NJ.com- In Wake of police Layoffs Crime Soars

[MrP 81]

While I understand that correlation and causation are not the same, i have to respectfully disagree in this case. When gangbangers are wearing shirts advertising police layoff dates it makes me question your idea of a simple correlation. As someone who has studied criminal justice, it has been proven time and time again that police presence in high risk communities prevents small property crime. These occurrence of these small crimes leads to individuals drifting away from conventional moral values, and allows more crime to ensue. While this is a greatly simplified example of the the "broken windows" effect it still proves the point.

 

According to my Criminology textbook there is no indication that this is true.

[Vlad G 345]

I'd like to point out that my town has very few cops. I'm willing to bet it has far less the Newark per capita. My town doesn't have a crime problem. From that simple fact I'm going to conclude that the number of police officers is NOT the determining factor in crime rates. This is also why my first post said that there is something else at work.

 

Now, if the gangs are wearing t shirts with police reduction dates, that tells me the "market" for crime was high before and after, its just that the opportunity cost might have been reduced. If indeed the Newark residents where just waiting to go on a rampage and they were only deterred by police presence, then we might as well abandon any pretense and just throw a wall around the place and call it a prison. To be honest, I'm not sure on who's side I would be (speaking from some distance), you have to wonder how we managed to end up with a town of nearly 300k people in which complete mayhem is barely contained under a veneer of obedience to police force. To people living in those neighborhoods the idea of a "police state" is not a forum topic, it is daily life. Mind you, I don't blame the cops either, it is just a strange whirlpool that gets worse and worse.

 

A few years ago raz-0 pointed out to me that gangs are just an alternate form of government, when the established government fails. They have their own rules, constitutions, peace treaties, armies, and justice systems. If you find an area of heavy gang influence, you just found an area where the formal government has failed hard.

[Babaganoosh 192]

Just to add my own silly two cents. Specifically related to a particular area in crime I've noticed something interesting over the years. This is not scientific, but observation. After having worked in a trauma center in Camden, there does seem to be a direct correlation with temperature and shootings. As the temperature climbs toward ninety degrees, shootings occur far more often. That's what we called "critical shooting temperature".

 

 

It's not silly. It's true. For the most part the toublemakers in our area are black. Now the majority of black people I know HATE the cold. That keeps them inside their houses and apts in the winter. Less chances and opportunity to cause trouble. Now fast forward to summer. It's very hot out and most low income people cannot afford air conditioning, and if they do it's in the parents bedroom of the house only. Nobody wants to sit in a 110 degree house so what do they do? Take to the porches, streets, street corners, malls, and movie theatres to stay cooler. Well that's where the trouble starts. Especially when you involve some alcohol. Next throw in a couple people with guns. Let's add that a lot of these people don't have jobs. That gives them nothing to do and a lot of free time. An idle mind is the devils playground. So take a bunch of drunk, uneducated, low morale having, bored, wanna-be tough guys who are hanging out in groups and you have a recipe for trouble.

[Vlad G 345]

Its not a race based issue, it is a social and economic based issue. In Camden it may be poor blacks, in Kentucky it is poor whites.

 

BTW I looked up some numbers, these are from 2009.

 

Newark as 277k residents and 1671 law enforcement. Its crime rate is consider HIGH, with 80-100 murders per year.

My home town has about 50k residents and 108 law enforcement. Crime index if far bellow average, with less then one murder per year.

 

1/6th of the population with 1/16th of the police force with 1/80th the number of crimes. I don't think the number of police officers is cause of crime, though it may be a symptom.

[Zell959 40]

For the most part the toublemakers in our area are black. Now the majority of black people I know HATE the cold.

 

Your inclusion of race is pretty unnecessary. Many people choose to stay inside more often when it is cold

 

Now fast forward to summer. It's very hot out and most low income people cannot afford air conditioning, and if they do it's in the parents bedroom of the house only. Nobody wants to sit in a 110 degree house so what do they do? Take to the porches, streets, street corners, malls, and movie theatres to stay cooler. Well that's where the trouble starts. Especially when you involve some alcohol. Next throw in a couple people with guns. Let's add that a lot of these people don't have jobs. That gives them nothing to do and a lot of free time. An idle mind is the devils playground. So take a bunch of drunk, uneducated, low morale having, bored, wanna-be tough guys who are hanging out in groups and you have a recipe for trouble.

 

This is something of a convoluted speculation that is also unnecessary. People often prefer to stay inside when it's cold, and so do criminals. More people go out when its warm, including criminals. More potential victims present + More criminals present = more criminal acts. Done.

[Babaganoosh 192]

Your inclusion of race is pretty unnecessary. Many people choose to stay inside more often when it is cold

 

 

 

This is something of a convoluted stream of speculation that is also unnecessary. People often prefer to stay inside when it's cold, and so do criminals. More people go out when its warm, including criminals. More potential victims present + More criminals present = more criminal acts. Done.

 

It's my opinion based on what I personally witnessed while living in Asbury Park for 5 years as well as from conversations I have had with my black buddies and black coworkers. You don't have to like or agree with my opinion. I'm just putting it out there.

 

Fact of the matter is when its cold or even 50 or 60 degrees you don't see the packs of black dudes hanging out on porches, streets corners, or in malls like you do when it's 90 degrees out.

 

If you have any group of uneducated,unemployed young men hanging out they are going to cause trouble, I'm just saying that in our area it's mostly blacks. Ever been to Wisconsin? You won't find groups of black people, hell, you wont even find groups of Italians.

[Krdshrk 3,878]

Now the majority of black people I know HATE the cold.

 

You should see the kids outside in my neighborhood. Playing basketball in 20 degree weather.

[Babaganoosh 192]

When I was working at Herman Sporting Goods years ago our (black) security guard caught two black chicks stealing. I asked him how he noticed. He said that "They were spending too much time by the sleeping bags in the camping section, us black people don't camp, we hate the cold"

 

Pretty funny guy

[hd2000fxdl 422]

When I was working at Herman Sporting Goods years ago our (black) security guard caught two black chicks stealing. I asked him how he noticed. He said that "They were spending too much time by the sleeping bags in the camping section, us black people don't camp, we hate the cold"

 

Pretty funny guy

 

LOL, , I always remembered Herman's Orange tag sale commercial, it was very funny at the time.

[11b1p 14]

Irrespective of race, Young + Poor = Higher Crime Rates.

[Zell959 40]

It's my opinion based on what I personally witnessed while living in Asbury Park for 5 years as well as from conversations I have had with my black buddies and black coworkers. You don't have to like or agree with my opinion. I'm just putting it out there.

 

Fact of the matter is when its cold or even 50 or 60 degrees you don't see the packs of black dudes hanging out on porches, streets corners, or in malls like you do when it's 90 degrees out.

 

If you have any group of uneducated,unemployed young men hanging out they are going to cause trouble, I'm just saying that in our area it's mostly blacks. Ever been to Wisconsin? You won't find groups of black people, hell, you wont even find groups of Italians.

 

I don't subscribe to the notion that we all have to sit around pretending that everyone is the same on the inside or any of that empty nonsense. Nonetheless, I still find it dubious to claim that the effect of weather on behavior patterns in these regions is due to the residents being predominantly black, as the preference to stay indoors when it's cold is pretty common across all races and walks of life.

 

Yes, you likely won't see the same congregations of black guys outside when it's cold. Cold weather also means you won't see the same number of suburban teenagers disrupting local businesses with laughable attempts at skateboarding, obnoxiously large packs of bicyclists inexplicably choosing to travel on narrow roads without shoulders, rich housewives getting plastered at 11am in the outdoor seating section of a restaurant, or Italian & pseudo-Italian 20-somethings traveling en-mass to the Jersey Shore. Some outdoor activity is more common among specific groups, but the appeal of any outdoor activity is diminished when it's cold outside.

[Babaganoosh 192]

I don't subscribe to the notion that we all have to sit around pretending that everyone is the same on the inside or any of that empty nonsense. Nonetheless, I still find it dubious to claim that the effect of weather on behavior patterns in these regions is due to the residents being predominantly black, as the preference to stay indoors when it's cold is pretty common across all races and walks of life.

 

Yes, you likely won't see the same congregations of black guys outside when it's cold. Cold weather also means you won't see the same number of suburban teenagers disrupting local businesses with laughable attempts at skateboarding, obnoxiously large packs of bicyclists inexplicably choosing to travel on narrow roads without shoulders, rich housewives getting plastered at 11am in the outdoor seating section of a restaurant, or Italian & pseudo-Italian 20-somethings traveling en-mass to the Jersey Shore. Some outdoor activity is more common among specific groups, but the appeal of any outdoor activity is diminished when it's cold outside.

 

I invite you then kind sir to come take a sighteeing tour with me in some low income areas when it's hot as hell outside. We can ride thru my old neighborhood in Asbury Park, maybe take a trip over to Newark and Camden. When its hot as hell out and these people can't afford AC they sit outside and cause trouble.

[Vlad G 345]

So based on this theory we could lower crime by just allowing the purchase of air conditioners with food coupons or government subsidies?

[Babaganoosh 192]

So based on this theory we could lower crime by just allowing the purchase of air conditioners with food coupons or government subsidies?

 

 

I don't think we should give anyone an air conditioner. Go earn it. That being said if some of these animals had a comfortable place to hang out in they wouldn't be congregating on Jeromes front stoop. Less knuckelheads out causing trouble = less crime. My theory sounds plausable since the guy who works in the hospital said that the hotter it is out the more shootings there are. I have heard that during the Superbowl there is a lot less crime. Why? because everybody is inside. Sort of the same theory.

[Zell959 40]

...these people...

...if some of these animals had a comfortable place to hang out...

 

Such broad & pejorative word choice. One might wonder if the category of individuals to which you apply the term "animals" is truly limited to only the percentage of the population actually perpetrating crime in these areas.

 

 

My theory sounds plausable since the guy who works in the hospital said that the hotter it is out the more shootings there are. I have heard that during the Superbowl there is a lot less crime. Why? because everybody is inside. Sort of the same theory.

 

Again, your "theory" consists of an already well understood weather preference held by a large cross section of the general population that you're attempting to package as a racially selective motivation for unlawful activity on the part of Newark's black population.

 

The ironic part is I don't actually disagree with the conclusion that higher temperatures drive people outside, or that this effect might be particularly prevelant in Newark's rougher areas due to air conditioning being less common. My problem is that the reasoning you tie to your conclusion is racially motivated and myopic in a way that is not necessary to arrive at such a determination.

 

Your rationale is the equivalent of telling a passenger in your car that you are currently traveling West because the black guy in front of you is headed in the same direction and all the good fried chicken places are on the West side of town, at which point your passenger begins to wonder why the direction of your travel is even in question given that you're driving directly towards a sunset.

[hd2000fxdl 422]

. That being said if some of these animals had a comfortable place to hang out in they wouldn't be congregating on Jeromes front stoop. Less knuckelheads out causing trouble = less crime. My theory sounds plausable since the guy who works in the hospital said that the hotter it is out the more shootings there are. I have heard that during the Superbowl there is a lot less crime. Why? because everybody is inside. Sort of the same theory.

 

Thats a rather large brush your painting this picture with, while there may be some underling truth in it with some folks, I do not like to see such a generalization, we as firearms owners don't like it when it's done to us, do we??

 

Harry

[Babaganoosh 192]

Go to the low income, mostly black areas and you will see how they do in fact act like animals. Don't like or agree with my opinion? Good for you, agree with it, good for you.

 

Ever go to great adventure and end up being in line for a ride among a bunch of 14-30 year old blacks? How about the movies? Not enjoyable.

 

There's a reason our jails are mostly populated with young black males. It's not because they are fine upstanding citizens.

[bbk 188]

Go to the low income, mostly black areas and you will see how they do in fact act like animals. Don't like or agree with my opinion? Good for you, agree with it, good for you.

 

Ever go to great adventure and end up being in line for a ride among a bunch of 14-30 year old blacks? How about the movies? Not enjoyable.

 

There's a reason our jails are mostly populated with young black males. It's not because they are fine upstanding citizens.

 

And the same could be said if we went to areas where the low income populace were white, or any other color for that matter. The point being made here is to not be overtly or subtlety racist by referring to every criminal as black and then substituting terms like "animal" at times. You might be stating true facts at times, but there is a way of doing it without broad-stroking that every black person in urban areas are criminals.

 

ETA: Lets get this thread back on track, or it'll be closed before someone says something they really regret.

[Krdshrk 3,878]

"All generalizations are false"

[hd2000fxdl 422]

I hear what you are saying, and like I said there are individuals that will fall into that category, but to label ALL of them?? What about all the Anti's that label you and I and everyone on the forum in a negative light.

 

As far as not knowing about what you speak, trust me, I lived in Elizabeth in the 60's and 70's, lived in southern Kali in not the best area's for a while when I was moved to correct some problem areas in the company I worked for, and I have been a Harley builder and rider for the past 27+ years, long before it became a fad, and have been friends through the whole spectrum of bikers from weekend riders to patched club members.

 

No matter what, I do what I do, they do what they do. I just take people on who they are as a person, not how they appear, I have also found some of the people that at first glance may seem questionable folks can turn out to be the best and truest people you will meet.

 

I am not totally agreeing, or totally disagreeing with you, just offering a different perspective.

 

Harry

 

 

[hd2000fxdl 422]

ETA: Lets get this thread back on track, or it'll be closed before someone says something they really regret.

 

Sorry, I have said what I wanted to say and that's the end of it for me.

 

Harry

[tony357 386]

I blame it on the rising fuel costs..

[ChrisJM981 924]

"All generalizations are false"

BS. Women can't drive for ****. Except maybe Danika Patrick.

 

Start treating criminals like criminals and maybe they will actually be afraid to go to jail.

 

No looting in Japan...

[Old School 611]

Irrespective of race, Young + Poor = Higher Crime Rates.

 

 

Poor does not = Crime...

[vladtepes 1,060]

Poor does not = Crime...

 

 

I agree.. I was raised by my grandparents.. 60+ years old each at the time of my youth.. my grandmother always ruled the family.. and my grandfather worked hard his whole life and served in the merchant marines.. I was raised with integrity and morals.. poor? we were pretty poor at times.. things were tough on them raising a grandchild they had not financially planned for... I saw things I wanted at times and most certainly could not afford... but you know what.. I never stole them.. but that is because I had responsible mature adults to raise me and instill values.. poor.. did not make me a criminal..

[Babaganoosh 192]

poor + bad parenting = crime

[Old School 611]

I agree.. I was raised by my grandparents.. 60+ years old each at the time of my youth.. my grandmother always ruled the family.. and my grandfather worked hard his whole life and served in the merchant marines.. I was raised with integrity and morals.. poor? we were pretty poor at times.. things were tough on them raising a grandchild they had not financially planned for... I saw things I wanted at times and most certainly could not afford... but you know what.. I never stole them.. but that is because I had responsible mature adults to raise me and instill values.. poor.. did not make me a criminal..

 

 

Thank you for making my point!!

[vjf915 456]

Police officers do A LOT of responding to crime, rather than preventing crime. Everyone here knows the saying "When seconds count, the police are minutes away." Patrol officers can't respond quick enough, in most cases the crime has already happened.

 

However, the "broken windows theory" does hold some water. You have an area filled with poverty, it's going to LOOK run-down. Crappy cars, crappy houses, and people act accordingly. There is a huge difference between one family being poor, and living in a poor area.

[Zell959 40]

Poor does not = Crime...

 

Going back to something previously mentioned in the thread, we have correlation but not causation. High crime areas are extremely undesirable places to live and are therefore the cheapest places to live by default. Anyone with the means to live in a better area will do so, so it is inevitable that high crime areas will only attract the poor who have no choice because they can't afford to live anywhere nicer. Being poor doesn't make them criminals, but it does mean they'll end up living in areas with a lot of them. Hence, high crime areas will come to have only poor residents, but simply being poor certainly doesn't lead to or force someone to become a criminal in and of itself.

[JimmyAGR 54]

poor + bad parenting = crime

 

I think it is "poor parenting and a sense of entitlement". Everyone thinks they deserve what the person has, earned or not.