raz-0

That's really not true. You can get away with a number of bad habits with .22 that will cause you problems when actual recoil management is needed. I find this to mostly come up with self directed learning with a .22. One example is you can shoot .22 pretty accurately with a very limp grip due to minimal recoil. The flip side is how well you can avoid developing a flinch with a centerfire caliber and/or how well you can self direct to mitigate and unlearn your flinch.

Slowing growth is still growth. 12 quarters of slowing growth wouldn’t be a recession. You being you will sit here trying to spin it that you are right until the end of days despite the evidence because you cited an article. Your statement that we entered a recession prior to covid is just simply wrong. We are multiple credible sources into establishing that. As for your last quote of me you do conveniently leave out where I say basically the same thing as you. Yes, a couple of quarters of that and you might technically meet the qualifications of recovery, but a bounce off of a record drop can look huge without getting us anywhere near pre recession levels. We don’t disagree on that.

Yes you are just ignoring that on a global scale covid was already a thing, messing with supply changes, and causing unease and panic. Feb 2020 was neither 2019 nor is it pre-covid. Both seem to be points you tried to make in this thread. Yes there was a recession in 2020. Technically we have 1q of growth so we could leave it soon. But it won’t feel like it even if we do because stuff tanked so hard that the bar for what counts as growth was set so low by the massive q3 declines.

Yes, and that says that the majority of contraction was in March, and covid was here at that time and people were panic buying toilet paper already. That also says it didn’t start contracting until mid February, and that was when it had broken free from wuhan without a doubt. This does not bolster the notion that the economy was in recession prior to covid.

Recession is 2 successive quarters of declining GDP. That was Q1 and Q2 of 2020. Q4 2019 was quarter on quarter growth. The source of that chart is the bea. If you want to claim covid had no effect until the lockdowns in march, then you are delusional.

Posts that the numbers went up? Yes. Posts that we went into recession prior to covid? No.

Yeah I presented the numbers wrong. Everything other source was charting the number of people who couldn’t pay from savings. The federal numbers were charting who could and my brain just spaced over it as a typo given the context. I fixed the post. People who can’t pay out of savings roughly doubled presuming the recent poll is using similar methodology.

82% is from a recent poll. It is not explained if the methodology matches the federal numbers. Taken at face value, since COVID lock downs that would mean that the number of people in that boat roughly doubled.

the collimated LEDs are better throwers than the LEP lights... for now. the weltool once is much smaller than the previous ones I have seen. As for bright lights, there are tons of rioters using high lumen lights to strobe people.

I did see that. It has numbers from 2013-2018 in it. That really has nothing to do with your argument. A recession has a distinct set of criteria to provide meaning to the term in reference to the economy. A recession is two consecutive quarters of fall in GDP. By that measure, we were not in recession until end of Q2 2020 according to the BEA's numbers. You seem to be concerned with the quality of people's finances in that, which is not relevant to the term. Frankly, in tough times people lean on credit because they have no other choice and in a growing economy they have some faith in, they lean on credit because they feel comfortable that they can pay it off. The fact the average person has shit financial intelligence or discipline makes the state of individual finances a very unreliable indicator of the state of the economy. You seem to think it is. I would point out another metric, personal bankruptcy, which is down in 2020, and 2019, and 2018. https://abi-org-corp.s3.amazonaws.com/articles/aacer-nov-2020-nationwide-bankruptcy-filings-by-state-and-jurisdiction.xlsx That being said, the economic indicators are that GDP has grown massively in Q3 over Q2 of 2020. If we get two consecutive quarters of growth I'm sure some people will say it is a recovery, but the reality is without an increase in employment and individual income, it is not. I like to view the economy as two separate economies. What I call the ledger economy and the real economy. The ledger economy doesn't really get spent on real things. It's investment dollars that never really leave the bank ledgers and just get swapped in columns. It doesn't tend to do things like create inflation for food and such. The real economy are things like wages, retail sales, etc. where money chases actual labor, or some product that was mined or farmed or processed from something mined or farmed. I.e. finite things you can't mint infinity more of with the press of a button. The ledger economy is booming because they feel better that the supply chain isn't going to implode forever and that a cure is coming for covid, so they fell many, many things are undervalued and are all buy buy buy, The real economy is in the shitter and while it is possible that because the unemployment was weird and artificially generated that huge swaths of jobs will return with the end of covid. I think it is woefully optimistic to think that is the case. Too many people are employed by small business that simply doesn't have the bank account to weather this shit this long.

I doubt it would come out significantly different. The reality is these polls don't even qualify to be called polls, and the results favor whoever has an opinion and brigades it or sics the bots on it. Most gun control polls go pro rkba because that is the population that cares more about the subject and pays attention to the existence of polls that are not shoved in their face.

It would seem silly. Which means it is almost assuredly the way it works.

The report was published 2019, the numbers are form 2018.

Uhh.. if you have a flash suppressor on your m1a, it should be pinned. Your two evil features are the mag and the flash suppressor. If you have a comp, no pinning, your two evil features are the mag and the threaded barrel.

Depends if he’s talking about during covid, or the numbers I posted. We had significantly recovered from the 2007 recession prior to this shitstorm in terms of investments, unemployment, and actual wages, but as we did, more people had less financial buffer.

Reading between the lines, it sounds like they were taking nasal swabs and dumping them in the trash, and possibly reusing sharps.

The law has no definition. So all we have to go on is what people have said. Either lawyers or NJSP firearms unit people. Which leaves us with "was it sold as a flash suppressor" and "can you stick your finger in the end of it." To which the answer is kind of, and it's debatable. That's not something I'd like to go to court with. It's also likely not a terribly effective comp, nor quieter, nor a good flash hider. Strike industries is pretty bad at making comps. Most of their muzzle devices are best described as cosmetic. Their most effective is their cookie cutter, and even that isn't great. HEre's a review of how it suppresses flash, which is basically it doesn't compared to an actual flash suppressor. https://www.thetruthaboutguns.com/ar-15-flash-hiding-test-2/ The lantac dragon has crenelations and is not sold as a flash hider, and you can't stick your finger in it, and it is a semi decent comp.

I think that this is one of those things where humans being bad at determining scale comes into play. You don't need a lot of the population showing up to keep a store busy or sell out an item. Yeah PS5s are flying off the shelf, but that's projected to be 5 million by 12-31-2020. On a planet with 7.5 billion people. Even if that were US sales and one per household, that would be sales to between 4-5% of households. None of those 80% of households need to be participating in sales to hit those numbers. People who got the money or credit are also likely leaning into the holiday to create something positive to look forward to. Which is sort of why these winter holidays existed in the first place. A bunch of bored people stuck inside more than they are used to trying to get through the dark days of winter and in need of a spot of cheer.

in 2016, the number of households without enough savings to cover a $500 emergency was 63%. It was 57% in 2013. The fed comes up with regular numbers on a $400 threshold. https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/2019-economic-well-being-of-us-households-in-2018-dealing-with-unexpected-expenses.htm ETA: My bad here, the story I found the source numbers linked from was reporting on inability to cover a $400 expense. The below copy paste of the summary study from the table is the number who would cover it form savings. Year Percent 2018 61 2017 59 2016 56 2015 54 2014 53 2013 50

Just something to consider, but in many towns the Mayor is more accessible than the police chief and can make a lot of shit roll down hill on to the chief's desk. But if the state police firearms unit is no longer leaning on people, I'm guessing that retirement has fucked NJ gun owners. If your PD is shit, you won't be owning guns anytime soon and will have zero recourse other than the courts. I'm sure we will be needing to drag this shit along to SCOTUS at some point, and the indication is that arbitrary delays are in the sights of the RKBA lawyering crowd with the suit against illinois.

I disagree. Just before the time jump you basically have a stable government set up, and two what if's about the gates. Nuke a gate or tell the audience it's unusable now, and pretty much all of books 7,8 and 9 go poof. The few bits of 7 that don't we were going to hit early the way the series was going anyway. Would it be a satifying ending? No, not compared to how the books are going, but if you view this as sort of a political thriller action piece in space, you can end that just fine.

I think they just want to cut it prior to the 30 year time jump. After that the story gets REAL expensive to tell right. I'll be shocked if they can do nemesis games right in season 5 on the kind of budget they have had. It may not be the end though, as the time jump gives them the chance to recast everyone, and can be done in two to three seasons.

No need. The pulse will be: Shortage. Even if the demand dried up today, all the distributors and retailers have placed orders for high volumes. They could get fucked on that, but I doubt it significantly. If it were some conspiracy of easy market manipulation as you believe, the answer will be: shortage. Because why not print money if you can. Based on past performance, once the buying starts to decline rather than increase, we will still have at least a year of shit supply and prices to deal with.

You are still wrong. We can, and have repeatedly dried up the whole world because the US domestic ammunition market dwarfs everything else in the ammo world. Your understanding of the market is shit, and your need to imagine a conspiracy doesn't help. The fact that 5 million people did it is not digestible because they didn't. That is not what is going on. This does not make it a conspiracy. Last "panic" that impacted global supply was not actually the 2012 panic but the previous one under Bush that had us already buying and then added a HUGE purchase from the military and homeland security To the tune of nearly 3 billion rounds in ~2 years. At that time the us ammo market was ~11 billion rounds, about 7 billion of that produced domestically, and about 1.8 billion of that being rimfire ammo. To come in with an order of 9 billion rounds of mostly .223 and 9mm put a hurting on availability of those rounds and related components. Today you have us domestic supply for ammunition that sits at about 8.1 billion rounds. Since I can't find numbers for now, lets assume it too increased capacity by about 14% and moved from 4 billion to about 4.5 billion. That gives us an annual capacity of about 12.6 billion rounds of ammo. So some quick math. WE had roughly 100 million gun owners in the US. We added about 7 million new ones. That is 107 million gun owners roughly. Now lets say they all decide they want one 50 round box of ammo. That's 5.35 billion rounds of ammo there. Lets say they want 150 rounds each. That's now 16+ billion rounds of ammunition. Significantly greater than the global supply. If it was just the 7 million new owners buying, they would need to buy just 1800 rounds a piece to completely eat up the existing manufacturing capacity. This unlikely to be the case, but it is also not unimaginable when you see that lesson one second one of being a new gun owner for them is that this shit runs out and you need to supply your own inventory in an emergency. But I can guarantee you 100% that new gun owners would be averaging above 3 boxes a piece if they could get it readily. I also guarantee you that plenty of existing owners who never bought in bulk are now shopping in the 500-2000 round size purchase. This shitstorm is actually less bad than it could be, and that was because when this hit, we had an ammo GLUT and some of the lowest prices in recent history. If not for that ammo prices would be way higher and the shortages would be worse. But effectively we have 100% capacity going right now PLUS all the shit that was sitting in warehouses. If you are a a member of the government doing game plans on possibly confronting America's gun owners, there's a big implication in the fact that these numbers aren't much, much worse: These numbers tell us that a huge chunk of this ammo we've been buying over the years isn't getting shot. It's getting stockpiled. If everyone was out, the customer who buy by the 1000 instead of but they 100 would be putting a lot more pressure on the market. There's a shit ton of us not participating in this at all right now and it is still this bad. There's no conspiracy. There was a pandemic which made people fear their government and fear what will happen if a nation full of people suddenly winds up poor and hungry. Then you added violent riots. Then you add in the usual presidential election panic buying. You ARE seeing weird market forces though. One of the things magnifying this greatly are small shops who want to service their customer base are buying inventory at retail prices and reselling them with normal business markups. SO you are effectively seeing a retail supply chain version of compound interest going on. Part of what is fueling this is you have also seen some large manufacturers going into direct sales. So yes, you are seeing a bit of a breakdown in the distributor system that previously covered at or near 100% of the market. But it's failure is not some pre-planned, engineered thing to make a buck. It's a reaction to it being insufficient, and that reaction is not an efficient reaction.

Damn, up to 7.7 million now.