USRifle30Cal

Weather eye

71 posts in this topic

3 hours ago, USRifle30Cal said:

So anyone looking to the Atlantic and having some thoughts as yet?

Have we learned anything?

Well, we do know that hurricane season comes every year at this time.

Does that help?

 

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We essentially have to wait until Sunday but Florence could hit from SC to NJ or recurve out to sea.  Currently the target is Delmarva.  That will probably change.    There are atmospheric pieces in play that have to get just right to send this storm out to swim with the fishes, so there is a better chance that it will make landfall.

All that aside, now is the time to get ready.   Fill up the generator gas cans if you have a gas genset.  Treat the fuel and you can use it for your snowblower if Florence whiffs right.    This is already a powerful storm, so it's no joke wherever it goes.  

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On 9/6/2018 at 8:02 AM, Screwball said:

I obviously didn’t... booked a cruise for the first week of November.

I've cruised in October and December.  No issues.  If you get Travel Insurance though, it will cover hurricanes.

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I've cruised in October and December.  No issues.  If you get Travel Insurance though, it will cover hurricanes.


I did get the insurance, but more because if I didn’t, CBP will call and say they want me to be at FLETC the day prior to the cruise.

56 days!

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3 minutes ago, Screwball said:

I did get the insurance, but more because if I didn’t, CBP will call and say they want me to be at FLETC the day prior to the cruise.

56 days! emoji41.png

 

True - Being required to work is one of the valid reasons (on some insurance policies).

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37 minutes ago, USRifle30Cal said:

The guy who called sandy is thinking more and more a NJ hit

Womp... new house has no trees nearby and a nat gas back up genny.. so maybe thatll get put to the test. Basement has a history of flooding and theres a metric f**k ton of boxes down there from the home and business so ill set up a back up sump pump ahead of time just in case when this thing gets closer if it is in fact going to hit joisey.

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My generator shit the bed last week when I went to give it it's quarterly exercise under load, so.......  we are going to get hammered.  That is, unless I fix the generator in the next 24 hours, then the storm will track elsewhere. 

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4 minutes ago, Scorpio64 said:

My generator shit the bed last week when I went to give it it's quarterly exercise under load, so.......  we are going to get hammered.  That is, unless I fix the generator in the next 24 hours, then the storm will track elsewhere. 

Good point - will do a test run this weekend.

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Looks more and more like a Hatteras and south hit.    The issue is the precip.  We probably won't get the big winds but if does come ashore as a cat 2 in Hatteras, south Jersey will see 6-10 inches of rain.   Probably half that in north Jersey.

Again, by Sunday afternoon, they will have a really good handle on it.   I'll take a cloudy breezy few days over heavy winds and massive rains.   I don't think we skip out on it though, we're getting something, it's just a matter of severity at this point.

 

 

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SEPTEMBER 6TH

Hurricane Florence currently located in the far central tropical Atlantic is continuing to move west-northwestward and will continue on this general track for the next five days.

It appears as though persistent ridging in the northwest Atlantic (part of the reason for our unseasonable heat) will rebuild next week.  This ridging will continue to direct Florence towards the East Coast and the opportunity for a weakness in this ridge being able to create a path for Florence to curve out the sea is becoming less likely by the day.

Computer modeling is converging on the idea that Florence will continue on a west-northwest track all the way to or near the US Mid-Atlantic coast in about 7 days.  Details still be be determined.  Right now, Florence looks to be a threat anywhere from North Carolina to southern New England. 

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https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-49.90,27.98,1083

I always forget the specifics of what level of winds this map is, but even without knowing anything about it at all, it is still something really cool to just look at and play with (it is zoomable and movable)  It is seemingly data/processor intensive, so be aware, let it load before making too many major zooms/movements on a slower device like a phone.

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You just send me down a rathole.  I love biscuits and gravy.  Even better, biscuits and gravy made now that still tastes good in 2058!

And it's cheaper on Amazon prime than directly from Mountain house so I can have it in 2 days.

24 minutes ago, Scorpio64 said:

I have enough of this stuff to last two...maybe three "Sandys"

file.jpg

 

 

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On 9/7/2018 at 4:09 PM, NJGF said:

Hurricane Florence

It looks like this angry lady is taking sights on the Wilmington, NC area, as per the current forecast, and will hit on Thursday as a Cat 4 storm (winds 130 - 156).

205027_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

But, besides landfall, the forecast calls for it to stall out for a handfull of days, and barely move for multiple days, which will dump TONS of rain on NC and VA. Some predictions are saying up to 2 FEET of rain (the Yellow area below).

florence-240hr-prcp-6Z-9.9.18.jpg

Too early to tell what we're going to get, but it could be a lot more rain (like we really need it after today).

 

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The ground was already soaked before Irene. That caused a lot of flooding up by me. Having JCP&L isn't very reassuring if the power goes out. I might have to scramble and pick some stuff up. I really wish I had the coin for a natural gas standby generator. 

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