Prep For Quarantine / Pandemic

[Mrs. Peel 7,157]

I will admit, I have really struggled to wrap my brain around what's going on here... diving into a variety of articles, etc. There's so many things to consider. My non-medical/ordinary person conclusion is that we're seeing an ineffective approach that is largely driven by panic and hysteria (and perhaps a bit of political gamesmanship as well).

I think we should be addressing areas/settings based on their vulnerability, as best we can - so stepping up actions in hot zones, but keeping things relatively "normal" in non-hot zones, perhaps coupled with a huge public information campaign (TV commercials/radio commercials/Internet commercials) re: handwashing, social distancing, etc. (Much like they did "loose lips sink ships" or "rosie the riveter" wartime campaigns).

For instance, I just learned that New Rochelle, NY set up a drive-through testing area. People call ahead, make an appointment based on certain criteria (age, overall health, caretaker status, symptomology, etc.). That makes sense to me, because they had a number of cases in a fairly small area, and they know they have community transmission. So, taking a more aggressive approach makes sense there. Broader testing in those areas would also reveal some useful statistics.

Likewise, last I heard, there were 300+ nursing homes across the nation that instituted a "no visitor" policy. That also makes sense to me, based on the known vulnerability of the elderly population. They should be doing that at EVERY nursing home in the country, and possibly in all hospitals, too, and perhaps doing mandatory, routine testing of healthcare workers (symptomatic or not), so that they don't unwittingly spread germs in a healthcare setting.

However, entire states (like Illinois, Ohio) are shutting down schools - despite the fact that the bulk of those states' counties have no identified cases and despite the fact that children do NOT even appear to be vulnerable population for COVID-19! So, that just seems DUMB. And Gov Murphy talking about shutting down all NJ schools and having a state-wide curfew - also seems DUMB when there've been NO hospitalized (or even positive-tested people) in Warren, Hunterdon, Somerset and many other NJ counties. So, I've concluded much of this is just insane. The approach should be aggressive only in targeted areas. Statewide or even nationwide responses are not a good idea when you consider the limited numbers of patients and huge economic downsides. Some of these actions will put small businesses completely under and throw their owners and employees into desperate situations (for some staff living paycheck to paycheck, they could be destitute within 2 weeks). We are destroying the economy, fast. Worse yet, there's no evidence it will stop the progression of the disease anyway - we may just be deferring the same bell curve to 2- or 4- or 6-plus weeks down the road, AFTER we tank the economy.  What a mess! 

[Kevin125 4,772]

2 minutes ago, USRifle30Cal said:

"The death toll in the United States is more than 50."

 

That is a news headline.....

 

10 times that, 100 times that 1000 times that - its a typical year.....  for a virus....
 

Exactly. 

[Displaced Texan 11,737]

21 of those deaths occurred at ONE senior living home in Washington State. 
 

On a side note, just returned from USVI. Zero screening for COV19 symptoms at either STT or on arrival at PHL....not that I expected any...

 

I checked stock at home for TP and PT. 20 rolls of TP, and 6 PT. We are in dire straits...

[Malsua 1,422]

32 minutes ago, Mrs. Peel said:

However, entire states (like Illinois, Ohio) are shutting down schools - despite the fact that the bulk of those states' counties have no identified cases and despite the fact that children do NOT even appear to be vulnerable population for COVID-19! So, that just seems DUMB. And Gov Murphy talking about shutting down all NJ schools and having a state-wide curfew - also seems DUMB when there've been NO hospitalized (or even positive-tested people) in Warren, Hunterdon, Somerset and many other NJ counties. So, I've concluded much of this is just insane.

Look at flu season.  It tracks exactly to when school is open.   While children may not get sick and die due to Sars-Cov2, they CAN get it.  They will then pass it to each other and take it home to their parents and grandparents.  The one single thing that best can shut this thing down is probably school closings.  Everywhere.

 

[Mrs. Peel 7,157]

5 minutes ago, Malsua said:

Look at flu season.  It tracks exactly to when school is open.   While children may not get sick and die due to Sars-Cov2, they CAN get it.  They will then pass it to each other and take it home to their parents and grandparents.  The one single thing that best can shut this thing down is probably school closings.  Everywhere.

Eh, I don't agree. Teachers will get paid either way (by contract). But what about all those hourly workers at school? What about parents who will have to stay home (and maybe lose their jobs) to take care of those kids? Will triggering a bunch of immediate needs and future bankruptcies actually stop this disease? There's also no evidence (yet), that children are even "super-carriers" of this virus, as they are with some others. Kids who live with elderly or immuno-compromised family members should join in the classroom through Skype. People need to get more flexible in their approach. "Shutting it all down" is too much, I think. This is not China (with great poverty and unhygienic open-air animal markets), nor is it Italy (with more social kissing/less social distance, higher rate smoking, a higher percentage of elderly population). All of those things factor into the track of the disease. From what we know about demographics, it's unlikely to hit as hard here.

[Kevin125 4,772]

Congress just covered the hourly workers in the bill they passed.  At least for a time.

[Kevin125 4,772]

Ok... wait a minute.  Italy averages 17,000 deaths per flu season due to the flu. These are their stats from 2014 to 2018.  The research notes Italy has the highest mortality rate for flu in Europe.

That’s an average of about ...

94 per day......

Higher in the peak times.  Like....  now. Say... 180-200.

Assuming flu season is 6 months. Versus 13 weeks as notes for some regions.

Yet someone posted  lengthy obituaries to point out the number of deaths from corona. So...  do Italians not do obits for flu deaths?

 

[raz-0 1,259]

58 minutes ago, Sniper said:

Here is the weekly update from the CDC for the seasonal flu as of March 7th:

...."CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 36 million flu illnesses, 370,000 hospitalizations and 22,000 deaths from flu."

Why hasn't there been any media hysteria about those numbers???

Does the lives of the 22,000 don't matter to the MSM versus the 57 Covid deaths in the country now?

I really wish they taught math better.

Here’s why: 

The R0 of the flu is ~1.3. With that we got 36 million cases. It has a mortality rate of about 0.095% that we wind up with 22,000 dead. 
 

This is not a bad year for the flu. 
 

COVID-19 has an R0 between 2.2-3.2 based on estimates to date. We will go with a popular consensus number out there 2.3. Mortality rate has varied between 1.48% (places in China where social distancing, etc were put in place early, after Wuhan showed it was bad) and 5% (Italy). Wuhan, which was an example of belated intervention is rocking a rate of a bit above 4%. 
 

Let’s go ten rounds of infection. I just did this math manually but I’ll probably write a script to do better numbers.  
flu = 42.73 infected

covid-19= 7328.50 infected  

So.... a whole season without intervention you aren’t talking 36 million cases. It’s way bigger. And then it isn’t 22,000 dead. It is a rate 12-40x greater of that much bigger number.  

it is epically bad.  But that 1.48% I mentioned earlier was the result of preventive measures reducing that R0 number and by association allowing for better medical care.

[Kevin125 4,772]

Yes, but these are projections based on confirmed test results which do not fully account for the real number of infections in the population.  The reality is we just do not know for sure yet.  But.... the world is acting like it does know for sure.

[Malsua 1,422]

3 minutes ago, Mrs. Peel said:

Eh, I don't agree. Teachers will get paid either way (by contract). But what about all those hourly workers at school? What about parents who will have to stay home (and maybe lose their jobs) to take care of those kids? Will triggering a bunch of immediate needs and future bankruptcies actually stop this disease? There's also no evidence (yet), that children are even "super-carriers" of this virus, as they are with some others. Kids who live with elderly or immuno-compromised family members should join in the classroom through Skype. People need to get more flexible in their approach. "Shutting it all down" is too much, I think. This is not China (with great poverty and unhygienic open-air animal markets), nor is it Italy (with more social kissing/less social distance, higher rate smoking, a higher percentage of elderly population). All of those things factor into the track of the disease. From what we know about demographics, it's unlikely to hit as hard here.

 

How do those parents deal with summer break?  Deal with it the same way.

There are children getting this disease on vent at 16, here's one(https://www.rtlnieuws.nl/nieuws/nederland/artikel/5056536/coronavirus-tieners-sehraz-breda-16-intensive-care-besmet-covid19 )  There are children showing no symptoms(https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/6/20-0301_article  )   This is not in dispute.  The youngest intubated person is a 16 Year old girl.

If you want to shut down our economy, watch what happens when we start turning people away from hospitals because they are overrun.  

Any balance that allows free movement of people may as well be ignored totally.  It will only delay the inevitable by hours or days.

Regional lockdowns are coming.  If you're not ready for that, make ready. 

 

 

[DirtyDigz 1,812]

2 minutes ago, Malsua said:

If you want to shut down our economy, watch what happens when we start turning people away from hospitals because they are overrun. 

This.

[xXxplosive 824]

Just heard some disturbing news....my wife tells me she just heard from an associate here in Somerset County that some parents are scheduling home parties with parents and kids now the they are out of school....Bazaar !!!!

[CAL. .30 M1 2,101]

1 minute ago, xXxplosive said:

Just heard some disturbing news....my wife tells me she just heard from an associate here in Somerset County that some parents are scheduling home parties with parents and kids now the they are out of school....Bazaar !!!!

Bizarre?

 

 

[CAL. .30 M1 2,101]

Maybe it is for the best that the planet is finally rid of the scourge that humans have wrought upon it........

 

 

 

[Displaced Texan 11,737]

4 minutes ago, xXxplosive said:

Just heard some disturbing news....my wife tells me she just heard from an associate here in Somerset County that some parents are scheduling home parties with parents and kids now the they are out of school....Bazaar !!!!

They missed the point. Lol

[Bklynracer 1,265]

6 minutes ago, xXxplosive said:

Just heard some disturbing news....my wife tells me she just heard from an associate here in Somerset County that some parents are scheduling home parties with parents and kids now the they are out of school....Bazaar !!!!

Don't they know why the kids are home?

They must not be watching the news.

[Malsua 1,422]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/14/health/coronavirus-asymptomatic-spread/index.html

If you want to read about  asymptomatic transmission, read that article.

Children are most likely to have no symptoms.  Interestingly enough, the people without symptoms were shedding more virus than the ones with symptoms. 

Social distancing is the only thing that works.   

 

 

[fishnut 2,358]

49 minutes ago, Mrs. Peel said:

Eh, I don't agree. Teachers will get paid either way (by contract). But what about all those hourly workers at school? What about parents who will have to stay home (and maybe lose their jobs) to take care of those kids? Will triggering a bunch of immediate needs and future bankruptcies actually stop this disease? There's also no evidence (yet), that children are even "super-carriers" of this virus, as they are with some others. Kids who live with elderly or immuno-compromised family members should join in the classroom through Skype. People need to get more flexible in their approach. "Shutting it all down" is too much, I think. This is not China (with great poverty and unhygienic open-air animal markets), nor is it Italy (with more social kissing/less social distance, higher rate smoking, a higher percentage of elderly population). All of those things factor into the track of the disease. From what we know about demographics, it's unlikely to hit as hard here.

All schools shut down for summer break, why not just have summer break now? 

[Mrs. Peel 7,157]

11 minutes ago, Malsua said:

Interestingly enough, the people without symptoms were shedding more virus than the ones with symptoms. 

OK, that's interesting "intel" that I did not know. Thank you for sharing! If anything though, that may mean that more diligent testing in hot zones - including asymptomatic people - might be a good idea, just to get a better handle on rate of transmission, etc.

I'm still thinking we have an overreaction though. In the meantime though, I will admit that I'm extremely grateful to be a self-employed person who works from home and now has a full pantry. If I need to lay low at home, it shouldn't really impact me for a couple of months. But, I do feel abundant concern for all the other small business owners, for example, who stand to get ruined from this. We have 2 things happening... a potential health crisis from an infection peaking in some hot zones that may (probably will) eventually roll across the whole country... and a related financial crisis that is hitting right now. Either one of those could be devastating on its own... but the 2 of them together is really a perfect storm. 

[Kevin125 4,772]

Just now, fishnut said:

All schools shut down for summer break, why not just have summer break now? 

For the win.....

Actually, for some people it will cost money to deal with the kids being out of school like it would in the summer.  So I get that. But if there was a need for some assistance...this might be a good place for it.

[Mrs. Peel 7,157]

1 minute ago, fishnut said:

All schools shut down for summer break, why not just have summer break now? 

I guess all ideas will have to be on the table! Schools, in particular, will have to be flexible. That's not easy for such bureaucratic institutions, particularly with union contracts involved, etc.

[Kevin125 4,772]

23 minutes ago, Malsua said:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/14/health/coronavirus-asymptomatic-spread/index.html

If you want to read about  asymptomatic transmission, read that article.

Children are most likely to have no symptoms.  Interestingly enough, the people without symptoms were shedding more virus than the ones with symptoms. 

Social distancing is the only thing that works.   

 

 

Researchers need to dig into that further.  It sounds like there is a decent evidence of it but they need to understand exactly how that is happening. Are they Pig Pen from Peanuts?  Or is something else going on?  

[Malsua 1,422]

4 minutes ago, Kevin125 said:

Researchers need to dig into that further.  It sounds like there is a decent evidence of it but they need to understand exactly how that is happening. Are they Pig Pen from Peanuts?  Or is something else going on?  

Eventually all that data will be researched when this thing is done and dusted.

We have to assume based on these studies that it is transmitting asymptomatically and act appropriately.

That people under 20 aren't showing symptoms?  Why?  We will know ultimately, as of now though?  We have to assume they are all little pig pens spewing trillions of virii in their wake and trading it with each other like baseball cards.

My prediction is that next week, as in on the 23, they are going to shut this thing down.  It's going to come with NO NOTICE.  Remember that.  They learned a lesson in Italy.  The people in the zone in Italy knew it was coming and FLED.  This spread it all over the place.  They are going to roll in and shut it down. boom.  done.  I was wrong a few days on the school thing, so it may come this week.   Be ready

 

 

 

[Kevin125 4,772]

5 minutes ago, Malsua said:

That people under 20 aren't showing symptoms?  Why?  We will know ultimately, as of now though?  We have to assume they are all little pig pens spewing trillions of virii in their wake and trading it with each other like baseball cards.

 

That anyone asymptomatic is significantly contagious. If we understand what’s going on there, we might be able to address it.

[Sniper 6,372]

1 hour ago, raz-0 said:

I really wish they taught math better.

 

1 hour ago, raz-0 said:

it is epically bad.  But that 1.48% I mentioned earlier was the result of preventive measures reducing that R0 number and by association allowing for better medical care.

You should write scripts for Hollywood horror movies, with such hyperbole and fantasy....

1 hour ago, Kevin125 said:

Yes, but these are projections based on confirmed test results which do not fully account for the real number of infections in the population.  The reality is we just do not know for sure yet.

Ahhh, come on... why destroy such a great false narrative that he has going...

Let's look at REAL data, not hyperbole and "what- ifs".

The seasonal flu season starts in October. The Covid came on the scene in November, about a month later. Let's compare TRUE numbers, not some hypothetical, failed math experiment. These are the numbers as of last Friday:

As a comparison, the seasonal Flu WORLDWIDE:

There are reported to be some 1 billion influenza infections worldwide each year, with up to 45 million cases in the U.S. per year, tens of thousands of U.S. deaths, and 291,000 to 646,000 deaths worldwide.

In the USA: CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 36 million flu illnesses, 370,000 hospitalizations and 22,000 deaths from flu.

Now, the current Covid WORLDWIDE:

Coronavirus had infected 128,392 people globally and killed 4,728 as of Friday morning,

The U.S. had over 1,701 confirmed coronavirus cases and 40 deaths.

---------------------------------------

One month difference in the start month, ACTUAL numbers WAYYYYYY different.

Making up false math equations with unproven data doesn't accomplish anything...

Remember, you're entitled to your own opinion, you're NOT entitled to your own facts.

[ChrisJM981 924]

13 minutes ago, Malsua said:

My prediction is that next week, as in on the 23, they are going to shut this thing down.  It's going to come with NO NOTICE.  Remember that.  They learned a lesson in Italy.  The people in the zone in Italy knew it was coming and FLED.  This spread it all over the place.  They are going to roll in and shut it down. boom.  done.  I was wrong a few days on the school thing, so it may come this week.   Be ready

Who is they and what are they shutting down?

[Scorpio64 5,153]

If you have CV, then you are only six people away from killing Keven Bacon.

[Kevin125 4,772]

My personal belief at this point is that this started here in 2019 and went unnoticed and that the number of infections is significantly greater than believed today.

[Sniper 6,372]

18 minutes ago, Kevin125 said:

That anyone asymptomatic is significantly contagious. If we understand what’s going on there, we might be able to address it.

Speaking of asymptomatic, I researched the data from the Diamond Princess that was quarantined in Japan for 14 days. This is an interesting dataset, since it was such a closed, controlled group, and it gives some ideas on the contagion and spread:

• Total number of people tested on board (crew and guests) : 3,063
• Number that tested positive for Covid-19: 634 (21%)
• Number showing symptoms: 306
• Number not showing symptoms : 328
• Number of positive people who died: 7 (1%)

Now, a look at the cross section of the age brackets who tested positive:

• Six were aged 0–19 years,
• 152 were aged 20–59 years
• 476 were 60 years and older

So, based on these numbers, it appears that the mortality rate was around 1%, not higher like the media has been reported. Plus Dr. Fauchi also said he felt it was around 1% the other day. Also, many who actually test positive (close to half) don't show symptoms.

What's interesting is that more of the older age groups were asymptomatic versus the younger ones.

[Malsua 1,422]

7 minutes ago, ChrisJM981 said:

Who is they and what are they shutting down?

They being Federal and State governments in conjunction.

I suspect they will do what everyone else has done.  Pharmacy and Groceries remain open.  EVERY OTHER BUSINESS MUST CLOSE.

Essential services will working.  Police/Fire/Telco and delivery. 

It could include provisions that only people working can be on the roads.  Trucks, repairs, etc.  

They could halt interstate travel to everything but essential travel.  Perhaps letting people go home that were away when the ban comes in.

Let's hope it's not everything, but don't be surprised if the NYC chokepoints close one day soon.