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Ammo increase in price

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On 2/15/2021 at 7:34 PM, JohnnyB said:

I got an answer today.  Per my friend, many ammo stocks are over capacity with 5.56 and pallets are coming in all the time.

Guess its no so much if it will be available, its what will the pricing be?  Did much stocking up prior to the 2020 election and Covid, between the rebates and sales never paid more then 30 cent a round for brass cased, quite a bit at .24.  Right now at the $1 plus, not interested.

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I get in-stock alerts almost every day from TSUSA. And as a Prime Ammo customer I think they get sent to me before the general public. At least that's the way it's supposed to be.

They're pretty much of a joke to me now because no matter how fast I get to the product page, they're sold out.

But one thing I did notice. The two alerts today were on Blazer 9mm in 115 and 124 grain. And the price was still listed at .60/round. That's definitely a bargain at this point in time. So TSUSA does not appear to be gouging.

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25 minutes ago, 45Doll said:

They're pretty much of a joke to me now because no matter how fast I get to the product page, they're sold out.

 

Kinda sounds like getting concert tickets, 50k tix go on sale at 9am, at 9am all sold out and then the sales start on the ticket brokers.  at 5x the price.

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33 minutes ago, CMJeepster said:

I fully believed this since beginning of this however there are few passionate people, great mathematicians and market gurus, believe it’s either natural of created by Devils(obviously those f...ing stupid leftist)

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52 minutes ago, CMJeepster said:

Yeah the author is writing click bait. 

From the blog post. 

"During the entire war with Iraq and in Afghanistan, was there a shortage of ammunition as a result?"

The article tried to say ofcourse not, and there never would be if the army or law enforcement needed more ammo. 

The thing is there was. And there was a massive primer shortage not seen since ~1995 when there were rumors that Clinton was going to ban primer sales by having the atf class then as high explosives. 

They went from $15 a box to $35 a box in weeks due to massive shortage. And it took about two years to run its course even with ammo becoming plentiful. Even with wolf and s&b getting into the US market. 

We also saw.380 disappear for a couple of years. Things like fiocchi buying 9mm bullets from precision delta because they had run out. 

And the demand then was NOTHING compared to what we are seeing. And we certainly weren't getting the influx if new gun owners into the market. And fun buyers clearing the shelves of everything. 

One thing we didn't see was 209s going out of stock, and we are now. 

We also never saw bird shot go out of stock. The price might not have been great our your choice of brand be available, but you corks always get something on for not to much of a premium. 

You did not see people posting pics of scoring five boxes of 16 gaufe bird shot while not owning a 16 gauge shotgun. You also did not see companies posting up apologies for having a 6-8 week backlog on shipping of stuff they actually have. 

I also did not get a steam of people who aren't gun people asking me how to get guns and ammo in previous shortages. 

You know what else we didn't see runs on? Body armor. Are they in on the primer conspiracy too? 

This shit is unprecedented. There's no mystery. Every brand of primer is made by an ammo manufacturer and they are getting first dibs on their own product. 

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if i gotta be honest, that story sounds like just that./.....a story. one of those ones designed to get us all pissed off at the ammo manufacturers and turn us against them. more division. or i'm wrong.......

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5 minutes ago, 1LtCAP said:

if i gotta be honest, that story sounds like just that./.....a story. one of those ones designed to get us all pissed off at the ammo manufacturers and turn us against them. more division. or i'm wrong.......

Nah. It knows there's an audience looking for a conspiracy and clicks to be earned feeding them what they want. 

 

 

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The shortage is the result of a "perfect storm".  There are many channels in play here, and they are not necessarily cooperating or colluding, but they are working off of predictable human behavior.  They have several past incidents to work off, to predict how people will react.

The top tier ammo makers are squeezing the smaller ammo manufacturers and the end users too.  They are not going to pass up an opportunity to kill competition, that's the way it works in making hamburgers or ammo.  They are also looking to recover from the "Trump slump". 

Back in 13/14 the bottom feeders watched ammoseek and stood in line at Wally World to scoop up all the ammo they could get, just to flip it on gun bro.  This could have EASILY been controlled if retailers set limits, but they didn't, so you have to acknowledge that they were complicit in the behavior of the bottom feeders.  This time around, they have uped their game, using bots and clever software, they have refined their tactics to where they can scoop up inventory as soon as it hits the retailer's website.

This in turn created hoarders, people who were like fuck it, I'm gonna buy it all when the price is good, or they have more money than common sense and pay whatever ridiculous price is demanded  I doubt anyone who learned their lessons after Newtown, then Vegas is hurting for ammo.  But I believe they are still buying, maybe not as much, but they still buy because they are feeling panicked.

Shortages happen for various reasons.  Gas prices spiked when the Texas and Louisiana refineries got hit by hurricanes.That kind of shortage naturally drives up prices.  But the  ammo shortage we have now is a combination of natural and artificial that work as a feedback loop.  The commodity manufacturers (ie the primer makers) are absolutely manipulating manufacturing to their benefit, but the price spikes are not entirely their fault. 

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1 hour ago, Scorpio64 said:

The commodity manufacturers (ie the primer makers) are absolutely manipulating manufacturing to their benefit, but the price spikes are not entirely their fault. 

I agree with most of what you said.  Buy my understanding is that primers are sold to the retail market only if there an excess supply of primer production.

With 5 million new owners there isn't any excess.  All the primers are going to major ammunition makers to make ammo..

The few primers that are in stock or are old stock are being sold on Gunbrokers at hefty premiums.  I was looking at one auction for small rifle primers recenty and the posting said to call their store to pay by credit card or if the buyer had any questions.  So some retails stores are definetly taking taking their primers and selling them on Gunbroker.  One of my local gun shops which specializes in reloading hasn't received ANY primers in close to six months now.

The article about the ammo / primer shortage doesn't make sense.  Remington and Winchester are sitting on warehouses full of primers to drive up prices......to help their competitors make more money while primer prices are at record highs while Reminton and Winchester's "warehouses full of primers" make zero money and colletct dust in their warehouses?  I call complete nonsense on that idea.  That is the opposite of squeezing your competitors.  That's shooting yourself in the foot.

One aspect I think we aren't considering is shipping.  One of my relatives flew out to Arizona last week to install some new computer equipment that he said was worth close to $1 million dollars.  Problem is, it's a week past the arrival date and he's sitting in Arizona waiting.  The company he works for paid for 2nd day freight delivery.  It's been eight days and Fedex can't even tell them where their equipment is.  And this isn't small equipment.  He said it's at a least a standard closet size worth of equipment.  He said Fedex's reposnse is they are concentrating ALL their effors on the Covid vaccine distribution.  Everything else is SECONDARY.  That they are working in three 8 hour shifts (around the clock) just to deliver the vaccine.  I'm fairly certain other delivery companies are experiencing similiar delays due to an emphasis on delivering the vaccine. 

And ammo makers were also probably slowed down last year, just when demand was skyrocketing, by Covid.  All manufacturing processors slowed down or stopped for a while last year.

So all the above combined scenarios indeed make for a perfect storrm.  Reduced capacity of manufactorers to create supply at the same time that demand from the public for ammo was reaching record highs.  No to little excess primers to be sold to the retail market as they were all being sold or used by ammo producers.  So reduced production at same time there is a historical demand for products.  Close to a year later, a major stoppage of distributiion of product due to concentration of shipping the Covid vaccine.  A perfect storm indeed.

Hopefully things begin to return to some normality by this summer?  It sucks we can't hit the range as much as we would like but the cold hard truth is that very, very, VERY few of us HAVE to practice at the gun range.  It's a hobby or a sport for the large majority of us.  If not getting to have some fun is the largest sacrifice we have to make during these difficult times we should consider ourselves lucky.  If you still have a job, you are lucky.  If you and your family are healthy, you are lucky.  If you haven't had someone close to you die from Covid, you are lucky.  Stop bitching about ammo prices and count your blessings.  When things do return to normal we can all have some fun then.  

Stay healthy everyone and see ya at the range when I see ya.  



 

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9 hours ago, raz-0 said:

Nah. It knows there's an audience looking for a conspiracy and clicks to be earned feeding them what they want. 

 

 

maybe it's that. what i got out of that story was the same crap i see in those "testimonials" that momsdemandaction put out.......100% bs

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5 hours ago, gleninjersey said:

my understanding is that primers are sold to the retail market only if there an excess supply of primer production.

Is this the way you understand how primer makers have always operated, or just during this crunch?  Primers have never been a surplus item, the retail market for reloading components dates back 150 years.

5 hours ago, gleninjersey said:

With 5 million new owners there isn't any excess.  All the primers are going to major ammunition makers

With few exceptions, the primer makers are all ammo mfgs too.  CCI, Federal, Rem, Win, Fiocchi, so yes, they are going to channel primers to their own ammo plants to run the loading machines 24/7, decreasing the primer supply.  Why sell primers at 3 cents a pop when you can sell ammo at 3x the normal prices.  Big profits generate big dividends.

btw, the primer/ammo shortage exists only in the USA.  My friends in PR, Aus, Germany are having no trouble finding ammo or reloading components.  The prices overseas have gone up, but not even close to the extent we are experiencing in the good old US of A. 

As far as I know, there is nothing to stop foreign manufacturers from filling in the gap.  Is some left controlled bureaucracy preventing foreign suppliers from upping their imports?  If so, that would be an artificial manipulation of the market.  By it's self it would not drive up prices, but it certainly contributes to the pressure.

5 hours ago, gleninjersey said:

And ammo makers were also probably slowed down last year, just when demand was skyrocketing, by Covid.

The supply chain was definitely a factor.  Especially when you consider that a substantial portion of the precursor chemicals used in powder and primer come from China.

We may never know all the details, but there is no doubt that there are forces pushing and pulling the ammo/primer market.  It's a situation where chaotic events are being exploited, some are a natural predictable consequence, while other events have been artificially generated and it has created this feedback loop that just feeds on it's self.

 

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2 minutes ago, Scorpio64 said:

Is this the way you understand how primer makers have always operated, or just during this crunch?  Primers have never been a surplus item, the retail market for reloading components dates back 150 years.

With few exceptions, the primer makers are all ammo mfgs too.  CCI, Federal, Rem, Win, Fiocchi, so yes, they are going to channel primers to their own ammo plants to run the loading machines 24/7, decreasing the primer supply.  Why sell primers at 3 cents a pop when you can sell ammo at 3x the normal prices.  Big profits generate big dividends.

That was how my local gun store that specializes in reloading explained it to me.

Primers, made by the ammo makers, are sold to the retail market when they aren't using them to make ammo.  They are probably using all their primers to make ammo and there are no extra primers for sale.

I've seen primers listed on Canadian and New Zealand websites but they will not ship internationally.  I'm assuming the hazmat intl. fees make it cost prohibitive to ship to individual retail clients.  Those markets don't have near the demand for ammo or primers as we do I'm guessing.   So makes sense they still have product.

I think we are caught in a domestic production shortage and difficult shipping environment loop / perfect storm.  Until after shippers have delivered the vaccine and ammo makers get caught up this will be the "new norm".  Eventually production and shipping will return to normal.  Hopefully sooner rather than later.

 

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22 minutes ago, gleninjersey said:

That was how my local gun store that specializes in reloading explained it to me.

Primers, made by the ammo makers, are sold to the retail market when they aren't using them to make ammo.  They are probably using all their primers to make ammo and there are no extra primers for sale.

I've seen primers listed on Canadian and New Zealand websites but they will not ship internationally.  I'm assuming the hazmat intl. fees make it cost prohibitive to ship to individual retail clients.  Those markets don't have near the demand for ammo or primers as we do I'm guessing.   So makes sense they still have product.

I think we are caught in a domestic production shortage and difficult shipping environment loop / perfect storm.  Until after shippers have delivered the vaccine and ammo makers get caught up this will be the "new norm".  Eventually production and shipping will return to normal.  Hopefully sooner rather than later.

 

I don’t think vaccine has anything to do with this. This is few market players are fu..ing gun owners...as simple as that.

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1 hour ago, Smith said:

I don’t think vaccine has anything to do with this. This is few market players are fu..ing gun owners...as simple as that.

That makes no sense.  So a few ammo makers are intentionally holding back their product while their competitors sell at historic highs and take market share AWAY from the ones that are holding back their product and who are making no money as their product sits in warehouses and they still have to pay employees and overhead.

Go Google FedEx delays.  They say the entire industry is experiencing delays. So lower output at times of historic demand with nationwide shipping delays.  Perfect storm 

 

 

 

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9 minutes ago, gleninjersey said:

Go Google FedEx delays.  They say the entire industry is experiencing delays. So lower output at times of historic demand with nationwide shipping delays.  Perfect storm 

Honestly, I don't think shipping delays are a major factor.  Delays are mostly by days, not weeks or months.  Amazon orders are showing up on time or delayed by a day or two.  The delays are real, and a factor, but on their own not a major one.  Just another straw breaking the camel's back.

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6 minutes ago, Scorpio64 said:

Honestly, I don't think shipping delays are a major factor.  Delays are mostly by days, not weeks or months.  Amazon orders are showing up on time or delayed by a day or two.  The delays are real, and a factor, but on their own not a major one.  Just another straw breaking the camel's back.

 I mean first there was China manufacturing excuse then came excessive buyer excuse them came raw material and now shipping delay!!!! Seriously I mean any thing but those devils who is chocking this line to get their profit!!!

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2 minutes ago, Smith said:

Seriously I mean any thing but those devils who is chocking this line to get their profit!!!

You are trying to pin the shortage down to one single entity, and it simply can't be done.  Yes, there are a lot of people and companies exploiting the situation, but none are completely responsible as individual factors.  The sum total of all the factors combined, add up to more than the individual factors.  For instance, a single factor on it's own is X.  If you combine four factors, it injects a multiplier into the equation that creates a greater sum total causing exponential increases in price.

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5 minutes ago, Scorpio64 said:

Honestly, I don't think shipping delays are a major factor.  Delays are mostly by days, not weeks or months.  Amazon orders are showing up on time or delayed by a day or two.  The delays are real, and a factor, but on their own not a major one.  Just another straw breaking the camel's back.

Shipping delays are a factor. Not in the delivery to the retail channel, but in terms of keeping the machines running and fed with materials. Your bullet making machine can't run at full capacity if you have all the lead wire you need but not the copper strip for jackets or vice versa. Similarly if you have primers and bullets and brass, but the slow boat form Australia hasn't arrived with your powder, you can't make a cartridge. There are most definitely issues with delivery of these materials being delayed and arriving in spurts rather than a steady stream. The upside is since machines are getting idled on input materials, we may avoid the failures due to lack of maintenance we have seen in previous shortages. Maybe. As your idled machine has to be idled when there is labor there to maintain it. 

But I will once again list out what is contributing to this. 

1) Unprecedented demand. We literally mined nearly 1% more new gun owners per month between 03-2020 and 12-2020. The reality is that demand wasn't even and the bulk of that came in the last 3-4 months of the year. January 2021 set a new record for NICS checks and I doubt the proportion of first time buyers is going to fall off a cliff. Pandemics, riots, and a government that reminds you daily that it is either adversarial or incompetent is making people want to gun up. Red, blue, purple... they are gunning up. 

2) Lack of manpower. COVID restrictions negatively impacting production. Some places shut down and likely still haven't recovered from the backlog that created. But mostly it means that 100% capacity right now is less than it would be if they could run their facility normally. Similar manpower issues are plaguing the foreign suppliers of input materials and the shipping infrastructure. Most of our powder comes form australia, and I'm guessing their nitrating industry isn't on the list of critical businesses for their lock downs. Kind of like Italian sourced magazines have had supply issues. 

3) Remington - due to bankruptcy, they weren't making ammo or primers prior to the panic. Having a major producer of primers offline reduces surge capacity and it did so right before we got the mother of all surges. 

4) Market positioning prior to the pandemic. The reality is ammo sales were bad. Every player was looking at how to contract rather than expand and was trying like hell to draw down warehouse inventory that was a burden. $230 bras cased .223 was not a sign of a healthy market. 

5) Wal-mart. They got out of selling the kinds of ammo everyone wants. Even if the pricing terms were awful, having a massive contract like that taking steady delivery adds stability to the product pipeline. That went poof and did so in the middle of massive market slump. 

6) Base metal inventories. the mining business had a bit of a slump prior to this and also has manpower issues. But we had some mines turned off, and now we are having labor contract issues at one of the bigger copper mines. but you can go to the kitco base metals historical charts. They chart inventory as well as spot prices and we are hitting a new supply chain hell in that for some reasons. Put it this way, LME stocks 11-2019 were just below 300,000 tons on 4-2020 they were at about 300,000 tons after anormal seasonal dip in inventory. Right now they are at ~75,000 tons. Similar to October. Being near sold out is becoming the norm right now with occasional blips in large deliveries from mining contracts. NYMEX is below 65,000 tons of inventory. With low inventories, any blips in deliveries are felt immediately rather than buffered. The buffer has been gone since about 9-2020, so we are in a period of even jankier supply behavior. 

7) Broken retail supply chain and markets. We have not seen ammo manufacturers move to direct sales to try to deal with distribution issues before. We have not seen retailers buying at retail to resell. On top of that the sneaker heads fucked up everyone's time in so many sectors of online sales. They took everything wrong with ticket sales and brought it to retail. You want anything scarce? Well fuck you and pay the scalper with the bots. Online retail hasn't evolved to deal with this problem and it is affecting fitness equipment, ammo, CPUs, graphics cards, gaming consoles, etc. 

8) PRIMERS. they are always the limiting factor. There aren't enough, and it's hard to build out capacity. It's the most manual process of all the components, and bringing on line a large swath of skilled labor just isn't happening. COVID absences hit it harder, and it's not like the government is looking to hand out permits to make more explosives manufacturing even if that weren't a problem. 

9) Risk. You have manufacturers coming off the trump slump and looking at what may be the most hostile executive branch in thirty years. How much money do you dump into online  direct sales to get product to customer when you may not be able to sell online in 6 months or a year? There's lots of potential for capital investments to be shat upon and never pay back, so expansion is being done very cautiously. 

10) Consolidation. We basically have olin and vista outdoors now for primers. Every ammo manufacturer that isn't owned by them is downstream of their supply.  So if you have two companies decide a risk isn't worth it, the industry is avoiding that risk. It also means that if the industry tries new strategies to deal with this, you are picking from about 2 so you are not going to see much variance in mitigation plans. 

I'm still probably missing some stuff, but these conspiracy theorists are pushing some low-fi bullshit. 

 

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What gets me is that if primers is the problem.  Why can't i find powder?  Why has bullets used for reloading spiked as well?  The bullets I use are not used for anything other then reloading.  It all must be going somewhere, just not to the consumer level?

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1 hour ago, DaveR said:

What gets me is that if primers is the problem.  Why can't i find powder?  Why has bullets used for reloading spiked as well?  The bullets I use are not used for anything other then reloading.  It all must be going somewhere, just not to the consumer level?

Dude. Did you miss the part where I mentioned how low base metal stocks have gotten?  To go with that the price has jumped up. And you have all the "clever" people why decided this is when they'll start reloading. 

The bullets with the least silly problem are coated lead pistol bullets. The fancy rifle bullets for match grade have loads start setting up as the machines that make them can make more, cheaper bullets that use less raw material each. And those go into ammo rather than the reloader. Those businesses that cater to us don't necessarily have the ability to expand a day either. 

Of they supplied a thousand customers like you in 2019 they are probably trying to service 5-10k now. 

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23 hours ago, JohnnyB said:

Is everyone here using Discord? Primers,  powder, bullets, etc.  They all come up on Discord but you have to be fast to score them!

i don't even know whatr discord is

 

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6 minutes ago, 1LtCAP said:

i don't even know whatr discord is

 

I found it this morning and logged on. It may yet be useful, but it is the worst designed website I’ve ever seen.  And it looks like you have to watch it constantly like a stock ticker, unless there is an alerting function I haven’t found. 

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