IMHO better to be prepared, than not.

Are you willing to bet your life (and those of your loved ones) that NONE of what she writes is true?

Those who don't know history are doomed to repeat it, I'm afraid.

Life itself is cyclical.

 

So, with a grain of salt ...

 

http://news.yahoo.co...158.html?_esi=1

 

Will the US Really Experience a Violent Upheaval in 2020?

By Natalie Wolchover | LiveScience.com – Fri, Aug 3, 2012

 

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Circa 1870, the North fought the South in the Civil War. Half a century later, around 1920, worker unrest, racial tensions and anti-Communist sentiment caused another nationwide upsurge of violence. Then, 50 years later, the Vietnam War and Civil Rights Movement triggered a third peak in violent political, social and racial conflict. Fifty years after that will be 2020. If history continues to repeat itself, we can expect a violent upheaval in the United States in a few years.

 

It sounds like pseudoscience, but it's a published theory. "My model suggests that the next [peak in violence] will be worse than the one in 1970 because demographic variables such as wages, standards of living and a number of measures of intra-elite confrontation are all much worse this time," said Peter Turchin, an ecologist, evolutionary biologist and mathematician at the University of Connecticut.

 

Turchin has led the development of a field of study called "cliodynamics," in which scientists attempt to find meaningful patterns in history. The endeavor flies in the face of the traditional study of history, which assumes the countless variables interacting within a society lead to chaotic fluctuations in outcomes like violence and social unrest. Massimo Pigliucci, a philosopher of science at CUNY-Lehman College, said most historians believe that "the factors at play are so many and so variable that there is little reason to expect quasi-regular cycles, or a unified theory to explain them."

 

But Turchin argues there is order in the chaos after all. [Infographic: Cycles Violence in the U.S.]

In the new study, Turchin, who reported his results in the July issue of the Journal of Peace Research, compiled historical data about violent incidents in U.S. history between 1780 and 2010, including riots, terrorism, assassinations and rampages. The data indicates that a cycle of violence repeats itself every 50 years in America, like a wave that peaks in every other generation. This short-term cycle is superimposed over another, longer-term oscillation that repeats every 200 to 300 years. The slower waves in violence can either augment or suppress the 50-year peaks, depending on how the two cycles overlap.

 

The longer cycle is "the one which we understand much better, and it is a universal feature of all complex societies," Turchin told Life's Little Mysteries. From the Roman Empire to medieval France to ancient China, scholars have noted that societies swing between 100-150 years of relative peace and 100-150 years of conflict, and then back again. Only some societies exhibit the shorter-term, and less subtle, 50-year-long cycles of violence along the way — the Roman Empire, for one, and if Turchin's theory is correct, the United States as well.

 

Why 50-year cycles? Turchin explained that a surge of violence begins in the same way as a forest fire: explosively. After a period of escalation followed by sustained violence, citizens begin to "yearn for the return of stability and an end to fighting," he wrote in his paper. The prevailing social mood swings toward stifling the violence at all costs, and those who directly experienced the civil violence maintain the peace for about a human generation — 20 or 30 years. But the stability doesn't last.

 

Eventually, "the conflict-scarred generation dies off or retires, and a new cohort arises, people who did not experience the horrors of civil war and are not immunized against it. If the long-term social forces that brought about the first outbreak of internal hostilities are still operating, then the society will slide into the second civil war," he wrote. "As a result, periods of intense conflict tend to recur with a period of roughly two generations (40–60 years)."

 

Peaks occurred around 1870, 1920 and 1970. Confounding this pattern, there was no peak of U.S. violence in the 1820s. In fact, historians call it the "era of good feelings." Turchin explained that social variables such as wages and employment were "really excellent at that time, so there was no reason for any violence to get going." The cycle was skipped. [Do Recessions Increase Violent Crimes?]

 

But we might not be so lucky this time around. If Turchin's model is right, then the current polarization and inequality in American society will come to a head in 2020. "After the last eight years or so, notice how the discourse in our political class has become fragmented. It's really unprecedented for the last 100 years. So basically by all measures, there are social pressures for instability that are much worse than 50 years ago."

 

Pigliucci, who writes a well-known blog on pseudoscience and skeptical thinking, says that although he believes Turchin is "moving in the right direction" by applying mathematical models to history, in this case he might be seeing patterns in random data. Violence and other forms of social unrest undoubtedly vary over time within any give society, Pigliucci said, but most historians would say these fluctuations are random.

 

Pigliucci isn't convinced that the 50-year cycle of violence Turchin has identified in U.S. history reflects more than just a random fluctuation. "The database is too short: the entire study covers the period 1780-2010, a mere 230 years," Pigliucci wrote in an email. "You can fit at most four 50-year peaks and two secular ones. I just don't see how one could reasonably exclude that the observed pattern is random. But of course we would have to wait a lot longer to collect new data and find out."

 

Only time will tell if the cycle of U.S. violence holds true, and another telltale peak — or lack thereof — is only a few years away.

Follow Natalie Wolchover on Twitter @nattyover or Life's Little Mysteries @llmysteries. We're also on Facebook & Google+.

• The 10 Most Destructive Human Behaviors
  
• Fight, Fight, Fight: The History of Human Aggression
  
• Math Formula May Explain Why Serial Killers Kill
  

Copyright 2012 Lifes Little Mysteries, a TechMediaNetwork company. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

2. No posting of random news articles without at least a paragraph about what made you post it or your opinion.

No one cares to see a post with a link. If anyone wants to see whats going on in the news, we will go to a news sites. NJGF is not Drudge Report. I opened the post to see why it inspired you.

 

Do the recent Sneaker Riots in Florida count? How about the yearly "Black Friday trampleings? I think the cycle may be a little off.

why worry about 2020 when we haven't got past 12/21/12 yet

It's already been proven the whole 12/21 won't happen. It would've been like last year sometime since the Mayans didn't account for leap year or some shit..

 

I do however think the cycle has some merit.. I've been saying something similar for a while now. Wife and friends think I'm crazy...

History does repeat itself. Deny it all you want and talk about my tin foil hat I don't care. Through out history is always happens. Theories are theories nothing more. But patterns hold a little more ground in my book. When the 2 support eachother well its more believable. I wouldn't hold anything down to an exact year but if things don't change it won't be good. The government will do whatever it takes to preserve the union. The civil war showed us that. Right now there are a few states very pissed off at the fed. Some say we are 10 years away from what's happening in Greece. Some say we are the roman empire. Personally I think we are our own monster and it's up to the people to either rise above it or be doomed. The problem is the American people are seriously like sheep. They go where the are told and play right into the hands of the media. Something if not changed states will leave. Arizona has already had enough of the fed and if you go after guns Texas will not play dead. I'm not sure if anyone would go with them but I see it as a possibility.

why worry about 2020 when we haven't got past 12/21/12 yet

 

I'm more worried about getting past Tuesday November 6, 2012.....if you get my drift.

I'm more worried about getting past Tuesday November 6, 2012.....if you get my drift.

 

I see what you did there...

That day means a lot to this country. I think more then we even know.

I'm a firm believer in cycle's; be it weather, economics, or whatever. I can't say that in 2020 there will be a great upheaval. If you think about it, we're already dealing with a fair amount of civil unrest now. Could we already be within the cycle and this is the worst it will get? Time will tell, but it can never hurt to be a little prepared just the same.

 

 

That day means a lot to this country. I think more then we even know.

 

After seeing the so called "changes" that have been (and are yet to be) implemented thus far, I couldn't agree more.

I'm more worried about getting past Tuesday November 6, 2012.....if you get my drift.

+1

It's already been proven the whole 12/21 won't happen. It would've been like last year sometime since the Mayans didn't account for leap year or some shit..

The mayan calendar is of the cyclic type. They worked on the numbers 13 and 20.  Their calendar wasn't based on days. Leap years weren't implemented until several hundred years ago. Their calendar is actually a mathematical equation, which is accurate to within 34 seconds of today. However, he Mayans also believed the world was created in 3,114 B.C. Their "Long Count" ends on what is OUR 12-21-12. They also reference the celebration of a long deceased King, somewhere in the 4k era (don't remember the actual date). So they alone reference life after 2012. There are no actual scriptures or carvings of what they thought would happen. This is because during the Spanish Inquisition, a Fryar thought that the Mayan scriptures were work of the Devil and ordered them to be destroyed. Anything more than what defined their culture was destroyed. Just a little history for you guys.

It's already been proven the whole 12/21 won't happen. It would've been like last year sometime since the Mayans didn't account for leap year or some shit..

 

I do however think the cycle has some merit.. I've been saying something similar for a while now. Wife and friends think I'm crazy...

 

Don't you think astronomers accounted for that when they translated the Mayan calendar to the Gregoriancalendar?

Don't you think astronomers accounted for that when they translated the Mayan calendar to the Gregoriancalendar?

 

Of course not. Just like a future event has somehow already been proven to not happen...........................

 

Adam is clearly a time traveler from the future.

I'm prepared either way.

why worry about 2020 when we haven't got past 12/21/12 yet

+1

I'm more worried about getting past Tuesday November 6, 2012.....if you get my drift.

I have a feeling there will be a stronger reaction from this day than anything else between now and 2020.. Could be a multitude of different things. Think about it...

Wait, because these people

think the world is gonna end I'm supposed to believe that?

 

No

they never said the world would end. it was a changing.....the 'ending' of the 5th world and beginning of the 6th world.

Wait, because these people

think the world is gonna end I'm supposed to believe that?

 

No

 

"Those people" knew how many planets were in our solar system, well over a thousand years before any other recorded astronomer. I'd be inclined to believe a lot of what they say.

 

However, as said before by a couple others and myself in my last post, they never actually said that the end was going to happen. They also referenced a celebration a couple thousand years from now. Therefore even THEY believed that life would continue, hence, no apocalypse.

I am so sick of hearing about the end of the mayan calendar. When nothing happens they will just make excuses. Just shut up and enjoy life. Fuggin obsessive nutjobs. Who cares

2020? that's like 8 years away !?!? too damn long.

I'm not getting any younger u know... THEY need to move it along ... I'm already bored as it is ..

 

 

 

 

 

I am being sarcastic of course.

it's a joke.

Being Semper Paratus takes care of everything.

I find the Mayan culture and history to be very interesting. Being that they were an extremely smart civilization, I tend to believe what they discovered and something is going to happen this December. I dont think that it's going to be a catastrophic occurence that will change things over night, but a gradual change that might take years to see its effect. I think most people will see nothing happen on that day. I just think that something will start on that day that will slowly start changing things within out world and our people.

 

Me? I'm still buying X-mas presents for everyone in my family, still going to schedule my vacation time for next year and I'm not going to max out my credit cards. I am, however, still going to be prepared. Not so much for the "change" that might/might not happen, but from the other people out there that think it IS the end of the world and will go out and cause turmoil.

I can't wait to deal with all the nut job doomsdayers at work the closer we get to the date

I can't wait to deal with all the nut job doomsdayers at work the closer we get to the date

 

You mean co-workers? lol

my prediction for the mayan end of the world is.......... nothing. maybe a heavens gate type suicide somewhere but itll be another y2k.

I find the Mayan culture and history to be very interesting. Being that they were an extremely smart civilization, I tend to believe what they discovered and something is going to happen this December. I dont think that it's going to be a catastrophic occurence that will change things over night, but a gradual change that might take years to see its effect. I think most people will see nothing happen on that day. I just think that something will start on that day that will slowly start changing things within out world and our people.

 

Me? I'm still buying X-mas presents for everyone in my family, still going to schedule my vacation time for next year and I'm not going to max out my credit cards. I am, however, still going to be prepared. Not so much for the "change" that might/might not happen, but from the other people out there that think it IS the end of the world and will go out and cause turmoil.

 

Exactly

"Those people" knew how many planets were in our solar system, well over a thousand years before any other recorded astronomer. I'd be inclined to believe a lot of what they say.

 

However, as said before by a couple others and myself in my last post, they never actually said that the end was going to happen. They also referenced a celebration a couple thousand years from now. Therefore even THEY believed that life would continue, hence, no apocalypse.

 

And they were conquered by a hand full of soldiers and some cannons.

YOu diminish the conquest somewhat. It took over 170 years for the Spanish to gain a solid foothold in Mayan lands. And, even then...they didn't eradicate the Mayans because they couldn't. The existence of the mestixo races of Central America is testimony to the Mayan Civilization. Mexico isn't Spanish...nor Guatemala, Honduras, Belize, etc.

 

Something the Dutch and English did in the North that the Spanish didn't was enter into contracts with Native Americans as a means to subjugate them....pit them against each other.

 

When the Spanish couldn't 'BOOM' the Mayans out of existence...they 'BANGED' them out....get it?