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It's true that at the moment the flu has had / is having a much greater effect on our health than the corona virus. And the future progress of that virus is unknown.

However the psychological 'panic' that's created in some environments can and does have real world economic effects regardless of the real health results.

For example, here's a case of a U.S. business stopped in its tracks. Multiply this out (how many times?) and the effects can become significant.

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It is just like the warnings of a bad hurricane coming. Be prepared, if it doesn't turn out to be as bad, you just eat what you have saved up. I like the idea of dried food stores but unless you are on the move, canned goods will be less expensive to stock up on. Do they taste as good, no. I like the idea of having a water purifier and a spare filter for it. Face it, if it turns that bad you will never have enough food supplies to go on for years. You can get past the point where other people have run out and be able to defend what stores you have but eventually will run out. Hunting will only go so far as the game will be hunted out will so many people depending on game to supply their needs.

In the long run I think(hope) this is another warning but I do think eventually a virus will be the demise of man. This time around I think there will be shortages that will make life inconvenient.  For me Rx prescriptions would be a concern. Insurance companies will not give you advanced prescriptions in most cases. If we had to pay cash and prescriptions were available it would cost me over $1500 per month. My daughters medicine is over $20,000 per month. Cancer meds are not cheap.

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16 minutes ago, rtquig said:

If we had to pay cash and prescriptions were available it would cost me over $1500 per month.

Wait, you said don't save cash, because it will be useless... Will Walgreens take your gold and silver for your Rxs??

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14 minutes ago, rtquig said:

I have gold, silver, ammo, and food. In a true SHTF paper currency will be useless. I don't expect there to be a functional Ealgteens6in this situation. Think out of the box. 

Were you living here when Hurricane Sandy came through? Which of the few stores or gas stations that were open accepted your gold and silver for food/supplies?

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17 minutes ago, Sniper said:

Were you living here when Hurricane Sandy came through? Which of the few stores or gas stations that were open accepted your gold and silver for food/supplies?

Paper currency is definitely valuable in the short term, I cant imagine until shit got real bad people would bother with precious metals and bartering... it's hard to predict in any scenario when inflation makes cash useless, where a loaf of bread cost $1k

Realistically, in SHTF scenarios food will be worth more than gold... 

I'd rather stockpile long term food storage solutions than gold silver etc.. I actually like silver alot.. its lower value make it easier to exchange.. especially if you just collect coins prior to 64... and people know its real(for most the part)

 

If you stocked up on gold and silver, which isnt cheap, it will get you no where near the amount of food you can buy today with the dollar.. and let's be real what else would you be bartering for? 

Dont expect to barter for guns and ammo, in fact I would do everything possible now to avoid people in general. Your emergency response plan should be self sufficiency as a priority.. anything else is extra for when the masses die off.

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Yes, I was here, working Emergency Management for the municipality I worked at. That WAS NOT a SHTF situation.i had spate gas, generator etc... I have Federal Emergency training..

You can state your point until the sun goes down. You do it your way and I will do it my way. If your point is the only way, good luck to you.

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5 minutes ago, JackDaWack said:

Paper currency is definitely valuable in the short term, I cant imagine until shit got real bad people would bother with precious metals and bartering...

Realistically, in SHTF scenarios food will be worth more than gold... 

I'd rather stockpile long term food storage solutions than gold silver etc.. I actually like silver alot.. its lower value make it easier to exchange.. especially if you just collect coins prior to 64... and people know its real(for most the part)

 

If you stocked up on gold and silver, which isnt cheap, it will get you no where near the amount of food you can buy today with the dollar.. and let's be real what else would you be bartering for? 

Dont expect to barter for guns and ammo, in fact I would do everything possible now to avoid people in general.

All valid points. Silver is easier to barter with than gold IMO. 

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More people have died from the flu in the US alone:

"At least 14,000 people have died and 250,000 have already been hospitalized during the 2019-2020 flu season. More than 26 million Americans have fallen ill with flu-like symptoms.” CDC Feb 21, 2020

than the Caronavirus has killed worldwide:

"As of February 23, 2020, there were 76,936 reported cases in mainland China and 1,875 cases in locations outside mainland China (1). There have been 2,462 associated deaths worldwide" CDC Feb 23, 2020

Get a flu shot.
Wash your hands.
Turn off the news.

3rSDuy7.jpg

That’s not to say you should have a couple weeks worth of supplies on hand. Anything can happen to disrupt a supply again.

But the Caronavirus nonsense is ridiculous!

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I think we're mixing apples and oranges a little bit in the thread.

SHTF scenarios like Sandy, blizzard in October, race riots and pandemics require the preparations that have been described. We've had all of those since 1960 and the currency didn't lose it's value during those episodes.

The collapse of the U.S. dollar (value) is something different. When the paper becomes worthless in the eyes of citizens, bartering kicks in and real goods are substituted for currency. Gold and silver of course can come into play. (Survivors: A Novel of the Coming Collapse)

We won't necessarily get both at the same time. We could have one or the other variety separately, depending on longevity and resolution.

 

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11 minutes ago, xXxplosive said:

Monmouth County NJ Hosp. testing one person for the virus now according to "Patch".

Should this start headin' South....I won't be accepting my mail, who knows where those darn advertisements have been.

Yes, this news broke this morning.  Patient is at Bayshore Hospital in Holmdel.  In my area.  Will be interesting to see if they are ultimately confirmed of having the virus and what their travel/contact history is.  

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A SHTF to me is something on the scale of the 1918 pandemic. Even the Hurricanes we have had affected a small percentage of our population. I had no electric for 8 days after Sandy. It was a pain but not an STHF situation. Bay water had risen in my yard and flooded everyone across the street from me.  Hurricanes in the Gulf states can be called a SHTF situation. When I was in my teens, there were riots in Newark, 20 minutes from my house. It didn't affect us at all beside losing work for two weeks.

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42 minutes ago, High Exposure said:

More people have died from the flu in the US alone:

 

But the Caronavirus nonsense is ridiculous!

 

Except flu attacks the upper lungs.

Covid 19 attacks the lower lung

The fatality rate on 80YO+ is 15%.   I suppose it will help clear out social security and medicare.

The fatality rate starts up after 50.  It's essentially zero for children.  Healthy adults have a low CFR but it's still about 10x flu.

China does not quarantine 100 million people and shut down their economy for the flu.  There are no vaccines, there are few therapies other than supplemental O2 and symptom relievers.  It also seems to offer little or no immunity to-reinfection once the case is cleared.  Medical reports out of China indicate that even people who have cleared it may have lifetime lung damage.  Want to take your chances with that?  Catch it, clear it, wear a bottle of O2 the rest of your life?  No thanks.

This shit is insanely easy to catch.   One woman had a 35 second exposure in an elevator to someone with a mild case.  She caught it, her children wearing masks did not.

This is not to say we should all run around like our hair is on fire.  It's saying we should be aware that there will be supply chain disruptions and we should be prepared to be self-segregated in our homes for a period of time.

As a note, that period of time may not be until the next flu season if this thing gets tamped down due to heat and humidity and roars back next fall.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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52 minutes ago, Malsua said:

 

Except flu attacks the upper lungs.

Covid 19 attacks the lower lung

The fatality rate on 80YO+ is 15%.   I suppose it will help clear out social security and medicare.

The fatality rate starts up after 50.  It's essentially zero for children.  Healthy adults have a low CFR but it's still about 10x flu.

China does not quarantine 100 million people and shut down their economy for the flu.  There are no vaccines, there are few therapies other than supplemental O2 and symptom relievers.  It also seems to offer little or no immunity to-reinfection once the case is cleared.  Medical reports out of China indicate that even people who have cleared it may have lifetime lung damage.  Want to take your chances with that?  Catch it, clear it, wear a bottle of O2 the rest of your life?  No thanks.

This shit is insanely easy to catch.   One woman had a 35 second exposure in an elevator to someone with a mild case.  She caught it, her children wearing masks did not.

This is not to say we should all run around like our hair is on fire.  It's saying we should be aware that there will be supply chain disruptions and we should be prepared to be self-segregated in our homes for a period of time.

As a note, that period of time may not be until the next flu season if this thing gets tamped down due to heat and humidity and roars back next fall.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Both are lower respiratory illnesses... both cause pneumonia which leads to death...  I have not heard anything related upper/lower lungs.. and the virus is only a few months old, to be talking about life time damage is a bit much right now i think even if it is a possibility. 

 

But look at prior years stats...

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2016-2017.html

 

People keep talking about the flu not that bad in comparison.... I have no idea what numbers they use but the ones in that link tell a very different story.

My biggest issue is that NO ONE know how many people are infected with mild symptoms from coronavirus.. as reported over 80% have mild conditions that wont even be reported... the mortality rate they are saying at 2% could be completely wrong...

 

Hell we say anywhere where from 9million to 45 million get the flu every year... how do you get an accurate mortality rate from that?

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54 minutes ago, Malsua said:

 

Except flu attacks the upper lungs.

Covid 19 attacks the lower lung

The fatality rate on 80YO+ is 15%.   I suppose it will help clear out social security and medicare.

The fatality rate starts up after 50.  It's essentially zero for children.  Healthy adults have a low CFR but it's still about 10x flu.

China does not quarantine 100 million people and shut down their economy for the flu.  There are no vaccines, there are few therapies other than supplemental O2 and symptom relievers.  It also seems to offer little or no immunity to-reinfection once the case is cleared.  Medical reports out of China indicate that even people who have cleared it may have lifetime lung damage.  Want to take your chances with that?  Catch it, clear it, wear a bottle of O2 the rest of your life?  No thanks.

This shit is insanely easy to catch.   One woman had a 35 second exposure in an elevator to someone with a mild case.  She caught it, her children wearing masks did not.

This is not to say we should all run around like our hair is on fire.  It's saying we should be aware that there will be supply chain disruptions and we should be prepared to be self-segregated in our homes for a period of time.

As a note, that period of time may not be until the next flu season if this thing gets tamped down due to heat and humidity and roars back next fall.

I’m not saying to go out and lick the walls on NJ transit trains.

I’m not saying I want to catch it and if I do it won’t be a big deal.

I’m saying, take normal - sane - precautions because you are more likely to catch (and die from) the flu than the Coronavirus in this country and no one is starting threads about prepping for flu season.

Everyone should already have enough supplies in their home to last at least a week or two comfortably for normal run-of-the-mill emergencies. Bottled water, rice/pasta, canned meals, MREs, and some snivel items to cheer you up - lickies (hard candies, lollipops) chewies (granola bars, protein bars), hot sauce, drink powders (Gatorade, koolaid, lemonade, iced tea).

Be aware, be vigilant, be clean, make smart travel choices, and most of all don’t panic.

Don’t buy into the media hype.

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7 minutes ago, JackDaWack said:

Both are lower respiratory illnesses... both cause pneumonia which leads to death...  I have not heard anything related upper/lower lungs.. and the virus is only a few months old, to be talking about life time damage is a bit much right now i think even if it is a possibility. 

 

But look at prior years stats...

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2016-2017.html

 

People keep talking about the flu not that bad in comparison.... I have no idea what numbers they use but the ones in that link tell a very different story 

The epidemiologist I was listening to said that Covid-19 seems to be more prevalent deeper into the sacs and works its way out until lung function is severely compromised.  It's a different behavior as it seems to attach to smaller exhaled droplets than regular flu which is why it's easier to catch.  Small droplets float further.

The lung damage bit was about glassine nodules that were developed during infection which scars the lungs.  Scarring does not repair.

For what it's worth, the first US patient has died.  Only 15,999 more to go to surpass flu.

15 cases, 1 death?   What ratio is that?   Flu is about .0055 on average, year to year.

1/15 = .066    Hmm.    2-3 times easier to catch, order of magnitude more deadly...naw, nothing to worry about here.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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It ain’t time to make a beeline for the bunker. 60-ish cases in the USA, and one fatality. 

HE is correct, you should already have food/water/hygiene preps in place for ANY disaster. COV-19 shouldn’t make that much of a difference in how you stay ready. 

Take NORMAL flu precautions...wash your hands, and practice good sanitary/hygiene. It ain’t Ebola, keep your wits about you, and don’t be taken in by the hype. Keep your head out of your ass. 
Panic is your enemy...and so are those who are trying to make you panic. 

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25 minutes ago, Malsua said:

The epidemiologist I was listening to said that Covid-19 seems to be more prevalent deeper into the sacs and works its way out until lung function is severely compromised.  It's a different behavior as it seems to attach to smaller exhaled droplets than regular flu which is why it's easier to catch.  Small droplets float further.

The lung damage bit was about glassine nodules that were developed during infection which scars the lungs.  Scarring does not repair.

For what it's worth, the first US patient has died.  Only 15,999 more to go to surpass flu.

15 cases, 1 death?   What ratio is that?   Flu is about .0055 on average, year to year.

1/15 = .066    Hmm.    2-3 times easier to catch, order of magnitude more deadly...naw, nothing to worry about here.

 

My point is... people seem to be comparing confirmed numbers of the corona virus with theoretical numbers for the Flu.. that is a ridiculous assessment for comparing its overall affects on the population.

Its only an "order of magnitude" more deadly if you use that basis of comparison. If you look at the ACTUAL data for those who show the illness, symptoms, are confirmed, hospitalized and die from it... you are no where near something "worse". 

 

Compare table2 in the link I posted to the current coronavirus stats, because those are the comparable stats. 

 

Keep in mind 80% of the people infected with the coronovirus will never go to a hospital or doctor to be counted, because their symptoms are so mild.

 

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3 minutes ago, JackDaWack said:

Its only an "order of magnitude" more deadly if you use that basis of comparison. If you look at the ACTUAL data for those who show the illness, symptoms, are confirmed, hospitalized and die from it... you are no where near something "worse". 

Let's also remember that a majority of the fatalities occurred in China, where the citizens are generally malnourished, have been breathing very toxic air every day for many years, and have that lovely socialized healthcare.

I bet the number of people in China that die from the common flu or a cold is also higher compared to the US.

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3 hours ago, rtquig said:

You can state your point until the sun goes down. You do it your way and I will do it my way. If your point is the only way, good luck to you.

No, I'm trying to understand where you are in your thinking.

1) Do you think this WuFlu will turn into the 1918 pandemic?

2) At what point do you think paper currency will be worthless, and gold/silver will be the currency of choice. Who is going to accept it? We live in the same area, so I'm asking to see where you expect to go for your necessary supplies.

3) I think, if it's the SHTF situation you're talking about, where cash is useless, and gold/silver is the base of trading, we'll be in a Mad Max situation, and I'm not sure how many people will even want to be alive at that point.

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38 minutes ago, Scorpio64 said:

Let's also remember that a majority of the fatalities occurred in China, where the citizens are generally malnourished, have been breathing very toxic air every day for many years, and have that lovely socialized healthcare.

Not only do they breathe toxic air, but many smoke, too, so that's a DOUBLE wammy to the lungs, even before getting the virus.

1 hour ago, Malsua said:

For what it's worth, the first US patient has died.  Only 15,999 more to go to surpass flu.

15 cases, 1 death?   What ratio is that?   Flu is about .0055 on average, year to year.

1/15 = .066    Hmm.    2-3 times easier to catch, order of magnitude more deadly...naw, nothing to worry about here.

I don't think you can compute it that way. For one, the person that died probably picked up the virus multiple weeks ago, so using existing cases against current deaths, there's a time element that has to be adjusted.

Plus, as Jack says, there are many people who never got diagnosed, and stayed home, so the true number of cases is probably a lot higher, which will make the CFR much lower.

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1 minute ago, Sniper said:

Not only do they breathe toxic air, but many smoke, too, so that's a DOUBLE wammy to the lungs, even before getting the virus.

I don't think you can compute it that way. For one, the person that died probably picked up the virus multiple weeks ago, so using existing cases against current deaths, there's a time element that has to be adjusted.

Plus, as Jack says, there are many people who never got diagnosed, and stayed home, so the true number of cases is probably a lot higher, which will make the CFR much lower.

We will only ever know the R-nought and age specific CFR after a few years pass.

There are most definitely more people that caught it, never reported it, and got better.  Some could have died too without a Covid diagnosis.  There's no way to ever really know.

There's also the fact that the CDC is only testing(at least prior to the last few days) cases where people were in direct exposure to known cases or were in the hot zone.  There could be 10s of thousands of mild or asymptomatic cases that we just simply have no data for.  If that is the case, this bug is indeed just another flu and will probably just be added to the list.  Preliminary findings suggest it is a bit more deadly.  Shrug.  Dismissing it as "just the flu" at this time is foolish.   We need to take it seriously until we know the facts. 

Most of us here are not 70+ where the really fatal CFR rates seem to be, so if it goes wide, we may only be affected mildly except perhaps elderly parents or other relatives.   Mine are all gone, and I'm in the rising risk age group(50s), so it probably won't be that big of a deal for me.

I'm more worried about supply chain just for the sheer annoyance of it and how it will drag the economy and my investments down.

 

 

 

 

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13 minutes ago, Sniper said:

No, I'm trying to understand where you are in your thinking.

1) Do you think this WuFlu will turn into the 1918 pandemic?

2) At what point do you think paper currency will be worthless, and gold/silver will be the currency of choice. Who is going to accept it? We live in the same area, so I'm asking to see where you expect to go for your necessary supplies.

3) I think, if it's the SHTF situation you're talking about, where cash is useless, and gold/silver is the base of trading, we'll be in a Mad Max situation, and I'm not sure how many people will even want to be alive at that point.

1. I have no idea if this virus will turn in a 1918 style pandemic.

2. I don't know when if this happens paper currency will be worthless, but look at the stock market drop while only a few in the U. S. have the virus.  After several months I don't expect there to be supplies available to buy, maybe some for barter. I and family members have a rally point to defend and have supplies for a while, then it will turn to mob rule. Your guess is as good as mine how that can pan out. From my Federal training, I know how the supply will dwindle out and what utilities will provide and approx. how long to expect services to last.

3. I agree with your point #3. Remember, this I consider as a remote last case scenario.  I don't expect or know how far this virus will play out.

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