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Trenton Protest in the making, put up or shut up!

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13 minutes ago, dilbert1967 said:

That will be a daunting task.  The people of NJ prefer to be sheep.  The article below says it all.  I don't' know how reliable the pollster is but a 71% approval rating will be difficult to overcome. 

https://savejersey.com/2020/04/poll-64-of-new-jerseyans-support-publicly-shaming-social-distance-violators/

 

I heard that yesterday (I think) and almost crashed my truck.

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33 minutes ago, dilbert1967 said:

That will be a daunting task.  The people of NJ prefer to be sheep.  The article below says it all.  I don't' know how reliable the pollster is but a 71% approval rating will be difficult to overcome. 

https://savejersey.com/2020/04/poll-64-of-new-jerseyans-support-publicly-shaming-social-distance-violators/

 

71%?????

Read "The Patch" statewide, I see 71%  dis-approval! Facebook's neighborhoods are railing against this Sonnabitch.

 

Gov Bucky Beaver.png

Gov Bucky Beaver.jpg

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12 minutes ago, Downtownv said:

71%?????

Read "The Patch" statewide, I see 71%  dis-approval! Facebook's neighborhoods are railing against this Sonnabitch.

 

Gov Bucky Beaver.png

Gov Bucky Beaver.jpg

So much for the reliability of the pollster.  It seems difficult to get reliable and "sourced" news in this state.  Save Jersey is a blog, the guy that runs it is a practicing attorney.  All of the large newspapers swing to the left.  The only "fair" news outlet that comes to mind is NJ 101.5.  I'll check out "The Patch".

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25 minutes ago, Downtownv said:

71%?????

Read "The Patch" statewide, I see 71%  dis-approval! Facebook's neighborhoods are railing against this Sonnabitch.

 

Gov Bucky Beaver.png

Gov Bucky Beaver.jpg

Are you sure you read the patch one correctly? I just cked it because I’m flabbergasted , but the results line up with the Monmouth poll.

 

Then again, I highly doubt the authenticity of polls. 

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1 minute ago, Zeke said:

Are you sure you read the patch one correctly? I just cked it because I’m flabbergasted , but the results line up with the Monmouth poll.

 

Then again, I highly doubt the authenticity of polls. 

I'm not talking about polls, I'm talking about the hatred of this tyrant by the PEOPLE. Read comments on any atricle where he is in it.

The People can't stand him, the pollsters are a bunch of azzhats. Take the pulse of the people...

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3 minutes ago, Downtownv said:

I'm not talking about polls, I'm talking about the hatred of this tyrant by the PEOPLE. Read comments on any atricle where he is in it.

The People can't stand him, the pollsters are a bunch of azzhats. Take the pulse of the people...

Totally concur 

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51 minutes ago, raz-0 said:

Here's the thing. You know when this thing will end? The second that the politicians run out of money.  Right now, they think they can pay for their rules, and they have done so while amassing more power than before and tossing out the bits of the state constitution they don't like. They really don't care if you live or die other than that it will be bad press for them and potentially negatively impact revenues and campaign contributions. 

And all of the above is clouded by the fact that this disease is problematic. It's more than likely less dangerous than the flu, but significantly more contagious and that combined with a hospitalization rate high enough that when combined with those other two factors means we are running hospitals in population dense areas at 100% or more capacity. 

What we are seeing now is that the numbers are rolling in and there is a genuine point to debate. 

Life saving policy caused economic upheaval. Politicians could mitigate this by running the printing presses. It gets them good publicity and they look likethe domin they did something good. 

However, you now see that the policy is impacting supply chains. Most importantly food supply chains. Starvation has a lot higher mortality rate than this disease, and starving people like hanging politicians more than voting for them. 

Right now, staying home seems like a viable option. But you have to imagine the world 3 months... 6 months.. a year from now. 

Right now in a very real way we are setting up the situation where we have more money than food to buy it with. This leads to inflation of food prices, which we are already seeing. Part of that money chasing food is government bailout. That is going to run out and then you have inflated prices on scarce food with 10-20% unemployment? Right now, we have policy based on the notion that this disease would be worse than it is and that most people who were out of work would go back to working when shelter in place was done. A lot of them won't be. That reality is sinking in and policy is going to have to adjust.

Greenday can sniff his own farts and feel smug all he wants. But the reality is you have Trump saying we need to open up or we will have a pandemic and a depression and possibly food riots because this is not a functional model for long term behavior of human society. Then you have.. lets say all the democratic governors in the northeast who say that the orange monster is a tyrant that will kill us all and is advocating an apocalypse. While also planning THE EXACT SAME PROCESS being advocated by Trump. There's only minor differences, and the motivating reasons are exactly the same. But the publicity game is all about people pretending that if it weren't for the other guy, we could have gotten through this without harm. 

And everyone wants to pretend this shit has something to do with an inherently superior set of ideals. It's not. Dairy farmers are dumping milk because their customer base and volume shifted radically and milk spoils faster than you can shift that process. Once you get past schools and restaurants closing and trying to pretend that one side wouldn't have done that (because both sides did), ideology doesn't come into it. Then look at the yeast situation. Demand shot through the roof. Manufacturing can actually make a shit ton more yeast. But they can't get enough of the right packaging, and without the right packaging the yeast doesn't live long enough to traverse the supply chain. You can pretend the problem is because the packaging comes from India. The real problem is that there is no secondary source of packaging that isn't also affected by the pandemic and has the capacity to meet that demand. Unless you change policy to allow more people to work on that problem, be it here, India, wherever, you won't meet the increased demand. And create scarcity and inflation. 

It isn't the trump bucks hitting people's bank accounts that is going to cause inflation. That's mostly filling a hole created by lack of employment. The uncontrollable path to inflation is going to be all the imbalances in supply and demand. Where an american was spending say 10% of their income on food, and now will be spending 30% in part due to less income and in part due to competition for scarce supply. 

And what about all the issues with rent and mortgages. Rent especially. You aint paying, they can't evict you, and you have lots of people being dumped on the street the first day it is legally possible.And they all start competing for what housing will have them. And what happens when you get competition for a scarce resource?  And it won't just be shuffling of tenants. A lot of those vacancies won't be back on the market. Definitely not for people who didn't pay then, but a lot will be taken off the market if fiscally viable, go into foreclosure because the economic damage was to significant to the landlord,  aren't where the demand is because the main employers in the area didn't survive this economic mess, etc. 

If something isn't done to mitigate it, which is why despite the theatrics and finger pointing, you have diametrically opposed leaders going through the EXACT SAME PROCESS to figure out when they have to cry uncle and reopen. 

This is because once Greenday gets done with his fart sniffing, and AVB realizes he's a lot more financially well off than most of the US and thus isn't facing the same problems, that the choice ISN'T how many corpses is it worth to save people from boredom, but how many dead sick people is it worth having to prevent stacking corpses from political unrest, or what the exchange rate is between covid-19 deaths and half the country slowly starving to death. It's going to be a choice between two flavors of shit sandwich. Not do no harm and fuck it all up. 

And to be fair, there are people here who will be saying we should never have taken measures in the first place and be borderline psychotic about it. They aren't right either as they are pointing at numbers that are the result of HAVING DONE SOMETHING when they say it isn't bad enough to justify this. The thing is the majority of people making those claims are viewed as idiots. There's lots of people pushing the Trump fucked it all up and all democrats are saints narrative being treated as if they are the most reasonable people in the room rather than liars who are also full of shit. 

This ride aint going to be fun, and neither party has a plan that will skip it. Everyone is trying to figure out how to make it shortest and everyone is working with estimates on how bad each bad thing is with spreads that are vast. It'd be nice if the monkeys would stop flinging poo while doing it, but pretending it isn't what it is on both sides of the aisle is bullshit. 

My wife was questioning why I asked her to pick up large amounts of rice and dried beans starting in January. We have been adding to the larder gradually since then. I had the foresight to see that eventually this was going to be a big problem for the US and sadly I was not mistaken.

Right now is going to seem pleasant once in 7-8 months the 18-20 million people who are unemployed no longer have an income. Homeless starving masses can and will present a danger to society as a whole. Due to proper planning the wife and I and a few family members will be neither starving, homeless or victims.  I hope I'm am completely wrong but I doubt it.

I agree there will be food shortages and a great deal of inflation perhaps even hyper inflation similar to what took place in Germany in the early 30's. The government will attempt to help but it will not be enough. As I'm writing this Murphy was criticizing  McConnell suggesting that some states will have to file for bankruptcy. Murphy's response was that the state will just cut services to make ends meet if the Fed doesn't print more money to bail out the states. That will be a big help cutting services. The bozo is clueless.

I hope everyone has a long term plan for dealing with this problem because this will not be over in a few months. We'll be lucky if it's over in a few years.

 

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And shortly after writing my giant screed about demonizing one group vs another for the exact same thing. 

Here's a politico article 

https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2020/04/21/southern-governors-create-a-covid-19-coalition-and-experts-fear-a-perfect-storm-1278753?fbclid=IwAR0qufIsGJCZiQNzTX1pE5TI9exU1gOjZmvFjlFlsPqpEayfbXYUkM-TwC8&utm_source=fark&utm_medium=website&utm_content=link&ICID=ref_fark

 

Summary is basically coalition of southern states banding together to develop a plan to reopen are a bunch of hicks who will kill us all, and that the norther coalition of governors banding together to develop a plan to reopen are noble saviors. Because they are democrats and thus not stupid hicks. 

Sorry fat, stupid, diabetic hicks. Because the difference between NJ's 27.7% obesity rate and Georgia's 31% obesity rate is so vast it will prevent the apocalypse. 

I mean they have numbers.. Numbers from SCIENTISTS. Except their numbers are from a group started by the very unbiased.... The Atlantic. Oh shit they aren't unbiased. Not even a little, sorry. 

And the article claims that georgia, according to the numbers form the atlantic have only tested one hundredth of one percent of their population. The article was written yesterday.. by smart people.. who can't fucking do math all the time, because while Mississippi does have a testing rate of 1.7%, Geogra is at 0.8%. The very not apocalyptic new jersey is at a whopping  2%. NY leads the pack at 3%. But trust the smart journalists. Because their testing rate for the northeast coalition is also wrong. I just think they don't know how to calculate percentages. Or maybe they don't know how to look up population. 

But They definitely said making a plan to reopen geogria is bad. Georgia with about 1% of the population tested. Making a plan to reopen NJ is definitely good. That is despite the fact that 

- GA has about a 28% positive test rate compared to NJ's nearly 50% positive rate on tests. 

-That unless GA is rolling back testing their daily rates of new positives are dropping a lot. (peaked on 04-14, and has fallen off significantly. NJ also peaked 04-14 and has.. well fell off a teeny bit and is holding a plateaue.

-The vast majority of infections are in 6 counties out of 159 covering more land mass. The most population dense counties. Using similar metrics (i.e. most infected county plus all counties own to 1/3 of the peak infected county) for NJ, you have 9 counties out of 21 and betwen 1/3 and 1/2 of new jersey land mass. 

Does it mean that it is safe to reopen georgia? No. A number of counties without a large number of infections have a a high per-capita infection rate. If you are turning symptomatic people away from testing in those counties due to lack of medical infrastructure, then you may be masking a hazard. This however IS an answerable question. 

New Jersey on the other hand has more data. If it is possibly not safe to reopen GA, it is DEFINITELY not safe to reopen NJ. It may be possible to alter policy safely in both places. But even if you doubled all of GAs numbers and weighted it towards "oh shit people be dying" they'd still be better and more spread out than NJ. ANd have one major airport in the whole state instead of 3 of the busiest in the country, the NE corridor, every major east coast interstate, significantly more utilized mass transit, being sandwiched between NYC and Philly, etc. 

But no.. NE = brilliant non-trumpian strategists. SE=stupid hicks. 

 

 

 

 

 

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16 minutes ago, raz-0 said:

And shortly after writing my giant screed about demonizing one group vs another for the exact same thing. 

Here's a politico article 

https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2020/04/21/southern-governors-create-a-covid-19-coalition-and-experts-fear-a-perfect-storm-1278753?fbclid=IwAR0qufIsGJCZiQNzTX1pE5TI9exU1gOjZmvFjlFlsPqpEayfbXYUkM-TwC8&utm_source=fark&utm_medium=website&utm_content=link&ICID=ref_fark

 

Summary is basically coalition of southern states banding together to develop a plan to reopen are a bunch of hicks who will kill us all, and that the norther coalition of governors banding together to develop a plan to reopen are noble saviors. Because they are democrats and thus not stupid hicks. 

Sorry fat, stupid, diabetic hicks. Because the difference between NJ's 27.7% obesity rate and Georgia's 31% obesity rate is so vast it will prevent the apocalypse. 

I mean they have numbers.. Numbers from SCIENTISTS. Except their numbers are from a group started by the very unbiased.... The Atlantic. Oh shit they aren't unbiased. Not even a little, sorry. 

And the article claims that georgia, according to the numbers form the atlantic have only tested one hundredth of one percent of their population. The article was written yesterday.. by smart people.. who can't fucking do math all the time, because while Mississippi does have a testing rate of 1.7%, Geogra is at 0.8%. The very not apocalyptic new jersey is at a whopping  2%. NY leads the pack at 3%. But trust the smart journalists. Because their testing rate for the northeast coalition is also wrong. I just think they don't know how to calculate percentages. Or maybe they don't know how to look up population. 

But They definitely said making a plan to reopen geogria is bad. Georgia with about 1% of the population tested. Making a plan to reopen NJ is definitely good. That is despite the fact that 

- GA has about a 28% positive test rate compared to NJ's nearly 50% positive rate on tests. 

-That unless GA is rolling back testing their daily rates of new positives are dropping a lot. (peaked on 04-14, and has fallen off significantly. NJ also peaked 04-14 and has.. well fell off a teeny bit and is holding a plateaue.

-The vast majority of infections are in 6 counties out of 159 covering more land mass. The most population dense counties. Using similar metrics (i.e. most infected county plus all counties own to 1/3 of the peak infected county) for NJ, you have 9 counties out of 21 and betwen 1/3 and 1/2 of new jersey land mass. 

Does it mean that it is safe to reopen georgia? No. A number of counties without a large number of infections have a a high per-capita infection rate. If you are turning symptomatic people away from testing in those counties due to lack of medical infrastructure, then you may be masking a hazard. This however IS an answerable question. 

New Jersey on the other hand has more data. If it is possibly not safe to reopen GA, it is DEFINITELY not safe to reopen NJ. It may be possible to alter policy safely in both places. But even if you doubled all of GAs numbers and weighted it towards "oh shit people be dying" they'd still be better and more spread out than NJ. ANd have one major airport in the whole state instead of 3 of the busiest in the country, the NE corridor, every major east coast interstate, significantly more utilized mass transit, being sandwiched between NYC and Philly, etc. 

But no.. NE = brilliant non-trumpian strategists. SE=stupid hicks. 

 

 

 

 

 

Liberals = racist 

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1 hour ago, brucin said:

My wife was questioning why I asked her to pick up large amounts of rice and dried beans starting in January. We have been adding to the larder gradually since then. I had the foresight to see that eventually this was going to be a big problem for the US and sadly I was not mistaken.

Right now is going to seem pleasant once in 7-8 months the 18-20 million people who are unemployed no longer have an income. Homeless starving masses can and will present a danger to society as a whole. Due to proper planning the wife and I and a few family members will be neither starving, homeless or victims.  I hope I'm am completely wrong but I doubt it.

I agree there will be food shortages and a great deal of inflation perhaps even hyper inflation similar to what took place in Germany in the early 30's. The government will attempt to help but it will not be enough. As I'm writing this Murphy was criticizing  McConnell suggesting that some states will have to file for bankruptcy. Murphy's response was that the state will just cut services to make ends meet if the Fed doesn't print more money to bail out the states. That will be a big help cutting services. The bozo is clueless.

I hope everyone has a long term plan for dealing with this problem because this will not be over in a few months. We'll be lucky if it's over in a few years.

 

I don't think you can have a valid plan. for what is coming. I don't think you can get hyperinflation unless it is a brief period before TEOTWAWKI. TO get something like post WWI inflation in Germany or zimbabwe style inflation, you need to have a great disparity in competing economies, and there aren't countries escaping these issues. You might see it if say the US was seriously considering sheltering in place for 18 months while china said fuck it, if they die they die.  But as I pointed out. We don't have one side considering staying shut forever and the other opening up tomorrow. We have both sides trying to figure out just how early they can open and the NE dems screaming orange man bad because if they were honest and we opened up what we could... it wouldn't be most of the NE. It definitely wouldn't be NY and NJ. And the last thing they want is Trump being vindictive on top of good sense and making their bad situation worse. Even if they kept it honest, showing red state flyover country get back to normal while populous urban shitholes fester is at it's core a very anti-democrat message because said urban shit holes are very blue. 

Hence the poo flinging. It's covering up that the NE dems are really discussing opening up too early by all models for the shitstorm going on here. 

What is likely on the horizon fiscally is following up the LAST lost decade to to a massive recession with ANOTHER lost decade. Which I don't think we have seen anywhere, and thus don't have an idea of what the challenges of such are. Probably with a sharp, although possibly brief uptick in homelessness and food insecurity. 

This is an example of where I tend to not be in line with a strict conservative political line. Fund SNAP, avoid fraud and abuse, but fund it. I don't mind paying taxes for services that provide me with a useful shared resource. Keeping pissed off hungry people off of my lawn is a useful service. 

However, you can print money for SNAP all you like. if it just increases the pool of money chasing scarce food supply, all you get is inflation, not more fed people. The same number of hungry people an siphoning cash out of other parts of the economy is not really a good thing. 

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23 minutes ago, raz-0 said:

I don't think you can have a valid plan. for what is coming. I don't think you can get hyperinflation unless it is a brief period before TEOTWAWKI. TO get something like post WWI inflation in Germany or zimbabwe style inflation, you need to have a great disparity in competing economies, and there aren't countries escaping these issues. You might see it if say the US was seriously considering sheltering in place for 18 months while china said fuck it, if they die they die.  But as I pointed out. We don't have one side considering staying shut forever and the other opening up tomorrow. We have both sides trying to figure out just how early they can open and the NE dems screaming orange man bad because if they were honest and we opened up what we could... it wouldn't be most of the NE. It definitely wouldn't be NY and NJ. And the last thing they want is Trump being vindictive on top of good sense and making their bad situation worse. Even if they kept it honest, showing red state flyover country get back to normal while populous urban shitholes fester is at it's core a very anti-democrat message because said urban shit holes are very blue. 

Hence the poo flinging. It's covering up that the NE dems are really discussing opening up too early by all models for the shitstorm going on here. 

What is likely on the horizon fiscally is following up the LAST lost decade to to a massive recession with ANOTHER lost decade. Which I don't think we have seen anywhere, and thus don't have an idea of what the challenges of such are. Probably with a sharp, although possibly brief uptick in homelessness and food insecurity. 

This is an example of where I tend to not be in line with a strict conservative political line. Fund SNAP, avoid fraud and abuse, but fund it. I don't mind paying taxes for services that provide me with a useful shared resource. Keeping pissed off hungry people off of my lawn is a useful service. 

However, you can print money for SNAP all you like. if it just increases the pool of money chasing scarce food supply, all you get is inflation, not more fed people. The same number of hungry people an siphoning cash out of other parts of the economy is not really a good thing. 

I agree funding SNAP and making it available to everyone who needs it should be a top priority. As should vigorously prosecute anyone who attempts to defraud the system.

I'll admit I'm no economist so the comparison to Germany in the 30's was just my speculation. On the otherhand so was my estimate in mid February that we would see 50'000 deaths in the US.

I agree that both sides are trying to use this for political gain. Some will open up too fast and others are trying to see who can close down the most stuff for the longest time. It's all pretty sad.

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