raz-0

Yes if there are lots of non severe cases, the R0 goes up but the mortality rate goes down. My previous numbers are for a simple population sample. No deaths, no getting better, no natural immunity, no measures taken. But the reason why there is great concern is that we can’t mitigate it with a vaccine yet, and the growth rate without intervention is bad.

They took measures fir social distancing and containment on board. That’s not the numbers you get just letting it run its course. You will note that the ratios compared to the flu WHILE taking containment measures are worse.

I really wish they taught math better. Here’s why: The R0 of the flu is ~1.3. With that we got 36 million cases. It has a mortality rate of about 0.095% that we wind up with 22,000 dead. This is not a bad year for the flu. COVID-19 has an R0 between 2.2-3.2 based on estimates to date. We will go with a popular consensus number out there 2.3. Mortality rate has varied between 1.48% (places in China where social distancing, etc were put in place early, after Wuhan showed it was bad) and 5% (Italy). Wuhan, which was an example of belated intervention is rocking a rate of a bit above 4%. Let’s go ten rounds of infection. I just did this math manually but I’ll probably write a script to do better numbers. flu = 42.73 infected covid-19= 7328.50 infected So.... a whole season without intervention you aren’t talking 36 million cases. It’s way bigger. And then it isn’t 22,000 dead. It is a rate 12-40x greater of that much bigger number. it is epically bad. But that 1.48% I mentioned earlier was the result of preventive measures reducing that R0 number and by association allowing for better medical care.

They extend the closure. That’s why the notifications usually say “at least until”.

It’s a solid read. Some fairly technical stuff explained clearly.

The more flavors of flu you build immunity to, the better your odds. If you don't get the vaccine, your body's immune system isn't sampling any more varieties than you naturally encounter. Unless the vaccine comes with significant risk, it's all upside. IMO the worst risk is entering medical facilities because that's where all the sick people and super bugs are. Fortunately the flu vaccine is available without having to visit such places.

Your chart says exactly what I said. 45% is decent, 60 ius about the peak, 29 was last years which wasn't so hot. Which is why they keep seeking >95% vaccination rate for the flu. With effectiveness rates like that, you really need a high rate of uptake to get near the herd immunity levels. The healthcare system takes this seriously. And folks like you say "wargharble... no vaccines!". Your need to post that everyone other than you is wrong somehow, even when you post shit which was exactly what they just said, is baffling.

To AVB's screed. You make gross assumptions about what is going on here. The administration is never going to (and never should), scream panic. THeir job is to say this isn't as bad as the fear mongers are making out. You say that and then do something. The US passed on WHO tests. Perhaps that was charitable saying we can take care of ourselves help out people in worse shape than us. We are getting more tests online, and nobody is going to give a fuck if they are sanctioned or not (hint they will be), they are going to show up. It might reflect the need for a reality check on our own domestic production ability on certain critical items. Just because we can get it for you in short order when things are going well doesn't mean we have functioning domestic production. As for drive through testing, it's already here. Just not on a large universal scale. IT too will be if the infected numbers rise. Quite probably if it doesn't. But that will come when there isn't scarcity of testing supplies for admitted patients. If you think it isn't being taken seriously by the administration, you are an idiot blinded by your own politics. has it been perfect? No. Would it have been perfect with someone else in the oval office? No.

It's better than the previous year's 29%. A really good year is about 60% IIRC. Which is why a vaccination rate greater than 50% is desired. It's effectiveness is not only about how close a match the vaccine is to the viruses that year, but also the demographics of those vaccinated and infected. Maybe your younger folks who get a close cousin in the vaccine have a better rate of fighting off this years big flu bug. It depends on what you are talking about. The economics of it is going to suck. Supply chain disruptions and reduced customer activity are going to hurt a lot of companies. tax revenues will fall off. Etc. Medically, we have hospital staff being issued one per day and a bag to stow it in... don't lose it. Peak flu season usually stresses a lot of hospitals. Since covid-19 is looking like it will have a bigger and faster peak, it will definitely overwhelm surge capacity in many places. Beds aside, we are not going to be able to keep up with PPE needs given the current supply chain issues. AS for threat to the population, the dangers are more the knock on effects of infrastructure failing to do it's job. Wuhan city is 11 millon people with about 9 million in the urban center. The urban center is a about 25% larger than the 5 boroughs of NYC with about 6% more people jammed in there. So not quite as population dense. Out of 9 million people, 80,000 or so got sick enough to get on the books. About 3% of that 80k died. We have similar median ages, the US has more fatties (about twice the rate), and China has a more smokers (about twice the rate of the north east, 25% vs 15% overall). We are about even with the rate of diabetes. Then you have to factor in other things, like how good is home care here vs there? If we have better access to OC medications and such and our medical system disincentivizes seeking medical care for less severe cases, we may get less spread. We also get the benefit of not being able to be wildly optimistic since we aren't anywhere near going first. But China got to where they are with less supply chain issues then everyone else will have by both going first, and being the country of manufacture for most of those supplies. At a macro level we'll be fine. If we fare twice as bad as China, 98%+ of us will still be walking around when it is all over. But to quote the nurses with limited PPE supplies and fun stuff like TB patients.... FUUUUUUUUUCK. Will you see patients like that get less intervention? Possibly, without PPE, bodies going to the incinerator is a lot more effective at stopping the spread of covid and TB than exposing your healthcare staff extensively to TB. Nobody will bother keeping track og those kinds of deaths in any public manner.

Lots of people buy week to week. They may not have a sense of scale. Also just for perspective, I’ve only got a family of three to worry about. Let’s say I goes like the last bout of school plague ripping through the place. Kid got it. Wife got it about 5 days later. I got it about 5 days after that. That’s 24 days of social isolation for the household for covid-19. I buy by the cube at Costco. It’s usually good for about 2 months and change. But if I wanted to avoid stores for the next 60-90 days I’d need two cubes. Now a guy I work with has seven kids. I don’t know how they usually stock up for normal operations, but if they use it ata similar rate, they are going through 1.5 cubes per month. If they have a chain of infection just 3 days between each they are at a month and a half isolation.

The tp thing makes some sense. If you have to self isolate for a few weeks you need your essentials in order to do so. the paper towels are probably due to people like my wife going nuts with the disinfecting off things... which they use lots of paper towels for.

It was always legal. What it was, was against the terms of the card service agreement. So if the card companies are down with it now, it’s the new normal.

Kids get infected. It’s likely to present equivalent to a cold or flu. But they are just as contagious as anyone else.

Rutgers isn’t starting early but is going remote learning after. So is Princeton.

Right now their prices aren't that hot. No never dealt with them.

Sure you can. You just punch out of reality, ignore what was posted, and make shit up. Hence why he says I never back my stuff up with citations. Completely ignoring the many times I have, and even when I counter what he just posted with what is actually in his own damn links. He will double down on a mistake to the end of days. Lots of things appear to work. The problem is most people don't apply disinfectants properly. Most of them you have to go on wet and leave it there for at least 3 minutes. Which is not what most people do.

Sniper knows everything. At least in his own mind. Saying I don't know or I was mistaken is deeply threatening to his psyche. In case you haven't noticed.

And you hit the nail on the head there. So many lefties don't like to to view themselves as radical. They like to view themselves as normal. It's not very hard to find a "progressive" who thinks Sanders is centrist.

So completely missing the chamber and hitting the end of the barrel sideways? If so, I'd see how they are presenting in a loaded mag. That kind of behavior is typical of feed lip problems where the rim is held onto, but the rest flops around.

Honestly, I'd try real ammo and see if the problem goes away. My best accuracy for the money round is whatever the current version of federal 711B that's available. But I have fed it a bunch of panic era 36gr federal bulk boxes and other than the too many dud rounds in a pack, it eats them just fine. Like I said, remington bulk stuff is on my shit list for a reason. If I really feel a need to purchase it, I can just set my money on fire and save myself the drive.

I will preface this with the statement that the bucket o bullets is barely a notch above.... well nothing. It literally defines the bottom of the barrel for .22lr ammo quality (seriously, replace the FTF with a dud or squib, and I have had that level of quality with thunderbolt). Whatever the savings, I don't find them sufficient to justify wasting my time with remington's shit QC on their rimfire ammo. OK, now on to issues the platform can have. 1) if you are using mags with plastic feed lips, stop. They just don't hold up and when they get worn, they can wind up popping loose a whole round under recoil, and there's really nothing you can do to make that not cause an FTF. 2) If you are not doing that, measure a round, manually cycle it and measure it again. Especially if you have swapped out barrel to an aftermarket one and have a bentz chamber, if the ammo is crap and slightly out of spec, you may be deforming or setting back a round. It'll work the second time through usually if this is going on. 1) With the mags, I'd stick with the OEM rotaries. They perform the best. However, they aren't perfect, and one place is that they don't necessarily have uniform spring tension from the factory. So disassemble, clean, and bump up the tension on reassembly. Tutorial on the process is here: https://www.heypete.com/pete/shooting/rugermag.html But when I still shot mine for knowckdown steel, before cleaning, deflashing (IIRC I had one out of seven mags that needed deflashing, do not go looking to remove stuff that doesn't need removal), and retensioning, it was fairly common to outrun the mags if shooting fast. 2) If it is not a bullet presentation issue and it still occurs after a fluff and buff on the mags, try to determine if you are overrunning or underrunning the mags. If you are really going too fast, even with metal lips, you can wind up with popping the cartridge loose as a whole under recoil. IF it is too slow, it may lack the oomph to jam the thing in the chamber. Cheap 22lr bulk isn't the tightest QCed stuff on the planet. and some of them, like some CCI offerings have a bit of a thick waxy coating that may slow things down and interfere slightly. 2a) needs more speed/oomph: If using a thick lube that has some sheer resistance, move to something lighter. If using dry lube, avoid ones that leave a waxy film, and if you have been using them detail strip, scrub and degrease well before switching to something light that doesn't leave waxy buildup or varnish. You can also lightly polish the bolt and guide rod. Replace the guide rod spring with new if it has lots of rounds on it. Alternatively, if it is new, KIDD sells extra power and reduced springs. If you have a poly buffer, you can try replacing it with the stock bolt stop pin. Also, it is always worth checking if teh screws up top for mounting a rail/rings/plugging the holes are the wrong size or screwed in too far and impinging on the bolt and dragging. 2b) needs less oomph and speed. Using a tacky grease can slow the whole thing down. You can put in a poly buffer to replace the bolt stop pin. You can go with a reduced rate recoil spring. As mentioned, KIDD makes them.

The perpetrator was a black, and a democrat, in a gun free zone. He was pissed off about how he was fired from a job in a union shop. This goes deeply against a number of democrat narratives, so their media arm won't be talking about it a lot.

I'm with you on cash. Unless it's the end of the world, the currency still counts, and cash works when the computers are down. It's also useful simply for off hours problems where cash still works when the banks are closed. During Sandy, around me at least, there was at least three days where stores and places were starting to open, but the payment systems weren't on line. Didn't regret having cash on hand one bit.

The costs and benefits beyond dollars and cents are situational. Yes, I can load shotgun using my pistol powder. But I have a 36lb limit on powder in NJ and for every round of shotgun I load, that’s 3-5 rounds of pistol I can’t out of that supply. someone who shoots less and reloads less may not have these concerns.

You don't have a single round until you have all of the components. So I'm not seeing the point of your argument about powder and primers. Shot is pretty compact too, but I have to store the hulls and wads someplace if I want to be able to actually reload a single round. Cost isn't the only reason to reload, but I've taken the opportunity to try out the loads of the couple of people I know who load 12ga that is usable in pumps or semis (QC aside, they are loading factory bulk equivalent loads), and while they claim they are nicer all day long, they are indistinguishable to me. So I don't get savings, and I don't get performance. I can store X amount of powder, and it takes a bigger bite out of that limit than pistol or rifle. Then there's time. Which I could spend loading rifle or pistol, which gets me savings and performance.