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45Doll

Just How Bad Is The Ammo Shortage?

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I was browsing around this afternoon trying to locate some ammo for a friend when I came across this page at AmmoSeek.com.

It sounds worse than I even thought. What I saw this afternoon (or should I say didn't see) seems to bear that out.

Also, I noticed AmmoSeek has redesigned their website. Seems to work pretty well. I used to use it all the time before the low price glut hit about what, two-three years ago? But when the glut was on no searching around was really necessary.

 

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12 minutes ago, 45Doll said:

I was browsing around this afternoon trying to locate some ammo for a friend when I came across this page at AmmoSeek.com.

It sounds worse than I even thought. What I saw this afternoon (or should I say didn't see) seems to bear that out.

Also, I noticed AmmoSeek has redesigned their website. Seems to work pretty well. I used to use it all the time before the low price glut hit about what, two-three years ago? But when the glut was on no searching around was really necessary.

 

I can find ammo if I need it, its expensive but its there.

I'm not sure why they are downplaying the last shortage... it was equally miserable for a few years, expensive and spotty availability.. I couldn't even find magazines for popular guns. 

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I recently heard from a friend in the business that availability will tighten down the road and production lines will not ramp up like they did after the last glut we had for a while.  supply is being eaten away and higher caliber ammo will be hit the hardest down the line

 

if looking for 06-308-6.5 etc, get it

 

 

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9 minutes ago, RUTGERS95 said:

I recently heard from a friend in the business that availability will tighten down the road and production lines will not ramp up like they did after the last glut we had for a while.  supply is being eaten away and higher caliber ammo will be hit the hardest down the line

 

if looking for 06-308-6.5 etc, get it

 

 

Why though 

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12 minutes ago, RUTGERS95 said:

I recently heard from a friend in the business that availability will tighten down the road and production lines will not ramp up like they did after the last glut we had for a while.

Is that because manufacturers were considered "non-essential", so they shut down everything in the middle of everyone panicking again?

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Just like every time, 9mm and .223/5.56 will be the first to get production volume dedicated. 

It's pretty damn scarce right now across the board. 

 

9 minutes ago, Zeke said:

Why though 

Nobody who wasn't going to increase capacity before the rush is going to increase capacity unless demand is sustained. With the low ammo prices prior to this, lots of manufacturers were concerned that they had overexpanded. 

The more resources it takes to make and the more niche it is, the later it will be addresses in producing product. 

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4 minutes ago, raz-0 said:

Just like every time, 9mm and .223/5.56 will be the first to get production volume dedicated. 

It's pretty damn scarce right now across the board. 

 

Nobody who wasn't going to increase capacity before the rush is going to increase capacity unless demand is sustained. With the low ammo prices prior to this, lots of manufacturers were concerned that they had overexpanded. 

The more resources it takes to make and the more niche it is, the later it will be addresses in producing product. 

I find this counter intuitive in an election year. I figured cray cray starting late September early October 

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raz nails it

 

also look at 22lr supply.  there was such a glut that people were buying delivered .02 a round.  I remember people here scoffing at rem thunderbolt at that price and now it's 30-35 a brick of 500.  22lr will not get any support until the higher margin lines are taken care of

ammo won't get back to normal for 9-12 mos is what I'm told but we'll see

remember, 1k 9mm was 160 delivered, 556 AE was 250 delivered and 308 was cheap

bear in mind, all online ammo challenges have won and been shot down too

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33 minutes ago, Zeke said:

I find this counter intuitive in an election year. I figured cray cray starting late September early October 

In case you hadn't noticed, We have a bit of a thing going on that has folks concerned about governments both failing to keep order and becoming authoritarian monstrosities. So the panic is now. 

Lots of ammo makers expanded after the 2012 panic and were regretting it in the last year. If you noticed a bunch of new brands of bulk ammo, that's due to manufactures renting out capacity.

Right now, they are short materials to feed the machines and people to run them. Until those are solved there will be no more capacity brought on line.

Even when the machines are at 100% you won't see more capacity for a bit as they build up the war chest to weather the next storm. 

22lr capacity won't be built up because it has high cost to bring on line and low margin and requires more skilled labor. 

 

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I placed an order at TSUSA for identical product on February 21, and then again on April 22. Aside from the huge shipping delay the price went up 13.1%

Looking at the timing of the (hopefully) 'end' of the virus peak, but given that we're heading into an uncertain November election I don't see this shortage getting any better. The closer we get to the election those who don't think they have enough, or those who hoard, will keep buying up what's out there.

And if somehow Biden (or his replacement) gets elected all bets are off. The gun market will evaporate as well.

 

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2 hours ago, 45Doll said:

I placed an order at TSUSA for identical product on February 21, and then again on April 22. Aside from the huge shipping delay the price went up 13.1%

Looking at the timing of the (hopefully) 'end' of the virus peak, but given that we're heading into an uncertain November election I don't see this shortage getting any better. The closer we get to the election those who don't think they have enough, or those who hoard, will keep buying up what's out there.

And if somehow Biden (or his replacement) gets elected all bets are off. The gun market will evaporate as well.

Come October, we'll see more panic buys just because people think all guns will be made illegal the second a Democrat gets elected. Seems to happen every election year.

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I heard an interesting podcast, comparing ammo to toilet paper. They’re both sold out now but the manufacturers are not really in a position to expand capacity (hiring, tooling, more shifts) because even though the demand is high the usage is not keeping up. 
 

so people are stockpiling and when the panic subsides we’ll have gluts of ammo and TP and unless we shoot (and shit) a LOT we will all stop buying those things, at least temporarily, and the mfrs will have to idle their equipment or sell at a loss

 

if I were trying to stay in business in the long term I might not be trying to increase my capacity now either. I know that whatever I can get out the door is going to be sold. 

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I haven't been an ammo buyer for months, until I walked into my local FFL on Saturday.  Scored a case of Federal Hydra Shok 9mm 124gr for $200.  Afterwards he said he didn't realize it was all JHP self defense...

 

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36 minutes ago, mustang69 said:

I haven't been an ammo buyer for months, until I walked into my local FFL on Saturday.  Scored a case of Federal Hydra Shok 9mm 124gr for $200.  Afterwards he said he didn't realize it was all JHP self defense...

 

If you bought a thousand round case of this for $200, you hit the jackpot. That's 75% off!

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31 minutes ago, RUTGERS95 said:

dems are not winning in november

It doesn't matter. Every election year, it happens just in case it is the year where Democrats suddenly do win and decide to ban everything even though it won't be.

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Well,  greenie is not like they don't run on gun buy backs (as if they were theirs/ government to begin with) or on stricter gun control. Joe Biden proudly announced Beto would be his gun control czar and we know what he said he would do.

Should we not believe them?

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3 hours ago, Greenday said:

It doesn't matter. Every election year, it happens just in case it is the year where Democrats suddenly do win and decide to ban everything even though it won't be.

Assault weapons ban of 94 Democrats, which your rapist/war monger/global government lover/socialist pick would disagree. 

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3 hours ago, WP22 said:

Well,  greenie is not like they don't run on gun buy backs (as if they were theirs/ government to begin with) or on stricter gun control. Joe Biden proudly announced Beto would be his gun control czar and we know what he said he would do.

Should we not believe them?

2008 - Obama will take our guns!

2009-2012 - Obama didn't take our guns.

2012 - Obama will take our guns!

2013-2016 - Obama didn't take our guns.

Even when he had majorities in the House and Senate, he made no effort to take all our guns. This is America. No one will try more than a half-assed effort that they know will fail to take our guns.

2 hours ago, Ray Ray said:

Assault weapons ban of 94 Democrats, which your rapist/war monger/global government lover/socialist pick would disagree. 

And yet you could still buy rifles, you could still get handguns, you could still get shotguns. You could still enable yourself to fire lead thousands of feet per second. You could still enable yourself (with training) to hit a target over 1,000 yards away. You could still do just about anything you want. Just like in present day NJ, you could still own a gun easily, get guns easily legally, and do just about whatever you wanted.

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14 minutes ago, Greenday said:

And yet you could still buy rifles, you could still get handguns, you could still get shotguns. You could still enable yourself to fire lead thousands of feet per second. You could still enable yourself (with training) to hit a target over 1,000 yards away. You could still do just about anything you want. Just like in present day NJ, you could still own a gun easily, get guns easily legally, and do just about whatever you wanted.

What?  So, I signed an oath to defend the Constitution so I could only have 10 rounds and a none adjustable stock?  Why are you even here?

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25 minutes ago, Greenday said:

2008 - Obama will take our guns!

2009-2012 - Obama didn't take our guns.

2012 - Obama will take our guns!

2013-2016 - Obama didn't take our guns.

Even when he had majorities in the House and Senate, he made no effort to take all our guns. This is America. No one will try more than a half-assed effort that they know will fail to take our guns.

...

Should we believe Joe Biden or not?

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22 minutes ago, Ray Ray said:

What?  So, I signed an oath to defend the Constitution so I could only have 10 rounds and a none adjustable stock?  Why are you even here?

It's interesting seeing such a difference in attitude between older shooters and younger shooters.

Younger shooters - "All I had to do was pass a background check and get two people to vouch for me saying I'm not insane and won't shoot everyone up, then I can buy all the guns I basically want!"

Older shooters - "I had to pass a background check and have a whole two people say they know me and say I won't shoot people.'

Why am I here? I like shooting guns. It's fun. Target shooting is a great hobby. I don't need a grenade launcher to do it. I don't need to be able to hide a full size rifle under my shirt to do it. And I don't see anyone else who does either. I believe if people want to protect themselves, they should be able to do it. I just don't see why it's a big deal that some accessories which make it too deadly when irresponsibly used aren't allowed.

15 minutes ago, WP22 said:

Should we believe Joe Biden or not?

I believe he's not dumb enough to think he'd ever get a complete gun ban accomplished or would even bother trying. He has no reason to, he doesn't give a shit about guns. Plus it's career suicide for those that try it. The ones that DO propose it on generally just trying to stay relevant. You want to know why Beto said he'd take our guns? Because he had no shot at that point of winning and was just making an outrageous statement to stay relevant. The second a candidate running in primaries for president would say they want to take away our guns is the second they lose their bid. Most Democrats are fine with gun ownership, they just wish people would stop treating them like toys and take them seriously.

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