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Sniper

Second-quarter GDP plunged by worst-ever -32.9% amid virus-induced shutdown

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Now, this is going to leave a mark....  Holey crap....

...."Gross domestic product from April to June plunged 32.9% on an annualized basis, according to the Commerce Department’s first reading on the data released Thursday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a drop of 34.7%.

Still, it was the worst drop ever, with the closest previously coming in mid-1921. 

Neither the Great Depression nor the Great Recession nor any of the more than three dozen economic slumps over the past two centuries have ever caused such a sharp drain over so short a period of time."

Can you say "Depression"?

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3 hours ago, Sniper said:

Can you say "Depression"?

Yeah, I was just looking at that yesterday... it's damn alarming, isn't it? I don't know how any economy can withstand this kind of sustained punishment without imploding. I don't like to be a Negative Nellie, but even I'm thinking that with each week we keep our economy so crippled, we draw closer to the next Great Depression. 

And somehow, I think this one would be worse, because we're a different society. The economic factors might dictate the depression, but  I think it's our societal strength that dictates how we deal with adversity. Today, we have fewer church-goers (even though I'm not religious myself, I think basic religious principle like "love thy neighbor" "brother's keeper" "Golden Rule" etc. provide a useful moral compass for most people in times of trouble), we have far more single-parent households (which are more vulnerable to economic stresses), we're horribly fractured and divided as a nation, etc. Quite frankly, I wonder if the American people could handle it.

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13 minutes ago, Mrs. Peel said:

Yeah, I was just looking at that yesterday... it's damn alarming, isn't it? I don't know how any economy can withstand this kind of sustained punishment without imploding. I don't like to be a Negative Nellie, but even I'm thinking that with each week we keep our economy so crippled, we draw closer to the next Great Depression. 

And somehow, I think this one would be worse, because we're a different society. The economic factors might dictate the depression, but  I think it's our societal strength that dictates how we deal with adversity. Today, we have fewer church-goers (even though I'm not religious myself, I think basic religious principle like "love thy neighbor" "brother's keeper" "Golden Rule" etc. provide a useful moral compass for most people in times of trouble), we have far more single-parent households (which are more vulnerable to economic stresses), we're horribly fractured and divided as a nation, etc. Quite frankly, I wonder if the American people could handle it.

It can't..it will fracture and split into the reds and blues...

 

 

Read peoples republic

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41 minutes ago, Mrs. Peel said:

Yeah, I was just looking at that yesterday... it's damn alarming, isn't it? I don't know how any economy can withstand this kind of sustained punishment without imploding. I don't like to be a Negative Nellie, but even I'm thinking that with each week we keep our economy so crippled, we draw closer to the next Great Depression. 

I follow the financial news pretty close everyday, since I've got a lot out there riding in it. I struggle to make heads or tales of the current situation, it's so far out of the average, it's tough to process.  There's absolutely no historical past reference to the level of this economic meltdown. The GDP numbers, the 40+ million unemployed, the debt levels, the collapse in retail, the coming eviction and foreclosure wave coming, the current and future bankruptcies, etc.... The cascading effects will make heads explode...

There's nothing historically to compare it to, and the ZERO chance we pull out of it.

This ship is going down....

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32 minutes ago, SW9racer said:

Yet the market keeps riding up. I check several times each day, ready to hit the red button.

The market is a terrible indicator of the economy right now, its very disconnected from reality. 

Since this is a manufactured event, its hard to say what it really means. Certainly a "wake up" call for those wanting to keep the country shut down.

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1 hour ago, JackDaWack said:

The market is a terrible indicator of the economy right now, its very disconnected from reality.

To a certain extent, I agree. On the other hand, all of the other very real problems that weigh down our economic engine do remain (like  the high unemployment and shuttered businesses). I saw a great video interview a few months back, I think it was by the Hoover Institute... they had a very bright economist on who made so much sense. He explained why you can't just turn the economy back on like a faucet... and why the longer the economy is crippled, the longer it will take to restart it. I'm no economist (obviously), but I found it to be pretty compelling and quite intuitive really... let's be crazy optimists and say a vaccine is found and starts being given in large quantities sometime in 2021. Ok, fine... what next? He explained that many businesses, like restaurants, will have permanently closed their doors and their former owners may lack the resources (and/or the will) to restart. Sure, that means opportunities for new entrepreneurs. But, those new entrepreneurs will need both resources and time. Time to build the business plan, legally form the business, build/execute the marketing plan, get a loan (if needed), rent business space, hire and train the staff, etc. No matter how you slice it, for most businesses (at least the traditional brick & mortar types), there's an unavoidable time lag just due to that necessary  business launch cycle.   

It left me thinking that if they found a magic cure for COVID-19 tomorrow, this economy couldn't bounce back fully even next year (and FORGET about this year!).  And who knows when we'll have an effective, reliable vaccine in ample quantities? So, as truly heinous as 2020 has been, I do think 2021 has the potential to be far worse. I sooo want to be wrong! It's a very unhappy time for the country - and the world.

 

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For step one, landlords are going to have to be forgiving to some extent. Widespread foreclosures is not a way to go in this. 

You can evict a tenant if you want, but who the heck do you think is going to be in a position to move in when everyone else is broke, too? Do banks really want to carry 100,000 homes that are going to be sitting empty and deteriorating and losing value?

People have complained about deteriorating infrastructure for a long time. Might be time for another WPA type thing. 

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All part of the planned destruction of a Democratic Republic and its capitalism, tolerance, and freedom.   

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2 hours ago, Mrs. Peel said:

Sure, that means opportunities for new entrepreneurs. But, those new entrepreneurs will need both resources and time. Time to build the business plan, legally form the business, build/execute the marketing plan, get a loan (if needed), rent business space, hire and train the staff, etc. No matter how you slice it, for most businesses (at least the traditional brick & mortar types), there's an unavoidable time lag just due to that necessary  business launch cycle.   

But, how many entrepreneurs will be willing to even make that gamble of time, resources and money, when they now see that the government can kill their business indefinitely, with the stroke of a pen and a unconstitutional edict? Based on how I saw businesses screwed over, indiscriminately, there's not enough money in the world to make me start another business.

Look what Murphy did to restaurant owners right before the 4th of July. They got screwed.... twice....

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1 hour ago, W2MC said:

...and this wasn't because of some virus, catastrophe, or disaster.  We did it to ourselves.

This is true, a Recession was way over due for many years, because the business cycle usually only lasts up to like 8 years. Nothing was fixed after 2008, and the excesses and debt levels were just getting larger. My finance guys couldn't explain why the market kept going, except for the tweaking by the FED.  The economy started to head South last Fall, with the Fed help for the overnight Repo market, then the lowering of the Fed Funds rate.

So a Recession was already baked in the cake and coming. The WuFlu just helped jump start it, and will probably turn it into a major Depression.

Problem is, during the last two recessions, the Fed had some room, as interest rates were in the 5% - 6% range, and they lowered them close to 0% to help stabilize the economy. Now, with rates right near 0%, there's no ammo to juice the market and help it....

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9 minutes ago, Sniper said:

My finance guys couldn't explain why the market kept going, except for the tweaking by the FED. 

Trump inspired confidence that America is still strong.  There is no algorithm for that.

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50 minutes ago, Scorpio64 said:

Trump inspired confidence that America is still strong.  There is no algorithm for that.

That was certainly true for 2017. The DOW went up 6K in one year. The market went nuts, even though he didn't do anything administratively, at that point. But, since the beginning of 2018, it's moved sideways. It's basically at the same level it was at 2-1/2 years ago.

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Then when you add these unemployment numbers in this chart to the GDP disaster, you get a pretty good picture of where we are. During the last Recession, the highest week claim total was around 650K. In the last few months, we had weeks exceeding 6 million, other weeks exceeding 4 million. It took two years, back then, to hit 10 million unemployed. This meltdown, we hit  40+ million in a little over 2 months. Over 30+ million are still unemployed today.

And the weekly numbers have started creeping back up the last two weeks, another 1.4 million today....

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7 hours ago, Greenday said:

Should have chopped the finger off and cauterized the wound, putting an end the the COVID stuff months ago. Now we are stretching it out and the entire arm is rotting. 

So George, what's the never ending plague plan? First it was only two weeks to flatten the curve, then don't wear a mask, then, nope, we lied, wear a mask, then ok, open up after cases decline, then 'protestors' and rioting that continue to this day, but they're not the problem, you maskless heathen are, and NOW we HAVE to wait until there is a vaccine? That about right? I also recall your 'experts' saying there would be MILLIONS of dead in the US and UK, and plague afflicted zombies clawing at hospital doors to be hooked up to a ventilator, whilst mass graves of dead victims were bulldozed closed out back.

The left and the media have consistently lied and have only their sick power hungry agenda

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11 hours ago, Heavyopp said:

How do landlords be forgiving when the property tax man has his hand out and doesn't give a rats ass where it comes from?

Maybe they'll just cancel taxes this year after Grandpa Badfinger gets elected. It would be much more efficient than taking people's money and giving it back in $600 increments. 

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8 minutes ago, Handyman said:

It would be much more efficient than taking people's money and giving it back in $600 increments. 

They are not taking people's money.  They are printing new money.  Even worse.

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2 hours ago, Handyman said:

Maybe they'll just cancel taxes this year after Grandpa Badfinger gets elected.

It will be just the opposite, if dementia Joe wins, he'll double your taxes.

...and that's not even considering what Murphy decides to do to us. NJ, at minimum, has a 9 Billion shortfall, and they passed a 3 month stop gap, to really look at the damage. It will probably be a 18 billion hole, at least. Bend over, wait to see what Murphy and crew do to our tax bills...

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I will have to go to Rush's site to confirm this, but I am pretty sure I heard him on the radio yesterday saying that the -39%  GDP stastic is actually for the entire year projected on the second quarter, and assumes that quarters 3 and 4 will look like quarter 2. 

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9 hours ago, matty said:

So George, what's the never ending plague plan? First it was only two weeks to flatten the curve, then don't wear a mask, then, nope, we lied, wear a mask, then ok, open up after cases decline, then 'protestors' and rioting that continue to this day, but they're not the problem, you maskless heathen are, and NOW we HAVE to wait until there is a vaccine? That about right? I also recall your 'experts' saying there would be MILLIONS of dead in the US and UK, and plague afflicted zombies clawing at hospital doors to be hooked up to a ventilator, whilst mass graves of dead victims were bulldozed closed out back.

The left and the media have consistently lied and have only their sick power hungry agenda

realistically, about 48 states had stay at home orders in some fashion starting early April through early June..

But people act like we "did nothing" omg how did other countries beat the RONA? meanwhile... everyplace that has opened up is seeing spikes unless they live in Isolation. 

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25 minutes ago, JackDaWack said:

But people act like we "did nothing" omg how did other countries beat the RONA? meanwhile... everyplace that has opened up is seeing spikes unless they live in Isolation. 

That's exactly what "Flattening the Curve" does. It doesn't ELIMINATE the virus, it just SPREADS it out over time, when things reopen. Everyone will either be exposed to it, or catch it.

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On 7/30/2020 at 9:29 PM, Greenday said:

Should have chopped the finger off and cauterized the wound, putting an end the the COVID stuff months ago. Now we are stretching it out and the entire arm is rotting. 

I have With disdain.  I agree.   You are correct sir.   This is the only thing i agree with you. 

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