure said:

Pretty good article about modeling/predicting what will happen here based on data we are seeing in other countries.
It is a bit long, but despite its crazy title, it is a good read.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

I saw that article the other day, and thought, OK lots of data and pretty charts. But something didn't seem right, so I went and did some research about the author, Tomas Pueyo. This is what I found (hint, he's NOT a medical professional):

....."After moving to America in 2008 for his MBA at Stanford University, where he specialized in behavioral psychology, design, storytelling, and script-writing, Tomas, since then, is passionate about self-development and constant learning.

He entered his career by working in Silicon Valley, designing and marketing products to hundreds of millions of customers in the entertainment, finance, and media industries."

https://wikiaboutworld.com/tomas-pueyo-biography-biography-wiki/

I was wondering why his graphs looked so impressive and scary. Turns out he's a Marketing guy. He's really good at manipulating information to sell his narrative. He's even better at tweaking the X-Y axis to make the charts REALLY scary!!

Then, reading the actual article, it's filled with words like "estimates", or " theoretical model", or "maybe", or "the model", or "likelyhood", etc. He even in one point states the numbers are " completely fictitious ", but he used them just for presentation purposes.

He even outlines in the start of the article how he is going to "lead" you towards his chosen narrative and conclusion:

Here’s what I’m going to cover in this article, with lots of charts, data and models with plenty of sources:

• How many cases of coronavirus will there be in your area?

• What will happen when these cases materialize?

• What should you do?

• When?

 

I have to say.... he gets a A+ for presentation....  Factual data??? We'll have to see about that....

[gleninjersey 2,139]

11 hours ago, JHZR2 said:

The other wild card is how the internet and networks hold up.  I’d suspect many places will go to online ordering, slow processing with minimal staff, online payments, and get to a place at a prescribed time to pick up your stuff. Will be curious to see how ups deals with this.  That’s an important cog as well as the ups man doesn’t necessarily face or touch many people, but gets a lot of stuff to a lot of people. 

My office is starting to go 100% work from home.

I've worked one day a week from home for past year or so.  Generally little to no issue.  Systems are almost as responsive as if i were in the office.

Today many more people than usual were working from home.  At times my computer was like molasses just above freezing.  Slow.  Painfully slow.  And we aren't at 100% yet.  

I called IT to inquire.  Their response was "We aren't suppossed to say we dont' hav enough capacity...."

Next week should be interesting as more people remote in.  They may have to limit the amount of employees remothing in.  Furlough some people on a rotational basis perhaps?  

[gleninjersey 2,139]

9 hours ago, voyager9 said:

From a health perspective you’re probably right. But keeping the testing to those admitted to the hospital keeps the fatality ratio high. If they tested everyone the denominator would be larger and ratio would drop.  Can instill panic when fatalities are 0.7%

Isn't the test, how to I put this politely, highly unreliable?

I don't know about anyone else, but unless I am really, really, REALLY sick, I'm not going to a hospital in the current situtation.

Why risk going to where LOTS of people who think they may be it unless you KNOW you have it?

I'll stay home and self medicate.  And by self medicate I mean a little whiskey every day while I'm feeling healthy and plenty of water.

If I start feeling ill I'll take OTC meds, only have one shot of whiskey a day and rest.

If I get sicker and nothing is working.....THEN I'll drag my sick ass to the ER or where ever.  

[Downtownv 1,774]

I live on the water in Ocean Co. The notion of Preppng has always been our mantra. We are vulnerable to high tides, Nor Easters and the very unlikely repeat of another Sandy.

We have BOB's in the garage for 5 minute evacuation, 1/2 hour and 1 hour, Depending on the urgency to leave vs time to load more gear We have stored vacuum sealed foods to last us a year. We have water filtration and cooking capabilities. We have ammo and plenty of defense tools. We have another unique thing, 75% of the houses around me are "Summer Use" only so there's always the last resort foraging, that could be very easy.

The downside, it is a virtual impossibility to cordon off an area as the lagoon system makes it a virtual impossibility. I tell people, if you are starting to "prep" now, you're too late. Prepping is a long term build-up not a quick trip to the store.

And yet, I am positive, none of this will be needed.

 

[CAL. .30 M1 2,101]

2 hours ago, Downtownv said:

I live on the water in Ocean Co. The notion of Preppng has always been our mantra. We are vulnerable to high tides, Nor Easters and the very unlikely repeat of another Sandy.

We have BOB's in the garage for 5 minute evacuation, 1/2 hour and 1 hour, Depending on the urgency to leave vs time to load more gear We have stored vacuum sealed foods to last us a year. We have water filtration and cooking capabilities. We have ammo and plenty of defense tools. We have another unique thing, 75% of the houses around me are "Summer Use" only so there's always the last resort foraging, that could be very easy.

The downside, it is a virtual impossibility to cordon off an area as the lagoon system makes it a virtual impossibility. I tell people, if you are starting to "prep" now, you're too late. Prepping is a long term build-up not a quick trip to the store.

And yet, I am positive, none of this will be needed.

 

*But*, isn't it a little reassuring, it is for me, oddly.

I agree this isn't the event that will require this.

In the sticks of sussex co., we have learned to always have stuff on hand..and thank God we didn't decide to live on LI .....

[Malsua 1,422]

10 minutes ago, USRifle30Cal said:

*But*, isn't it a little reassuring, it is for me, oddly.

I agree this isn't the event that will require this.

In the sticks of sussex co., we have learned to always have stuff on hand..and thank God we didn't decide to live on LI .....

I'm up here in Sussex as well and my wife asked me yesterday in a joking fashion "Should we be prepared to go camping or something?"  My response is we're already as camped as we need to be.

Yes, we're not in a cabin, 2 hours from the nearest highway, but we have everything we need.  Food, water, power, sanitation, firearms and currently 6 cords of firewood with 3 more on the ground that needs split.  We could limit road egress into our town pretty easy and the terrain is difficult.  We could manage for some period of time.  If you ever need as much ammo as shown above, there's a war on.  I'm all for being prepared and I do have more ammo that I will probably ever shoot.  I suspect if it ever got to it, I might need a few hundred rounds tops, 99% of which would be used for animals.

[Downtownv 1,774]

21 minutes ago, Malsua said:

I'm up here in Sussex as well and my wife asked me yesterday in a joking fashion "Should we be prepared to go camping or something?"  My response is we're already as camped as we need to be.

Yes, we're not in a cabin, 2 hours from the nearest highway, but we have everything we need.  Food, water, power, sanitation, firearms and currently 6 cords of firewood with 3 more on the ground that needs split.  We could limit road egress into our town pretty easy and the terrain is difficult.  We could manage for some period of time.  If you ever need as much ammo as shown above, there's a war on.  I'm all for being prepared and I do have more ammo that I will probably ever shoot.  I suspect if it ever got to it, I might need a few hundred rounds tops, 99% of which would be used for animals.

He he he, I wish that was actually my ammo!

And certainly no basements at sea level, but we have an ocean full of fish!

 

[CAL. .30 M1 2,101]

19 minutes ago, Malsua said:

I'm up here in Sussex as well and my wife asked me yesterday in a joking fashion "Should we be prepared to go camping or something?"  My response is we're already as camped as we need to be.

Yes, we're not in a cabin, 2 hours from the nearest highway, but we have everything we need.  Food, water, power, sanitation, firearms and currently 6 cords of firewood with 3 more on the ground that needs split.  We could limit road egress into our town pretty easy and the terrain is difficult.  We could manage for some period of time.  If you ever need as much ammo as shown above, there's a war on.  I'm all for being prepared and I do have more ammo that I will probably ever shoot.  I suspect if it ever got to it, I might need a few hundred rounds tops, 99% of which would be used for animals.

I am across the valley from you.....from the top of the stairway to heaven looks west....if you can see VTHS

[Malsua 1,422]

17 minutes ago, USRifle30Cal said:

I am across the valley from you.....from the top of the stairway to heaven looks west....if you can see VTHS

I'm in Highland Lakes.  We block breakneck, Canistear, Barret and 638, there is no way in short of quads/dirt bikes.  Even that is sketchy.   The woods, swamps and mountains/cliffs/rockwalls are a severe impediment to travel.  Possible, yes.  Difficult, certainly.

I'm about 4 miles crow flight from the top of stairway, with only a slight elevation change.

 

 

 

 

[CAL. .30 M1 2,101]

8 minutes ago, Malsua said:

I'm in Highland Lakes.  We block breakneck, Canistear, Barret and 638, there is no way in short of quads/dirt bikes.  Even that is sketchy.   The woods, swamps and mountains/cliffs/rockwalls are a severe impediment to travel.  Possible, yes.  Difficult, certainly.

I'm about 4 miles crow flight from the top of stairway, with only a slight elevation change.

 

 

 

 

I know your location.... i am..Up 565 from pochuck.....semi secluded development borders 300plus acres state land and parts of the AT...beats a culedesac in smithtown....or a house in brooklyn

 

When i first saw it ..i felt it would be a good place to hold up if needed for a couple of months....never really thought it would be needed....i thought Sandy was it....  this....well this can go many ways....in the short term and long....  shorterm snafu at best..longer term past june i think its a turn around.

[Displaced Texan 11,731]

4 hours ago, Downtownv said:

I live on the water in Ocean Co. The notion of Preppng has always been our mantra. We are vulnerable to high tides, Nor Easters and the very unlikely repeat of another Sandy.

We have BOB's in the garage for 5 minute evacuation, 1/2 hour and 1 hour, Depending on the urgency to leave vs time to load more gear We have stored vacuum sealed foods to last us a year. We have water filtration and cooking capabilities. We have ammo and plenty of defense tools. We have another unique thing, 75% of the houses around me are "Summer Use" only so there's always the last resort foraging, that could be very easy.

The downside, it is a virtual impossibility to cordon off an area as the lagoon system makes it a virtual impossibility. I tell people, if you are starting to "prep" now, you're too late. Prepping is a long term build-up not a quick trip to the store.

And yet, I am positive, none of this will be needed.

 

Growing up in west Texas, formed and solidified the idea of ‘prepping’ in my head. 
It was an hour each way to go shopping, so you damn well made sure you had what you needed when you went to town. 
We always had plenty of firearms and ammunition, but my dad made sure to stock us up on .22LR every time we went to town. 
Our place is 7 miles from town..nowadays there is more shopping in town, but you’ll still have to drive an hour to Abilene for any decent shopping or out of the ordinary supplies. When I was growing up, you really didn’t have the luxury of popping in the corner store for a few items...because there really wasn’t a corner store to go to! 

We always had ‘bug out bags’ long before they were fashionable. 

The though process of stocking up has always carried over with me, even when I moved to NJ. We buy in bulk, because we have room to store things, and it’s cheaper in quantity. 

[Handyman 5,682]

19 hours ago, Displaced Texan said:

What I did for the Klondike bar is between me and Mrs Tex! 

 

[45Doll 5,874]

6 hours ago, Downtownv said:

I live on the water in Ocean Co. 

Doesn't your boat list?

[Displaced Texan 11,731]

8 minutes ago, Handyman said:

 

Is that what YOU did for a Klondike bar?

I don’t want one THAT bad!

[Sniper 6,372]

9 hours ago, gleninjersey said:

Isn't the test, how to I put this politely, highly unreliable?

I don't know about anyone else, but unless I am really, really, REALLY sick, I'm not going to a hospital in the current situtation.

Why risk going to where LOTS of people who think they may be it unless you KNOW you have it?

I'll stay home and self medicate.  And by self medicate I mean a little whiskey every day while I'm feeling healthy and plenty of water.

I believe this is the BEST way to handle it. And yes, there have been false positives and negatives from the test, so it's not absolute. A lot of the spread in China came from the hoards of people who ran to the hospital when they had any type of symptom, and sat next to all the other coughing and spewing people.

They looked at the data from South Korea the past month or two. What it showed was that for all the people who came in showing virus symptoms for testing, only 4% tested positive for the Covid. That means 96% had either the seasonal flu, a common cold, or similar. Plus, over 80% who test positive get better without any medical intervention.

Even on the Diamond Princess in Japan, which is a great source of data, since they were quarantined, of the people who tested positive, half never showed ANY symptoms.

So, the best advice if you have any symptoms, just stay at home and self treat.

[Sniper 6,372]

13 hours ago, raz-0 said:

They extend the closure.  That’s why the notifications usually say “at least until”. 

My point was, I see many people thinking that it will be only a two week closing or vacation for the kids, then think come April, everything will be back to normal. So they use two weeks of vacation, and think everything will be normal in two weeks. Then, what happens when they're told it's an additional two weeks or a month???