Cat 4/5 on the panhandle on Sept 30th..  then meanders to directly over NJ as Cat 1 on October 2.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=mslpaNorm

clicks through the numbers on the right (thats "hours ahead") to start advancing it toward 9/30.   watch the development in the Gulf..

another model has it stalling in the gulf as a Cat 2 for 4 days!

check your sump pumps stuff now..

 

And generators and food & fuel...

too early to tell.

https://www.cyclocane.com/tropical-storm-risk/#atl

From the NHC:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

Western Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is producing shower and thunderstorm activity a
couple hundred miles east of the southern Windward Islands. The
system continues to show signs of organization, and it will likely
become a tropical depression within the next couple of days. The
disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward across the
southern Windward Islands today and then move toward the central
Caribbean Sea later this week. Interests in the Windward Islands
should closely monitor the progress of this system as heavy rainfall
and gusty winds are affecting these islands.  Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall is forecast to affect northwestern
Venezuela, northeastern Colombia, and the ABC island chain later
this week.  
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

 

Another one forming on the Pacific coast side of Mexico too...

GFS model updates every 6 hours. i will post updates here just for the sake of potential preparedness..  Especially if you have interests in western FL.   Category 4/5 probably requires evacuation.

12pm GFS model update.. i'm not posting these because i think it will happen i am posting these because if it plays out its catastrophic.   It will now stall in the Gulf for about 4 days pounding the gulf states.   then when it flows up to NJ on Oct 3 it appears to stall over NJ for about 24 hours because its bumping into what i think is Gaston.  It would be just under a Cat 1 during that time.

If you think a near cat 1 hovering over NJ for 24 hours is a bad thing..   then its time to pay attention..  model is below:
 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=mslpaNorm

 

Looks like it IS going to happen.  Thanks for the heads up.

Both GFS and Euro model have it spending SEVERAL days spinning in the gulf as MAJOR hurricane.   this is incredible..   Harvey that put 3 feet of rain on Houston stalled specifically at the land.   This appears to be more in the middle of the gulf but 4 days?  how far can the rain bands travel?   what is storm surge like if its 4 days?   the fate of NJ is unknown..  i will update often only because the stall over us was concerning.

.. dont get me started about the other two formations to the east also..   next week there could be 5 named systems in the atlantic at one time, with 3 of them being actual hurricanes.

38 minutes ago, Barms said:

. dont get me started about the other two formations to the east also..   next week there could be 5 named systems in the atlantic at one time, with 3 of them being actual hurricanes.

It's Trump's fault!

The forecasters are focused on the Gulf and panhandle at the moment.

Next Tropical Threat Could Become Major Hurricane With Crosshairs On US Gulf Refineries | ZeroHedge

https://www.cyclocane.com/

https://www.cyclocane.com/tropical-storm-risk/#atl

Oh boy - Jamaica and the Cayman Islands are right in the path of this one too...

 

49 minutes ago, Krdshrk said:

Oh boy - Jamaica and the Cayman Islands are right in the path of this one too...

 

Not for long.

6 PM updates are showing NJ a lot less dangerous..  none are showing a "hurricane" over NJ anymore.  thats great news.    the models for 98L are now just a function of it is pounds the Gulf side of FL or the north eastern side.  Jacksonville..     but good news for NJ so far.. 

lest we forget that IDA last year was not a hurricane but a tropical storm..  and there are still two more maybe formations in the Atlantic..

I'm sorry i project concern too much..  i used to live in a flood zone and it really changes your outlook on things.

 

 

 

 

 

turned into a big nothingburger in my little corner. although....a tree fell in the riteaid parking lot

8 minutes ago, 1LtCAP said:

turned into a big nothingburger in my little corner. although....a tree fell in the riteaid parking lot

Musta been a real small tree!

59 minutes ago, Barms said:

6 PM updates are showing NJ a lot less dangerous..  none are showing a "hurricane" over NJ anymore.  thats great news.    the models for 98L are now just a function of it is pounds the Gulf side of FL or the north eastern side.  Jacksonville..     but good news for NJ so far.. 

lest we forget that IDA last year was not a hurricane but a tropical storm..  and there are still two more maybe formations in the Atlantic..

I'm sorry i project concern too much..  i used to live in a flood zone and it really changes your outlook on things.

 

 

 

 

 

I grew up in a house that sat on a spring (Somerset County).  ANY moderate amount of rainfall meant that my brothers and I were bailing water to assist the sump pumps.  To this day, I still look at heavy rainfall and power outages differently than most people.

37 minutes ago, dilbert1967 said:

I grew up in a house that sat on a spring (Somerset County).  ANY moderate amount of rainfall meant that my brothers and I were bailing water to assist the sump pumps.  To this day, I still look at heavy rainfall and power outages differently than most people.

Yeah, everytime some idiot on the news says "we need the rain" I'm like shut up!

This is N.J. not southern California, its gonna rain eventually, a LOT, it always does. 

11 hours ago, JohnnyB said:

Musta been a real small tree!

sorta....you've been to my shop....remember those oaks that lined the riteaid parking lot? one of those came down. i think trunk diameter around 18"?

12 hours ago, Barms said:

I'm sorry i project concern too much..  i used to live in a flood zone and it really changes your outlook on things.

No worries, that's why I said "too early to tell".  With the present models it won't even be in Florida until Wednesday.  From my experience a lot can change from the initial models, it already has.  Ever since moving to CHS in 2018 I watch hurricane season like a hawk.

6 am model updates:   FL is gonna be toast in these runs..   the best case scenario is it doesnt stall.   the worst case is it comes up the keys and rips diagonally across central FL over a 3 day period before exiting by Jacksonville.   i dont remember the storm in 2004 i think it was that ripped through central FL and tore all the roofs off and subequently i think building codes changed after that..

for NJ the GFS model has it fizzling out way before it reaches us.. the CMC model has it over NJ as a Trop storm.  about October 2nd..

link again for models:  https://spaghettimodels.com/     then in upper left click "GFS" or "EURO" or "CMC"    then on the right hand side advance the hours/days ahead and look to the formation in the gulf..

 

noon update shifting back to the west as opposed to cutting a swathe across central FL.  its kind of amazing watching these model runs every 6 hours..   Shift more toward panhandle is better for NJ we want it to die out before it gets up to us..  However IDA last year was in midwest the entire time before it got to us and we got flooded with water..  110mph seems to be concensus though across models for FL..

the GFS model was a panhandle strike yesteray, then ovenight it went to across central FL.. now its back to the panhandle..

coast guard has issued the "secure your boats warning for FL.   i'll post again tomorrow afternoon.

 

 

Named storm now - Ian.

On 9/22/2022 at 9:37 PM, dilbert1967 said:

I grew up in a house that sat on a spring (Somerset County).  ANY moderate amount of rainfall meant that my brothers and I were bailing water to assist the sump pumps.  To this day, I still look at heavy rainfall and power outages differently than most people.

That's why I bought my house at the top of a hill. The basement will never need a sump pump. I literally refused to buy a house that had one installed, or appeared to require one. 

Not much land is flat here, which sucks on some other levels for the kids to play, but the peace of mind is worth it. 

For a lot of people they kind get stuck buying where ever is convenient, water damage ain't no frigging joke.. growing up my parents house always had water issues with a shallow water table and brook running through the back yard.

36 minutes ago, Krdshrk said:

Named storm now - Ian.

Ugh...that 8AM Thurs is in my front yard. Still early but not looking good now.

For the NOAA novice, what does the S, H and M in the black dots signify?

noon model updates..  its shifting westward..  it no longer will cut across FL instead it is staying in the gulf but by staying in the gulf it is invoking a STALL.  All 3 models have it in the gulf for AT LEAST 3 days before exiting.   Also, the models are saying its a Cat 3/4 for sure.   One one hand its a gift its not cutting across central Florida but if it stalls in the gulf the rain will be outrageous for 3 days non stop.

good news for NJ it appears to be fizzing out by the time it goes over us October 2nd.   However, i have no idea how much rain it could still bring with it.   remember some of our worst flooding came from former 'canes now just "storms".

 

4 minutes ago, 45Doll said:

For the NOAA novice, what does the S, H and M in the black dots signify?

"storm"  "hurricane"  "major hurricane"

 

14 minutes ago, Barms said:

"storm"  "hurricane"  "major hurricane"

LOL I thought of storm and hurricane and those seemed obvious. But the M threw me.

Thanks.

P.S. I wonder what would cause the F designator to be employed. 

How this thing just lingers on FL for 72 hours from Wed to Saturday is just incredible.   I’m guessing the evacuation lines are gonna be bonkers.   

35 minutes ago, Barms said:

How this thing just lingers on FL for 72 hours from Wed to Saturday is just incredible.   I’m guessing the evacuation lines are gonna be bonkers.   

I haven't been paying attention to weather in FL, but I heard this morning from their disaster recovery chief their ground is already saturated from extensive summer rain. So he expects uprooted trees to be a major issue, as well as flooding.