57 minutes ago, father-of-three said:

Any predictions on where between $500 and $2000 it will drop to?

Everything is falling, so even if it’s in the red, anything owned that’s in the green for the individual still looks good right now. 
 

I think the banks are getting out. I think that takes it to about $8-9k.  The question is can the various exchanges stay in the business of being exchanges.  Basically can the venture capitalist money stay in and keep the market a sizable market. I don’t think they all can, but I’m less informed to be able to suggest none can. So the question there is will you have people trying to be market makers or just the exploitative money changers?  If they all get out, it’s essentially going to zero. 
 

If one assumes it remains a market and that market is more or less fair and it’s a commodity subject to inflationary pressures, I’m guessing the floor is around $1200. 
 

But i think that is a big assumption. There’s going to be motivation for the least regulated exchange to get cut throat and try to screw the more regulated exchanges. And that could eliminate it from being a viable market. At that point it is zero unless you can find someone who wants it yourself.

It’s a messed up market. The pretense is that it is a currency. But if it wasand  a loaf of bread cost you one bitcoin one day and a few years later it cost you 40,000 Bitcoin you wouldn’t be celebrating, you’d be tearing it like Zimbabwean dollars.

 If it’s a commodity it should retain worth. If it’s a currency, this is the phase where it ram up so much nobody will touch it and even the entity printing it up won’t accept it.

 

I don't know how it will close, but the DOW dropped below 30,000 this morning.

5 hours ago, 45Doll said:

I don't know how it will close, but the DOW dropped below 30,000 this morning.

I haven't looked at my 403b this month yet, but I'm not sure I want to.

5 hours ago, 45Doll said:

I don't know how it will close, but the DOW dropped below 30,000 this morning.

And stayed there. 29,927 at the close. All the others down too over 3%.

Any I-Bond buyers here?

23 minutes ago, Xtors said:

Any I-Bond buyers here?

Yep. I think they look really good right now!

On 6/14/2022 at 11:22 AM, Displaced Texan said:

My personal gut feeling is the Dow will bottom out around 27,000. 
 

Predictions? 

I pity the fool!!....who thought "inflation would be transitory".  

Around 25k.  They just tore off the bandaid.  But haven't realized the wound is infected yet.

7 hours ago, father-of-three said:

I haven't looked at my 403b this month yet, but I'm not sure I want to.

I looked.  About 6 quarters worth of $ are gone.  Ouch.

Includes a review of many stocks' performance recently, and the potential effect of big margin calls.

Margin Debt Unwinds Further amid Massacre of High-Flying Stocks and Forced Selling | Wolf Street

Closed under 30K.  WTF???

Walmart down about 10% in after hours trading.  Slashes 2nd quarter and full year outlook.

More cracks in the levee.  Couple this with the housing market cooling off, interest rates set to rise by at least another .75% later this week, more companies announcing layoffs and hiring freezes and it could be a bumpy week.  

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/walmart-warning-stock-price-recession-worries-205538127.html

It seems like Ammo Inc. will never get to back to where it was, nor past where it was.  I can play the long game,  but then I would probably be puttng my investment $ elsewhere. 

 

Just venting...

10 hours ago, father-of-three said:

It seems like Ammo Inc. will never get to back to where it was, nor past where it was.  I can play the long game,  but then I would probably be puttng my investment $ elsewhere. 

 

Just venting...

 

 

I hear ya!

That fast run up had actually put me back in the green, FINALLY,  late friday. Debating dumping it, but didnt... Then of course a hard dive back into a solid red yesterday... WTF

Now had i sold, it would still be climbing...

 

3 hours ago, eyeinstine said:

 

 

I hear ya!

That fast run up had actually put me back in the green, FINALLY,  late friday. Debating dumping it, but didnt... Then of course a hard dive back into a solid red yesterday... WTF

Now had i sold, it would still be climbing...

 

Ouch.  It just dropped another 60-70 cents.

Michael Burry (The Big Short) fairly recenlty liquidated all but one stock.  Not saying to follow his actions alone b/c everyone's risk tolerance and time horizons are different.  

But if half the things that people have been saying / predicting come true in the next few months (recession, housing prices come down, rates continue to climb, inflation NOT under control, food shortages, etc) then I don't see much to be optimistic about in the near term.

 

Ouch.  A 1008 point drop.  Ammo Inc. is really low  now.

31 minutes ago, father-of-three said:

Ouch.  A 1008 point drop.  Ammo Inc. is really low  now.

35% drop in two weeks... unreal...

2 weeks ago I was at +10% FINALLY after holding and averaging down over the course of a year plus.. Shoulda dumped then, but really feeling good about the company overall, so i held..  In hind sight, bad decision!

+10% now at -29%      ugggghhh...  My typical luck...

 

Anyone notice/read into the whole spin off company and that news?  i thought it was a good thing, but apparantly not as everyone is selling off....

 

 

1 hour ago, eyeinstine said:

35% drop in two weeks... unreal...

2 weeks ago I was at +10% FINALLY after holding and averaging down over the course of a year plus.. Shoulda dumped then, but really feeling good about the company overall, so i held..  In hind sight, bad decision!

+10% now at -29%      ugggghhh...  My typical luck...

 

Anyone notice/read into the whole spin off company and that news?  i thought it was a good thing, but apparantly not as everyone is selling off....

 

 

Apparently Vista Outdoor did the same thing...and their stock has been on the low side too, at least recently.

1 hour ago, father-of-three said:

Ouch.  A 1008 point drop.

Thanks Brandon. 2 new bills, Keep spending money.

On 8/26/2022 at 7:00 PM, father-of-three said:

Apparently Vista Outdoor did the same thing...and their stock has been on the low side too, at least recently.

This is what i was referring too... Figured this would be a huge topic with anyone holding POWW (Ammo Inc) shares.

 

https://www.gunbroker.com/c/press/ammo-inc-announces-plan-to-separate-ammunition-and-marketplace-businesses-into-two-independent-publicly-traded-companies/?trk_msg=M04SQH1JCS04R2F54M82TE6HTS&trk_contact=HUTIO11QBM2QPVE564P174FE6C&trk_sid=31KGP54JMIMN4L7AMA11340GVK&trk_link=4EVF8OAEME2KNEMF3I99ANQMP4&utm_source=Listrak&utm_medium=Email&utm_term=MR%234%3a+Ammo+Inc+Separation&utm_campaign=GB+Weekly+Newsletter&utm_content=2022.08.06+GB+Weekly+Newsletter

 

As Ammo Inc. drops even farther..... 

(and Vista outdoors continues to level out at low numbers)

Blood bath today.  

1 hour ago, gleninjersey said:

Blood bath today.  

What's 1,276 points between friends?

Build back better my ass...

22 minutes ago, CMJeepster said:

What's 1,276 points between friends?

Build back better my ass...

Honestly, I'm surprised it's taken this long to come down to where it's at.  I still think we have a way to go though. 

Rates are going to be hiked 0.75% at a minimum next week.  The speculation of a 1% bump jumped to about 40% today and yesterday it was pretty much non-existent.  IMHO they SHOULD raise it 1% but if they it will be sign of desperation and will cauase panic selling.  So they won't.  They should have been raising rates over a year ago.  They are trying to play catch up now and they are way behind.

As they continue to raise the Fed rate mortage rates will climb.  We recently hit 6% on the 30 year fixed which we haven't seen in A LONG time.  As mortgage rates climb, home prices have to come down.  So the housing market WILL tank.  Not as bad as 2008 but you'll still people suddenlty realizing that they are upside down on their mortgage and credit lines.  And credit card rates will climb even higher (if that's possible).  Many people are near or maxed out on their credit cards.  As rates rise the monthly payments are goign to go up.  Borrowing costs for businesses will be rising at the same time.  Guess who those costs get passed along to?  The consumer.  Over 50% of Americans are already living paycheck to paycheck.  Employees will also be hit in the form of layoffs due to slowing product demand and lowered profits as people will HAVE to cut back what little "extra" spending they have.

So as the Fed is trying to "reduce" inflation they are pushing borrowing costs up on a populace that is living paycheck to paycheck and essentially maxed out on their spending.  At the same time the Fed is forcing companies to RAISE prices even more due elevated borrowing costs.  This is all on top of 15% rising grocery costs and quickly rising home cooling / heating costs.

Guess what is just around the corner?  The holidays.  Guess who won't be spending as much during the holidays (because they can't)?  American consumers.  So early next year we'll be hearing about how retails sales were down.  Which will further drive the market down as rates continue to climb.  And as rates continue to climb guess what else is happnening.  Individual and instituional investors start selling equities and buying bonds because the rates are now more attractive on bonds.  So the stock market takes another hit.

Hope I'm very wrong about all the above.  But I have a feeling that by the start of next Spring the Dow will be closer to 25k than it is to 40k (which we were very near not too long ago).  Winter is coming.  In more ways than one.  Start preparing now.

Sadly, Glenn, I don’t think you ARE wrong. 

2 hours ago, gleninjersey said:

The speculation of a 1% bump jumped to about 40% today and yesterday it was pretty much non-existent.

"An Ocean Of Red..." | ZeroHedge

FedEx down more than 15% in after hour trading after issueing an "ominous warning about the global economy."

"Global volumes declined as macroeconomic trends significantly worsened later in the quarter, both internationally and in the U.S." FedEx CEO Raj Subramaniam warned in the release. "We are swiftly addressing these headwinds, but given the speed at which conditions shifted, first quarter results are below our expectations.

The story goes on to state that they  will be starting "Cost-cutting measures outlined by FedEx include reducing flights, temporarily parking aircraft, closing more than 90 FedEx office locations, and deferring hiring plans."  And in closing states that "The preliminary results from FedEx, which is viewed as a bellwether for the global economy, sent shares of UPS (UPS) and Amazon (AMZN) lower in after hours trading; UPS shares lost more than 5% while Amazon was down around 2% late Thursday."  Bold emphasis is from me.

In English...things are worsening quickly.  

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-ex-economic-warning-after-hours-movers-september-14-220428377.html

-522 after the latest rate hike.  :-(

15 hours ago, father-of-three said:

-522 after the latest rate hike.  :-(

Build back better...

Dow was flirting with 30,000 on the down side about 30 minutes ago. The day is young.