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An article about research on Influenza in Italy.  Apparently, when if comes to virus issueS, they do not do well in Italy.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971219303285

Highlights

 

In the winter seasons from 2013/14 to 2016/17, an estimated average of 5,290,000 ILI cases occurred in Italy, corresponding to an incidence of 9%.

More than 68,000 deaths attributable to flu epidemics were estimated in the study period.

Italy showed a higher influenza attributable excess mortality compared to other European countries. especially in the elderly.

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14 minutes ago, Kevin125 said:

My personal belief at this point is that this started here in 2019 and went unnoticed and that the number of infections is significantly greater than believed today.

The number of infections, I'm sure, is higher than reported. Main reason, minor cases don't get reported. But, dead bodies do...

So, if this is as bad a Raz-o claims, the dead bodies should be laying all over the place.... Are they?

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15 minutes ago, Sniper said:

Speaking of asymptomatic, I researched the data from the Diamond Princess that was quarantined in Japan for 14 days. This is an interesting dataset, since it was such a closed, controlled group, and it gives some ideas on the contagion and spread:

  • Total number of people tested on board (crew and guests) : 3,063
  • Number that tested positive for Covid-19: 634 (21%)
  • Number showing symptoms: 306
  • Number not showing symptoms : 328
  • Number of positive people who died: 7 (1%)

Now, a look at the cross section of the age brackets who tested positive:

  • Six were aged 0–19 years,
  • 152 were aged 20–59 years
  • 476 were 60 years and older

2000180-f1_thmb.gif

So, based on these numbers, it appears that the mortality rate was around 1%, not higher like the media has been reported. Plus Dr. Fauchi also said he felt it was around 1% the other day. Also, many who actually test positive (close to half) don't show symptoms.

What's interesting is that more of the older age groups were asymptomatic versus the younger ones.

DP age.jpg

They took measures fir social distancing and containment on board.  That’s not the numbers you get just letting it run its course.  You will note that the ratios compared to the flu WHILE taking containment measures are worse.  

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Here’s something that doesn’t makes sense to me.

In Italy, the infection rate for the flu...in a vaccinated society... is about 9% per flu season. Or an -average- of 866,000 per month.

Why are the Covid-19 numbers so low there relatively speaking to the flu if Covid-19 is significantly more contagious?  25,000 total cases in Italy to date 6 weeks in.

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2 hours ago, Malsua said:

Look at flu season.  It tracks exactly to when school is open.   While children may not get sick and die due to Sars-Cov2, they CAN get it.  They will then pass it to each other and take it home to their parents and grandparents.  The one single thing that best can shut this thing down is probably school closings.  Everywhere.

 

I agree a Dr friend of mine once described children as "walking petri dishes"

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1 hour ago, xXxplosive said:

Just heard some disturbing news....my wife tells me she just heard from an associate here in Somerset County that some parents are scheduling home parties with parents and kids now the they are out of school....Bazaar !!!!

Somewhere around half the population is below average.  In every way.  Some are just plain not so smart. 

Whats interesting to me is that this AM we had on NBC (I HATE TV and its rarely on anything broadcast), and the guy that does meet the press (dowd?) said they did a poll and said that republicans were 30% more likely to ignore the guidelines then democrats.  Given the demographics and politics in NJ, Id suspect their data is faulty. 

The reality though is that doctors, nurses, pharmacists, grocers, delivery people, they are going to be the lifeblood of our existence for the next while.  And they have kids too.  And those kids need to be taken care of too.  So to some extent, there will have to be an extension of interactions beyond the nuclear family unit for many folks.  Its just reality.  Pull those folks out of the game and things get worse because everything will already be stretched thin and services, money flow, etc. will be slow to non existant.  Not sure of the answer, but there are lots of folks who need a way ahead for keeping their kids learning and safe. 

In some school districts, teachers and essential staff who have to be in, are allowed to bring their children.  Im thinking that because these folks will be generally together in a classroom, same as they would in a house, and have limited outside contact, the risk is managable. 

In the end, its all about understanding, evaluating, aggregating and mitigating risk.  And being reasonably practical about the risks - not eight item deep uncontrolled speculation on the risks. 

But having social events is just plain irresponsible. Its just plain stupid.  It propagates risk unnecessarily.

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I just dont get the whole "the world is ending" hyperbole... 

Not to sound insensitive..

Worse case scenario... a bunch of old people die and clog up the healthcare system for a little while. 

We can quarantine for a little while to help flatten out the infection curve.. but there needs to be a realistic appropriate approach here, 99.99% of americas will be just fine even if the virus spreads.

 

 

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49 minutes ago, Sniper said:

The number of infections, I'm sure, is higher than reported. Main reason, minor cases don't get reported. But, dead bodies do...

So, if this is as bad a Raz-o claims, the dead bodies should be laying all over the place.... Are they?

if that's true, then the death rate would be a ton lower. 

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36 minutes ago, 1LtCAP said:

if that's true, then the death rate would be a ton lower. 

That is correct, but it goes even farther.

The media reports infections and deaths as of right now. They don't take into account the lag time of incubation and sickness time, before death. So, someone who dies today actually became infected like two or three weeks ago, maybe more.

So, if they wanted to really report closer numbers, they should report the number of deaths today versus the number of infected a few weeks ago. This is why it's so tough to get accurate numbers until the whole situation passes and the virus dies out. Only then can there be more accurate numbers.

And that's even before trying to calculate the number that were infected and self treated and were never reported. That number can be easily over half more of the reported infections, since 80% of infected never require specific medical intervention.

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30 minutes ago, 1LtCAP said:

if that's true, then the death rate would be a ton lower. 

Yes if there are lots of non severe cases, the R0 goes up but the mortality rate goes down. 

My previous numbers are for a simple population sample. No deaths, no getting better, no natural immunity, no measures taken. 

But the reason why there is great concern is that we can’t mitigate it with a vaccine yet, and the growth rate without intervention is bad. 

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This is basically a new germ that causes the common cold. A small percentage of people who catch it have an idiosyncratic reaction where they react poorly and die, probably based on some synergism between poor health and unlucky genetics. like with pretty much every other germ.

Heck, this might not even be a new germ. The bat eaters might have brought it forth before when we were less hypervigilant. 

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1 minute ago, Handyman said:

This is basically a new germ that causes the common cold.

There are 7 known coronaviruses. The first 4 are the common cold. The fifth was SARS. The sixth was MERS, The seventh is the current Covid.

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1 hour ago, JackDaWack said:

I just dont get the whole "the world is ending" hyperbole... 

Not to sound insensitive..

Worse case scenario... a bunch of old people die and clog up the healthcare system for a little while. 

We can quarantine for a little while to help flatten out the infection curve.. but there needs to be a realistic appropriate approach here, 99.99% of americas will be just fine even if the virus spreads.

 

 

How about quarantining everyone over 65 and those younger with health risk factors?

If those are the people primarily at risk, protect them.  Steve Hilton asked the same question.  Its a good question. Why are we shutting down the economies of every major country on earth when there appears to be a better way.  The more people who are healthy that get this and become immune...spelled... v-a-c-c-i-n-a-t-e-d .... the fewer there will be to catch and transmit it next time.

Or, we could just destroy the economy and commit 10s of millions of people to be wards of the state.

or maybe thats the plan.

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4 minutes ago, Kevin125 said:

How about quarantining everyone over 65 and those younger with health risk factors?

If those are the people primarily at risk, protect them.  Steve Hilton asked the same question.  Its a good question. Why are we shutting down the economies of every major country on earth when there appears to be a better way.  The more people who are healthy that get this and become immune...spelled... v-a-c-c-i-n-a-t-e-d .... the fewer there will be to catch and transmit it next time.

Or, we could just destroy the economy and commit 10s of millions of people to be wards of the state.

That's a really good point, I was thinking about that earlier. Since it appears to hit the elderly the hardest, just get them to sequester. Many over 65 are retired anyway, so it's not like they have to go anywhere on a daily basis.

Then, educate all the kids/grandkids who are the petri dish carriers that they MUST stay away from Grandma for a month or so. Would definitely be a heck less costly and not crash the economy for EVERYONE under 60.

Then, anyone in between, who already knows they are medically compromised, can make the decision to self quarantine or take the risk of wandering around in public and possibly get infected.

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Coming out of France this morning.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/14/anti-inflammatory-drugs-may-aggravate-coronavirus-infection

NSAIDS May make Coronavirus WORSE and lead to bad outcomes.  NSAIDs are Nonsteroidal Anti-inflammatory drugs.  Aspirin, Ibuprofen, Naproxen, Advil, Modtrin.  Steroids may also be a factor, if you're on one for something.

The bottom line, don't take anything to stop the fever if you can help it.  The body warms up for a reason.

If you must take something, take Acetominophen/Tylenol.

I'm not a doctor, nor do I play one on TV, this is not medical advice.  Closest I came was working for an MD in a Doctors office for 4 years.

I will also add that the article stated everything with weasel words, but the French health system is pretty good and they have some smart doctors.  I'd pay attention.

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9 hours ago, Sniper said:

That is correct, but it goes even farther.

The media reports infections and deaths as of right now. They don't take into account the lag time of incubation and sickness time, before death. So, someone who dies today actually became infected like two or three weeks ago, maybe more.

So, if they wanted to really report closer numbers, they should report the number of deaths today versus the number of infected a few weeks ago. This is why it's so tough to get accurate numbers until the whole situation passes and the virus dies out. Only then can there be more accurate numbers.

And that's even before trying to calculate the number that were infected and self treated and were never reported. That number can be easily over half more of the reported infections, since 80% of infected never require specific medical intervention.

and those are my points. they're hyping it as being more deadly than the normal flu......but if we find out that "X" number of people had it but didn't report it or test for it......i'm suspecting that it will turn out to be about the same as the flu

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1 hour ago, Malsua said:

Coming out of France this morning.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/14/anti-inflammatory-drugs-may-aggravate-coronavirus-infection

NSAIDS May make Coronavirus WORSE and lead to bad outcomes.  NSAIDs are Nonsteroidal Anti-inflammatory drugs.  Aspirin, Ibuprofen, Naproxen, Advil, Modtrin.  Steroids may also be a factor, if you're on one for something.

The bottom line, don't take anything to stop the fever if you can help it.  The body warms up for a reason.

If you must take something, take Acetominophen/Tylenol.

I'm not a doctor, nor do I play one on TV, this is not medical advice.  Closest I came was working for an MD in a Doctors office for 4 years.

I will also add that the article stated everything with weasel words, but the French health system is pretty good and they have some smart doctors.  I'd pay attention.

Makes sense actually.  While ibuprofen seems like a good idea, the swelling is an important process of the immune system when dealing with an infection... it's not at all like an injury.  

Tylenol is just a painkiller and fever reducer, not an anti inflammatory. It's always been the go to med for flu with a fever. 

I havent seen the research on it, especially the flu, but there is a thought that a fever can reduce the severity and length of certain illness. It's a natural response to infection, and has evolved this way for a purpose. I just wouldn't let it got over 101 unchecked.

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4 minutes ago, xXxplosive said:

Office Manager's desk in wife's office was broken into over the weekend and Clorox Wipes were stolen.....it's on !!!!

I think I already mentioned that last week they were stealing the cart wipes out of the Newton ShopRite vestibule, so they moved them inside to the customer service desk. Seems like months ago.

Also, Steve Doocy lives in NJ. This morning on F&F he said he went to his local Shoprite Sunday AM at 7:05. The store opened at 7. When he got there every single cart was already in the store. The meat counter was empty. So he asked his employee friend Bob if they were out of meat. And Bob said no, the people were emptying the display cases faster than they could replenish them.

The hoarders are going to make things much worse if they don't cut it out.

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3 minutes ago, xXxplosive said:

They're scared by the media hype.....but it affects all of us....had to order cat food on line cause the stores were empty and the cat wants his dinner too...…….

Hahahaha! We have four. Just replenished the litter last Wednesday on a hunch. We have prepper stores of cat food so there's no problem here.

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1 hour ago, 1LtCAP said:

and those are my points. they're hyping it as being more deadly than the normal flu......but if we find out that "X" number of people had it but didn't report it or test for it......i'm suspecting that it will turn out to be about the same as the flu

We will never know.  If I were to get a cough and fever, I think ah nuts I got a cold or the flu.  I rest, drink a lot of water and get better.   Did I have the Corona virus?  No one will ever know.  So unless the come up with a test that identifies those that recovered, AND test everyone,  these numbers are just flat out guesses.

And I tend to distrust sources whose funding is dictated by inflated numbers.

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13 minutes ago, xXxplosive said:

Food distributor just told me....Red Bank NJ has told all it's restaurants to shut down.

Not true. 

No where is telling restaurants to shut down.. worst case they are told take out only. 

 

You cant just down food services completely.

 

a quick search:

https://www.redbankgreen.com/2020/03/red-bank-coronavirus-covid-19-state-of-emergency/

 

 

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