Precious metals getting hammered today

[Vlad G 345]

 

Ahh, the run for the door. Take a look at this (a nice read for all of us):

http://www.zerohedge...e-saw-gold-drop

 

For those wanting to understand a little more, read the comments. LOL, some are very funny, bizarre, and some are real pro's just sharing data/info. Look at the time stamps and what happened at today's close......

 

Zero hedge comments are always a laugh and sometimes more informative then the articles, if they manage to not stray into the "the Jews and bankers are out to kill us" land too much.

[BleedingOrange36 0]

A very good read I found through the previous link posted.

http://sprottmoneyblog.com/#

[monmouth 19]

I am frigging loving this thread

 

What I learned is that there is a difference between those that want to own metals because they think they hold up value "better" than stocks or bonds because those markets will tumble....

 

Versus those that don't really care about how much they "lose" when SHTF because they think the banking system will not exist so it's always better than cash.

 

 

Kudos to both. They both serve a purpose. I love this debate

 

I like using this example, but in 1964, a quarter roughly bought a gallon of gas. Today, same quarter will buy you a gallon of gas. As to the banking system (I can make you all snooze about this in a new thread), every central bank in the world uses the same system. Lucky for us, we will be last to go poof into the night, hahahaha. Unfortunately, due to the principles of math, every central bank will go poof into the night due to compound interest, money velocity, etc.... Historically, it's known that every system has collapsed but the timing of said event is the unknown.

[monmouth 19]

Zero hedge comments are always a laugh and sometimes more informative then the articles, if they manage to not stray into the "the Jews and bankers are out to kill us" land too much.

Usually preceded by a Rothschild reference.

[Maksim 1,504]

Personally I am glad commodities are blowing up... time to find the next bubble.

 

People have to realize, long term, they are just a hedge.

 

Yes, Platinum and Silver have a ton of uses for them, and why I like them as metals, both as long term hedge against inflation, but to have as well.

 

SHTF situation? Well, if it is like Falling Skies or Zombie crap... I would rather have Lead and gun powder. =P

 

If it is just a slowdown or economic issues I would rather be invested in solid companies.... everyone will still need to buy toilet paper, coke, etc.

 

Most of all, make sure you understand why you own what you own and for what purpose. Have a defined risk factor.

 

The three institutional guys I talked with today (including Fidelity) mentioned 1200, and if it breaks that... more issues.

 

RBS has been out of gold in their commodity strategies for the past 3 weeks. I feel like a dummy for ringing the cash register and selling my $25 call options which were Out of the Money at the time on DUST. I make the right calls, but out too soon. eh.

 

If Silver breaks $20, I will be adding to my bullion coins collection and picking up maple leafs, brittanias, and mexican libertards (spelling).

 

In the short term... expect more volatility until all the margin calls are triggered.

 

Oil fell from the high of $143 down to mid $40's very very quickly, before stabilizing to where it should be. I expect gold to do the same.

[Combat Auto 174]

I learned from experience during the Great Internet Bubble of CA 2000:

1) Do not trade on fundimemtals because things can be great fundimentally; but no way of telling what has already been priced into the asset...This is especially true of commodities and metals.

2) Trade based on Technical Analysis - ie charts etc.

3) Never ever listen to the Gurus ESPECILLY when they are all saying the same thing!

 

Gold hit a bubble peak in september 2011 - classic peak (everyone was selling it on CNBC; all your budies own it)....3 times since, it attempted to get near the old high - couldn't do it...It has been forming a huge decending triangle of sorts since - very bearish! - You can see what happen when the bottom of the triangle broke Friday - Niagra Falls!...I have made some money shorting this...Gold suppose to go up when Terrorist Blow things up - yesterday it fell big time....What does that tell you?

 

As far as the future? I learned the hard way not to make predictions...I trade what the charts "tell me"...Has it sold-off enough to bottome? Let's see what the charts say in a few days/weeks...

 

The Administrators should set up a perminate NJ Gun Forum Trading Folder...It would be great fun/keep us busy as we wait for our pistol permits to be approved ;-)! - Can we do this?

[Maksim 1,504]

I learned from experience during the Great Internet Bubble of CA 2000:

1) Do not trade on fundimemtals because things can be great fundimentally; but no way of telling what has already been priced into the asset...This is especially true of commodities and metals.

2) Trade based on Technical Analysis - ie charts etc.

3) Never ever listen to the Gurus ESPECILLY when they are all saying the same thing!

 

Gold hit a bubble peak in september 2011 - classic peak (everyone was selling it on CNBC; all your budies own it)....3 times since, it attempted to get near the old high - couldn't do it...It has been forming a huge decending triangle of sorts since - very bearish! - You can see what happen when the bottom of the triangle broke Friday - Niagra Falls!...I have made some money shorting this...Gold suppose to go up when Terrorist Blow things up - yesterday it fell big time....What does that tell you?

 

As far as the future? I learned the hard way not to make predictions...I trade what the charts "tell me"...Has it sold-off enough to bottome? Let's see what the charts say in a few days/weeks...

 

The Administrators should set up a perminate NJ Gun Forum Trading Folder...It would be great fun/keep us busy as we wait for our pistol permits to be approved ;-)! - Can we do this?

 

Quite the opposite.... the tech bubble was all about technicals... and not about fundamentals.

 

Fundamentals, you are valuing the company based on earnings, and projected future growth....

 

Pets.com, and others were trading way the hell above any long term averages of earnings, most were not even profitable.

 

They were going up because of pretty charts.... until they did not.

 

Gold, Oil, Housing... all bubbles were speculation support with charts.

 

Talk to any technical trader and if they honest, they will all say, the same chart can be manipulate to tell you anything you want to see.

 

Combine Fundamental research..... WITH technical analysis for entry and exit points.... now you are talking.

[Combat Auto 174]

Quite the opposite.... the tech bubble was all about technicals... and not about fundamentals.

 

Fundamentals, you are valuing the company based on earnings, and projected future growth....

 

Pets.com, and others were trading way the hell above any long term averages of earnings, most were not even profitable.

 

They were going up because of pretty charts.... until they did not.

 

Gold, Oil, Housing... all bubbles were speculation support with charts.

 

Talk to any technical trader and if they honest, they will all say, the same chart can be manipulate to tell you anything you want to see.

 

Combine Fundamental research..... WITH technical analysis for entry and exit points.... now you are talking.

We all have ingrained belief systems - your welcom to yours...I can tell that you have not studied technical anaylsis or you would not make a statement like that...There are no perfect systems, but with charts you have a much better chance trading...Most of the beliefs which are "anti-charting" have been years and years of brainwashing from the finacial establishment - esp mutual fund and index products and finacial advisors...They get a vig for doing nothing but holding your money (and such push buy and hold)....What you are missing in your statement is that the charts will get you to ride the bubble, and then get out at the right time (not at the perfect top but close enough)...Believe me, I lost a bundle in 2000 cause I belive in "the fundies"...Made it back, and got out before the crash in 2008...Second time around I used technical analysis...It took me several years to wash out the brainwashing of the finacial establishment - but I did it through self-education....This is analogous to the 9mm vs 45 cal debate....Beliefs are so ingrained it is very hard to change them.

[Maksim 1,504]

No no... I have been trading on techinicals for about 10 years now. I invest on fundamentals.

 

There is a huge difference between investing and trading, but I am sure you know that. I am sure you also know the statistics of the traders who trade for a living and how many of them actually make money.

 

I know of 2 traders from the top of my head who actually make a good living doing so, and neither of them will tell you it is investing. For that, I know of countless traders who lost the majority of their money.

 

You don't trade on fundamentals.

 

the .com bubble was all greed, much like the so called housing experts that sold people investment properties, and the so called gold bugs.

 

Fundamentals? Starbucks @ 12 a share, Smith Wesson at 2.50, Barclays, Constellation energy, Prudential and other bank preferreds yielding between 25% and 40% annually as a QDI (qualified Dividend Income) taxed at 5%.

 

Charts as any statistics, can always lie.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Maksim 1,504]

...and there is no 9 vs 45 debate.... they are both good for whatever you need them for. =)

 

It's not about one or the other.

 

You either trade for a living....

 

or you invest on fundamentals long term.

 

 

[A-Tech 8]

I wish I knew what the hell you guys were talking about.....

[Combat Auto 174]

...and there is no 9 vs 45 debate.... they are both good for whatever you need them for. =)

 

It's not about one or the other.

 

You either trade for a living....

 

or you invest on fundamentals long term.

Agreed - but my point was - during the countless times it was debated all over the internet, I have never ever seen 1 person flip to the other side...Beliefs run very deep...and it takes alot of time and effort to change them (weather for oneself or if so inclined to change another's beliefs).

[RubberBullets 65]

I wish I knew what the hell you guys were talking about.....

 

To explain as it pertains to precious metals good sir.... this screen grab has never been more relevant in its use.

 

[Combat Auto 174]

No no... I have been trading on techinicals for about 10 years now. I invest on fundamentals.

 

There is a huge difference between investing and trading, but I am sure you know that. I am sure you also know the statistics of the traders who trade for a living and how many of them actually make money.

 

I know of 2 traders from the top of my head who actually make a good living doing so, and neither of them will tell you it is investing. For that, I know of countless traders who lost the majority of their money.

 

You don't trade on fundamentals.

 

the .com bubble was all greed, much like the so called housing experts that sold people investment properties, and the so called gold bugs.

 

Fundamentals? Starbucks @ 12 a share, Smith Wesson at 2.50, Barclays, Constellation energy, Prudential and other bank preferreds yielding between 25% and 40% annually as a QDI (qualified Dividend Income) taxed at 5%.

 

Charts as any statistics, can always lie.

You can trade bubbles very easy with technical analsis/charts (=TA)...Actually, they are a great time to use TA...Rid it up, get out...I did it with Gold, then I shorted it as posted...I didn't grab every point up and down - you never do that if you use proper TA risk management...But I have done way better than anyone who bought Gold on fundies 2 years ago (they havn't made a dime. *and may have lost a bunch if they bought somewhare in btwn.

[Combat Auto 174]

No no... I have been trading on techinicals for about 10 years now. I invest on fundamentals.

 

There is a huge difference between investing and trading, but I am sure you know that. I am sure you also know the statistics of the traders who trade for a living and how many of them actually make money.

 

I know of 2 traders from the top of my head who actually make a good living doing so, and neither of them will tell you it is investing. For that, I know of countless traders who lost the majority of their money.

 

You don't trade on fundamentals.

 

the .com bubble was all greed, much like the so called housing experts that sold people investment properties, and the so called gold bugs.

 

Fundamentals? Starbucks @ 12 a share, Smith Wesson at 2.50, Barclays, Constellation energy, Prudential and other bank preferreds yielding between 25% and 40% annually as a QDI (qualified Dividend Income) taxed at 5%.

 

Charts as any statistics, can always lie.

There is certainly merit to picking up a starbucks early on and sticking with it...But for every starbucks there are many "loosers" - you better have a way to recognize the loosers and cut your losses (majbe vis TA ;-))....As for your trading buddies, they may need to go back to school ;-)...Seriously, not sure what they are doing? Day trading is tough not for me...I do swing trading - many days, weeks, even months...

[A-Tech 8]

 

To explain as it pertains to precious metals good sir.... this screen grab has never been more relevant in its use.

 

 

Ha ha I forgot about this

[monmouth 19]

Are there any preferences for actual silver rounds?

 

Eagles, but the premium is high. You should get some premium back on the sale to ease out of it.

[monmouth 19]

I have a hard time believing that gold is a breaking bubble due to the following:

 

 

Now the tricky part is how do you get "rid" of this slope without having serious deflation? Remember, you need to manufacture more money to ease the payments of debt interest and you need more debt interest to keep the game going. Rinse repeat, rinse repeat, etc.... As you near the end, that line will get steaper and more breathe taking. Sorry, it's math's fault and as soon as the banks can beat math, well, they will win. hehehe.

 

As far as gold being in a bubble, well, maybe. So long as we believe many other things are just as bubble'licious.

But you are called a fool to invest in metal, it doesn't yield, grow, blah blah blah. So I leave you with this thought:

 

- Since 1964, how many ounces of gold are still remaining (not including new mining production)? 90%, 95%, 9x%...... Look at the value of it then and now compared to the pretty charts available via the Federal Reserve (snickers).

- Since 1964, how many companies still remain? Did you pick the correct ones?

[monmouth 19]

...and there is no 9 vs 45 debate.... they are both good for whatever you need them for. =)

 

It's not about one or the other.

 

You either trade for a living....

 

or you invest on fundamentals long term.

 

Nope, disagree. I'd like to share a long term trade with you in regards to metal. Pay attention fellas, you may like this:

 

Gold vs. Silver Ratio

Let's put on a long term starting in 1997

- Buy 100 ounces of silver for $4.70 per ounce or $470 and gold was $337 an ounce

- 71 ounces of silver purchased 1 ounce of gold

Now, Here. We. Go

- Later that year, the ratio dropped below 50 to 1, so we converted all our silver to gold

- We now have 2 ounces of gold, no silver

- 2003, the ratio went back above 70, so we convert back.......

- Now we have 140 ounces of silver, no gold

- 2006, the ratio went back below 50, so we convert back.....

- Now we have 2.8 ounces of gold

- 2008, the ratio went back above 70, so we convert back.....

- Now we have 196 ounces of silver

- 2011, the ratio went back below 50, so we conver back.... again

- 3.92 ounces of gold

- Today, looks like we may head back above 70, so what will we do, yup, the conversion dance....

- 274.4 ounces of silver.

 

Let's assume a modest or bubble breaking silver price of $18. 274.4 ounces @ $18 = $4,939.20

Invest $470 in 1997 and bury it in the backyard would yield $1800 today.

or

Trade lonnnnnnnnng term and now have $4,939.20............ forget that, let's just assume the price DID NOT move one penny so

274.4 ounces @ $4.70 = $1,289.68 compared to the original $470 investment, you judge if that's an adequate return on capital.

 

You can trade ratios for decades

[monmouth 19]

Eagles are going for around 35-45 +/-.....

 

How about generic rounds?

 

That price is gonzo, I could source better. As far as rounds, what do you want to do with them? Remember, buy the most tradeable bullion with the lowest prermium. If not, you will receive pricing from the last resort aka refiner.

[Vlad G 345]

Now the tricky part is how do you get "rid" of this slope without having serious deflation?

Well they way we have been doing it so far has been shadow banking deleveraging. We are throwing "real" money into the pit left by fake leveraged money to avoid deflation. You can take CPI or shadow stats inflation data and it doesn't show a significant bump from helicopters of cash dumped into the hole, relative to previous numbers

 

 

Zero Hedge again explains the problem with this chart:

 

 

Of course, now you end up with actual M3, which so far has been remarkably low velocity. If that velocity picks up, inflation is a go. If that happens at the same time as say the BRICS decide to unload treasuries you got a real problem.

 

This is why I think precious metals are a decent hedge, if that happens you will have a run on anything not dollar denominated, which excludes stocks, bonds, etc. Hell, that might make the current ammo shortage look like a joke, as it would count as a hard asset.

 

Or .. I'm completely wrong and Keynes is completely correct and should just buy Apple.

[Vlad G 345]

Eagles are going for around 35-45 +/-.....

 

How about generic rounds?

 

https://comparesilverprices.com/ Eagles are $27 and change, assuming cash.

[raz-0 1,259]

So what's the best way to sell diamonds.......?

 

Set up a cartel, spend lots of money on advertising to convince people they are a traditional engagement item, then force people to buy a giant pile of crud to get the handful of nice samples, then charge what you want and tell them that if you refuse the offer, they get no more... ever.

 

The diamond market is rigged. There is NO good way to unload a diamond purchased via retail channels without taking a big hit except maybe if you are a skilled amateur jewelry maker.

[Vlad G 345]

You forgot selling to people who want to move large amounts of money across borders, possibly up their rectum.

 

Diamonds are annoying. They are not rare, and being made of the most common element around they can be made in labs.

[AlDente67 563]

If you watch certain cable channels, you'll see the metals trading commercials every 5 minutes. They shifted their pitch from Gold to Silver lately, but the one claim they use is amusing - "90 percent of all Silver that has been mined has been used up!"

Used up?

[bhunted 887]

This due to all these new grills in homeys mouths...

 

If you watch certain cable channels, you'll see the metals trading commercials every 5 minutes. They shifted their pitch from Gold to Silver lately, but the one claim they use is amusing - "90 percent of all Silver that has been mined has been used up!"

Used up?

 

 

Sent from John's iPad 2 via Tapatalk HD

Typos courtesy Apple...

[Vlad G 345]

Most gold ever mined is still around. A lot of the silver mined is no longer really around, it went into electronics, chemicals, solar panels, etc. It hasn't been destroyed, but it has been used and bound and dumped in trash piles as to not be reasonably recoverable. Depending who you believe about half of it has been used up.

[AlDente67 563]

When I got engaged 20 years ago, I paid around 2k for a 1 carat diamond. DeBeers had their long running ad that 2 months salary was the standard for the practice. Lately they switched to 3 months. I can't imagine spending that kind of money on a common element. DeBeers is a genious at marketing.

[Old Glock guy 1,127]

When gold dropped to the 1470's a week ago Friday, I decided it was an opportunity to buy more, since the fundamental issues of deficit spending and debt are still in place. When I bought in last Monday morning at around 1408, I thought I had gotten a fantastic bargain.

 

Watched it drop another $80 or so that day to the 1330's, and all the pundits were saying that gold is dead. At the moment, it's back up to the 1420's, or about $15 an ounce above what I paid for it. Go figure!

 

BTW, I've mostly been buying gold in the form of ETF's that hold bullion, namely GLD and IAU.

[Sig226GuyNJ 128]

I don't know if this is against the rules or not. If it is, I apologize.

 

If you are interested in selling gold, silver, or platinum, I will pay you 90% of market value. Cash for Gold store only pay up to 75% due to their overhead. I have no overhead, and will come to your location of choosing, and pay you 90% of market value using a NJ Weights and Measurements inspected scale. If you're interested, please pm me.