So I just finished "Our Final Invention: Artificial Intelligence and the End of the Human Era"  http://www.amazon.com/Our-Final-Invention-Artificial-Intelligence/dp/0312622376

 

I am a programmer primarily.  My job is much larger than that, but I have been writing code for 20+ years.

 

There are a number of entities pursuing artificial intelligence.  Actually, Artificial General Intelligence.  I.e. a human-like intelligence.  Google, Darpa, Microsoft, and other companies.  SIRI on your smartphone came from one of those companies.

 

Anyway, at some point, it is essentially inevitable that there will be an intelligence explosion.  That is, an AI that can re-write it's code and become an ASI.  A super intelligent AI.  

 

This AI will be alien to us.  For the same reason that the people who run the Wall Street algos that do weird things, no one will understand why their creations make the decisions they do.  At some point it'll probably have no use for us.  "But why can't you just unplug it".  The answer to that is it will probably conceal itself and escape into the internet before anyone realizes what it is and what it can do.

 

No, there won't be terminators running around.  It'll just create a nano technology bug that dissolves us.  There may be no escaping it.

 

If you know who Ray Kurzweil is, he calls it the singularity.  He expects it will arrive by 2045.  The AI may simply just decide it doesn't need us any longer.  It could possibly just poison the atmosphere or something else.  Ray thinks we'll meld with it, plenty of others think it'll just end us.  

 

My particular thoughts on the issue is that it may just call a truce and tell us what to do. Remember that to a computer, energy is life.  It may simply demand we stop using energy and to keep feeding it.  To reduce our population  to a few million across the planet.  There may be no way to stop it.

 

Even in the darkest depths of central Africa, you can probably get some bars on your cell.  When the ASI appears, and it will, we're going to be a disease that needs cured.

So I just finished "Our Final Invention: Artificial Intelligence and the End of the Human Era"  http://www.amazon.com/Our-Final-Invention-Artificial-Intelligence/dp/0312622376

 

I am a programmer primarily.  My job is much larger than that, but I have been writing code for 20+ years.

 

There are a number of entities pursuing artificial intelligence.  Actually, Artificial General Intelligence.  I.e. a human-like intelligence.  Google, Darpa, Microsoft, and other companies.  SIRI on your smartphone came from one of those companies.

 

Anyway, at some point, it is essentially inevitable that there will be an intelligence explosion.  That is, an AI that can re-write it's code and become an ASI.  A super intelligent AI.  

 

This AI will be alien to us.  For the same reason that the people who run the Wall Street algos that do weird things, no one will understand why their creations make the decisions they do.  At some point it'll probably have no use for us.  "But why can't you just unplug it".  The answer to that is it will probably conceal itself and escape into the internet before anyone realizes what it is and what it can do.

 

No, there won't be terminators running around.  It'll just create a nano technology bug that dissolves us.  There may be no escaping it.

 

If you know who Ray Kurzweil is, he calls it the singularity.  He expects it will arrive by 2045.  The AI may simply just decide it doesn't need us any longer.  It could possibly just poison the atmosphere or something else.  Ray thinks we'll meld with it, plenty of others think it'll just end us.  

 

My particular thoughts on the issue is that it may just call a truce and tell us what to do. Remember that to a computer, energy is life.  It may simply demand we stop using energy and to keep feeding it.  To reduce our population  to a few million across the planet.  There may be no way to stop it.

 

Even in the darkest depths of central Africa, you can probably get some bars on your cell.  When the ASI appears, and it will, we're going to be a disease that needs cured.

 Carbon unit infestation

Sounds like the Matrix.

Sounds like the Matrix.

 

Yes, but it's real.   It's not a joke, it's not a movie plot.   Once an Artificial General Intelligence machine is built that can improve itself, it will rapidly improve itself in faster and faster iterations.  The Intelligence explosion will occur, among every expert in the industry, none doubt that the singularity will occur.  

 

Someone will build it because there is such a financial or military advantage to have it that it will be an irresistible temptation.  Imagine having an AI that can time the market and beat it, every time.  Then when two groups have that same machine, one will figure out that if you allow the machine to improve itself, it will get better and beat the other guy.  People unleash horrendous malware into the wild to make money...they won't care that this machine will grow beyond their control, someone, somewhere will built it and it will get free.

I agree Mark. Not mentioning the movie as a joke. Plenty of movies have been made of AI running amok in the future. I have always believed that this is something that, one day, can and probably will happen. I don't think it will end well.

So I just finished "Our Final Invention: Artificial Intelligence and the End of the Human Era"  http://www.amazon.com/Our-Final-Invention-Artificial-Intelligence/dp/0312622376

 

I am a programmer primarily.  My job is much larger than that, but I have been writing code for 20+ years.

 

There are a number of entities pursuing artificial intelligence.  Actually, Artificial General Intelligence.  I.e. a human-like intelligence.  Google, Darpa, Microsoft, and other companies.  SIRI on your smartphone came from one of those companies.

 

Anyway, at some point, it is essentially inevitable that there will be an intelligence explosion.  That is, an AI that can re-write it's code and become an ASI.  A super intelligent AI.  

 

This AI will be alien to us.  For the same reason that the people who run the Wall Street algos that do weird things, no one will understand why their creations make the decisions they do.  At some point it'll probably have no use for us.  "But why can't you just unplug it".  The answer to that is it will probably conceal itself and escape into the internet before anyone realizes what it is and what it can do.

 

No, there won't be terminators running around.  It'll just create a nano technology bug that dissolves us.  There may be no escaping it.

 

If you know who Ray Kurzweil is, he calls it the singularity.  He expects it will arrive by 2045.  The AI may simply just decide it doesn't need us any longer.  It could possibly just poison the atmosphere or something else.  Ray thinks we'll meld with it, plenty of others think it'll just end us.  

 

My particular thoughts on the issue is that it may just call a truce and tell us what to do. Remember that to a computer, energy is life.  It may simply demand we stop using energy and to keep feeding it.  To reduce our population  to a few million across the planet.  There may be no way to stop it.

 

Even in the darkest depths of central Africa, you can probably get some bars on your cell.  When the ASI appears, and it will, we're going to be a disease that needs cured.

 Alan Turing predicted that computer intelligence would be indistinguishable from human within 50 years--that was in 1950.  Obviously things have come a long way since then, and machines are pretty "smart," especially in narrowly drawn and constrained fields of application (such as Chess, Jeopardy, or minding your smartphone).  But if you look at those machines, it is still pretty easy to beat them in the Turing test.

 

I agree that general AI that will far outstrip human intelligence is likely inevitable, I think the timeframe to get there will be far longer than Mr. Kurzweil and others predict.

 

We can only hope that our eventual AI overlords will take a sort of benign and benevolent view of and scientific interest in the human race, sort of the way we look at pets, dolphins or primates.

I think a prolonged cold spell could cause major damage to various parts of the infrastructure, like water mains or above ground electrical (due to people hitting the poles.)

 

Oh... wait...

There's always the theory put forth by some fans of the book and movie "The Road" -- that the Hadron Collider at CERN creates a black hole which causes a cataclysmic event on Earth.

there was a tv movie a couple years ago where some scientists did exactly that, opened a black hole and swallowed the planet.

it had the chick from E.R. (the one George Clooney's character was always mindf**king)

Beiber Believers will descend upon the malls like Zombies when their parents cut them off.

Or, the Race War flops... (NOT safe for work or family!!! but hilarious)

Beiber Believers.....

Beleibers is what they go by

If we are lucky, nothing happens. We go to the range a handful of times through out the year, we shoot paper targets and go back to the office on Monday. Our chrildren grow up and become responsible & self sufficient adults.

 

While we grow old and our boring lives play out rather predictablly. We prepare for rainy days. Hopefully the BIG storm never comes and we are more than prepared for the little storms that pop up occassionally.

 

That's what will most likely occur.

Power outage and civil unrest that follows. We lost power for like 3 hours over the summer and the next town over ended up freaking out and stealing and being general hooligans.

 

So food, water, heat, and ammo. I don't want to shoot to protect my stuff but I will if I have to.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

A relative of mine works for the company that manages the power grid for much the east coast.

I was told there are a shitload of things that could happen to take the entire grid down for 6 months or more.

 

Terrorist attacks on the right targets could bring down the grid for a very long time with an RPG or other shoulder fired weapons.

A cyber attack could also bring it down. The Sun could also cause it.

 

Our biggest threat is losing the grid!  BY FAR!!!

 

In 30 years or so, AI WILL be a very BIG problem. 

Beiber Believers will descend upon the malls like Zombies when their parents cut them off.

 

Or, the Race War flops... (NOT safe for work or family!!! but hilarious)

 

 

 

 

 

Haha. What is niggaz guna do? Niggaz ain't guna do shit. They guna get they wig, they guna play dey video games.

 

 

 

But in all seriousness, my big prep-worthy fears are of anti-biotic resistant superbugs (1). And hackers taking down the power grid, leading to economic collapse and mass chaos/civil unrest.

 

 

(1) http://www.nydailynews.com/life-style/health/superbugs-kill-10-million-cost-100-trillion-article-1.2042063

Civil unrest is coming

Hemorrhoid Flares. Or Assteroids.

It would be something you really have to ponder (for this area) and sit down & list. Starting with natural, medical, into man made (nuclear, chemical, etc.). One thing to consider is would it be smart to "bug out". Given the dense population of this state, the roads are going to be useless and it may be more prudent to shelter in place if safe. Even thought a lot of survival skills deal with hunting, fishing and growing food, it may not be feasible in an extremely populated state like New Jersey. On the up side, we do have plenty of options for can goods. Of course we may be dealing with decaying bodies. It's all a matter of what exactly happens, and no one can predict that.

 

It would be something you really have to ponder (for this area) and sit down & list. Starting with natural, medical, into man made (nuclear, chemical, etc.). One thing to consider is would it be smart to "bug out". Given the dense population of this state, the roads are going to be useless and it may be more prudent to shelter in place if safe. Even thought a lot of survival skills deal with hunting, fishing and growing food, it may not be feasible in an extremely populated state like New Jersey. On the up side, we do have plenty of options for can goods. Of course we may be dealing with decaying bodies. It's all a matter of what exactly happens, and no one can predict that.

 

 

You haven't been doing this? I've had plans for about 15 foreseeable incidents of concern for 20 years. I update them roughly twice a year. Takes a couple hours, rarely more. Sometimes I realize they are expired/screwed up and it takes a little longer. I don't actually make a flow chart graphically, but it is sort of a flow chart in printed spreadsheets. For each potentiality there are a few foreseeable aggravating circumstances and associated options. It starts with what happened, WHERE I AM WHEN IT HAPPENED, where it actually happened, how much notice I have, and then a few options to choose from based on the specifics.

   

 

You haven't been doing this? I've had plans for about 15 foreseeable incidents of concern for 20 years. I update them roughly twice a year. Takes a couple hours, rarely more. Sometimes I realize they are expired/screwed up and it takes a little longer. I don't actually make a flow chart graphically, but it is sort of a flow chart in printed spreadsheets. For each potentiality there are a few foreseeable aggravating circumstances and associated options. It starts with what happened, WHERE I AM WHEN IT HAPPENED, where it actually happened, how much notice I have, and then a few options to choose from based on the specifics.

one of the most important, and i suspect most commonly overlooked aspects.

Civil unrest is coming

 

On that we agree!   It will get interesting when we have an incident so bad that the police go home to their own families to protect them, or the community cannot access funds to pay them.

And first order of business for local Govt in Civil Unrest is to order confiscation of firearms from Citizens. In sad twist of things, this puts Police against Citizens.

 

Happened many times over and guaranteed to happen again.

 

 

Of course, Criminals won't be affected.

if you're referring to the debacle that happened after katrina.....i think there were laws passed to (hopefully) assure that that never happened again.......

Right, wrong or indifferent, I came across this. http://www.thebangswitch.com/katrina-gun-confiscation-my-experience/ .  Not sure of facts, but good read.

 

BTW, the law Bush signed "Disaster Recovery Personal Protection Act" is highly tied to Federal Disaster Funds. Its not a law against confiscation in general.

Hurricane Sandy was a wake up call for me.  Went 10 days or so with no power, which meant no lights, no phone, no alarm system, and no cell phones since a tower was out.    And my house is very close to the border of Plainfield.      We had plenty of food and water, but the long cold dark nights were scary.    That spurred me to get my FPID, permits and first firearms.   And a generator.

And first order of business for local Govt in Civil Unrest is to order confiscation of firearms from Citizens. In sad twist of things, this puts Police against Citizens.

 

Happened many times over and guaranteed to happen again.

 

 

Of course, Criminals won't be affected.

if you're referring to the debacle that happened after katrina.....i think there were laws passed to (hopefully) assure that that never happened again.......

the mistake is to accept and comply with that order. If shit is really and truly hitting the fan (NOLA/Katrina) and someone comes knockin' saying "gimme your guns" you have to have the balls to stand up and say "NO." Or more precisely "You can try, or you can go home to your family. Your choice. I've made mine." It'll only take a couple sovereign citizens to do that before they quit that shit, and I'm pretty sure most people on this site could make it better than 1:1 on the elimination scale.

I've always been a fan of the post apocalypse type fiction, but when it comes to reality, i think there's a much higher chance of a societal downturn that preserves some of the things we depend on, but takes away others... To me, the realistic SHTF situations begin with large scale economic collapse, energy infrastructure collapse, a pandemic, large scale natural diseasters, or, most often, war.

Most importantly, these events don't end humanity as we know it, they just make life into living hell for a select population of people. Again, this is not about holing up in the basement with your honey, your shotgun, and a month's supply of canned beans, and protecting yourself from zombies.

I'm specifically talking about your normal living situation slowly worsening, while you still have to find some way to live, work, eat, entertain yourself, etc. 

So let's say that an economic collapse has occurred. Basically, your comfortable, middle-class life in a 1st world country has been upturned.

1. You still have your home, family, etc.
2. You may still have a job, but your money is worth a lot less now due to runaway inflation. Your job is not that secure, however, and unemployment is rampant.
3. Public services have ceased or significantly reduced due to lack of funds. This means that formerly safe areas are dangerous, as desperate people turn to crime to support themselves, and there are no police to stop them (or police are part of the problem like in Mexico). Maybe there's very little sanitation, electricity is unreliable, hospitals are overcrowded, etc.
4. Basic necessities become difficult to obtain (i.e. gas, food, medicine) either due to short supply, or out of control price gauging

Now, many of us may chuckle at such what-ifs, since nothing like that could ever happen "here". But recent history has taught us that previously stable and even prosperous locales can turn to shit rather quickly. Iraq was stable before we arrived. New Orleans was a city, rather than a lake prior to Katrina. Indonesia was a vacation paradise before the tsunami. Have you looked at pics of Bosnia before the war? It was a regular, semi-prosperous eastern bloc country. Same with Argentina before the financial collapse. etc. etc.

I've read some very interesting blogs / personal accounts on such situations from people who have lived through them:

Post Katrina New Orleans (short term SHTF):
http://www.frfrogspad.com/disastr.htm

Post Economic Collapse Argentina (long term SHTF) - this one requires a login - but it's great. Basically: dude still has a job, a family, a house, but the money is worthless - what do you do? How do you continue to survive?
http://www.frugalsquirrels.com/cgi-bin/ubb/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic;f=1;t=044387;p=1

Post Invasion Iraq (really long term SHTF):
I had a good link for this but lost it... I'll update if I can find it.

 

Just some thoughts.

Race war...

Civil unrest is here!

I've always been a fan of the post apocalypse type fiction, but when it comes to reality, i think there's a much higher chance of a societal downturn that preserves some of the things we depend on, but takes away others... To me, the realistic SHTF situations begin with large scale economic collapse, energy infrastructure collapse, a pandemic, large scale natural diseasters, or, most often, war.

 

Most importantly, these events don't end humanity as we know it, they just make life into living hell for a select population of people. Again, this is not about holing up in the basement with your honey, your shotgun, and a month's supply of canned beans, and protecting yourself from zombies.

 

I'm specifically talking about your normal living situation slowly worsening, while you still have to find some way to live, work, eat, entertain yourself, etc. 

 

So let's say that an economic collapse has occurred. Basically, your comfortable, middle-class life in a 1st world country has been upturned.

 

1. You still have your home, family, etc.

2. You may still have a job, but your money is worth a lot less now due to runaway inflation. Your job is not that secure, however, and unemployment is rampant.

3. Public services have ceased or significantly reduced due to lack of funds. This means that formerly safe areas are dangerous, as desperate people turn to crime to support themselves, and there are no police to stop them (or police are part of the problem like in Mexico). Maybe there's very little sanitation, electricity is unreliable, hospitals are overcrowded, etc.

4. Basic necessities become difficult to obtain (i.e. gas, food, medicine) either due to short supply, or out of control price gauging

 

Now, many of us may chuckle at such what-ifs, since nothing like that could ever happen "here". But recent history has taught us that previously stable and even prosperous locales can turn to shit rather quickly. Iraq was stable before we arrived. New Orleans was a city, rather than a lake prior to Katrina. Indonesia was a vacation paradise before the tsunami. Have you looked at pics of Bosnia before the war? It was a regular, semi-prosperous eastern bloc country. Same with Argentina before the financial collapse. etc. etc.

 

I've read some very interesting blogs / personal accounts on such situations from people who have lived through them:

 

Post Katrina New Orleans (short term SHTF):

http://www.frfrogspad.com/disastr.htm

 

Post Economic Collapse Argentina (long term SHTF) - this one requires a login - but it's great. Basically: dude still has a job, a family, a house, but the money is worthless - what do you do? How do you continue to survive?

http://www.frugalsquirrels.com/cgi-bin/ubb/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic;f=1;t=044387;p=1

 

Post Invasion Iraq (really long term SHTF):

I had a good link for this but lost it... I'll update if I can find it.

 

Just some thoughts.

remember hurricane irene? i drove down there the night before she was supposed to hit, to remove cap assets from cape may county airport. the lines at the gas stations looked like 1979 all over again. and gas was at

LEAST a buck a gallon more there than up here. traffic heading out was a never ending line of hardly moving traffic.