You are still wrong. We can, and have repeatedly dried up the whole world because the US domestic ammunition market dwarfs everything else in the ammo world. Your understanding of the market is shit, and your need to imagine a conspiracy doesn't help.
The fact that 5 million people did it is not digestible because they didn't. That is not what is going on. This does not make it a conspiracy.
Last "panic" that impacted global supply was not actually the 2012 panic but the previous one under Bush that had us already buying and then added a HUGE purchase from the military and homeland security To the tune of nearly 3 billion rounds in ~2 years. At that time the us ammo market was ~11 billion rounds, about 7 billion of that produced domestically, and about 1.8 billion of that being rimfire ammo. To come in with an order of 9 billion rounds of mostly .223 and 9mm put a hurting on availability of those rounds and related components.
Today you have us domestic supply for ammunition that sits at about 8.1 billion rounds. Since I can't find numbers for now, lets assume it too increased capacity by about 14% and moved from 4 billion to about 4.5 billion. That gives us an annual capacity of about 12.6 billion rounds of ammo.
So some quick math. WE had roughly 100 million gun owners in the US. We added about 7 million new ones. That is 107 million gun owners roughly.
Now lets say they all decide they want one 50 round box of ammo. That's 5.35 billion rounds of ammo there. Lets say they want 150 rounds each. That's now 16+ billion rounds of ammunition. Significantly greater than the global supply.
If it was just the 7 million new owners buying, they would need to buy just 1800 rounds a piece to completely eat up the existing manufacturing capacity. This unlikely to be the case, but it is also not unimaginable when you see that lesson one second one of being a new gun owner for them is that this shit runs out and you need to supply your own inventory in an emergency.
But I can guarantee you 100% that new gun owners would be averaging above 3 boxes a piece if they could get it readily. I also guarantee you that plenty of existing owners who never bought in bulk are now shopping in the 500-2000 round size purchase.
This shitstorm is actually less bad than it could be, and that was because when this hit, we had an ammo GLUT and some of the lowest prices in recent history. If not for that ammo prices would be way higher and the shortages would be worse. But effectively we have 100% capacity going right now PLUS all the shit that was sitting in warehouses.
If you are a a member of the government doing game plans on possibly confronting America's gun owners, there's a big implication in the fact that these numbers aren't much, much worse:
These numbers tell us that a huge chunk of this ammo we've been buying over the years isn't getting shot. It's getting stockpiled. If everyone was out, the customer who buy by the 1000 instead of but they 100 would be putting a lot more pressure on the market. There's a shit ton of us not participating in this at all right now and it is still this bad.
There's no conspiracy. There was a pandemic which made people fear their government and fear what will happen if a nation full of people suddenly winds up poor and hungry. Then you added violent riots. Then you add in the usual presidential election panic buying.
You ARE seeing weird market forces though. One of the things magnifying this greatly are small shops who want to service their customer base are buying inventory at retail prices and reselling them with normal business markups. SO you are effectively seeing a retail supply chain version of compound interest going on. Part of what is fueling this is you have also seen some large manufacturers going into direct sales. So yes, you are seeing a bit of a breakdown in the distributor system that previously covered at or near 100% of the market. But it's failure is not some pre-planned, engineered thing to make a buck. It's a reaction to it being insufficient, and that reaction is not an efficient reaction.