Recent Gas Prices -- WTF !

[greatgunstatenj 32]

If we were progressing by the leaps and bounds we thought we would be.... We would have flying cars by now!

 

Soon... http://www.terrafugia.com/ and for around the same price as a 1995 Lambo Diablo VT! haha

[greatgunstatenj 32]

Sure there is better technology, but define better. Electric motors can develop HUGE torque but batteries suck, you can only store so much electricity. Hydrogen power would be awesome except for the part that making it is more expensive then oil for the power it produces, its highly explosive (see Hindenburg circa 1937) and you depend on the local teenager to handle it at the gas station not to mention crashes. Gasoline is remarkably stable, easy to transport, store and fuel into vehicles for the power it provides.

 

We could make cars lighter but we would have to use aluminum and carbon fiber for the components both of which cost a lot more then steel. It is all a trade off.

 

 

 

Direct injected engines, variable displacement, more efficient turbochargers, all those things are now common in cars. They are pretty significant leaps, improve performance and fuel economy, and cost more. The problem is not lack of innovation, there has been plenty, the problem is that people want more car. People want more horsepower, bigger cars, AWD or 4WD, limited slip, navigation systems, 10 speaker stereo's, blue tooth, etc, etc. All those things add weight and use power the engine has to generate. My 1997 Jetta had 115bhp, for that horse power today you can get 60+ mpg with a similar fit.

 

I'm all for Diesel engines but until very recently they were much dirtier and performed nowhere near as well and it still comes from oil. If you want to make it from soy beans or rapeseed you are looking at around 1 acre per 100 gallons. At 255mil vehicles in the US, using an average of 280 gallons per year (based on internet data) that means we need 111mil square miles of soy beans per year which is roughly 70% of the entire surface of the world, oceans included. And that's for the US alone.

 

Electric, Hydrogen, Bio Fuel, add solar... they don't meet my definition of better for many of the reasons you mentioned. As well as others, electricity is a farce considering our electricity comes from coal. If it came from clean nuclear maybe...? Of course that isn't to say that future improvements on those technologies won't make them viable.

 

The computer industry has gone from punch cards to "ludicrous speed" in 50 years give or take. There have been great advancements of luxury, handling, and some powerplant improvements but the basic mechanics, wastefulness, and MPG problems haven't changed nearly as much, imo.

 

I can't really define better. If I knew of a sure fire way to do it better I'd be rich or have drowned at sea on one of my scuba trips!

[Vlad G 345]

Well as someone who works with computers, I can say it is an invalid comparison. For one we've had cars for over 100 years, we are now squeezing the very last bit out of them, and really we are taking about engine technology in general so you probably need to move 70+ years further back for steam. Computers have been around quite a bit less.

 

The more telling point though is power usage, because it turns out computers use it too. You roll back the time machine to the IBM PC its power supply was 130 watt. A current desktop is more common around 360 Watt for a bottom rung machine, 700+ watt for a performance computer. Laptops do better, but I'm comparing the top of the line here.

[SpacemanFry 51]

Well as someone who works with computers, I can say it is an invalid comparison. For one we've had cars for over 100 years, we are now squeezing the very last bit out of them, and really we are taking about engine technology in general so you probably need to move 70+ years further back for steam. Computers have been around quite a bit less.

 

The more telling point though is power usage, because it turns out computers use it too. You roll back the time machine to the IBM PC its power supply was 130 watt. A current desktop is more common around 360 Watt for a bottom rung machine, 700+ watt for a performance computer. Laptops do better, but I'm comparing the top of the line here.

 

Actually that's not quite true. The CPU itself uses less power than the old generations. It's all the new peripherals and fancy addons that make computers require massive power supplies. The biggest power culprit in the last 1.5 decades has been the graphics card.

[SpacemanFry 51]

Electric, Hydrogen, Bio Fuel, add solar... they don't meet my definition of better for many of the reasons you mentioned. As well as others, electricity is a farce considering our electricity comes from coal. If it came from clean nuclear maybe...? Of course that isn't to say that future improvements on those technologies won't make them viable.

 

The computer industry has gone from punch cards to "ludicrous speed" in 50 years give or take. There have been great advancements of luxury, handling, and some powerplant improvements but the basic mechanics, wastefulness, and MPG problems haven't changed nearly as much, imo.

 

If you compare the speed, handling, safety, comfort etc of a Model-T with a top of the line car today it's also a HUUUUGE difference. You can't compare MPG increases with speed increases in computers as that's not a valid comparison. If you compare power consumed then the comparison is slightly more relevant and there both industries have made some improvements but nothing mind-boggling.

 

The biggest limitation for the transportation industry (and many many other industries) is energy storage. That's been what's kept electric cars, flying cars, etc from being practical. If we had cheap, reliable, small and dense energy storage it would dramatically change not just he transportation industry but pretty much every other industry out there. IMO, efficient energy storage is the key to everything, not energy generation. And that's what's made oil so attractive, it's a very dense, stable and cheap* energy storage. Of course it's not clean and the cheapness is slowly eroding so now we must find another energy storage medium, preferably one that we can generate.

[M4BGRINGO 139]

$3-something isn't bad, better than about $14/gallon like I pay...................

 

Direct Cylinder Injection is a really cool idea and available on several engines right now, foreign and domestic.

 

Diesel is great for MPG, but the cost of the fuel has risen dramatically and is almost negating the benefit due to the purchase cost of the vehicles. The gasoline versions are cheaper to buy.

 

I bought two little beater S-10's to get around town with and keep local with them, they've had a hard life. I kinda feel like I'm "slummin" in those hoopties! Hey, they get 20+ around town compared to my truck which gets 10, and they are far easier to park in my town.

[Vlad G 345]

Actually that's not quite true. The CPU itself uses less power than the old generations.

 

Huh .... Intel 8080 (from the IBM PC) power dissipation 1.25W. Core i7 desktop power dissipation of 95-130W. That is about 100 times more?

[this_is_nascar 162]

Come on guys . We went from talking about gas prices, to a pissing contest about CPU power consumption. That deserves a WTF too.

[Vlad G 345]

It actually make the parallel more relevant. You compared advancement in computer power to car advancements. My point is it came at a price.

 

My position on the gas prices issues in a nut shell is: If you don't like the gas prices, buy a less powerful car that gets better millage instead of buying a "better" car. My first car was a Mitsubishi Starion that got 18 mpg. Gas was $1.25 so I didn't care. A 180hp car today would get 30+ mpg, but I buy 250+hp cars. The car has advanced and uses less gas, but we buy bigger cars that use more gas. It isn't that the car hasn't advanced fast enough, its just that our expectation of it are growing faster then science can make new ones. If you think science and engineering are too slow, no one is stopping you from designing a better car.

[SpacemanFry 51]

Huh .... Intel 8080 (from the IBM PC) power dissipation 1.25W. Core i7 desktop power dissipation of 95-130W. That is about 100 times more?

 

You're right, I was more thinking across similar CPU generations. Comparing a 6000 transistor chip running at 2MHz to a one that has ~2+ Billion transistors at 3+GHz is not exactly "fair" :-)

[usnmars 136]

I am doing what i can to lower gas prices through domestic exploration and production. Buy Shell gas, it pays my paycheck!

[greatgunstatenj 32]

Actually that's not quite true. The CPU itself uses less power than the old generations. It's all the new peripherals and fancy addons that make computers require massive power supplies. The biggest power culprit in the last 1.5 decades has been the graphics card.

 

The point was that now we have CPUs as opposed to vacuum tubes and one day we will probably have some sort of bio-based low energy processing power and memory. Those advancements are already being worked on by companies like IBM. You partially made my point for me, computers have been around for much less time than automobiles and already there have been many leaps and bounds, the latest being x86 virtualization and consolidation to lower costs of power and cooling. From punch cards to vacuum tubes to microprocessors, from computers that filled a building in the 70s to much more powerful computers that are now carried around as phones. Some might consider that mind-boggling advancement, at the very least, damn impressive.

 

Intel 8080 vs Intel i7

Intel 8080 1.25w - 500 kIPS at 2 MHz

Intel i7 130w - 177,730 MIPS at 3.33 GHz

 

Yes, the i7 uses 100x more power but the performance blows the 8080 out the water millions and millions of times over.

 

I agree with your point on storing energy. Definitely a big issue for electric cars, etc. If we improve in that area perhaps we can shift to cleaner electricity too, currently 45% of our electricity comes from coal.

[raz-0 1,259]

Actually that's not quite true. The CPU itself uses less power than the old generations. It's all the new peripherals and fancy addons that make computers require massive power supplies. The biggest power culprit in the last 1.5 decades has been the graphics card.

 

No, no it is not. Per operation perhaps, but the total thermal dissipation of today's CPUs is absolutely insane compared to olde CPUs. My current badass pc has the exact same number of peripherals compared to my old bad a** PC sitting in the corner. I also have kill-o-watt meter. The old one draws about 250 watts full load. The new one draws over 450. The old box has two discreet CPUs with a maximum thermal dissipation of 65 watts. The new one has a single cpu with a maximum thermal dissipation of 125 watts.

 

As for the griping about cars not improving. You ahve car that weighs about 400lbs more, has awd, likely a lot more horsepower, and only gets 20% less MPG? There's a TON of improvement in efficiency there. Heck, I had an AWD eclipse, and some of the tuners did some testing when they got their first AWD dynos. The difference in efficiency just by disconnecting the transfer case and going to 2wd waws about 25%. Adding AWD, more power, and more weight while only losing 20% of MPG is pretty good IMO.

 

TO put it in perspective, I had a 1988 toyota camry. It was an 85hp, 2500lb deathtrap that got 42mpg at 60mph on the highway with crusie control on. The new Hyundia elantra is about 200lbs heavier, gets similar MPG, and has 142hp while having a 5 star crash rating and a top safety rating from IIHS, and actually has a more roomy interior. It's emissions are light years better as well. That's just 12 years of progress for a technology where we are in the long tail.

[rdsmith3 19]

You probably know this, but if you're near the GS Parkway, get gas today. All the gas stations on the GSP raise their prices on Fridays. In periods of rising gas prices, you get a good deal on Thursday, before the weekly increase. Today it is $3.13

[hd2000fxdl 422]

Soon... http://www.terrafugia.com/ and for around the same price as a 1995 Lambo Diablo VT! haha

 

Thats what I though back in the 70's when I you could buy plans for them from the back of a Popular Science magazine.

[Pew Pew Plates 358]

We should just go back to steam

 

 

 

Its only about 1,000 lbs of coal an hour LOL

[BOOMSTICK 6]

$3.10 in Browns Mills near Ft Dix.

[this_is_nascar 162]

I remember, as kid, playing in the coal-bin just waiting for the coal to be delivered. My brother and I would stand on the floor, while the driver let the coal slide down the slide, through the window. We'd let it get knee high before my Mom would give us sh*t and make us move outside the coal-bin, but once it was all delivered, we could climb the coal hills in the coal-bin. Damn, I miss those days. I remember stoking the coal furnace to keep it going, shoveling fresh coal into it to keep the house warm overnight. The worse was lugging those buckets of ashes up the steps, though the house, to be put outside for the trashman to pickup. In the winter, those ashes, make some pretty good "rock salt" to keep from slipping on the snow and ice, but damn was it dirty. Totally destroyed the rugs when you'd track it into the house. That's why, back then, having carpets in the home was not a very common thing.

[Krdshrk 3,878]

... did you get Coal for xmas?

[tony357 386]

We should just go back to steam

 

 

 

Its only about 1,000 lbs of coal an hour LOL

 

Santaclaus must hate your stop..

[this_is_nascar 162]

... did you get Coal for xmas?

 

 

Nope. Believe it or not, that never happened. Never had "coal in the stocking".

[Vlad G 345]

So I did some math and research, you'll have to suffer me for a bit, I know math is hard

 

From a barrel of light crude oil (42 gallons) you get 19.4 gallons of gasoline, 10 of diesel, 3.8 of jet fuel, 1.8 of heating oil, 1.7 of LPG, and the rest becomes motor oil, plastics, lubricants, asphalt, tires, etc. I'm going to assume for this exercise that that every gallon of stuff sells for the same amount regardless of what it is. This is clearly incorrect as a gallon of asphalt is not as much as a gallon of gas, but I'm going to be forgiving to make this simple.

 

Today's cost of light crude is $101 per barrel, give or take a few cents. As far as I can tell this is the cost of a delivered barrel of light crude to a US refinery.

 

With the above assumptions the unrefined cost per gallon of stuff is $2.40. This is the cost of drilling the stuff out of the ground, shipping across a desert, loading it on a boat, sailing it half way across the world, and paying everyone involved in that process, plus whatever taxes, bribes, paying for mineral rights, paying for cleaning up the sea gulls with dish soap when something gets spilled, whatever.

 

Now the $2.40 worth of stuff needs to be refined. This takes energy and works because people at the refinery want to eat, and the owners of the refinery want to make money. Silly them. Also, taxed. Oh and don't forget insurance.

 

Now we have real gasoline, yay. Except it is in Texas or where ever so it needs to get shipped on truck, that burns fuel and who's driver also wants to eat, silly him. In New Jersey we are rather lucky as we have our own refineries so the shipping cost is lower. Also this gets taxed.

 

Of course now the gas needs to get the gas station which needs to be maintained insured, employes payed, advertised and of course taxed.

 

Oh, and then it gets and extra tax just because its gasoline and obviously evil.

 

And then I buy it for $3.19 as of today.

 

This means for every gallon of stuff I buy $0.79 of it is NOT the raw material price and goes to the refinery (and its workers) transportation (and its workers) gas stations (and its workers) and government (and its workers). Given this stuff had to be dug out from 1000ft of dirt, pumped, loaded on a boat, moved half way across the world, refined, transported, advertised, retailed, pumped, and oh yes taxed this doesn't seem so bad seeing how no name gallon of "spring water" costs $1.05 at my local grocer and this stuff mostly comes from some local towns water supply, gravity filtered and some salt added to it and then shipped 30 miles or whatever.

 

In the grand scheme of things $3.19 doesn't seem so bad, does it?

[hd2000fxdl 422]

Vlad, and what changed over the last 10 years that took the Price from Sub 30 dollars to the current days price??

 

Demand has increased in line with the past, product availability is the same ok, how was anyone making any money on sub 30 dollar a barrel oil?

 

Come one, think back to odd/even day fill-ups, remember sitting at the beach and all you could see were tankers as far as the eye could see, but no we had a shortage.

 

Oil, and all of it's byproducts cost to the customer are not in line with anything tangible, there is not supply disruption, there is no great demand change, speculation, pure speculation.

 

If not, tell me any other product that has increased at the same rate as OIL and it's byproducts, and if you can, please tell me what has changed to have the price increase this much in this short a period of time, other than just bigger company profits.

[Vlad G 345]

A number of things have changed.

 

1) Consumption world wide has grown about 20% since then

2) Refining capacity decreased (302 refineries in the US in 1982, 147 in 2008)

3) Inflation

4) Dollar exchange rate

5) More taxes of every kind at every level

6) World instability (from 9/11, wars, Iran, Libya, Venezuela, all that jazz)

7) More speculation cause our markets are controlled by compulsive gamblers, but on the other hand don't forget your 401k, pension plan, etc also are invested in those things

8) Increased regulation at every step of the way

9) A restriction on exploration and exploitation

10) Also China happened

11) Diminishing returns, we've already pulled all the easy oil, now shale oil and deep sea drilling make sense to extract which means the easy to get stuff is gone. Easy equals cheap here.

12) "Clean air" which means more expensive production and additives

13) Ethanol which basically costs more

 

Should I go on?

 

Edited to add: Lots of things have changed as much or more. Copper, gold, silver, rare earth metals, etc, etc.

[hd2000fxdl 422]

Please Vlad, in 1999 the barrel of oil dipped to 17 dollars at one point during that year (oil companies were still making profits).

 

Tell me something else that has increased more than 5 fold in the last 13 years.. I wish I could do that, heck I only plan on doubling my net-worth every 7 years and have been on par with that from about 1981 so am not new at his.

 

Remember I am talking real changes, not excuses.. More than 500.00% increase over that period of time is not justifiable.

[Vlad G 345]

While I'm at it, lets compare other commodity prices over the same time period as the $30 to $100 gas delta, 3 times the price

 

Corn 2.5 times the price

Soy 2 times the price

Cattle 2.1 times the price

Copper 3.1 times the price

Gold 8 times the price

Silver 3.5 times the price

 

And thats as far as I can bother

[hd2000fxdl 422]

Delete, I'm done..

 

I just know if I was able to invest at the same rate, I'd be hosting USPSA, Steel, and IDPA every weekend at my own private range for all the folks here.

[Midwest 28]

$3.39 in Kentucky, our prices have always been higher than NJ.

[this_is_nascar 162]

So I did some math and research, you'll have to suffer me for a bit, I know math is hard

 

From a barrel of light crude oil (42 gallons) you get 19.4 gallons of gasoline, 10 of diesel, 3.8 of jet fuel, 1.8 of heating oil, 1.7 of LPG, and the rest becomes motor oil, plastics, lubricants, asphalt, tires, etc. I'm going to assume for this exercise that that every gallon of stuff sells for the same amount regardless of what it is. This is clearly incorrect as a gallon of asphalt is not as much as a gallon of gas, but I'm going to be forgiving to make this simple.

 

Today's cost of light crude is $101 per barrel, give or take a few cents. As far as I can tell this is the cost of a delivered barrel of light crude to a US refinery.

 

With the above assumptions the unrefined cost per gallon of stuff is $2.40. This is the cost of drilling the stuff out of the ground, shipping across a desert, loading it on a boat, sailing it half way across the world, and paying everyone involved in that process, plus whatever taxes, bribes, paying for mineral rights, paying for cleaning up the sea gulls with dish soap when something gets spilled, whatever.

 

Now the $2.40 worth of stuff needs to be refined. This takes energy and works because people at the refinery want to eat, and the owners of the refinery want to make money. Silly them. Also, taxed. Oh and don't forget insurance.

 

Now we have real gasoline, yay. Except it is in Texas or where ever so it needs to get shipped on truck, that burns fuel and who's driver also wants to eat, silly him. In New Jersey we are rather lucky as we have our own refineries so the shipping cost is lower. Also this gets taxed.

 

Of course now the gas needs to get the gas station which needs to be maintained insured, employes payed, advertised and of course taxed.

 

Oh, and then it gets and extra tax just because its gasoline and obviously evil.

 

And then I buy it for $3.19 as of today.

 

This means for every gallon of stuff I buy $0.79 of it is NOT the raw material price and goes to the refinery (and its workers) transportation (and its workers) gas stations (and its workers) and government (and its workers). Given this stuff had to be dug out from 1000ft of dirt, pumped, loaded on a boat, moved half way across the world, refined, transported, advertised, retailed, pumped, and oh yes taxed this doesn't seem so bad seeing how no name gallon of "spring water" costs $1.05 at my local grocer and this stuff mostly comes from some local towns water supply, gravity filtered and some salt added to it and then shipped 30 miles or whatever.

 

In the grand scheme of things $3.19 doesn't seem so bad, does it?

 

 

To be honest I was intruiqued by your post until I got to the end. Bottom, the oil companies are seeing billions, I said billions, in profits each year. Doesn't matter if you're using old math or new math, there's a problem with that much profit being made.

[this_is_nascar 162]

$3.39 in Kentucky, our prices have always been higher than NJ.

 

 

NJ is only known for have a few things that are consistently lower than the national average. Gas is the big one. I think alcohol may be another.