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gleninjersey

Prep For Quarantine / Pandemic

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19 hours ago, njJoniGuy said:

That's a 6 person smallbore range, even with the current restrictive guidelines!

What time does the match start?? :p

LOL!  I wish I could.  But there are houses 300 feet away to the front of the "range".

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On 4/15/2020 at 10:24 PM, xXxplosive said:

…. all I can say is, this is not ending soon.

@xXxplosive:

I agree....  Five months ago, no one knew that COVID-19 existed. Now the virus has spread to almost every country, most likely infecting millions of people and killing over 150,000 people whom we know about, and many more whom we do not.  It has crashed economies and broken health-care systems, exceeded capacity of many hospitals and emptied public spaces. It has separated people from their workplaces and their friends. It has disrupted modern society on a scale that most living people have never witnessed.  Similar to either WWII or the 9/11 attacks, this pandemic has already indelibly imprinted itself upon the nation’s psyche.

Yet, everyone wants to know when this virus pandemic will end and we can get back to normal.   But that is not the right question. The right question is: How do we continue?  The U.S. needs to learn that lesson, but President Trump is still behaving as if he is engaged in a brief skirmish rather than a protracted siege.  Life as most people knew it cannot fully return yet.  People have not understood that this is not about the next couple of weeks..... this is about the next two years.

As the rest of the U.S. comes to terms with the same restless impermanence, it must abandon the question “When do we go back to normal?”  We are beginning to see that life as most people knew it cannot and will not fully return.  Normal is and always has been relative for different people and includes immense disparities in what different Americans of different races, age and health experience as normal.  Regardless of what States decide to regulate, it will be the general public’s personal decisions on what they are willing to do moving forward.  I seriously doubt that many people will choose to participate in large gathers of people at dense public venues, such as beaches, amusement parks, sporting or cultural events, let alone cruises.  Social distancing, wearing PPE, frequent disinfecting and cleaning and remote working, will all be aspects of our daily routines for the foreseeable future.  I am not saying that we cannot slowly and reasonably stagger the re-opening of certain businesses, but it has to be done in a careful and thoughtful manner, while continuing to employ many of the protective measures that have proven to be effective.

The COVID-19 virus pandemic is not a hurricane or a wildfire, nor is is comparable to 9/11.  Those disasters were and are confined in time and space and followed an understandable transition sequence from recovery to rebuilding.  This virus pandemic will require a continued defensive posture of resistance that includes all of the protective measures that we have been following.  From what I have read, this virus will linger through 2020, and across the world for the next 18-24 months.  If we drop these precautions prematurely, then we risk a resurgence of the virus spreading, which will then require reinstating all of the shut-downs that were previously imposed by state and local governments.

It is time to acknowledge and accept that there really is no going back. The only way out of this pandemic is to go through it...., past this turbulent spring, across an unusual and possibly deceiving summer lull, into a tenuous fall where we may see a resurgence of the virus and then into an unsettled year beyond.  Ultimately, we will have to continue to endure our collective hardships as we await broader and more accurate and expedient testing, as well as the expedited clinical trials for the development and administering of an effective and safe vaccine. Best of luck to all of us....

AVB-AMG

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55 minutes ago, AVB-AMG said:

@xXxplosive:

I agree....  Five months ago, no one knew that COVID-19 existed. Now the virus has spread to almost every country, most likely infecting millions of people and killing over 150,000 people whom we know about, and many more whom we do not.  It has crashed economies and broken health-care systems, exceeded capacity of many hospitals and emptied public spaces. It has separated people from their workplaces and their friends. It has disrupted modern society on a scale that most living people have never witnessed.  Similar to either WWII or the 9/11 attacks, this pandemic has already indelibly imprinted itself upon the nation’s psyche.

Yet, everyone wants to know when this virus pandemic will end and we can get back to normal.   But that is not the right question. The right question is: How do we continue?  The U.S. needs to learn that lesson, but President Trump is still behaving as if he is engaged in a brief skirmish rather than a protracted siege.  Life as most people knew it cannot fully return yet.  People have not understood that this is not about the next couple of weeks..... this is about the next two years.

As the rest of the U.S. comes to terms with the same restless impermanence, it must abandon the question “When do we go back to normal?”  We are beginning to see that life as most people knew it cannot and will not fully return.  Normal is and always has been relative for different people and includes immense disparities in what different Americans of different races, age and health experience as normal.  Regardless of what States decide to regulate, it will be the general public’s personal decisions on what they are willing to do moving forward.  I seriously doubt that many people will choose to participate in large gathers of people at dense public venues, such as beaches, amusement parks, sporting or cultural events, let alone cruises.  Social distancing, wearing PPE, frequent disinfecting and cleaning and remote working, will all be aspects of our daily routines for the foreseeable future.  I am not saying that we cannot slowly and reasonably stagger the re-opening of certain businesses, but it has to be done in a careful and thoughtful manner, while continuing to employ many of the protective measures that have proven to be effective.

The COVID-19 virus pandemic is not a hurricane or a wildfire, nor is is comparable to 9/11.  Those disasters were and are confined in time and space and followed an understandable transition sequence from recovery to rebuilding.  This virus pandemic will require a continued defensive posture of resistance that includes all of the protective measures that we have been following.  From what I have read, this virus will linger through 2020, and across the world for the next 18-24 months.  If we drop these precautions prematurely, then we risk a resurgence of the virus spreading, which will then require reinstating all of the shut-downs that were previously imposed by state and local governments.

It is time to acknowledge and accept that there really is no going back. The only way out of this pandemic is to go through it...., past this turbulent spring, across an unusual and possibly deceiving summer lull, into a tenuous fall where we may see a resurgence of the virus and then into an unsettled year beyond.  Ultimately, we will have to continue to endure our collective hardships as we await broader and more accurate and expedient testing, as well as the expedited clinical trials for the development and administering of an effective and safe vaccine. Best of luck to all of us....

AVB-AMG

IMO.....at least through August or further....summer vac. done.

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14 minutes ago, gleninjersey said:

OMG....They are crazy.  I stopped after they showed what it was and she dunked into the cup.

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that probably DOES NOT taste like chicken.

 

I don’t wanna know what that tastes like. 

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14 hours ago, AVB-AMG said:

@xXxplosive:

I agree....  Five months ago, no one knew that COVID-19 existed. Now the virus has spread to almost every country, most likely infecting millions of people and killing over 150,000 people whom we know about, and many more whom we do not.  It has crashed economies and broken health-care systems, exceeded capacity of many hospitals and emptied public spaces. It has separated people from their workplaces and their friends. It has disrupted modern society on a scale that most living people have never witnessed.  Similar to either WWII or the 9/11 attacks, this pandemic has already indelibly imprinted itself upon the nation’s psyche.

Yet, everyone wants to know when this virus pandemic will end and we can get back to normal.   But that is not the right question. The right question is: How do we continue?  The U.S. needs to learn that lesson, but President Trump is still behaving as if he is engaged in a brief skirmish rather than a protracted siege.  Life as most people knew it cannot fully return yet.  People have not understood that this is not about the next couple of weeks..... this is about the next two years.

As the rest of the U.S. comes to terms with the same restless impermanence, it must abandon the question “When do we go back to normal?”  We are beginning to see that life as most people knew it cannot and will not fully return.  Normal is and always has been relative for different people and includes immense disparities in what different Americans of different races, age and health experience as normal.  Regardless of what States decide to regulate, it will be the general public’s personal decisions on what they are willing to do moving forward.  I seriously doubt that many people will choose to participate in large gathers of people at dense public venues, such as beaches, amusement parks, sporting or cultural events, let alone cruises.  Social distancing, wearing PPE, frequent disinfecting and cleaning and remote working, will all be aspects of our daily routines for the foreseeable future.  I am not saying that we cannot slowly and reasonably stagger the re-opening of certain businesses, but it has to be done in a careful and thoughtful manner, while continuing to employ many of the protective measures that have proven to be effective.

The COVID-19 virus pandemic is not a hurricane or a wildfire, nor is is comparable to 9/11.  Those disasters were and are confined in time and space and followed an understandable transition sequence from recovery to rebuilding.  This virus pandemic will require a continued defensive posture of resistance that includes all of the protective measures that we have been following.  From what I have read, this virus will linger through 2020, and across the world for the next 18-24 months.  If we drop these precautions prematurely, then we risk a resurgence of the virus spreading, which will then require reinstating all of the shut-downs that were previously imposed by state and local governments.

It is time to acknowledge and accept that there really is no going back. The only way out of this pandemic is to go through it...., past this turbulent spring, across an unusual and possibly deceiving summer lull, into a tenuous fall where we may see a resurgence of the virus and then into an unsettled year beyond.  Ultimately, we will have to continue to endure our collective hardships as we await broader and more accurate and expedient testing, as well as the expedited clinical trials for the development and administering of an effective and safe vaccine. Best of luck to all of us....

AVB-AMG

Once you know the penetration of the virus, once you know the TRUE death rate, once you have valid workable treatments - you get back to a normal.

Then when  we release the cure we have, life really starts to get passed the modified normal....the the status quo new normal.

No more buffets? Etc....Yay !  Pertri dishes...

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8 minutes ago, xXxplosive said:

Gonna be a while......don't kid yourself.....I was told, no large gatherings, ie. Ballgames etc. until 2022.....I dunno.

I'm.not kidding myself and i am not normalcy biasing.....  you didn't read my whole post...and you missed a key part.  Its tinfoil...but it may just fit

 

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1 hour ago, USRifle30Cal said:

Then when  we release the cure we have, life really starts to get passed the modified normal....the the status quo new normal.

Probably just in time for someone to have a pangolin for breakfast and unleash a new plague upon us.

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18 minutes ago, silverado427 said:

People are starting to protest the stay at home order 

We are sadly approaching a tipping point....at just about that time....the 'miracle' cure will be announced...again tin foil i know 

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2 minutes ago, USRifle30Cal said:

the 'miracle' cure will be announced...again tin foil i know 

In my opinion, there are already several miracle cures available. They don't work for everyone, but they work for the majority, better performance than most seasonal flu shots.   They are working on slapping together a new formula, with trials and everything,  so they can rebrand and charge 100x more than very available, proven and inexpensive hydrochloroquin.

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17 minutes ago, Zeke said:

The organizer was arrested and charged for violating the stay at home order.

Aught to make for a good first-amendment case.   Agree with her reasons or not but everyone should be uncomfortable if the government can shut down non-violent protests. 

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8 minutes ago, voyager9 said:

Aught to make for a good first-amendment case.   Agree with her reasons or not but everyone should be uncomfortable if the government can shut down non-violent protests. 

“They” can’t.  This was for appearances-or “Respect my Authoritay!” as Cartman would put it.

Look for this to get thrown out of court, or pled-down to jaywalking

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34 minutes ago, Scorpio64 said:

In my opinion, there are already several miracle cures available.

I’ve heard the vaccine is ready to go, but it won’t be released until scientists figure out how to make it cause autism.

:-)

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Speaking of the vaccine, what assurance does anyone have that it will be 100% effective?

I believe in the last fully documented flu season the flu vaccine was around 38% effective. Hardly a show stopper.

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2 minutes ago, 45Doll said:

Speaking of the vaccine, what assurance does anyone have that it will be 100% effective?

I believe in the last fully documented flu season the flu vaccine was around 38% effective. Hardly a show stopper.

My wife and I were just having this discussion a bit ago. 
 

 

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1 hour ago, 10X said:

I’ve heard the vaccine is ready to go, but it won’t be released until scientists figure out how to make it cause autism.

:-)

Nice one centurion.  

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32 minutes ago, 45Doll said:

Speaking of the vaccine, what assurance does anyone have that it will be 100% effective?

I believe in the last fully documented flu season the flu vaccine was around 38% effective. Hardly a show stopper.

Tinfoil ON....

 

 

 Because when you design something you make sure you can shut it off....

TINFOIL OFF

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43 minutes ago, 45Doll said:

Speaking of the vaccine, what assurance does anyone have that it will be 100% effective?

I believe in the last fully documented flu season the flu vaccine was around 38% effective. Hardly a show stopper.

The flu vaccine less effective because it's a guess at what it vaccinated against. This would target this specific Corona virus so efficacy against this virus would be much higher. Kind of like the measles vaccine. 

Even if it were only 38%  effective, it'd cut down on mortality and hospitalization rate by more than one third. Which would make it a much less disruptive disease. 

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4 minutes ago, raz-0 said:

the measles

Measles, that's a German word, right.....  The German measles.  That's what we called it when I was a kid.  Oh crap, I'm 1/16th German, I'm being racist against my own white people.  Maybe I should call it Rubella instead.  Even calling it the measles may be racist because it's a German word.

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2 minutes ago, Scorpio64 said:

Measles, that's a German word, right.....  The German measles.  That's what we called it when I was a kid.  Oh crap, I'm 1/16th German, I'm being racist against my own white people.  Maybe I should call it Rubella instead.  Even calling it the measles may be racist because it's a German word.

German measles is rubella. 

Measles is rubeola.

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20 hours ago, AVB-AMG said:

As the rest of the U.S. comes to terms with the same restless impermanence, it must abandon the question “When do we go back to normal?”  We are beginning to see that life as most people knew it cannot and will not fully return.  Normal is and always has been relative for different people and includes immense disparities in what different Americans of different races, age and health experience as normal.  Regardless of what States decide to regulate, it will be the general public’s personal decisions on what they are willing to do moving forward.  I seriously doubt that many people will choose to participate in large gathers of people at dense public venues, such as beaches, amusement parks, sporting or cultural events, let alone cruises.  Social distancing, wearing PPE, frequent disinfecting and cleaning and remote working, will all be aspects of our daily routines for the foreseeable future.  I am not saying that we cannot slowly and reasonably stagger the re-opening of certain businesses, but it has to be done in a careful and thoughtful manner, while continuing to employ many of the protective measures that have proven to be effective.

The COVID-19 virus pandemic is not a hurricane or a wildfire, nor is is comparable to 9/11.  Those disasters were and are confined in time and space and followed an understandable transition sequence from recovery to rebuilding.  This virus pandemic will require a continued defensive posture of resistance that includes all of the protective measures that we have been following.  From what I have read, this virus will linger through 2020, and across the world for the next 18-24 months.  If we drop these precautions prematurely, then we risk a resurgence of the virus spreading, which will then require reinstating all of the shut-downs that were previously imposed by state and local governments.

I certainly don't think it's going to be "everything normal in a couple of months" - but I also don't think it's going to be quite as dire as you predict above. There's a very smart researcher at Stanford (holds both medicine & economic degrees) who is testing the general public in sections of California with the new antibody (blood) test. Results from the first region appear to show that FAR more people have this than all previous models were based on, and therefore the death rate is MUCH lower than predicted (more akin to a very bad flu bug, but... but still admittedly bigger than a flu problem, because there's NO vaccine). He's been questioning some of these measures taken for weeks now... not as a fringe-type naysayer, but as a credible voice questioning the assumptions - simply because we haven't known the number infected and therefore couldn't possibly know the "death rate". Now that he believes the death rate is much lower than first thought, he's presenting the idea of ramping up this antibody (blood) testing QUICKLY across the country, assessing each area's healthcare capacity, and that will enable us to get some areas back to "normal" coupled with keeping known highly vulnerable populations quarantined. (Unfortunately, the ability to do contract tracing at this point is out of the question). Anyway, I won't prattle on here - let's go to the videotape(s)!  

This is the 1st video that was out a couple weeks ago. Probably best to start here:

Here's the 2nd tape (once the testing results were compiled):

I would also recommend 2 other videos by this same interviewer:

  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Da8ZspnvR2s - this one is with an economist, who gives a good explanation of why it's hard to simply "turn the economy back on" like a faucet.
  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JZzjKLuAU6w - and this one is with journalist Kim Strassel of the Wall Street Journal on the topic of the media and Trump. It has a lot of overlap onto the COVID-19 topic. Most relevantly to ME... I've been wondering, what about the "other deaths" - deaths of despair (suicide, overdose, etc.) and deaths from medical procedures delayed? The interviewer is asking, I think, really good, fair questions about this! We are modelling COVID-19 right and left and up and down - and rightly so! - but where's the data modelling for all these other lives at risk? How can we make good decisions when we don't know what ALL the risks are? 

I think these 4 interviews take a bit of viewing time, but they're worth it. They provide a good representation of where there's some well-reasoned "pushback" against the current approach and indeed a path forward for returning to normal.

 

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