Happen to catch a report on GMA this morning about a rash of home invasions countrywide and even with the FBI reporting that violent crime has decreased,home invasions seen to be on the upswing.

As is the case with network television, no real numbers were given but salacious blurbs and snippets of police recordings were.

Is it a fact or are we just seeing media coverage increase? and if it is, why the stubborn stance by our law makers in not fortifying castle law and CCW?.

I don't think there is an increase of the actual crime but rather more coverage. More media scare tactics

Happen to catch a report on GMA this morning about a rash of home invasions countrywide and even with the FBI reporting that violent crime has decreased,home invasions seen to be on the upswing.

As is the case with network television, no real numbers were given but salacious blurbs and snippets of police recordings were.

Is it a fact or are we just seeing media coverage increase? and if it is, why the stubborn stance by our law makers in not fortifying castle law and CCW?.

 

Thoise invasions will be used as a reason to take away law abiding people's guns, you know, to keep guns off the streets. not let them

God forbid we should be able to defend themselves.

Of course they're up. You don't need a degree in anything to come to that conclusion. More people out of work, the criminals being more brazen then ever before and good honest people who would have never thought they'd be forced into illegal activities just trying to make ends meet. Who would be surprised that home invasions, along with every other crime is up?

I don't think there is an increase of the actual crime but rather more coverage. More media scare tactics

 

 

Really? With less police in every city, unemployment at an all time high, existing criminals that are getting more vicious every day and honest people that have been forced into crime to survive, what would make you make that statement?

He was specifically talking bout home invasions. I never said crime overall is down. I cn tell you first hand that overall crime is up.

I certainly don't believe all crime is increasing. I'm willing to bet nationwide murder rates are lower than the peak in the 60s or even the small increase during the 80s. The most serious violent crimes don't seem to correlate too strongly with economic conditions on a nationwide basis. Even if they are up a little, the overall long-term trend has been down for decades. Thefts and things like that probably do correlate a bit more, probably violence in cities a little.

 

From a strictly anecdotal standpoint, I do believe that a higher percentage of the serious violent crime is now being committed by particularly brazen and ruthless criminals. So it wouldn't surprise me to find out that home invasions are up on average.

Home invasions really scares me. Living in NJ I feel I'm not prepared enough for one. If I were in Florida My wife and myself having a CWL and no children in the house we could be much more prepared.

If you have a weapon, train to use it. That way if the time ever comes instinct take over

Home invasions really scares me. Living in NJ I feel I'm not prepared enough for one. If I were in Florida My wife and myself having a CWL and no children in the house we could be much more prepared.

 

You can carry all around your house and property. I dont see how being in NJ limits you being able to defend yourself at your home.

He was specifically talking bout home invasions. I never said crime overall is down. I cn tell you first hand that overall crime is up.

He was specifically talking bout home invasions. I never said crime overall is down. I cn tell you first hand that overall crime is up.

I was specifically referring to home invasions but it interest me that just about all the big guns in LE is quoted as saying violent crime is down significantly while the rank and file says it's up. Another case of belying the public's fears in the age of police retrenchments,re-categorizing of some LE from community to military or SWAT based operations and a growing overall distrust in LE?

We all know statistics can and are manipulated,but what are the facts? Are we slowly ascending into a safe utopia or sliding down to a lawless haven the likes we have seen in movies such as Robocop or Bladerunner?

I agree that home invasions and burglaries are on the rise.......I am a victim......One year this week......Toms River and Ocean County in general is getting it hard.

You can carry all around your house and property. I dont see how being in NJ limits you being able to defend yourself at your home.

You can carry all around your house and property. I dont see how being in NJ limits you being able to defend yourself at your home.

The Castle Law in NJ has so many caveats as to a victim's responsibilities in the event his home is breached that it is entirely possible that he ends up serving time along with the intruder and end up losing his property to the same in a civil suit.

By all means....protect your family but be prepared for what comes next.

Home invasions really scares me. Living in NJ I feel I'm not prepared enough for one. If I were in Florida My wife and myself having a CWL and no children in the house we could be much more prepared.

What is it about NJ that makes you less prepared for a home invasion? At home you can have a firearm and hollowpoint ammunition. The rest is all planning, tactics and training which is up to you.

 

About the only restriction I see is the 15 round limit but I don't exactly feel unprepared with 15 rounds of HST and a few additional magazines. And being unable to carry outside, there is a possibilty of arriving hoime to find an intruder. Is there something else I am missing?

I was specifically referring to home invasions but it interest me that just about all the big guns in LE is quoted as saying violent crime is down significantly while the rank and file says it's up. Another case of belying the public's fears in the age of police retrenchments,re-categorizing of some LE from community to military or SWAT based operations and a growing overall distrust in LE?

We all know statistics can and are manipulated,but what are the facts? Are we slowly ascending into a safe utopia or sliding down to a lawless haven the likes we have seen in movies such as Robocop or Bladerunner?

 

Well the uniform crime reporting stats are only preliminary for 2011, and there's nothing for 2012 yet. It's the kind of thing you are never going to get stats for the current conditions. However, for 2011, we seem to be trending towards the bottom of a decline in crime across the board. Given the long slide by small percentages, it wouldn't take much of an uptick to look like a spike in any given category. As for rank and file LE saying differently, I think that is a matter of perception. The rate of injury and death amongst police officers in the line of duty is up. That could be because you are looking at a gang fight between the gang in blue and the drug gangs that doesn't necessarily spill over into large areas of the general populace. It could be due to police officer headcount reductions resulting in any individual police officer having an increased likelihood of a violent encounter on duty because even if the rate of crime is falling, police forces around the country have recently seen budget related attrition resulting in a higher rate of decreased headcount than the rate of reduction of crime. Also, for a police officer, more types of crime equate to the possibility of observed violence. My house gets broken into or my car gets stolen while I'm not there, no violence. An officer winds up having to deal with that perpetrator either after the fact or caught in the act, it will likely result in persuit and at least a little bit of struggle during arrest, if not worse. Thus there may be a tendency for police to see many crimes considered non-violent as violent.

 

Can the stats be trusted? They will never be perfect, but some things are verifiable to a degree. For example, the UCR stats show a downward trend in auto thefts. If you look at insurance institute numbers, they report detailed stats mostly form the UCR, but they also report decreasing premiums for coverage of thefts. Which means the actuaries say theft is costing them less, and the actuaries DEFINITELY take into account actual payouts made on policies under that category. Since cars aren't getting cheaper, that leaves two possibilities: 1) there are less thefts, and 2) everyone but the folks living in nice safe neighborhoods are dropping theft coverage.

 

Are home invasions up? No idea. I would suggest that daytime break ins have always been a popular method of reducing risk when burgling. Given the economy, likely more people are at home during the day being unemployed or underemployed. That would say to me that it is plausible that what would be a break-in could be converted to a home invasion stats wise even if there was no intention to do violence, and none occurred.

People need to realize that crimes can be categorized differently to fudge numbers.

Thank you raz-O for your comprehensive,intelligent and concise explanation. I was especially informed at the car theft reports.Thank you again.

What is it about NJ that makes you less prepared for a home invasion? At home you can have a firearm and hollowpoint ammunition. The rest is all planning, tactics and training which is up to you.

 

About the only restriction I see is the 15 round limit but I don't exactly feel unprepared with 15 rounds of HST and a few additional magazines. And being unable to carry outside, there is a possibilty of arriving hoime to find an intruder. Is there something else I am missing?

Here in NJ the laws are more

restrictive to firearms than Florida. In Florida it would just be my wife and myself, I would feel much better with guns hidden around the house with no children or my children's friends. The home in Florida we have on the drawing board also has only one floor. Much easer to defend and plan. I can keep a gun on my person while coming home or leaving my home . You can take a good look around your home before getting out of your car in your garage and miss something, or someone. Train more? sure I'm all for it. In NJ while someone is kicking in your door can you get your firearm load it and be ready in 3 seconds if its locked up? A CWL is the way to go. Its always on your person NJ law does not allow me to do so.

You can keep your firearm loaded and ready in your home. I have a two story home with no garage and in the event of a home invasion I know exactly what my plan is. My wife knows too. She thinks I'm crazy but will listen if that time ever comes. Has my plan changed now that I have a child...yes but I still have a very good plan.

What is it about NJ that makes you less prepared for a home invasion? At home you can have a firearm and hollowpoint ammunition. The rest is all planning, tactics and training which is up to you.

 

Absolutely true. But, as others have suggested, a lot of people get jacked up going into their homes when returning from somewhere. It's a pretty good strategy if you have the time, information, or motivation to go with it. Now, you point out planning and tactics, but let's face it. It's going to take extra effort on an eternal basis to defeat a motivated attempt to ambush you outside your home while unnarmed.

 

Also, as we discussed in a thread a long time ago, it's not as practical for most people to carry 100% of the time at home when you can't conceal outside your home in a gun-unfriendly environment. From what I can tell most of the people on this forum do not carry 100% of the time at home. That causes a lot of security issues if somebody tries to rob you.

This is why situational awareness is so important

Absolutely true. But, as others have suggested, a lot of people get jacked up going into their homes when returning from somewhere. It's a pretty good strategy if you have the time, information, or motivation to go with it. Now, you point out planning and tactics, but let's face it. It's going to take extra effort on an eternal basis to defeat a motivated attempt to ambush you outside your home while unnarmed.

 

Also, as we discussed in a thread a long time ago, it's not as practical for most people to carry 100% of the time at home when you can't conceal outside your home in a gun-unfriendly environment. From what I can tell most of the people on this forum do not carry 100% of the time at home. That causes a lot of security issues if somebody tries to rob you.

This is why situational awareness is so important

I agree a 100%

This is why situational awareness is so important

 

It is, but it is not foolproof. Often, situational awareness only gives you an advantage in the final moments prior to an attack. If it allowed you to avoid every attack, we wouldn't need guns in the first place.

 

 

It is, but it is not foolproof. Often, situational awareness only gives you an advantage in the final moments prior to an attack. If it allowed you to avoid every attack, we wouldn't need guns in the first place.

 

Nothing is foolproof.

Nothing is foolproof.

Nothing is foolproof.

I agree. Taking a page from a good friend's book.every threat may not be neutralized but with preparation every threat can be minimized.I keep 2 of my pistols loaded in the house,strategically placed and known to only myself and wife, we don't so much run drills but cover scenarios in the event of a break in with and without me at home at the time.While no one can say how they will react at that critical moment,I'm confident we at least have more than a clue.

Here in NJ the laws are more

restrictive to firearms than Florida. In Florida it would just be my wife and myself, I would feel much better with guns hidden around the house with no children or my children's friends. The home in Florida we have on the drawing board also has only one floor. Much easer to defend and plan. I can keep a gun on my person while coming home or leaving my home . You can take a good look around your home before getting out of your car in your garage and miss something, or someone. Train more? sure I'm all for it. In NJ while someone is kicking in your door can you get your firearm load it and be ready in 3 seconds if its locked up? A CWL is the way to go. Its always on your person NJ law does not allow me to do so.

Alex, I agree with you on the CCW. You are definitely more vulnerable arriving home in NJ. The other stuff though, seems a function of the layout of your house, the presense of children, etc.that are not specific to legalities in NJ. Keeping a gun loaded and ready at home is perfectly legal, and you can have it on you if you choose.

I understand that home invasions is what's being debated, not crime in general. To that, I still feel that you'll find that home invasions are on the rise, due to all the reasons I've already listed. Stats can be skewed to look however the person wants them to.

People need to realize that crimes can be categorized differently to fudge numbers.

 

Heck, sometimes the fudging isn't even deliberate. UCr guidelines often vary form local guidelines, and accurate pass through of data can depend on impossibly perfect paperwork skills.

 

Then you get institutionalized drift. We've always had break ins that occurred with a member of household present. But we didn't have home invasion statutes until after we got a big wave of them and home invasion specific legislation was passed. Then you have the issue of if that statute/regulation/administrative policy discriminates between two types of crimes the same as you would.

There is a simple answer to the problem, The chipper should be running 24/7. The only way to deter crime is to make the criminals pay with their life. Sooner or later they will get it !!!! JMHO

There is a simple answer to the problem, The chipper should be running 24/7. The only way to deter crime is to make the criminals pay with their life. Sooner or later they will get it !!!! JMHO

 

 

Agreed. In addition, by doing this, you'll never have repeat offenders.