Ukraine

[Zeke 5,504]

Anybody getting a little uneasy about what is going on over there?

 

I keep watching, doesn't seem likes things are getting better. More like they are getting worse. Is this the restart of the Cold War? Or worse?

[Shawnmoore81 623]

Yeah it's deff not improving

[mikka1 2]

(upfront for the full disclosure - I am Russian national by birth, moved to the US several years ago)

 

I doubt it will improve anytime soon, I believe will just get worse.

Russian politicians needed some "grand national idea" to gather support from HUGE parts of population and apparently this situation in Ukraine worked not just fine, but great. Some agencies recently reported a huge spike in a level of satisfaction that respondents (based on regular surveys among Russian population) expressed towards the actions of the Government and the president personally. I have not been following this closely, but apparently president's rating is at highest ever seen levels.

Now Russian president has another ~2MM of supporters from Crimea. And apparently nobody really cares that Russian taxpayers will have yet another burden financially supporting a depressed region (and there is actually no doubt it will HAVE to be hugely supported).

There are even jokes spreading around already from some of the other Regions of Russia, like "Dear Mr President, we heard you support people in Crimea, increase their wages, build them new roads and new infrastructure... Please annex our region as well - maybe this way you will support us too. Your fellow Russian citizens from XXX"...

[Oleg 8]

I am following the news from Ukraine obviously. It is sad that government cannot put their act together and fight off those terrorists.

 

I believe the only way to resolve this conflict is a forceful removal of Putin and some of his friends from power by forces from inside of Russia. US/EU sanctions supposedly should motivate such forces to act.

 

I do not understand many things about 2A and issues about it, but in my opinion Ukraine today is an example of what 2A is about. With powerless government, dysfunctional police, people are forming militia to protect their towns from terrorists. The only problem is that they have hardly any weapons because civilian people are mostly prohibited from having it in Ukraine. They have nothing but will against trained professionals, AKs, grenade launchers etc.

[Zeke 5,504]

Thank you my friends for your insight.

[remixer 1,645]

Watching it close.. Not a good situation..

[Hooligan 0]

I would be more comfortable if we hadn't been wasting our soldiers, equipment, and budget in the middle east.  A fresh military and less debt would be nice to have should the SHTF between us and Russia.

[Maksim 1,504]

As a former Ukranian, I am damn glad one way or another, the abuse of Russian speakers in Ukraine will finally come to an end.  

 

Bottom line... nothing to worry about, nor is this any of America's business.  When most folks could not even locate Ukraine on the map.  Just something that is thrown on the news to take your mind off of how screwed the United States is on the domestic front.

 

Boeing just spent 2.6 billion dollars on a deal with Russia and invested in another deal for over 17 billion over the next 7 years.  The economies are so intertwined, any sactions will hurt the US and EU more than Russia.  (after all, Russia actually has account surpluses instead of trillions in Debt. lol).

 

I would say as with anything, the news coverage you get here, of Russia and Ukraine is just as correct as the picture they paint of gun owners.

 

I still have family and friends in parts of Ukraine and they would all beg to differ with the coverage you have here.

 

What has the puppet government done so far in Ukraine?  They have instituted new military taxes, and drafted a bunch of males to the army.  The fascists and nazi's in Ukraine, under the "right sector" who were part of Maidan and the new government have taken control over the government and have beaten senseless any Russian speakers.  They have shot the mayor of a pro Russian town, told jews they needed to register, they have beaten up and sent to the hospital a Russian speaking candidate for president, they have made movements to cancel Holacaust remembrance and WW2 victory day parades in June. 

 

Why is it that when it was a Pro Russian president, protests and overthrows were ok... YET, when the Russian speaking towns want to protest... they send in the military to quell them, and they have no rights of self determination?  The hypocrisy just astounds me.  

 

The idea that Putin is going to invade Poland, the other Baltic States and Alaska makes me laugh.  

 

This is Russia's right to defend their ethnic people.  When the soviet union fell apart, people did not have a choice to move, and were cut off by the lines that were drawn.  In many of these places, Latvia, Lithuania, and yes.. Ukraine, the nationalists movements have taken hold and the minorities were not protected.  When I was visiting Ukraine 3 years ago, I was personally disrespected in Kiev because I was born and raised in a russian/jewish part of the country, and did not speak ukrainian.  Our family members in Kiev, who are also ethnically russia, are afraid and cannot go outside because Russian speakers are assaulted daily.  

 

Ukraine is not just one country where everyone is the same, pretty much half the country identify themselves are ethnic Russians, and do not speak Ukranian.  The Western half of Ukraine typically are ethnic Ukranians, and are now telling Russians and all non ukranians to get out of the country.

 

So tell me... If all of the sudden you were assaulted for being a Republican, or a gun owner, or hell, for being a white Jew....what would you do?  Do you stand and not do anything?

 

I do realize a lot of people are still under the cold war mentality, but did not realize the gun community can be so blindly stupid not to take things as they are being fed to them.

 

Especially with America's amazing track record of...

 

1. Egypt.... supported protesters (muslim brotherhood) who overthrew Military dictator... who was at least good.  Muslim brotherhood in turn goes extreme and responsible for many deaths.

 

2. Syria... supported protesters (Al Queda) who wanted to overthrow Assad, yes, a dictator... who at least was not crazy to launch weapons at neighbor countries.  Granted, initially they were peaceful protesters... THEN Al Queda and other extremist groups took it over... (sound familiar to Ukraine?  If not, go read.... Maidan started as peaceful, then was taken over).

 

3. Iraq?

 

4. Afghanistan.... supported Taliban in its fight to overthrow the Russian allied dictator.  After we trained and supplied Bin Laden... you know the rest.

 

The united states gets its nose in places we know nothing about nor have the right to be in.  But hey... at least it takes the attention off of Obamacare, slow economy, TRILLION dollar debt, 15% unemployment, rising taxes.

 

Is it possible we are on the wrong side of Ukraine... as we have been in the past?

 

 

If anyone actually fears of something big... don't.  Unless Obama or EU are too stupid, and I don't think they are in this case.  

 

This will end either...

 

1. New elections and guarantees of protection and more self autonomy for russian regions in Eastern and Southern Ukraine.

2. Southern and Eastern Ukranian towns will succeed and a new state will be formed, East Ukraine, whatever... or they may join Russia.  This gives the facists their own state (Ukraine), and separate state for other Ukranians who want to live in peace.

 

On the whole, option 2 is better for the people.  Ukranian economy is complete garbage full of corruption.  The people in Crimean are at least now receiving benefits of being a Russian citizen, including retirement benefits and wages that have not been paid.  

 

In either case, the economies of western europe and Russia are dependent on each other, and this is all political showboating and political cover for Russia.  American and Europe can't say they didn't try and I hope... final security for ethnic Russians (about 40 to 50% of Ukraine) will now be secure.

 

I have no qualms about being a Jew in Russia... I was scared when I was in Kiev.   Putin has the balls to quell fascists and extremists.  Ukraine is over run with them. 

 

Being born in the former soviet union, in a place now on the boundaries of Ukraine, I am damn ashamed of saying I was a Ukrainian, especially after what they did in ww2.   I am glad someone, Putin, is not standing by while extremists in Ukraine took over peaceful protests and now are taking out their anger at anyone who is not a slavic ukranian.

 

There is a really good guy on youtube, AnthonyG pointed out to me, who was doing great reported on the real situation 

 

Here to get you started on the newly installed western government.

 

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2014/0219/Are-Ukraine-s-Maidan-protesters-terrorists-and-radicals-video

 

[Maksim 1,504]

Really good unbiased report on the new powers that be...

 

 

part 2.

 

[Maksim 1,504]

Some more of these peaceful right sector protesters.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8gZ4txmf7Jo

[Maksim 1,504]

I am following the news from Ukraine obviously. It is sad that government cannot put their act together and fight off those terrorists.

 

I believe the only way to resolve this conflict is a forceful removal of Putin and some of his friends from power by forces from inside of Russia. US/EU sanctions supposedly should motivate such forces to act.

 

I do not understand many things about 2A and issues about it, but in my opinion Ukraine today is an example of what 2A is about. With powerless government, dysfunctional police, people are forming militia to protect their towns from terrorists. The only problem is that they have hardly any weapons because civilian people are mostly prohibited from having it in Ukraine. They have nothing but will against trained professionals, AKs, grenade launchers etc.

 

Yes, my friends in Ukraine just got notice from Kiev to turn in their guns to their local police department.  Yep... the "Ukranian" peaceful protesters. 

[Maksim 1,504]

 

A russian speaking official getting roughed up in Ukraine's parliament.... OH YEAH... the truth hurts so let's take him down.

[Maksim 1,504]

Video of the mob attacking the Russian speaking candidate.

 

 

the result.

 

[Maksim 1,504]

[Oleg 8]

Maksim,

there was never ever abuse of Russians in Ukraine. It is just impossible.

If anything speaking or showing support for Ukraine gets you severally beaten or killed in some areas in East. 

 

I did not look at videos but what you wrote pretty much repeats fantasies and lies that are told on Russian TV. Turning off Russian channels helps to clear mind. It helped my Ukrainian relatives for sure.

[mikka1 2]

Well, I have very-very mixed feelings after Maksim's post...

 

But I can say upfront what I am VERY uncomfortable about -

(...)

The people in Crimean are at least now receiving benefits of being a Russian citizen, including retirement benefits and wages that have not been paid.  
(...)

^^^^^ THIS

For certain reasons I still pay taxes on my income in Russia AS WELL as in the US. Last year only in income taxes due to Russian Tax authorities I paid an amount far exceeding what some of my relatives have either in retirement benefits or simply as a salary working at state budget-funded positions (mostly in a field of education). And this just pi**es me completely off to know that instead of channeling those funds to support my fellow Russian citizens living literally next to me and working their a**es off to make a living, Russian government decides to freeze remuneration for state-funded jobs (no pay rise for school teachers, medical professionals working in state-funded institutions), freeze retirement benefits for Russian citizens, keep raising utilities / transportation / food prices at the rates much higher than the officially reported inflation ... and, at the same time, start paying out benefits to "Russian-speaking population of Crimea". Come on, those people are foreigners, they made their choice in exactly the same way Russian-speaking people in Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and other countries did after the collapse of USSR. They either stayed where they were (for almost 25 years actually!) or moved.

I just don't get why again I am taking the bill for politically motivated actions of the government and, this time, suffer financially myself as well... And frankly that just only pushes me to look for opportunities of getting rid of that tax obligation to Russia as I feel a little uncomfortable with paying for a party I don't like... I'd seriously prefer to pay more taxes here in the US instead of supporting Russian government...

 

(...)

Putin has the balls to quell fascists and extremists.
(...)

I'd say Putin has giant balls to fight everything he does not like and that directly threats his position at the same time doing nothing to fight the myriad of domestic issues country is sinking in (ironically, that is what is very much alike between Russia and the US - often getting their noses somewhere they have no business in and neglecting domestic problems at the same time). Corruption is on such a rise in Russia that I could have never imagined before. Just a couple of recent personal examples - when I was getting my first driver's license in Russia back in 2005 it was a complicated and bureaucratic process, I had to take the driving portion of a test 2 or 3 times, but nobody ever openly demanded any bribes. Fast forward to March 2014, a new driver comes to the very SAME place (kind of like MVC in NJ) to get a new driver's license... and is told (with a shining smile of an officer behind a counter) that the nearest exam date would be in the end of July. Big smile. No, we don't care that by that time your theory portion of the exam expires. We have a long waiting list. F*** o** ... or... go to that man and he will tell you how to get your driving license next week(!!!).

 

Litigation system? Oh my, my worst nightmare lately. One of my close relatives is a defendant in an absolutely baseless and frivolous civil lawsuit right now. There is absolutely no credible proof on plaintiff's side with compelling proof on my relative's side. There have already been 6 or 7 hearings and after the last one my relative's attorney has been invited to judge chambers where he got told that "he should clearly understand that despite all the testimonies and all the proof the court ruling would NOT be in his favor ... just because it can't be... well.. you understand". He will clearly go up to the next judicial level and most likely win there, but here the message was VERY clear. Bravo, this is a great achievement of Putin and I love it!

 

I can really comment on more of those statements above but I don't feel it would be interesting for the wider crowd and I don't really want to insult anyone, let alone Maksim, the forum admin )) I can only say that my wife, then-fiancee actually lived and studied in Ukraine for several years and being Russian speaking has not led her to any troubles at all. I have been flying back and forth to Kiev and Crimea for several years and never ... I would emphasize ... never encountered absolutely any issues with that. I can even say that people in Crimea (friends/relatives) seemed very happy with what they had at that time and nobody seriously thought about moving out somewhere. Funny thing - now they do, because they have absolutely no clarity on what would happen to them in the next year...

 

As for the sanctions - I am personally very glad that US and EU started to punch Russian government and government-tied businesses with that. In fact, I will most likely suffer personally as I work for an international company with extensive Russian operations, but I will be extremely glad if US and EU finally grow THEIR balls at some point and start imposing sanctions against Russia. In the end of the day, it's a pretty much stone age country technologically - let Visa and MC cut their processing for Russia, introduce export restrictions on a couple of serious IT vendors and the whole country's banking system (!) will deeply collapse in a matter of days as there is NO national payment processing, no domestically designed & assembled hardware like in many other more developed countries, no needed talent etc etc..

 

And, as a final note, don't really get me wrong and consider me pro-Ukrainian or nazi or whatever. In fact, I don't seriously care about Ukrainians at all (Oleg, sorry, not to personally insult anyone) and I am confident that Ukrainians (same as Russians actually) are the first to be blamed for what is going on there now. They had plenty of chances to turn everything around over the last decade but they pretty much fu**ed all up. Amen. We'll see what it ends up with and clearly my heart goes to those who directly suffer from this now (regardless of their ethnicity / citizenship etc.), but I clearly don't want to be involved in it at all (especially financially, even indirectly).

 

**

 

But what I would fully agree with Maksim is that the media coverage of the situation is not bad, it's simply terrible. This crisis is a unique situation that clearly shows how media can be used pretty much everywhere to manipulate people. Turn any Russian channel on and listen to how great it is in Crimea now, how people are happy etc. Turn any UK station on - and listen to how terrible it is in Crimea, how good in Kiev etc... I can't really tell where to look for truth, but it's definitely NOT in the mainstream media for sure...

 

 

***

 

Um, that is most likely my longest post here. I promise not to post anything like that anymore, LOL ))

[Zeke 5,504]

Holy chit!

Thank you guys for your insight! Obviously no clear solution

[Oleg 8]

Here is a good article about use of media in this war - http://www.nybooks.com/blogs/nyrblog/2014/apr/28/ukraine-hate-progress/

 

It is also worth looking at reportages by Simon Ostrovsky from Vice (there are plenty on youtube). This guy have some serious balls and gets right in the middle of conflict.

 

A little bit about Russian's pseudo-patriotism - http://euromaidanpr.com/2014/04/29/children-of-russian-officials-prefer-overseas/

[Oleg 8]

One more point. There was a point in my life when I almost got into Ukrainian army (after getting higher education). This was worse than going into prison. Army in 1990th was a seriously screwed and bad place to be. I got lucky and did not get in there. For a long time I tried hard to avoid routes that lead past the local army enlistment center.

 

I have business partners in Ukraine. When SHTF out there many of my coworkers went to that army enlistment center to sign up into army. There were several thousand people over there for several days. This is in the city where practically nobody speaks Ukrainian. In fact the first time I heard a clean Ukrainian in family level conversation was here in NJ! And I traveled extensively all over the place in Ukraine back in the day.

Army did not take them all right away but some of my friends got enlisted finally.

 

For me it is one of the strangest twists in a whole ordeal.

[Hooligan 0]

Thank you for all of your input.  I'm skeptical of the media, but wasn't aware that the misinformation was this bad.  Lots to think about.  

[302w 83]

I can't post my true, complete thoughts on my phone, but...

 

Sudetenland anyone?

[remixer 1,645]

(after all, Russia actually has account surpluses instead of trillions in Debt. lol).

 

 

Not sure why you LOL at this... You think Putin is an economics genius or is he and Russia living off the LUCK of having natural resources under there feet.... If oil dropped to 20 bucks a barrel or natural gas prices dropped by 75 percent would you still LOL, i doubt it.

 

I can think of a few Arab countries that have surpluses also is that genius or luck. They drive Bentleys and shit on gold toilets what does that make them?

 

If the US would release its oil and natural gas these countries would be eating bread and water within a few years.

 

That being said. I do not think the US should be getting into a shooting war over this, if you think Putin is only doing this to protect Russians you off base... He has visions of the old soviet union and eastern Europe should be concerned.

 

This is what happens when you put a chess player VS a checkers player. Obamas stupidity and weakness does not elevate Putins genius at all.  Reagan VS Putin would be no contest,

[mikka1 2]

(...) In the end of the day, it's a pretty much stone age country technologically - let Visa and MC cut their processing for Russia, introduce export restrictions on a couple of serious IT vendors and the whole country's banking system (!) will deeply collapse in a matter of days as there is NO national payment processing, no domestically designed & assembled hardware like in many other more developed countries, no needed talent etc etc..

(...)

 

Aaaand I just mentioned it only yesterday and here it comes!

 

http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2014_04_30/Microsoft-Oracle-Symantec-and-HP-to-join-US-sanctions-against-Russian-companies-7256/

"American IT companies, including Microsoft, Oracle, Symantec and Hewlett-Packard (HP) cease cooperation with banks and companies, against which the US government has imposed sanctions, sources in the IT departments of the two banks, which previously fell under the US sanctions (...)"

 

I am curious to see how those banks will operate now with a huge share of their business purely dependent on foreign software, hardware, technologies etc.. Probably they will be processing payments the old school way, with pencils and large ledgers...

[Kaiser7 33]

I know this, under Stalin when Ukranians opposed their absorbtion into the USSR, all the food they produced was forcefully taken, allowing millions to starve. Ironically the Russian and Ukranian peoples share a common history (no surprise). When the Rus--vikings--raided and settled down the Volga, they first created the province of Kiev. Muscovia was just a back-water trading region until they defeated the Tartars (or perhaps the Huns or Mongols, I cannot remember off the top of my head). After that the power balance shifted to Muscovia. 

 

Russia has not been kind to the Ukraine people.

 

I have a lot of Ukranian friends, and I will say the Ukranians I know are the nicest damn people I've ever met, and I do not want their people to suffer. I see parallels to Crimea and the Sudetenland. I hope that Russia will stop there, but I fear that much like Germany, they will not stop until they absorb all of the Ukraine. I am not sure if the US should get involved. The stakes in a potential conflict here is much greater than with stopping Nazi Germany. Nuclear war is unlikely due to mutually assured destruction, but a more stealthy biological attack would be much harder to pin on Russia. I pray that calmer heads will prevail, but this is a very scary situation.

[Handyman 5,682]

This is Russia's right to defend their ethnic people.  

 

Maksim, I appreciate your words to bring balance to a complex situation that I do not really understand well. But I am not sure what you mean by this. Should Mexico be able to invade Texas if they get the impression we are not treating their illegal immigrants well?

[mikka1 2]

Maksim, I appreciate your words to bring balance to a complex situation that I do not really understand well. But I am not sure what you mean by this. Should Mexico be able to invade Texas if they get the impression we are not treating their illegal immigrants well?

 

Totally wrong comparison - most of "ethnic Russians" living in ex-USSR countries are not _illegals_ there! The majority of them gathered respective passports almost automatically after the collapse of USSR, so they are technically citizens of those countries (there is one notable exception to this with Latvia and its "Non-Citizen Passports", but that's another story).

Over last 10 or 20 years Russia had a so-called "Relocation program for ethnic Russians" (as many other countries did, like Germany for ethnic Germans in Kazakhstan) according to which those who wanted to relocate from literally any country in the world back to Russia (and had Russian ethnic roots) could have done so on rather favorable conditions (moving all personal belongings without any customs duties, immediate citizenship etc. etc.). Needless to say that those programs have been used maybe by hundreds or at most thousands of people (so, in other words, were complete fiasco) while millions of Russians abroad kept their residence in all other countries, most likely, because they were happy with their lives, right? So all of a sudden now everyone needs to believe that ethnic Russians somehow had a bad life in Ukraine, Latvia, Estonia? If it was THAT bad, why haven't they moved a long time ago?

 

A more proper example (though a funny and obviously unrealistic one AND absolutely not historically precise) would be calling Brighton Beach in Brooklyn a Russian territory just because the majority of its residents are supposedly ethnic Russians regardless of their legal status here (though, on my second thought I realized your example with Texas and Mexicans is not totally wrong if we don't mention that they might be illegals).

Things in Crimea and many Ukrainian territories are even more complex, so it's absolutely no surprise that those tensions are almost inevitable...

[remixer 1,645]

This entire mess goes back to the Clinton administration.     They broke an agreement not the expand NATO towards Russia's borders. That policy was continued Bush and Obama. Then Obama asked the UN for a no fly zone in Libya, The Russians were going to veto that until Obama promised the no fly zone will not include Aircraft from the West attacking Pro Libyan forces.  Obama broke the agreement that was made,  Russia no longer trusted obama at his word (sounds like us). This was pretty much an over reaction by Putin or the 50 or so real leaders of Russia who are not in front of the camera that the west was going to increase its influence in the Ukraine.

 

So pretty much Russia preemptively acted based on the distrust they have of our current administration.  Don't you find it funny how Putin and Obama have complete different accounts on how a conversation went between them?   Iv also read that Putin has such a distrust of Obama that any agreements between them must be verified with Germany to make sure its not a complete fabrication or to at least have someone from the west that Putin can trust to give the Nod.

 

In the end This is NOT all on Putin its largely the fault of an amateur president (Obama) lying to world leaders and Clinton breaking the original agreement we had with Russia.

[remixer 1,645]

Maksim, I appreciate your words to bring balance to a complex situation that I do not really understand well. But I am not sure what you mean by this. Should Mexico be able to invade Texas if they get the impression we are not treating their illegal immigrants well?

 

Well Texas would fight back.... I think Mexico should take California LOL

[njpilot 671]

Well Texas would fight back.... I think Mexico should take California LOL

I think we should give them CA.

[Zeke 5,504]

American troops heading to Latvia?