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gleninjersey

Prep For Quarantine / Pandemic

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2 hours ago, JHZR2 said:

Lots of good points here. 
 

The interesting one is debts.  I didn’t live through the 70s, and wasn’t a major purchaser in the 80s, but I do remember vaguely as a child when mortgages were 15%+. 
 

If prices for goods increase with inflation, and you can buy something for $1 today that will cost $2 next year as they inflate money to pay for stimulus, it seems almost worth it to incur the debt, because you can buy an item with intrinsic value of something, and pay it off with cheaper dollars in the future. 
 

im not buying real estate, and am not sure that holds because RE may drop with the recession that is looming.  
 

But if we are expecting inflation, and can leverage no/low interest credit, I kind of have to wonder if the premise on debt is correct. Or is there a game that one could play to make out on durable items (since this is a firearms forum, let’s use firearms as an example) that results in a net benefit.  I’m generally a Dave Ramsey guy, so down on debt, big on investment.  But cash savings will be decimated if inflation runs rampant... and while now and the future may be a stock buying opportunity, timing it is tough.  So, maybe the answer is to buy needed/desired durable goods?

we already started planting for the year - do need to get more peppers and tomatoes...

I was born in the 60s, I remember the 70s.  My dad had a pretty good job, but we were still hand to mouth.  The only nice thing was a saving account that paid 8%.   I put in my $5 every month and at the end of the year I had like $65.  It was magic.    Mortgages must have been a pain as I know my dad must have re-fi'd half a dozen times as rates fell in the 80s.  Of course, he'd suck out every penny of equity they'd give him.  He bought that house in Atwater Ohio in 1972, 40 acres, farm house, 2 big barns, 3 out buildings for 42k I believe.    I believe he still owed the full amount when he died in 2005.    His wife(not my mother) sold the house and the remaining 2 acres for 200k in 2017.   They kept selling off bits every few years. 

I expect inflation for a little while as these stimulus bills flood liquidity everywhere, but I expect a HUGE crash at some point.    This will mean a deflationary period where the dollar appreciates in value and in effect doubles or triples your notional interest rate.   Defaults will become normal and the 2008 crash will look like happy days.  If it takes you, in effect, 3 dollars to pay back 1 dollar, you'll just shrug and walk away.  This is why you want to be debt free.   Keep paying it off with ever-inflating funny money, but when the music stops, you want a chair to sit in(having it paid off).   The easiest way to play that game is to not play that game and eliminate the risk long before the inflation bubble pops.

 

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15 hours ago, Mrs. Peel said:

And, although the malaria drugs have a decent safety profile - they're not without some risks. In some of these early COVID-19 trials, there were some patients that died of sudden cardiac arrest. It seems that the malaria drugs can do that for some patients with a certain congenital condition that impacts a part of their heartbeat - called a "long QT"  (a delayed time for the heart to recharge after its beat)....... Although early anecdotal reports look promising for some patients, there may be COVID-19 patients who are not good candidates because their risk of sudden cardiac arrest is even greater than their risk of severe respiratory issues!

It all comes down to how sick you are from Covid-19.

If you are having minor symptoms, ride it out.  Why would you even be in a hospital?  Draining needed resources for those who are much sicker and much more in need of medical attention.

On the other hand, if you are in very bad shape, already in the hospital and your odds of not pulling through in the next 24-48 hours are high then I don't think you or the doctors should be worrying about possible negative side effects.  Because in a few short hours you won't be around.

Should they do more controlled test to make sure it's usefull and the side effects don't outweight the benefits for those who have minor or less serious symptoms to keep the illness from escalating.  Absolutely.   

But anyone who's condition is critical should be allowed to have the drug.  Now.  

 

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20 minutes ago, gleninjersey said:

It all comes down to how sick you are from Covid-19.

If you are having minor symptoms, ride it out.  Why would you even be in a hospital?  Draining needed resources for those who are much sicker and much more in need of medical attention.

On the other hand, if you are in very bad shape, already in the hospital and your odds of not pulling through in the next 24-48 hours are high then I don't think you or the doctors should be worrying about possible negative side effects.  Because in a few short hours you won't be around.

Should they do more controlled test to make sure it's usefull and the side effects don't outweight the benefits for those who have minor or less serious symptoms to keep the illness from escalating.  Absolutely.   

But anyone who's condition is critical should be allowed to have the drug.  Now.  

 

I saw a stat that around 50% fatality rate for CoViD19 patients that go on ventilators.  It seems an acceptable risk at that point.  But I'm not sure how early you need to administer the Hydrocloroquine to be effective.

But hasn't this been used for malaria for years? If it is acceptable risk for malaria, why not CoViD19 when it is serious or critical? With informed consent.

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