I learned from experience during the Great Internet Bubble of CA 2000:

1) Do not trade on fundimemtals because things can be great fundimentally; but no way of telling what has already been priced into the asset...This is especially true of commodities and metals.

2) Trade based on Technical Analysis - ie charts etc.

3) Never ever listen to the Gurus ESPECILLY when they are all saying the same thing!

 

Gold hit a bubble peak in september 2011 - classic peak (everyone was selling it on CNBC; all your budies own it)....3 times since, it attempted to get near the old high - couldn't do it...It has been forming a huge decending triangle of sorts since - very bearish! - You can see what happen when the bottom of the triangle broke Friday - Niagra Falls!...I have made some money shorting this...Gold suppose to go up when Terrorist Blow things up - yesterday it fell big time....What does that tell you?

 

As far as the future? I learned the hard way not to make predictions...I trade what the charts "tell me"...Has it sold-off enough to bottome? Let's see what the charts say in a few days/weeks...

 

The Administrators should set up a perminate NJ Gun Forum Trading Folder...It would be great fun/keep us busy as we wait for our pistol permits to be approved ;-)! - Can we do this?

Gold is retesting the low from mid-april at this time...(IF) it holds, it (might) be a good long entry - "double bottom"....No guarentees of course with trading/investing.

Gold dipping below $1,300/oz.

I am not big on pure commodity plays (lead and brass excepted) but I have been thinking for awhile that I should be short Au.  The bubbles always seem to last longer than I expect, but this one is finally coming back down.

I thought it was said on here somewhere that ammo prices should fluctuate with metals because of producer costs. Well I'm not seeing ammo down to 2011 levels as that's where copper is now (but obviously there's probably a lag)

Im actually hoping gold continues to fall and goes below $1,000 oz if it does half of these cash for gold places are going to start sinking faster then they popped up. I have a Pawn Shop so I deal with many other things but the influx of these cash for gold stores have imapacted the amount of jewelry I buy although alot of people prefer to just pawn rather than sell

Im actually hoping gold continues to fall and goes below $1,000 oz if it does half of these cash for gold places are going to start sinking faster then they popped up. I have a Pawn Shop so I deal with many other things but the influx of these cash for gold stores have imapacted the amount of jewelry I buy although alot of people prefer to just pawn rather than sell

Where is your shop?  I'm always on the hunt for decent power tools and such.  Do you carry those?

I thought it was said on here somewhere that ammo prices should fluctuate with metals because of producer costs. Well I'm not seeing ammo down to 2011 levels as that's where copper is now (but obviously there's probably a lag)

I think at this point brass could be free and the prices would not drop that much. Until we see a good supply in the market prices will remain inflated.

Hammertime again, courtesy of the Fed announcing the end of QE.

 

Gold slumping towards $1,200, silver about to break $17.00

yea man , watching closely ... QE coda news was expected , i'm hoping gold cracks a little further.. 1800 level

Silver $16.50/16.60 ish. How long ago was it in the $40's?  3 years ago?

And there goes gold under $1,200...

And there goes gold under $1,200...

 

Wish I had some cash around to buy up a bunch of it.

Wish I had some cash around to buy up a bunch of it.

don't worry , you'll get a chance again i think .. at much lower prices to boot

Todd Hoffman can't catch a break LOL

LOL .. yea .. he went from Alaska to South America and back again with not much to show for it  .. that is a tough racket ..i think he would happily trade his Discovery check for a real "discovery" 

LOL .. yea .. he went from Alaska to South America and back again with not much to show for it  .. that is a tough racket ..i think he would happily trade his Discovery check for a real "discovery" 

 

The word is he pulls 22k per episode and he gets something on the back end because he's the show's creator.

 

His father, and a few others also get some big numbers as well.    Dakota Fred and Dustin were getting 1k per and were fed up with all the BS related to it.

don't worry , you'll get a chance again i think .. at much lower prices to boot

 

 

Well all commodities are taking a hit. The question is why. RIght now I think most of it is consumer demand and the big investors trying to get some cash to cover margin call and other fallout of the current hit to securities. Metals also had the chinese scam to get around lending laws shut down, and that gold, silve, copper, etc. That had to sit in a warehouse to play that game has to go someplace. 

 

Silver is pretty much at or below.  If gold goes to $920-ish , you effectively shut down 28% of new supply as that drops below production costs for the African region. Drop to $800, and 46% of your supply is gone. Somewhere between those two numbers, there's going to be a scramble to get back on the upswing as at that point you have a lot of delivery contracts that in theory back the paper gold chasing WAY less gold, all the paper lease printers will see that it's a killer opportunity to shore up their metallic reserves and they are going to want to get ahead of the mining shortage as mines go offline and buy cheap. Add in all the gold bugs, and you'll have way more demand than capacity staring at the possibility of supply being off-line for a year or more. 

Agree with everything you said.. And articulated better than I ever could.. Lol

Price aside, can you think of a time in recorded history when gold and silver weren't desirable?

 

My approach is that silver and gold are either a hedge against short term market swings, or very long term investments, and they can be both at the same time. Anyone buying precious metals as short term money maker needs to really be on the ball and know what they are doing.

 

Also investing a to large portions of one's assets in ANY single thing is probably a bad idea. On the other hand if you don't have a lot of it, this might be a good time

Gold and silver will sink over next 5 years as people put money into rising interest products, bank cds etc, over long term gold and silver will do fine, buy slowly over next few years as products go down in cost.

I like your optimism, you think the interest rates will ever go up without crashing the house cards that is our fiscal system or our government borrowing which has been heavily rotated out of long term treasuries into short term ones.

here we go .. BOJ eases unexpectedly .. gold down $32 ..$1166 last .. 

 

Vlad said:

Anyone buying precious metals as short term money maker needs to really be on the ball and know what they are doing.

 

Also investing a to large portions of one's assets in ANY single thing is probably a bad idea. On the other hand if you don't have a lot of it, this might be a good time

 

agree

Gold for me is a hedge .. but volatility like this always gets my attention. 

here we go .. BOJ eases unexpectedly .. gold down $32 ..$1166 last .. 

 

Vlad said:

Anyone buying precious metals as short term money maker needs to really be on the ball and know what they are doing.

 

Also investing a to large portions of one's assets in ANY single thing is probably a bad idea. On the other hand if you don't have a lot of it, this might be a good time

 

agree

Gold for me is a hedge .. but volatility like this always gets my attention. 

Does a declining price also effect what dealers charge over spot. Lets say silver is $17 an once and dealers are charging $1.50 over spot. If silver dives to $10 does the dealer then charge .75 over spot? How does dealer over spot prices work?

I don't think there is a formula but keep in mind they want to make a profit per item. They can only reduce their premium so far. Also making the coin itself costs exactly the same regardless how much the raw material costs, so the mint wants to make its money too.

I could be wrong, but it seems to me that dealers charge a higher amount over spot as prices decline, probably thinking that people will be willing to pay it since the overall price is down.  I know that premiums are currently particularly high for pre-1965 silver coins, which have been in great demand.

Does a declining price also effect what dealers charge over spot. Lets say silver is $17 an once and dealers are charging $1.50 over spot. If silver dives to $10 does the dealer then charge .75 over spot? How does dealer over spot prices work?

Sorry.. I can't type....

 

I think the dealer vig is usually between 5 and 10% over spot. But yes., direct corolation.. Percentage stays the same while spot dictates value.

Resurrecting this thread:

 

 

So Silver dipped into the 13's before rebounding back above 14.  Is this the bottom?  Or just a speed bump on the commodity express straight to hell?

Going just a bit lower yet.  No turn around until world market settles. Not seeing that until Middle East is 'stabilized' a bit.  Markets are slow this holiday season.

Didnt the feds raise the interest rate. That would correlate to precious metals prices.