If you know anything about the Canary Islands, and specifically the Cumbre Vieja volcano on La Palma, you know about the landslide threat posed by an eruption. That landslide, depending on it's size, could produce a tsunami that would wash up on the entire eastern seaboard of the United States.

That volcano has had several thousand eruptions earthquakes over the last five to ten days and is now spewing lava all over the island. I saw a very detailed video analysis of this volcano and the island several years ago, and the threat posed to the U.S. is no joke. If a landslide big enough to threaten the eastern U.S. did occur, we'd have about nine hours warning before it hit, depending on what state you lived in. Do you think they'd announce it and cause a stampede?

'Could Last Weeks' - 5,000 Evacuated As Canary Islands Volcano Eruption Worsens | ZeroHedge

Here's a four page paper discussing the possible threats.

La_Palma_grl.pdf (ucsc.edu)

My house in NJ sits at approximately 950', so I don't think we'd get lapped.

Note: It's had several thousand earthquakes to go along with an unspecified number of eruptions.

Edited September 20, 20215 yr by 45Doll
Note added.

43 minutes ago, 45Doll said:

If you know anything about the Canary Islands, and specifically the Cumbre Vieja volcano on La Palma, you know about the landslide threat posed by an eruption. That landslide, depending on it's size, could produce a tsunami that would wash up on the entire eastern seaboard of the United States.

That volcano has had several thousand eruptions over the last five to ten days and is now spewing lava all over the island. I saw a very detailed video analysis of this volcano and the island several years ago, and the threat posed to the U.S. is no joke. If a landslide big enough to threaten the eastern U.S. did occur, we'd have about nine hours warning before it hit, depending on what state you lived in. Do you think they'd announce it and cause a stampede?

'Could Last Weeks' - 5,000 Evacuated As Canary Islands Volcano Eruption Worsens | ZeroHedge

Here's a four page paper discussing the possible threats.

La_Palma_grl.pdf (ucsc.edu)

My house in NJ sits at approximately 950', so I don't think we'd get lapped.

 

Could the tsunami kindly wait until after the new owners close on the house, and we are out of here? 

 

5 minutes ago, Displaced Texan said:

Could the tsunami kindly wait until after the new owners close on the house, and we are out of here? 

Too late to take out flood insurance?

Here's the good news. If a tsunami does hit they'll blame it on climate change.

And Trump.

4 minutes ago, 45Doll said:

 

Too late to take out flood insurance?

Here's the good news. If a tsunami does hit they'll blame it on climate change.

And Trump.

They would blame it on Trump anyway. 

So a trip to the store for eggs, bread and milk isn't  going to suffice this time?

More good news. If New York City and Philadelphia are inundated and removed from the equation, New York and Pennsylvania instantly turn Red.

If Miami goes too then Florida is a lock.

1 minute ago, siderman said:

So a trip to the store for eggs, bread and milk isn't  going to suffice this time?

Yeah, no.  If we did get ~20 foot waves hitting NJ shoreline I think generators and guzzoline/diesel would be more immediate concerns.

Holy crap!  Thanks for the heads up.  Pretty sure we will be safe in Wayne, but our place in Seaside Park could take a beating.

I SAW something about this earlier today. i think they said in this area the wave would come about 13 miles inland?

17 minutes ago, 1LtCAP said:

I SAW something about this earlier today. i think they said in this area the wave would come about 13 miles inland?

No definite predictions are possible without knowing the exact size, shape and placement of the initiating landslide. And even knowing that the waveforms would still be an estimate based on a model, and the incursion into the continent in specific places would vary widely because of the disparate terrain characteristics.

If you look at a topographical map of your area of interest and compare the anticipated wave height to the elevation curves you can get an idea of how far in it would go at that location. Bigger wave = further inland.

According to that article I posted one of the worst case scenarios would put 82 to 98 foot waves on Florida's beaches. How far inland would you have to go to find land 100 feet above sea level?

This tells me a lot!

uz
surf (r,t) =
0
¥ò
dw k(w)
2pu(w)cosh(k(w)h)
dr0
A(t)
ò J 0(k(w) r - r0 )
´ dt 0u˙ z
bot (r0 ,t0)cos[ w(t - t 0)]
 

I'm at 52' above sea level and 50 miles inland so I figure my basement might get wet.

 "Waves generated by the run-out of a 500 km3 (150 km3 ) slide block at 100 m/s could transit the entire Atlantic Basin and arrive on the coasts of the Americas with 10-25 m (3-8 m) height."

So worse case scenario is 10-25 meter waves.  And "best case" scenario for this event would be 3-8 meter waves.

Frightful thought.  But given the history of such events occuring it seems extemely rare.  And even if it did occur what are the odds it would be "worse case" scenario?

Risk you take living near the ocean I guess.  Luckily for me to be concerned it would have to be a laser guided wave directly into the Raritan Bay.  I would have plenty of time to high tail it up the Watchung Mountains.  We are surrounded by streams were I live.  A worse case scenario would be rather devastating to a large part of NJ I would assume.

I'm not losing sleep over this scenario though.

Gee, I hope it doesn't hit the capitalistic Obama compound on diverse Martha's Vineyard.  

I'm a mile from the beach. I guess I should cancel my lawn service?

24 minutes ago, Danno said:

I'm a mile from the beach. I guess I should cancel my lawn service?

Yes, cancel.  Use the money you save for the stuff below!

36 minutes ago, gleninjersey said:

 "Waves generated by the run-out of a 500 km3 (150 km3 ) slide block at 100 m/s could transit the entire Atlantic Basin and arrive on the coasts of the Americas with 10-25 m (3-8 m) height."

So worse case scenario is 10-25 meter waves.  And "best case" scenario for this event would be 3-8 meter waves.
 

I think there is a typo in the linked article. It should read “10-25 ft (3-8 m) height”. 

8 minutes ago, 10X said:

I think there is a typo in the linked article. It should read “10-25 ft (3-8 m) height”. 

Here's the paragraph I quoted:

"At 9 hours (Figure 4i), Florida faces the tsunami, now parading in a dozen cycles or more. In 50 m of water offshore Cape Canaveral, even after being weakened by geometrical spreading and frequency dispersion, tsunami from lateral collapses of the volume, dimension, and speed of that expected at La Palma could retain 20-25 m height. Shoaling waves do not continue to grow much in water shallower than their height, so 20-25 m probably reflects the terminal height of the waves expected on Florida's beaches."

I'm not losing any sleep over this either, or when the next ELE will occur. For me it could be a bus on Route 80, or a terminal bacteria in an infected cut.

However, the people in Java, Sumatra and Banda Aceh weren't losing sleep over Krakatoa in 1883 or the Indian Ocean quake in 2004. They just died.

Whose up for a couple beers?

I am 13.84 miles in a straight line from the southern tip of Perth Amboy, at an elevation of 220' above sea level.

Do I need  to buy a boat?

i'm in near philthy. only thing i think i gotta worry about is if a significant wave manages to trav el up the del. river......

48 minutes ago, 1LtCAP said:

i'm in near philthy. only thing i think i gotta worry about is if a significant wave manages to trav el up the del. river......

Your biggest concern would be syringes from Kensington washing over your property....

As Glen mentioned, this seems like a very infrequent event.  I remember reading news stories about the possibility of this something like 20 or 30 years ago.

How many times has this happened in the last 500 years?  I don’t think too many times.

13 hours ago, 45Doll said:

No definite predictions are possible without knowing the exact size, shape and placement of the initiating landslide. And even knowing that the waveforms would still be an estimate based on a model, and the incursion into the continent in specific places would vary widely because of the disparate terrain characteristics.

If you look at a topographical map of your area of interest and compare the anticipated wave height to the elevation curves you can get an idea of how far in it would go at that location. Bigger wave = further inland.

According to that article I posted one of the worst case scenarios would put 82 to 98 foot waves on Florida's beaches. How far inland would you have to go to find land 100 feet above sea level?

Depends on the part of Florida.  I live about 55 miles from the east coast at about 85 feet.  There is a ridge about 80-120 feet high that is about 40 miles inland from the cost.  It runs for miles north/south, central FL.   I think I'm good, even if the worst case were to happen since I'm west of it.   Jacksonville, Daytona, the Space Coast, Miami....ooof.  That's going to be a mess.

That said, other scientists have run the models, and put the risk for most of the east coast at about 1-2 meters.  

Now, Tsunami is not waves.   A 1 meter Tsunami is the water level rising 1 meter, not a 1 meter breaker.    It's still a devastating event for the seaboard, but inland, up a few feet, not so much.

 

 

14 hours ago, Kevin125 said:

Your biggest concern would be syringes from Kensington washing over your property....

As Glen mentioned, this seems like a very infrequent event.  I remember reading news stories about the possibility of this something like 20 or 30 years ago.

How many times has this happened in the last 500 years?  I don’t think too many times.

I see those around my town from city people bringing their city shiit via the high speedline

I have heard that an effective way to reduce so-called global warming is global cooling from a large volcano blast into the upper atmosphere.  However the effects of such are not the greatest for human civilization. 

That aside, the tsunami possibility is very concerning.  I want the Canary Islands to be known for Columbus' starting point, not a tsunami starting point.

2 minutes ago, father-of-three said:

I have heard that an effective way to reduce so-called global warming is global cooling from a large volcano blast into the upper atmosphere.  However the effects of such are not the greatest for human civilization.

Yep. Check out Mount Tambora in 1815 (the year without a summer) or Krakatoa in 1883. There's a 90 minute docudrama on YouTube about Krakatoa that's pretty good.

Throw a couple hundred cubic kilometers of ash, lava and gas into the upper atmosphere and then chill.

I've been reading and watching about volcanoes and earthquakes since I was about eight. I read "All About Volcanoes And Earthquakes" and I've been hooked ever since.

26 minutes ago, father-of-three said:

I have heard that an effective way to reduce so-called global warming is global cooling from a large volcano blast into the upper atmosphere.  However the effects of such are not the greatest for human civilization. 

That aside, the tsunami possibility is very concerning.  I want the Canary Islands to be known for Columbus' starting point, not a tsunami starting point.

want global cooling? i gotz tha answer!!!  we can set up a date. worldwide. everyone turn on their air conditioners at the same time.

 

<ducks n runs>

2 hours ago, 45Doll said:

Throw a couple hundred cubic kilometers of ash, lava and gas into the upper atmosphere and then chill.

I see what you did there.

Oh swell.

More drama queen news from the tri state "happy" weathermen.  

"CLIMATE CHANGE"   The sky is falling according to cory's drama club clowns.

They can crybaby along with traitor joe at the Useless Nation's blowfest this week.

Me - I'm going swimming like I do every day. I'll bring my surfboard and set a record  LOL

 

 

The situation is literally hell on Earth for the locals, but we're very likely going to be fine here.

The biggest threat is the toxic gas that will surely spew out towards the rest of Europe.

It might be a few days... or weeks... or months... but once the lava stops flowing and things settle, it will hopefully put the mega-tsunami fears to rest for some time longer.

Bigger risk is the mega-volcano under Yellowstone.  

BIGGEST risk is loss of more rights as they try to take them to keep us safe.