How is the S going to HTF?

[mipafox 438]

 

If you are saying that people will just hand over their guns, I agree. It's coming. Soon too.

 

 

No, I'm saying You People. Not that there's anything wrong with that.

[raz-0 1,259]

I think the concern is in the Canares actually........moreso than the UK....

 

http://rense.com/general13/tidal.htm

 

Yeah, that's it. I just remembered as north of prtugal instead of south and was like screw it.. over towards the UK someplace. 

 

 

the collapse of the food chain due to no honeybees.its already here.look around your yard and in the parks.no honeybees.the only things left are bumblebees.einstein had said that 4 years after the disappearance of honeybees and bumblebees mankind will starve.its halfway here already.thanks Monsanto for the roundup ,that stuff should be banned worldwide...

 

Yes, but bumblebees aren't affected, and they are more effective pollinators. Plus in areas where there has been increased reliance on background pollinators, you've actually gotten significnat growth in background pollinator populations, and increased health in the crops. As a a TEOTWAWKI scenario, it mostly applies to people who make money from honey bee goods and services. Implicated to date are electromagnetic radiation, neonicitinoid pesticides, a group of fungal infections, and over harvesting of honey using corn syrup as a replacement food. There is increasing certainty that it is not a single problem. 

 

 

that has little to do with insecticides and and genetically engineered plants. It has to do with cellphone usage/towers and how bees can't use the earths magnetic field to find home.

 

See above. That has not been proven, but also has not been ruled out as a contributing factor. It also isn't game over for anything but the honey industry if the honey bees go TU. 

 

That may be at the management level where LE interfaces with the politicians, but I'm not so sure that LE at the patrolman level will carry out such confiscations, except maybe in urban areas (like New Orleans). I know in my little town all the cops are pro-gun ownership.

 

However, if anything like this does come to pass, I'm on board with the 'from my cold dead hands' point of view...

 

I think you may be a bit over trusting in the rank and file, but the folks using katrina as an example are also missing some important points. 

 

1) Confiscations didn't really start until after outside LE assistance started coming in. There wasn't really much of anything for those LE to do once you had enough people to wrangle evacuees, unless they knew how to make the water go away. In a very real way, the confiscations were make work for these people. 

 

2) In the wealthier neighborhoods, folks like blackwater had started showing up. 

 

3) You had some shots fired at rescue workers in known bad areas presumably by gang members that claimed to control that area. 

 

All of these are symptoms of a common set of issues. A government that totally failed at its job, combined with ongoing public scrutiny, an ongoing set of physical conditions they could do nothing about, and excess manpower. 

 

IN the face of that, that excess manpower chose to make half-assed attempts at confiscation (they didn't get close to large scale success) where it would be the easiest and least threatening to their own well being. 

 

Then look at hurricane sandy. Getting police to deal with anything other than keeping infrastructure issues form getting out of hand was pretty damn difficult. We didn't get lots of outside LE assistance, and there was not a surplus of manpower someone would be embarrassed by not utilizing.  On top of that had they actually shown up, there were jobs they could have actually done other than stare a giant lake that was formerly a series of exceptionally poor real estate decisions. 

 

For a large number of non-localized events, getting in to that setup is going to be a non-starter. Without water, sewage, food, and heat, your claims of keeping law and order won't be taken very seriously. I took all of about 4-5 days for that to start being the case with Sandy, and they were at least decent about keeping a minimal supply of potable water available. 

 

Now you want a new TOETWAWKI, you can deal with modern agriculture and our depletion of phosphates. They didn't disappear form your dish detergent just to save the fishies. It's also to control costs for high yield farming. It's one of a number of competing issues that look to potentially drive yields back to something like 1950s level yields. Even if the US circles the wagons and keeps domestic production at home, prices would rise a LOT, and it would have huge knock on effects to the economy and global politics. There is not currently even a reasonably convenient substitute on deck as far as I have seen. Closest thing to that is that rapidly rising costs will incentivize hydroponic and aquaponic type setups that don't just dump the resources in the ocean after a single use. There is a giant cost delta to that though. 

[Pythagoras 2]

Yeah, that's it. I just remembered as north of prtugal instead of south and was like screw it.. over towards the UK someplace.

 

 

 

Yes, but bumblebees aren't affected, and they are more effective pollinators. Plus in areas where there has been increased reliance on background pollinators, you've actually gotten significnat growth in background pollinator populations, and increased health in the crops. As a a TEOTWAWKI scenario, it mostly applies to people who make money from honey bee goods and services. Implicated to date are electromagnetic radiation, neonicitinoid pesticides, a group of fungal infections, and over harvesting of honey using corn syrup as a replacement food. There is increasing certainty that it is not a single problem.

 

 

 

See above. That has not been proven, but also has not been ruled out as a contributing factor. It also isn't game over for anything but the honey industry if the honey bees go TU.

 

 

I think you may be a bit over trusting in the rank and file, but the folks using katrina as an example are also missing some important points.

 

1) Confiscations didn't really start until after outside LE assistance started coming in. There wasn't really much of anything for those LE to do once you had enough people to wrangle evacuees, unless they knew how to make the water go away. In a very real way, the confiscations were make work for these people.

 

2) In the wealthier neighborhoods, folks like blackwater had started showing up.

 

3) You had some shots fired at rescue workers in known bad areas presumably by gang members that claimed to control that area.

 

All of these are symptoms of a common set of issues. A government that totally failed at its job, combined with ongoing public scrutiny, an ongoing set of physical conditions they could do nothing about, and excess manpower.

 

IN the face of that, that excess manpower chose to make half-assed attempts at confiscation (they didn't get close to large scale success) where it would be the easiest and least threatening to their own well being.

 

Then look at hurricane sandy. Getting police to deal with anything other than keeping infrastructure issues form getting out of hand was pretty damn difficult. We didn't get lots of outside LE assistance, and there was not a surplus of manpower someone would be embarrassed by not utilizing. On top of that had they actually shown up, there were jobs they could have actually done other than stare a giant lake that was formerly a series of exceptionally poor real estate decisions.

 

For a large number of non-localized events, getting in to that setup is going to be a non-starter. Without water, sewage, food, and heat, your claims of keeping law and order won't be taken very seriously. I took all of about 4-5 days for that to start being the case with Sandy, and they were at least decent about keeping a minimal supply of potable water available.

 

Now you want a new TOETWAWKI, you can deal with modern agriculture and our depletion of phosphates. They didn't disappear form your dish detergent just to save the fishies. It's also to control costs for high yield farming. It's one of a number of competing issues that look to potentially drive yields back to something like 1950s level yields. Even if the US circles the wagons and keeps domestic production at home, prices would rise a LOT, and it would have huge knock on effects to the economy and global politics. There is not currently even a reasonably convenient substitute on deck as far as I have seen. Closest thing to that is that rapidly rising costs will incentivize hydroponic and aquaponic type setups that don't just dump the resources in the ocean after a single use. There is a giant cost delta to that though.

Wow, you know a lot about this!

[Old Dog 19]

One good thing about being old is that you have heard the SHTF stories for so long that you can ignore them and move on with your life. However, as one sharp tack reminded me, just because it never happened does not mean it cannot happen. Duh, OK, but there are many things that can possibly happen that are unlikely to happen and it is only those things that are likely to happen that we should worry about or else we will end up like Howard Hughes secluded from all the possible dangers of the world.

 

Does anyone else notice that when it comes to possible but unlikely events that include having a gun, they are paid more attention than those more likely things that do not require a gun? 

[Vlad G 345]

Things that are unlikely happen all the damn time. If they didn't you would never hear of industrial accidents for example. Every process, industry, structure, organization, etc assumes an acceptable level of risk in its structure, say for example "This nuclear reactor can withstand a 7 earthquake, or a tsunami, but not both, but that would be very unlikely case so it should be fine". People make those sort of decisions every day. 

 

Call it cost cutting, call it normalcy bias, call it risk averaging, but it is part of everything everyone does, at the personal level and at the national level. That doesn't mean that unlikely things don't happen.  Grids fail for all sorts of reasons. Anyone remember the 2003 North East grid failure? Or the South West and Cali a few years ago when it failed because some replaced a part half a country away?  Do you think when they repaired all bits that needed repair after Sandy the did a) right or b) half assed?

 

If I had to make a guess I'd say economic panic, followed by bank and companies failing, followed by chunks of the infrastructure being abandoned,  and sections of the country being left on their own. The big cities will get something, and their suburbs will pay for it by being tied to the urban centers, but not getting the same attention. The rural folks will have to make it happen on their own. There will be all sorts of pockets of all sorts of badness and variations on a theme. We'll probably see every extreme from complete lack of the rule of law to the extreme use of the rule of law, depending on where you area and how important your are and its production is to the leadership. 

 

I don't think we'll see "The Road", I think will see something between "Brazil" and "1984" with a healthy dose of "The grapes of wrath".