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Everything posted by raz-0

  1. I've got a new reloading room setup on the horizon. I think I'll have to steal that t-track idea for the new bench. I already have a swapable setup, but the machine spacing is fixed.
  2. I don't think you can have a valid plan. for what is coming. I don't think you can get hyperinflation unless it is a brief period before TEOTWAWKI. TO get something like post WWI inflation in Germany or zimbabwe style inflation, you need to have a great disparity in competing economies, and there aren't countries escaping these issues. You might see it if say the US was seriously considering sheltering in place for 18 months while china said fuck it, if they die they die. But as I pointed out. We don't have one side considering staying shut forever and the other opening up tomorrow. We have both sides trying to figure out just how early they can open and the NE dems screaming orange man bad because if they were honest and we opened up what we could... it wouldn't be most of the NE. It definitely wouldn't be NY and NJ. And the last thing they want is Trump being vindictive on top of good sense and making their bad situation worse. Even if they kept it honest, showing red state flyover country get back to normal while populous urban shitholes fester is at it's core a very anti-democrat message because said urban shit holes are very blue. Hence the poo flinging. It's covering up that the NE dems are really discussing opening up too early by all models for the shitstorm going on here. What is likely on the horizon fiscally is following up the LAST lost decade to to a massive recession with ANOTHER lost decade. Which I don't think we have seen anywhere, and thus don't have an idea of what the challenges of such are. Probably with a sharp, although possibly brief uptick in homelessness and food insecurity. This is an example of where I tend to not be in line with a strict conservative political line. Fund SNAP, avoid fraud and abuse, but fund it. I don't mind paying taxes for services that provide me with a useful shared resource. Keeping pissed off hungry people off of my lawn is a useful service. However, you can print money for SNAP all you like. if it just increases the pool of money chasing scarce food supply, all you get is inflation, not more fed people. The same number of hungry people an siphoning cash out of other parts of the economy is not really a good thing.
  3. And shortly after writing my giant screed about demonizing one group vs another for the exact same thing. Here's a politico article https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2020/04/21/southern-governors-create-a-covid-19-coalition-and-experts-fear-a-perfect-storm-1278753?fbclid=IwAR0qufIsGJCZiQNzTX1pE5TI9exU1gOjZmvFjlFlsPqpEayfbXYUkM-TwC8&utm_source=fark&utm_medium=website&utm_content=link&ICID=ref_fark Summary is basically coalition of southern states banding together to develop a plan to reopen are a bunch of hicks who will kill us all, and that the norther coalition of governors banding together to develop a plan to reopen are noble saviors. Because they are democrats and thus not stupid hicks. Sorry fat, stupid, diabetic hicks. Because the difference between NJ's 27.7% obesity rate and Georgia's 31% obesity rate is so vast it will prevent the apocalypse. I mean they have numbers.. Numbers from SCIENTISTS. Except their numbers are from a group started by the very unbiased.... The Atlantic. Oh shit they aren't unbiased. Not even a little, sorry. And the article claims that georgia, according to the numbers form the atlantic have only tested one hundredth of one percent of their population. The article was written yesterday.. by smart people.. who can't fucking do math all the time, because while Mississippi does have a testing rate of 1.7%, Geogra is at 0.8%. The very not apocalyptic new jersey is at a whopping 2%. NY leads the pack at 3%. But trust the smart journalists. Because their testing rate for the northeast coalition is also wrong. I just think they don't know how to calculate percentages. Or maybe they don't know how to look up population. But They definitely said making a plan to reopen geogria is bad. Georgia with about 1% of the population tested. Making a plan to reopen NJ is definitely good. That is despite the fact that - GA has about a 28% positive test rate compared to NJ's nearly 50% positive rate on tests. -That unless GA is rolling back testing their daily rates of new positives are dropping a lot. (peaked on 04-14, and has fallen off significantly. NJ also peaked 04-14 and has.. well fell off a teeny bit and is holding a plateaue. -The vast majority of infections are in 6 counties out of 159 covering more land mass. The most population dense counties. Using similar metrics (i.e. most infected county plus all counties own to 1/3 of the peak infected county) for NJ, you have 9 counties out of 21 and betwen 1/3 and 1/2 of new jersey land mass. Does it mean that it is safe to reopen georgia? No. A number of counties without a large number of infections have a a high per-capita infection rate. If you are turning symptomatic people away from testing in those counties due to lack of medical infrastructure, then you may be masking a hazard. This however IS an answerable question. New Jersey on the other hand has more data. If it is possibly not safe to reopen GA, it is DEFINITELY not safe to reopen NJ. It may be possible to alter policy safely in both places. But even if you doubled all of GAs numbers and weighted it towards "oh shit people be dying" they'd still be better and more spread out than NJ. ANd have one major airport in the whole state instead of 3 of the busiest in the country, the NE corridor, every major east coast interstate, significantly more utilized mass transit, being sandwiched between NYC and Philly, etc. But no.. NE = brilliant non-trumpian strategists. SE=stupid hicks.
  4. God, I'm going to feel skeezy semi-defending greenday's point. So let me preface it that no.. dumping expensive bio fuel on the market won't be some genius move. Nor is investing in alternative energy right now going to be a profitable move. That being said, if you are an oil company, this is a pretty solid warning that it might be time to diversify and spend some of the war chest on something less prone to volatility than oil. More specifically, moving into energy production that might not have as much upside but has more consistent demand and can't just turn off over night. The energy powering transportation can do that. Things like household heating and electric are less likely to do that as bad. Like maybe you do some really weird shit and build the oil equivalent of water batteries. Have more storage, and when shit like this goes sideways you sell buffering capacity to the grid. I mean you have to pump it into the frikin tanks anyway. But I don't work in the sector. Maybe they already do that.
  5. Here's the thing. You know when this thing will end? The second that the politicians run out of money. Right now, they think they can pay for their rules, and they have done so while amassing more power than before and tossing out the bits of the state constitution they don't like. They really don't care if you live or die other than that it will be bad press for them and potentially negatively impact revenues and campaign contributions. And all of the above is clouded by the fact that this disease is problematic. It's more than likely less dangerous than the flu, but significantly more contagious and that combined with a hospitalization rate high enough that when combined with those other two factors means we are running hospitals in population dense areas at 100% or more capacity. What we are seeing now is that the numbers are rolling in and there is a genuine point to debate. Life saving policy caused economic upheaval. Politicians could mitigate this by running the printing presses. It gets them good publicity and they look likethe domin they did something good. However, you now see that the policy is impacting supply chains. Most importantly food supply chains. Starvation has a lot higher mortality rate than this disease, and starving people like hanging politicians more than voting for them. Right now, staying home seems like a viable option. But you have to imagine the world 3 months... 6 months.. a year from now. Right now in a very real way we are setting up the situation where we have more money than food to buy it with. This leads to inflation of food prices, which we are already seeing. Part of that money chasing food is government bailout. That is going to run out and then you have inflated prices on scarce food with 10-20% unemployment? Right now, we have policy based on the notion that this disease would be worse than it is and that most people who were out of work would go back to working when shelter in place was done. A lot of them won't be. That reality is sinking in and policy is going to have to adjust. Greenday can sniff his own farts and feel smug all he wants. But the reality is you have Trump saying we need to open up or we will have a pandemic and a depression and possibly food riots because this is not a functional model for long term behavior of human society. Then you have.. lets say all the democratic governors in the northeast who say that the orange monster is a tyrant that will kill us all and is advocating an apocalypse. While also planning THE EXACT SAME PROCESS being advocated by Trump. There's only minor differences, and the motivating reasons are exactly the same. But the publicity game is all about people pretending that if it weren't for the other guy, we could have gotten through this without harm. And everyone wants to pretend this shit has something to do with an inherently superior set of ideals. It's not. Dairy farmers are dumping milk because their customer base and volume shifted radically and milk spoils faster than you can shift that process. Once you get past schools and restaurants closing and trying to pretend that one side wouldn't have done that (because both sides did), ideology doesn't come into it. Then look at the yeast situation. Demand shot through the roof. Manufacturing can actually make a shit ton more yeast. But they can't get enough of the right packaging, and without the right packaging the yeast doesn't live long enough to traverse the supply chain. You can pretend the problem is because the packaging comes from India. The real problem is that there is no secondary source of packaging that isn't also affected by the pandemic and has the capacity to meet that demand. Unless you change policy to allow more people to work on that problem, be it here, India, wherever, you won't meet the increased demand. And create scarcity and inflation. It isn't the trump bucks hitting people's bank accounts that is going to cause inflation. That's mostly filling a hole created by lack of employment. The uncontrollable path to inflation is going to be all the imbalances in supply and demand. Where an american was spending say 10% of their income on food, and now will be spending 30% in part due to less income and in part due to competition for scarce supply. And what about all the issues with rent and mortgages. Rent especially. You aint paying, they can't evict you, and you have lots of people being dumped on the street the first day it is legally possible.And they all start competing for what housing will have them. And what happens when you get competition for a scarce resource? And it won't just be shuffling of tenants. A lot of those vacancies won't be back on the market. Definitely not for people who didn't pay then, but a lot will be taken off the market if fiscally viable, go into foreclosure because the economic damage was to significant to the landlord, aren't where the demand is because the main employers in the area didn't survive this economic mess, etc. If something isn't done to mitigate it, which is why despite the theatrics and finger pointing, you have diametrically opposed leaders going through the EXACT SAME PROCESS to figure out when they have to cry uncle and reopen. This is because once Greenday gets done with his fart sniffing, and AVB realizes he's a lot more financially well off than most of the US and thus isn't facing the same problems, that the choice ISN'T how many corpses is it worth to save people from boredom, but how many dead sick people is it worth having to prevent stacking corpses from political unrest, or what the exchange rate is between covid-19 deaths and half the country slowly starving to death. It's going to be a choice between two flavors of shit sandwich. Not do no harm and fuck it all up. And to be fair, there are people here who will be saying we should never have taken measures in the first place and be borderline psychotic about it. They aren't right either as they are pointing at numbers that are the result of HAVING DONE SOMETHING when they say it isn't bad enough to justify this. The thing is the majority of people making those claims are viewed as idiots. There's lots of people pushing the Trump fucked it all up and all democrats are saints narrative being treated as if they are the most reasonable people in the room rather than liars who are also full of shit. This ride aint going to be fun, and neither party has a plan that will skip it. Everyone is trying to figure out how to make it shortest and everyone is working with estimates on how bad each bad thing is with spreads that are vast. It'd be nice if the monkeys would stop flinging poo while doing it, but pretending it isn't what it is on both sides of the aisle is bullshit.
  6. My $0.02 and worth about that on a good day. The statute seems to indicate the illegal act is obtaining parts used to create an untraceable firearm (and oddly, I think if it ever comes to it, the fact that isn't defined anywhere will come into play as to what that means). If you have a fully built and functional non-serialized firearm, you have clearly obtained the part to create it. More importantly, that firearm could be taken apart and used to assemble a whole other firearm. It'll get hard into the semantics of constructive intent and what is is.
  7. Beer can burgers can be good. I usually do a Thanksgiving in July beer can burger. Bacon, ground turkey for the burger, stuffed with stuffing and mushrooms done in the grill. Then gravy over top when serving.
  8. German measles is rubella. Measles is rubeola.
  9. The flu vaccine less effective because it's a guess at what it vaccinated against. This would target this specific Corona virus so efficacy against this virus would be much higher. Kind of like the measles vaccine. Even if it were only 38% effective, it'd cut down on mortality and hospitalization rate by more than one third. Which would make it a much less disruptive disease.
  10. frikin swipey keyboard and it's laggy word replacement. It was supposed to be driving around four to a car.
  11. Well, I WAS wearing masks last week. I wasn't wearing a mask a month ago, but a month ago, we weren't at or near peak infection, but were reducing people going out and people were keeping their distance and WE WEREN'T NEAR PEAK INFECTION. Which means we had to contact a lot more people to statistically run into an infected person. The math on that is a LOT more unfriendly now. As the rate of infections drop, then the odds of encountering infected people drops, and we go back to not having to take as many precautions. I do not know what's wrong with you. If you wanted to rail about freedoms and the man, it'd make a lot more sense about using police powers to curtail freedom of assembly than people being prepared to say you are trespassing for not wearing a mask. Or even the stupid rule about no more than two people in cars. Yeah, the local teenagers are driving around in parked cars. But they aren't my teenagers and if you raised stupid ones.. well it might kill you now. But they aren't putting the general population at risk. But for a family of four who are locked in together anyway. Making me interact with a higher risk individual because the rules were written by morons seems counterproductive. But no.. you want to die on the hill of fuck you I'm not wearing no mask. Despite the benefit to you if you are disease free of reducing your chance of infection form those who are not.
  12. And since it can be asymptomatic AND transmitted, I'm sure you are regularly testing daily to make sure what you say is true, right? Also do whatever you like that just endangers yourself. Also stop putting words in other people's mouths. You said you don't understand how it protects us. I explained. The fact you are foaming at the mouth and dumb as a bag of rocks is beside the point.
  13. Jeez. You wearing a mask makes you safer. If you don't get sick, you can't get anyone else sick. This makes me safer. It is both self interest and mutual benefit.
  14. Point the gun at the camera and by extension the viewer. You do know that pictures and video can shoot you, right?
  15. Low on milk but dairy farmers are dimming it by the truckload.
  16. My election year shopping was done but small pistol primers. I delayed a bit and caught some of the panic on them. Everyone had large pistol primers, small though... nothing. I snagged some small pistol magnum match. By the time hazmat and shipping was done.. $45 per k. :P But literally, that's like 2003 pricing, or whenever that huge ammo order went in for the military under Bush. Went from like 19.95 per box to $30 per box in a couple of weeks.
  17. Could be but I doubt it. For example thehospitals have to buy n95 certified masks. kn95 which is a foreign certification can not be used, even though they are better than the offered alternative to the N95... a surgical mask or wrapping a t-shirt around your face. But kn95 masks can be used as long as they don't pay for them. As donations, the FDA stays out of it. But it's donation of product, not cash. Also if they purchased it, donated it, and comingled it with existing supplies without involving the admin that could be problematic in a lot of ways. OSHA stuff, not sharing with other departments kind of politics, etc.
  18. There are regulatory requirements about equipment purchased. There are different ones with regard to equipment donated. My guess is her being an employee AND doing the purchasing and then donating caused problems for them.
  19. I don't disagree that someone else should try. But He definitely needs to keep trying. You can't sue over being banned if you don't get told you cannot attend.
  20. Busses are likely contacted so unless this goes on for more than a year the citrate is the contract. If not contacted maintenance and any lab payments are still due. How much money do you think the sports programs get from the school? The lunch program money had moved to the continuation if nutrition program. Which is also using the busses. Basically, unless it goes on a while our your school system massively funds extra curricular activities, the savings is utilities and likely there are other extra expenses.
  21. Teachers are teaching online. Quite possibly spending more time than they did before to teach because they have to redo all the work they did planning around having a classroom a well as learning a bunch of new tools. School administrators are still dealing with budget, hire to deal with grades and regulatory compliance, and in most towns are running the continuation of nutritional support programs which are getting food and basic necessities out to families. Which might just be keeping those living from paycheck to paycheck from infecting you or breaking into your home to get said necessities. About the only thing they might be saving on are utilities. But given the time of year and the weather, that probably isn't much.
  22. I loved chicken roll as a kid. Now it's just breaded and fried and called chicken nuggets.
  23. If there was a mistake, it isn't the FFL here making it. So, normally for gunsmithing or repairs, you don't need a permit to get the gun back. Because you ship it to them, and they ship it back to you. BUT that requires that they be an FFL. In free america, a lot of gunsmiths aren't FFLs because you can jsut lend your gun to anyone provided it doesn't cross a state line and involve BATFE interstate transfer rules. So to return to you out of state, if he was not an FFL, he did the only thing he could. And you need a permit to get it back. If he had the FFL, he should have just shipped it to you. But he didn't, and you need a permit to get it back. Welcome to NJ.
  24. Disabling the auto rotate is definitely the way to go. That's because the auto rotate isn't super slick and thus isn't much faster than manually advancing the turret, AND more importantly the little see-saw arm priming mechanism is shit. At least in my version you had to slow down in order to not out run it's return to proper alignment. Even if that weren't so, loading a primer into it by hand is stupid slow and dealing with flipped primers was stupid and slow. Additionally, for rifle you need to trim between size and powder anyway, so you handle the brass no matter what. So for me the best course of action was size a bunch of brass. If rifle brass, trim it. Use a standalone hand primer to prime it. And then manually advancing the turret do a charge, seat, crimp process for each piece of primed brass. If you are doing rifle and want to weigh each charge, you aren't even going to be able to do that. I wasn't weighing each charge though in general unless it was small batch and I just didn't want to set up the powder measure.
  25. No. What I am saying is that don't expect to be able to force the issue on non 2a needs due to lack of demand right now. If they are printing for other things but not permits, then yeah sue away. But if they are closed because they want to be closed right now and it affects a bunch of things including 2a issues, well the government isn't going to give a shit about the repercussions of handing over fingerprinting to private business that can just close. And due to decreased demand, I don't thin the government will feel a whole lot of pressure in the near future form it being closed outside of disgruntled 2a people.
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